Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
Research article
11 Dec 2020
Research article |  | 11 Dec 2020

From skill to value: isolating the influence of end user behavior on seasonal forecast assessment

Matteo Giuliani, Louise Crochemore, Ilias Pechlivanidis, and Andrea Castelletti

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Cited articles

Anghileri, D., Voisin, N., Castelletti, A., Pianosi, F., Nijssen, B., and Lettenmaier, D.: Value of long-term streamflow forecasts to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated river catchments, Water Resour. Res., 52, 4209–4225, 2016. a
ARPA Lombardia: Temperature massime e minime, Precipitazione, Umidità, Vento, Radiazione Solare, available at:, last access: June 2015. a
Block, P.: Tailoring seasonal climate forecasts for hydropower operations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1355–1368,, 2011. a
Boucher, M. and Ramos, M.: Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts for Hydropower Systems, Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting, pp. 1–19, 2018. a
Busoniu, L., Ernst, D., De Schutter, B., and Babuska, R.: Cross–Entropy Optimization of Control Policies With Adaptive Basis Functions, IEEE Transactions on systems, man and cybernetics – Part B: cybernetics, 41, 196–209,, 2011. a
Short summary
This paper aims at quantifying the value of hydroclimatic forecasts in terms of potential economic benefit to end users in the Lake Como basin (Italy), which allows the inference of a relation between gains in forecast skill and gains in end user profit. We also explore the sensitivity of this benefit to both the forecast system setup and end user behavioral factors, showing that the estimated forecast value is potentially undermined by different levels of end user risk aversion.