Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5891-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5891-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Dec 2020
Research article |
| 11 Dec 2020
| 11 Dec 2020
From skill to value: isolating the influence of end user behavior on seasonal forecast assessment
Matteo Giuliani
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza L. da Vinci, 32, 20133 Milan, Italy
Louise Crochemore
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Hydrology Research Unit, Folkborgsvagen 17, 601 76, Norrköping, Sweden
Ilias Pechlivanidis
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Hydrology Research Unit, Folkborgsvagen 17, 601 76, Norrköping, Sweden
Andrea Castelletti
Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza L. da Vinci, 32, 20133 Milan, Italy
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Cited
27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- What Are the Key Drivers Controlling the Quality of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts? I. Pechlivanidis et al. 10.1029/2019WR026987
- Virtual energy storage gain resulting from the spatio-temporal coordination of hydropower over Europe A. Wörman et al. 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115249
- A weights combined model for middle and long-term streamflow forecasts and its value to hydropower maximization Y. Guo et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126794
- Hotspots of Predictability: Identifying Regions of High Precipitation Predictability at Seasonal Timescales From Limited Time Series Observations A. Mamalakis et al. 10.1029/2021WR031302
- Leveraging Spatial Patterns in Precipitation Forecasts Using Deep Learning to Support Regional Water Management C. Zhang et al. 10.1029/2021WR031910
- Advanced seasonal predictions for vine management based on bioclimatic indicators tailored to the wine sector C. Chou et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100343
- How do irrigation district managers deal with climate change risks? Considering experiences, tipping points, and risk normalization in northern Italy S. Ricart et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100598
- Valuing the Codesign of Streamflow Forecast and Reservoir Operation Models G. Yang et al. 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-6023
- A co-generation success story: Improving drinking water management through hydro-climate services C. Cantone et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100399
- Seasonal forecast-informed reservoir operation. Potential benefits for a water-stressed Mediterranean basin N. Crippa et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100406
- Opportunities for Robustness of Water Footprints in Electricity Generation C. Chini & J. Delorit 10.1029/2021EF002096
- A Two‐Stage Framework for Bias and Reliability Tests of Ensemble Hydroclimatic Forecasts T. Zhao et al. 10.1029/2022WR032568
- Targeting farmers’ heterogeneity to enrich climate change adaptation policy design: findings from northern Italy S. Ricart et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad4580
- Predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts: Verification metrics, diagnostic plots and forecast attributes Z. Huang & T. Zhao 10.1002/wat2.1580
- Evaluation of Earth Observations and In Situ Data Assimilation for Seasonal Hydrological Forecasting J. Musuuza et al. 10.1029/2022WR033655
- Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden M. Girons Lopez et al. 10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021
- Beyond prediction: An integrated post-hoc approach to interpret complex model in hydrometeorology F. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105762
- A State‐of‐the‐Art Review of Optimal Reservoir Control for Managing Conflicting Demands in a Changing World M. Giuliani et al. 10.1029/2021WR029927
- Forecast Families: A New Method to Systematically Evaluate the Benefits of Improving the Skill of an Existing Forecast C. Rougé et al. 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5934
- Operationalizing equity in multipurpose water systems G. Yang et al. 10.5194/hess-27-69-2023
- Sources of skill in lake temperature, discharge and ice-off seasonal forecasting tools F. Clayer et al. 10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023
- Progress and opportunities in advancing near‐term forecasting of freshwater quality M. Lofton et al. 10.1111/gcb.16590
- Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling D. Araya et al. 10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023
- Fuzzy Postprocessing to Advance the Quality of Continental Seasonal Hydrological Forecasts for River Basin Management H. Macian-Sorribes et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0266.1
- Beyond Prediction: An Integrated Post–Hoc Approach to Interpret Complex Model in Hydrometeorology F. Huang et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4167751
- Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UK A. Peñuela et al. 10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020
- Climate service derived indicators to assess the impact of climate change on local river assimilative capacity A. Ziogas et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100250
25 citations as recorded by crossref.
