Articles | Volume 27, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Mar 2023
Research article |
| 29 Mar 2023
| 29 Mar 2023
Sources of skill in lake temperature, discharge and ice-off seasonal forecasting tools
Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Oslo, Norway
Leah Jackson-Blake
Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Oslo, Norway
Daniel Mercado-Bettín
Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Girona, Spain
Universitat de Girona, Girona, Spain
Muhammed Shikhani
Department of Lake Research, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Magdeburg, Germany
Andrew French
Foras na Mara – Marine Institute, Furnace, Newport, Co. Mayo, Ireland
present address: School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University College Cork, Cork, T23 N63K, Ireland
Tadhg Moore
Dundalk Institute of Technology, Dundalk, Co. Louth, Ireland
present address: Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
James Sample
Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Oslo, Norway
Magnus Norling
Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Oslo, Norway
Maria-Dolores Frias
Dept. Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación (MACC). Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
Grupo de Meteorología y Computación, Universidad de Cantabria, Unidad Asociada al CSIC, Santander, Spain
Sixto Herrera
Dept. Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación (MACC). Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
Elvira de Eyto
Foras na Mara – Marine Institute, Furnace, Newport, Co. Mayo, Ireland
Eleanor Jennings
Dundalk Institute of Technology, Dundalk, Co. Louth, Ireland
Karsten Rinke
Department of Lake Research, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Magdeburg, Germany
Leon van der Linden
SA Water, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia
Rafael Marcé
Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Girona, Spain
Universitat de Girona, Girona, Spain
Data sets
WATExR dataset Leah Jackson-Blake, Daniel Mercado Bettin, and Francois Clayer https://github.com/NIVANorge/seasonal_forecasting_watexr/tree/main/paper2_Clayer_etal/datasets
Short summary
We assessed the predictive skill of forecasting tools over the next season for water discharge and lake temperature. Tools were forced with seasonal weather predictions; however, most of the prediction skill originates from legacy effects and not from seasonal weather predictions. Yet, when skills from seasonal weather predictions are present, additional skill comes from interaction effects. Skilful lake seasonal predictions require better weather predictions and realistic antecedent conditions.
We assessed the predictive skill of forecasting tools over the next season for water discharge...
