Articles | Volume 27, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023
Research article
 | 
29 Mar 2023
Research article |  | 29 Mar 2023

Sources of skill in lake temperature, discharge and ice-off seasonal forecasting tools

François Clayer, Leah Jackson-Blake, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Muhammed Shikhani, Andrew French, Tadhg Moore, James Sample, Magnus Norling, Maria-Dolores Frias, Sixto Herrera, Elvira de Eyto, Eleanor Jennings, Karsten Rinke, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé

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Cited articles

Alfieri, L., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Haiden, T., Richardson, D., and Salamon, P.: Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Europe, J. Hydrol., 517, 913–922, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.035, 2014. 
Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B., and Pappenberger, F.: Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018. 
Baracchini, T., Wüest, A., and Bouffard, D.: Meteolakes: An operational online three-dimensional forecasting platform for lake hydrodynamics, Water Res., 172, 115529, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2020.115529, 2020. 
Bazile, R., Boucher, M.-A., Perreault, L., and Leconte, R.: Verification of ECMWF System 4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5747–5762, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017, 2017. 
Blottiere, L.: The effects of wind-induced mixing on the structure and functioning of shallow freshwater lakes in a context of global change, Université Paris Saclay, https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01258843/document (last access: 23 March 2023), 2015. 
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Short summary
We assessed the predictive skill of forecasting tools over the next season for water discharge and lake temperature. Tools were forced with seasonal weather predictions; however, most of the prediction skill originates from legacy effects and not from seasonal weather predictions. Yet, when skills from seasonal weather predictions are present, additional skill comes from interaction effects. Skilful lake seasonal predictions require better weather predictions and realistic antecedent conditions.