- What Are the Key Drivers Controlling the Quality of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts? I. Pechlivanidis et al. 10.1029/2019WR026987
- Virtual energy storage gain resulting from the spatio-temporal coordination of hydropower over Europe A. Wörman et al. 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115249
- A weights combined model for middle and long-term streamflow forecasts and its value to hydropower maximization Y. Guo et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126794
- Hotspots of Predictability: Identifying Regions of High Precipitation Predictability at Seasonal Timescales From Limited Time Series Observations A. Mamalakis et al. 10.1029/2021WR031302
- Leveraging Spatial Patterns in Precipitation Forecasts Using Deep Learning to Support Regional Water Management C. Zhang et al. 10.1029/2021WR031910
- Advanced seasonal predictions for vine management based on bioclimatic indicators tailored to the wine sector C. Chou et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100343
- How do irrigation district managers deal with climate change risks? Considering experiences, tipping points, and risk normalization in northern Italy S. Ricart et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100598
- Valuing the Codesign of Streamflow Forecast and Reservoir Operation Models G. Yang et al. 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-6023
- A co-generation success story: Improving drinking water management through hydro-climate services C. Cantone et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100399
- Seasonal forecast-informed reservoir operation. Potential benefits for a water-stressed Mediterranean basin N. Crippa et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100406
- Opportunities for Robustness of Water Footprints in Electricity Generation C. Chini & J. Delorit 10.1029/2021EF002096
- A Two‐Stage Framework for Bias and Reliability Tests of Ensemble Hydroclimatic Forecasts T. Zhao et al. 10.1029/2022WR032568
- Targeting farmers’ heterogeneity to enrich climate change adaptation policy design: findings from northern Italy S. Ricart et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad4580
- Predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts: Verification metrics, diagnostic plots and forecast attributes Z. Huang & T. Zhao 10.1002/wat2.1580
- Evaluation of Earth Observations and In Situ Data Assimilation for Seasonal Hydrological Forecasting J. Musuuza et al. 10.1029/2022WR033655
- Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden M. Girons Lopez et al. 10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021
- Beyond prediction: An integrated post-hoc approach to interpret complex model in hydrometeorology F. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105762
- A State‐of‐the‐Art Review of Optimal Reservoir Control for Managing Conflicting Demands in a Changing World M. Giuliani et al. 10.1029/2021WR029927
- Forecast Families: A New Method to Systematically Evaluate the Benefits of Improving the Skill of an Existing Forecast C. Rougé et al. 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5934
- Operationalizing equity in multipurpose water systems G. Yang et al. 10.5194/hess-27-69-2023
- Sources of skill in lake temperature, discharge and ice-off seasonal forecasting tools F. Clayer et al. 10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023
- Progress and opportunities in advancing near‐term forecasting of freshwater quality M. Lofton et al. 10.1111/gcb.16590
- Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling D. Araya et al. 10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023
- Fuzzy Postprocessing to Advance the Quality of Continental Seasonal Hydrological Forecasts for River Basin Management H. Macian-Sorribes et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0266.1
- Beyond Prediction: An Integrated Post–Hoc Approach to Interpret Complex Model in Hydrometeorology F. Huang et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4167751
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UK A. Peñuela et al. 10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020
- Climate service derived indicators to assess the impact of climate change on local river assimilative capacity A. Ziogas et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100250
Latest update: 13 Dec 2024
Short summary
This paper aims at quantifying the value of hydroclimatic forecasts in terms of potential economic benefit to end users in the Lake Como basin (Italy), which allows the inference of a relation between gains in forecast skill and gains in end user profit. We also explore the sensitivity of this benefit to both the forecast system setup and end user behavioral factors, showing that the estimated forecast value is potentially undermined by different levels of end user risk aversion.
This paper aims at quantifying the value of hydroclimatic forecasts in terms of potential...
