Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5799-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5799-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Dec 2020
Research article |
| 07 Dec 2020
| 07 Dec 2020
Intensification characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes in the Asian monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming
Jeong-Bae Kim
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University,
Seoul, 05006, Korea
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University,
Seoul, 05006, Korea
Related authors
No articles found.
Thanh Le, Seon-Ho Kim, Jae-Yeong Heo, and Deg-Hyo Bae
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6555–6566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the links between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropospheric ozone (O3) using model data. Our results show that ENSO impacts on tropospheric O3 are mainly found over oceans, while the signature of ENSO over continents is largely unclear. These impacts in the midlatitude regions over the Southern Hemisphere may be more significant than previously known. The responses of O3 to ENSO are weak in the middle troposphere and stronger in the upper and lower troposphere.
Thanh Le and Deg-Hyo Bae
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-1, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-1, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the links between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Tropical Atlantic mode (NTA) using outputs from model simulations and reanalysis data. Our results suggest robust effects of ENSO on NTA and provide insights on the unstable impacts of NTA on ENSO. Our results show that the models may underestimate the impacts of NTA on ENSO, implying that better representation of NTA variability and NTA-ENSO links in the models may improve the predictability of ENSO variations.
Thanh Le and Deg-Hyo Bae
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5253–5263, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5253-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5253-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we assess the response of dust activities to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the 1850–2014 period using climate model outputs. Our results show that ENSO is an important driver of dust deposition and dust transportation with high consensus across models. However, the results indicate that ENSO is unlikely to show causal impacts on dust emissions of major dust sources. This study allows us to obtain further understanding of the linkages between ENSO and dust cycle at a global scale.
Thanh Le and Deg-Hyo Bae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1131–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1131-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1131-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Here we investigate the response of global evaporation to main climate modes, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results indicate that ENSO is an important driver of evaporation for many regions, while the impacts of NAO and IOD are substantial. This study allows us to obtain insight about the predictability of evaporation and, hence, may help to improve the early-warning systems of climate extremes.
Aida Jabbari, Jae-Min So, and Deg-Hyo Bae
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-447, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-447, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
In accuracy assessment of the hydro-meteorological models, the capability of the WRF model is evaluated for producing the real-time flood forecasting in Imjin basin. The variation of the spatial and temporal resolution and forecast lead time and their effects on the flood forecasting are quantified in this study. moreover the precipitation assessment for the point and catchment scale had higher accuracy for the catchment scale however the precipitation is underestimated for all the events.
Deg-Hyo Bae, Moon-Hwan Lee, and Sung-Keun Moon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 171–183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-171-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-171-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, flash floods at some regions have occurred with very short duration less than 1 h. It is necessary to develop the criteria for deciding intuitively the flash flood occurrence with short duration. This article proposes quantitative criteria for flash flood warning that can be used to rapidly assess flash flood occurrence based on only rainfall estimates. The key advantage of this method is possible to issue flash flood warnings without running the entire hydrometeorological model.
K. Chon, Y. Kim, D. H. Bae, and J. Cho
Drink. Water Eng. Sci., 8, 35–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/dwes-8-35-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/dwes-8-35-2015, 2015
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products for hydrological modelling: impact assessment of the cellular-automata-based methodology in the Tanaro River basin in Italy
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
The agricultural expansion in South America's Dry Chaco: regional hydroclimate effects
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and variable infiltration capacity
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Multi-objective calibration and evaluation of the ORCHIDEE land surface model over France at high resolution
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change on the southern Tibetan Plateau
FROSTBYTE: A reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
A semi-parametric hourly space–time weather generator
A principal-component-based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) statistics
Accounting for precipitation asymmetry in a multiplicative random cascade disaggregation model
Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely-sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model
Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
A genetic particle filter scheme for univariate snow cover assimilation into Noah-MP model across snow climates
Investigating the response of land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks to spatial representation of irrigation in a coupled modeling framework
Validation of precipitation reanalysis products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Slovenia
Statistical post-processing of precipitation forecasts using circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks
Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US
Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models
Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process models: a case study in the Upper Colorado River basin
Local moisture recycling across the globe
How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation?
