Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 27, issue 6
Articles | Volume 27, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 27, issue 6
Research article
 | 
29 Mar 2023
Research article |  | 29 Mar 2023

Sources of skill in lake temperature, discharge and ice-off seasonal forecasting tools

François Clayer, Leah Jackson-Blake, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Muhammed Shikhani, Andrew French, Tadhg Moore, James Sample, Magnus Norling, Maria-Dolores Frias, Sixto Herrera, Elvira de Eyto, Eleanor Jennings, Karsten Rinke, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé

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Short summary
We assessed the predictive skill of forecasting tools over the next season for water discharge and lake temperature. Tools were forced with seasonal weather predictions; however, most of the prediction skill originates from legacy effects and not from seasonal weather predictions. Yet, when skills from seasonal weather predictions are present, additional skill comes from interaction effects. Skilful lake seasonal predictions require better weather predictions and realistic antecedent conditions.
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