Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
Research article
11 Dec 2020
Research article |  | 11 Dec 2020

From skill to value: isolating the influence of end user behavior on seasonal forecast assessment

Matteo Giuliani, Louise Crochemore, Ilias Pechlivanidis, and Andrea Castelletti

Data sets

Seasonal Forecasts Europe SMHI

Temperature massime e minime, Precipitazione, Umidità, Vento, Radiazione Solare ARPA Lombardia

Model code and software

LakeComo M. Giuliani and Environmental Intellingence Lab

Short summary
This paper aims at quantifying the value of hydroclimatic forecasts in terms of potential economic benefit to end users in the Lake Como basin (Italy), which allows the inference of a relation between gains in forecast skill and gains in end user profit. We also explore the sensitivity of this benefit to both the forecast system setup and end user behavioral factors, showing that the estimated forecast value is potentially undermined by different levels of end user risk aversion.