Regionalisation of rainfall depth–duration–frequency curves with different data types in Germany
The suitability of a seasonal ensemble hybrid framework including data-driven approaches for hydrological forecasting
Continuous streamflow prediction in ungauged basins: long short-term memory neural networks clearly outperform traditional hydrological models
Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System
Spatial distribution of oceanic moisture contributions to precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau
Ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in Narmada River Basin, India
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France
Linking the complementary evaporation relationship with the Budyko framework for ungauged areas in Australia
Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer worlds – how anthropogenic aerosols change the story
Pan evaporation is increased by submerged macrophytes
Evaluation of water flux predictive models developed using eddy-covariance observations and machine learning: a meta-analysis
Characterizing basin-scale precipitation gradients in the Third Pole region using a high-resolution atmospheric simulation-based dataset
A comparison of hydrological models with different level of complexity in Alpine regions in the context of climate change
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-445, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a thorough historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Amy Charlotte Green, Chris G. Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-26, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well at generating realistic weather radar images visually, for a large range of event types.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-11, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-11, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings revealed runoff generation is dominated by rainfall runoff in the YZ, and the largest glacier runoff contribution is in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff trends indicate an increase in the NX but a decrease in the NX-BXK for 1971–2020, due to contrasting precipitation changes. Total runoff across the sub-basins will consistently increase through the 21st century, mostly resulting from increased rainfall runoff.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3040, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river flows months in advance is crucial for many water sectors and society. In N. America, snowmelt is a key driver of river flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flows months ahead in N. American snow-fed rivers. Variations in predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future river flow predictability amid a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2041, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely-sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach which is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, and to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212), as well as to remotely-sensed satellite estimates.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Yuanhong You, Chunlin Huang, Zuo Wang, Jinliang Hou, Ying Zhang, and Peipei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2919–2933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to investigate the performance of a genetic particle filter which was used as a snow data assimilation scheme across different snow climates. The results demonstrated that the genetic algorithm can effectively solve the problem of particle degeneration and impoverishment in a particle filter algorithm. The system has revealed a low sensitivity to the particle number in point-scale application of the ground snow depth measurement.
Patricia Lawston-Parker, Joseph A. Santanello Jr., and Nathaniel W. Chaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2787–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation has been shown to impact weather and climate, but it has only recently been considered in prediction models. Prescribing where (globally) irrigation takes place is important to accurately simulate its impacts on temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Here, we evaluated three different irrigation maps in a weather model and found that the extent and intensity of irrigated areas and their boundaries are important drivers of weather impacts resulting from human practices.
Marcos Julien Alexopoulos, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Patrick Nistahl, Mojca Šraj, and Nejc Bezak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2559–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For rainfall-runoff simulation of a certain area, hydrological models are used, which requires precipitation data and temperature data as input. Since these are often not available as observations, we have tested simulation results from atmospheric models. ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 were tested for Slovenian catchments. Both lead to good simulations results. Their usage enables the use of rainfall-runoff simulation in unobserved catchments as a requisite for, e.g., flood protection measures.
Tuantuan Zhang, Zhongmin Liang, Wentao Li, Jun Wang, Yiming Hu, and Binquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1945–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks to correct raw daily forecast precipitation by combining large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information. We find that the method not only captures the westward and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high but also shows substantially higher bias-correction capabilities than existing standard methods in terms of spatial scale, timescale, and intensity.
Zeyu Xue, Paul Ullrich, and Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1909–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments and varying the perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables to provide a guideline for this increasingly popular regional modeling method. Overall, we recommend PGW experiments be performed with perturbations to temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the gridpoint scale, depending on the research question.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel Feldman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1771–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this study is to understand the uncertainties of different modeling configurations for simulating hydroclimate responses in the mountainous watershed. We run a group of climate models with various configurations and evaluate them against various reference datasets. This paper integrates a climate model and a hydrology model to have a full understanding of the atmospheric-through-bedrock hydrological processes.
