Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5891-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5891-2020
Research article
 | 
11 Dec 2020
Research article |  | 11 Dec 2020

From skill to value: isolating the influence of end user behavior on seasonal forecast assessment

Matteo Giuliani, Louise Crochemore, Ilias Pechlivanidis, and Andrea Castelletti

Related authors

Operationalizing equity in multipurpose water systems
Guang Yang, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 69–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, 2023
Short summary
Automatic design of basin-specific drought indexes for highly regulated water systems
Marta Zaniolo, Matteo Giuliani, Andrea Francesco Castelletti, and Manuel Pulido-Velazquez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2409–2424, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2409-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2409-2018, 2018
Short summary
A coupled human–natural system to assess the operational value of weather and climate services for agriculture
Yu Li, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4693–4709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4693-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4693-2017, 2017
Short summary
Using crowdsourced web content for informing water systems operations in snow-dominated catchments
Matteo Giuliani, Andrea Castelletti, Roman Fedorov, and Piero Fraternali
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 5049–5062, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-5049-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-5049-2016, 2016
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Can adaptations of crop and soil management prevent yield losses during water scarcity? A modeling study
Malve Heinz, Maria Eliza Turek, Bettina Schaefli, Andreas Keiser, and Annelie Holzkämper
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1807–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1807-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1807-2025, 2025
Short summary
Optimising ensemble streamflow predictions with bias correction and data assimilation techniques
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Amulya Chevuturi, Eugene Magee, Elizabeth Cooper, Robert H. B. Johnson, Katie Facer-Childs, and Jamie Hannaford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1587–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1587-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1587-2025, 2025
Short summary
Exploring the value of seasonal flow forecasts for drought management in South Korea
Yongshin Lee, Andres Peñuela, Francesca Pianosi, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1429–1447, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1429-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Evaluating an Earth system model from a water manager perspective
Mari R. Tye, Ming Ge, Jadwiga H. Richter, Ethan D. Gutmann, Allyson Rugg, Cindy L. Bruyère, Sue Ellen Haupt, Flavio Lehner, Rachel McCrary, Andrew J. Newman, and Andy Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1117–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1117-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1117-2025, 2025
Short summary
Creating a national urban flood dataset for China from news texts (2000–2022) at the county level
Shengnan Fu, David M. Schultz, Heng Lyu, Zhonghua Zheng, and Chi Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 767–783, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-767-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-767-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Anghileri, D., Voisin, N., Castelletti, A., Pianosi, F., Nijssen, B., and Lettenmaier, D.: Value of long-term streamflow forecasts to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated river catchments, Water Resour. Res., 52, 4209–4225, 2016. a
ARPA Lombardia: Temperature massime e minime, Precipitazione, Umidità, Vento, Radiazione Solare, available at: https://www.arpalombardia.it/Pages/Meteorologia/Osservazioni-e-Dati/Dati-in-tempo-reale.aspx, last access: June 2015. a
Block, P.: Tailoring seasonal climate forecasts for hydropower operations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1355–1368, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1355-2011, 2011. a
Boucher, M. and Ramos, M.: Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts for Hydropower Systems, Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting, pp. 1–19, 2018. a
Busoniu, L., Ernst, D., De Schutter, B., and Babuska, R.: Cross–Entropy Optimization of Control Policies With Adaptive Basis Functions, IEEE Transactions on systems, man and cybernetics – Part B: cybernetics, 41, 196–209, https://doi.org/10.1109/TSMCB.2010.2050586, 2011. a
Download
Short summary
This paper aims at quantifying the value of hydroclimatic forecasts in terms of potential economic benefit to end users in the Lake Como basin (Italy), which allows the inference of a relation between gains in forecast skill and gains in end user profit. We also explore the sensitivity of this benefit to both the forecast system setup and end user behavioral factors, showing that the estimated forecast value is potentially undermined by different levels of end user risk aversion.
Share