Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5891-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5891-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Dec 2020
Research article |
| 11 Dec 2020
| 11 Dec 2020
From skill to value: isolating the influence of end user behavior on seasonal forecast assessment
Matteo Giuliani
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza L. da Vinci, 32, 20133 Milan, Italy
Louise Crochemore
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Hydrology Research Unit, Folkborgsvagen 17, 601 76, Norrköping, Sweden
Ilias Pechlivanidis
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Hydrology Research Unit, Folkborgsvagen 17, 601 76, Norrköping, Sweden
Andrea Castelletti
Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza L. da Vinci, 32, 20133 Milan, Italy
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Short summary
This paper aims at quantifying the value of hydroclimatic forecasts in terms of potential economic benefit to end users in the Lake Como basin (Italy), which allows the inference of a relation between gains in forecast skill and gains in end user profit. We also explore the sensitivity of this benefit to both the forecast system setup and end user behavioral factors, showing that the estimated forecast value is potentially undermined by different levels of end user risk aversion.
This paper aims at quantifying the value of hydroclimatic forecasts in terms of potential...