Jolanda J. E. Theeuwen, Arie Staal, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, Bert V. M. Hamelers, and Stefan C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1457–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation changes over land affect rainfall over land via moisture recycling. We calculated the local moisture recycling ratio globally, which describes the fraction of evaporated moisture that rains out within approx. 50 km of its source location. This recycling peaks in summer as well as over wet and elevated regions. Local moisture recycling provides insight into the local impacts of evaporation changes and can be used to study the influence of regreening on local rainfall.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Bora Shehu, Winfried Willems, Henrike Stockel, Luisa-Bianca Thiele, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1109–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall volumes at varying duration and frequencies are required for many engineering water works. These design volumes have been provided by KOSTRA-DWD in Germany. However, a revision of the KOSTRA-DWD is required, in order to consider the recent state-of-the-art and additional data. For this purpose, in our study, we investigate different methods and data available to achieve the best procedure that will serve as a basis for the development of the new KOSTRA-DWD product.
Sandra M. Hauswirth, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Vincent Beijk, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 501–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts on water availability are important for water managers. We test a hybrid framework based on machine learning models and global input data for generating seasonal forecasts. Our evaluation shows that our discharge and surface water level predictions are able to create reliable forecasts up to 2 months ahead. We show that a hybrid framework, developed for local purposes and combined and rerun with global data, can create valuable information similar to large-scale forecasting models.
Richard Arsenault, Jean-Luc Martel, Frédéric Brunet, François Brissette, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Hannah Cloke, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Real-time river discharge forecasts and reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) have been made publicly available, together with an evaluation of forecast skill at the global scale. Results show that GloFAS is skillful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1–3 d) and medium range (5–15 d) and skillful in over 80 % of catchments in the extended lead time (16–30 d). Skill is summarised in a new layer on the GloFAS Web Map Viewer to aid decision-making.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Ru Huang, Denghua Yan, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6413–6426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Spatial quantification of oceanic moisture contribution to the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) contributes to the reliable assessments of regional water resources and the interpretation of paleo archives in the region. Based on atmospheric reanalysis datasets and numerical moisture tracking, this work reveals the previously underestimated oceanic moisture contributions brought by the westerlies in winter and the overestimated moisture contributions from the Indian Ocean in summer.
Urmin Vegad and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6361–6378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Floods cause enormous damage to infrastructure and agriculture in India. However, the utility of ensemble meteorological forecast for hydrologic prediction has not been examined. Moreover, Indian river basins have a considerable influence of reservoirs that alter the natural flow variability. We developed a hydrologic modelling-based streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in India.
Camille Labrousse, Wolfgang Ludwig, Sébastien Pinel, Mahrez Sadaoui, Andrea Toreti, and Guillaume Lacquement
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6055–6071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The interest of this study is to demonstrate that we identify two zones in our study area whose hydroclimatic behaviours are uneven. By investigating relationships between the hydroclimatic conditions in both clusters for past observations with the overall atmospheric functioning, we show that the inequalities are mainly driven by a different control of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the area.
Daeha Kim, Minha Choi, and Jong Ahn Chun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5955–5969, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed a practical method that predicts the evaporation rates on land surfaces (ET) where only atmospheric data are available. Using a traditional equation that describes partitioning of precipitation into ET and streamflow, we could approximately identify the key parameter of the predicting formulation based on land–atmosphere interactions. The simple method conditioned by local climates outperformed sophisticated models in reproducing water-balance estimates across Australia.
Ruksana H. Rimi, Karsten Haustein, Emily J. Barbour, Sarah N. Sparrow, Sihan Li, David C. H. Wallom, and Myles R. Allen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5737–5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall events are major concerns in Bangladesh. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and damage nearly harvestable crops in pre-monsoon season. While in monsoon season, the impacts can range from widespread agricultural loss, huge property damage, to loss of lives and livelihoods. This paper assesses the role of anthropogenic climate change drivers in changing risks of extreme rainfall events during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons at local sub-regional-scale within Bangladesh.
Brigitta Simon-Gáspár, Gábor Soós, and Angela Anda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4741–4756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Due to climate change, it is extremely important to determine evaporation as accurately as possible. In nature, there are sediments and macrophytes in the open waters; thus, one of the aims was to investigate their effect on evaporation. The second aim of this paper was to estimate daily evaporation by using different models, which, according to results, have high priority in the evaporation prediction. Water management can obtain useful information from the results of the current research.
