Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5891-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5891-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
Research article
 | 
11 Dec 2020
Research article |  | 11 Dec 2020

From skill to value: isolating the influence of end user behavior on seasonal forecast assessment

Matteo Giuliani, Louise Crochemore, Ilias Pechlivanidis, and Andrea Castelletti

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Short summary
This paper aims at quantifying the value of hydroclimatic forecasts in terms of potential economic benefit to end users in the Lake Como basin (Italy), which allows the inference of a relation between gains in forecast skill and gains in end user profit. We also explore the sensitivity of this benefit to both the forecast system setup and end user behavioral factors, showing that the estimated forecast value is potentially undermined by different levels of end user risk aversion.
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