Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-645
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-645
 
13 Jan 2022
13 Jan 2022
Status: this discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.

A reexamination of the dry gets drier and wet gets wetter paradigm over global land: insight from terrestrial water storage changes

Jinghua Xiong, Shenglian Guo, Jie Chen, and Jiabo Yin Jinghua Xiong et al.
  • State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China

Abstract. The “dry gets drier and wet gets wetter” (DDWW) paradigm has been widely used to summarize the expected trends of the global hydrologic cycle under climate change. However, the paradigm is challenged over land due to different measures and datasets, and is still unexplored from the perspective of terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA). Considering the essential role of TWSA in wetting and drying of the land surface, here we built upon a large ensemble of TWSA datasets including satellite-based products, global hydrological models, land surface models, and global climate models to evaluate the DDWW hypothesis during the historical (1985–2014) and future (2071–2100) periods under various scenarios. We find that 27.1 % of global land confirms the DDWW paradigm, while 22.4 % of the area shows the opposite pattern during the historical period. In the future, the DDWW paradigm is still challenged with the percentage supporting the pattern lower than 20 %, and both the DDWW-validated and DDWW-opposed proportion increase along with the intensification of emission scenarios. Our findings will provide insights and implications for global wetting and drying trends from the perspective of TWSA under climate change.

Jinghua Xiong et al.

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2021-645', Anonymous Referee #1, 07 Feb 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Shenglian Guo, 01 Mar 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on hess-2021-645', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Feb 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Shenglian Guo, 01 Mar 2022

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2021-645', Anonymous Referee #1, 07 Feb 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Shenglian Guo, 01 Mar 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on hess-2021-645', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Feb 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Shenglian Guo, 01 Mar 2022

Jinghua Xiong et al.

Jinghua Xiong et al.

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Short summary
Although the “dry gets drier and wet gets wetter” (DDWW) paradigm is widely used to describe the trends in wetting and drying globally, we show that 27.1 % of global land agrees with the paradigm, while 22.4 % shows the opposite pattern during the period 1985–2014 from the perspective of terrestrial water storage change. Similar percentages are discovered under different scenarios during the future period. Our findings will benefit the understanding of hydrological responses under climate change.