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Olaf Hellwich, Mingjuan Xie, Chen Zhang, Yu Zhang, Yuangang Wang, Xiuliang Yuan, Xiaofei Ma, Wenqiang Zhang, Alishir Kurban, Philippe De Maeyer, and Tim Van de Voorde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4603–4618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There have been many machine learning simulation studies based on eddy-covariance observations for water flux and evapotranspiration. We performed a meta-analysis of such studies to clarify the impact of different algorithms and predictors, etc., on the reported prediction accuracy. It can, to some extent, guide future global water flux modeling studies and help us better understand the terrestrial ecosystem water cycle.
Yaozhi Jiang, Kun Yang, Hua Yang, Hui Lu, Yingying Chen, Xu Zhou, Jing Sun, Yuan Yang, and Yan Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4587–4601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our study quantified the altitudinal precipitation gradients (PGs) over the Third Pole (TP). Most sub-basins in the TP have positive PGs, and negative PGs are found in the Himalayas, the Hengduan Mountains and the western Kunlun. PGs are positively correlated with wind speed but negatively correlated with relative humidity. In addition, PGs tend to be positive at smaller spatial scales compared to those at larger scales. The findings can assist precipitation interpolation in the data-sparse TP.
Francesca Carletti, Adrien Michel, Francesca Casale, Alice Burri, Daniele Bocchiola, Mathias Bavay, and Michael Lehning
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3447–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
High Alpine catchments are dominated by the melting of seasonal snow cover and glaciers, whose amount and seasonality are expected to be modified by climate change. This paper compares the performances of different types of models in reproducing discharge among two catchments under present conditions and climate change. Despite many advantages, the use of simpler models for climate change applications is controversial as they do not fully represent the physics of the involved processes.
Cited articles
Adam, J. C. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Adjustment of global gridded precipitation for systematic bias, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 1–14,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002499, 2003.
Adam, J. C., Clark, E. A., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Wood, E. F.: Correction of
Global Precipitation Products for Orographic Effects, J. Climate, 19, 15–38, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3604.1, 2006.
Bae, D. H., Jung, I. W., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Hydrologic Uncertainties in
Climate Change from IPCC AR4 GCM Simulation of the Chungju Basin, Korea,
J. Hydrol., 401, 90–105, 2011.
Bae, D.-H., Rahman, M., Koike, T., and Ahmad, B.: Climate change impact
assessment on the Asia-Pacific water resources under AWCI/GEOSS, Final Report of the APN ARCP Project: ARCP2011-05CMY-Bae, Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research, available at: https://www.apn-gcr.org/project/climate-change-impact-assessment-on-the-asia-pacific-water (last access: December 2020), 2013.
Bae, D. H., Koike, T., Awan, J. A., Lee, M. H., and Son, K. H.: Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources and Susceptible Zones Identification in the Asian Monsoon Region, Water Resour. Manage., 29, 5377–5393, 2015.
Beck, H. E., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., de Roo, A., Miralles, D. G., McVicar, T. R., Schellekens, J., and Bruijnzeel, L. A.: Global-scale regionalization of hydrologic model parameters. Water Resour. Res., 52, 3599–3622,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR018247, 2016.
Bhowmick, M., Sahany, S., and Mishra, S. K.: Projected precipitation changes
over the south Asian region for every 0.5 ∘C increase in global
warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 054005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1271, 2019.
Chen, J., Gao, C., Zeng, X., Xiong, M., Wang, Y., Jing, C., Krysanova, V.,
Huang, J., Zhao, N., and Su, B.: Assessing changes of river discharge under
global warming of 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin: Approach by using multiple-GCMs and hydrological
models, Quatern. Int., 453, 63–73, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2017.01.017, 2017.
Chen, S., Zhi-Hong, J., Wei-Lin, C., and Li, L.: Changes in temperature extremes over China under 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C global warming
targets, Adv. Clim. Change Res., 9, 120–129, 2018.
Chen, S., Wu, R., Chen, W., and Song, L.: Projected changes in mid–high-latitude Eurasian climate during boreal spring in a 1.5 and
2 ∘C warmer world, Int. J. Climatol., 40, 1851–1863, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6306, 2020.
Chevuturi, A., Klingaman, N. P., Turner, A. G., and Hannah, S.: Projected Changes in the Asian-Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5 ∘C and 2.0 ∘C Global-Warming Scenarios, Earth's Future, 6, 339–358, 2018.
Diedhiou, A., Bichet, A., Wartenburge, R., Seneviratne, S. I., Rowell, D. P.,
Sylla, M. B., Diallo, I., Todzo, S., Touré, N. E., Camara, M., Ngatchah,
B. N., Kane, N. A., Tall, L., and Affholder, F.: Changes in climate extremes
over West and Central Africa at 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C global warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 065020, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac3e5, 2018.
Donnelly, C., Greuell, W., Andersson, J., Gerten, D., Pisacane, G., Roudier, P., and Ludwig, F.: Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level, Climatic Change, 143, 13–26, 2017.
Dong, S., Aguilar, E., Zhang, X., Peterson, T. C., Song, L., and Zhang, Y.:
Observed changes in temperature extremes over Asia and their attribution,
Clim. Dynam., 51, 339–353, 2018.
Dosio, A. and Fischer, E. M.: Will half a degree make a difference? Robust
projections of indices of mean and extreme climate in Europe under 1.5 ∘C, 2 ∘C, and 3 ∘C global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 935–944, 2018.
FAO: World Reference Base for Soil Resources, World Soil Resources Reports 84, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations – FAO, Rome, 1998.
Fernandez, J. P. R., Franchito, S. H., Rao, V. B., and Llopart, M.: Changes in Koppen–Trewartha climate classification over South America from RegCM4
projections, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 18, 427–434, 2017.
Ge, F., Zhu, S., Peng, T., Zhao, Y., Sielmann, F., Fraedrich, K., Zhi, X.,
Liu, X., Tang, W., and Ji, L.: Risks of precipitation extremes over Southeast
Asia: does 1.5 ∘C or 2 ∘C global warming make a difference?, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 044015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaff7e, 2019.
Giorgi, F., Coppola, E., and Raffaele, F.: A consistent picture of the
hydroclimatic response to global warming from multiple indices: Models and
observations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 11695–11708, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022238, 2014.
Guo, X., Huang, J., Luo, Y., Zhao, Z., and Xu, Y.: Projection of precipitation extremes for eight global warming targets by 17 CMIP5 models,
Nat. Hazards, 84, 2299–2319, 2016.
Hansen, M. C., Defries, R. S., Townshend, J. R. G., and Sohlberg, R.: Global land cover classification at 1 km spatial resolution using a classification tree approach, Int. J. Remote Sens., 21, 1331–1364, https://doi.org/10.1080/014311600210209, 2000.
Harrington, L. J. and Otto, F. E. L.: Changing population dynamics and uneven
temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat
extremes under 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C of warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 034011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa99, 2018.
Im, E. S., Choi, Y. W., and Ahn, J. B.: Robust intensification of hydroclimatic intensity over East Asia from multi-model ensemble regional projections, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 129, 1241–1254, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1846-2, 2017.
IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, in: Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, NY, 2013.
IPCC: Global warming of 1.5 ∘C, in: An IPCC Special Report on the
impacts of global warming of 1.5 ∘C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, edited by:
Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H. O., Roberts, D., Skea, J., Shukla, P. R., Pirani, A., Moufouma-Okia, W., Péan, C., Pidcock, R., Connors, S., Matthews, J. B. R., Chen, Y., Zhou, X., Gomis, M. I., Lonnoy, E., Maycock, T., Tignor, M., and Waterfield, T., World Meteorological Organization Technical Document, Geneva, Switzerland, in press, 2018.
Jacob, D., Kotova, L., Teichmann, C., Sobolowski, S. P., Vautard, R., Donnelly, C., Koutroulis, A. G., Grillakis, M. G., Tsanis, I. K., Damm, A.,
Sakalli, A., and van Vliet, M. T. H.: Climate Impacts in Europe Under
+1.5 ∘C Global Warming, Earth's Future, 6, 264–285, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000710, 2018.
James, R., Washington, R., Schleussner, C.-F., Rogelj, J., and Conway, D.:
Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying
regional climate responses to global warming targets, WIREs Clim. Change, 8, e457, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.457, 2017.
Jiao, Y. and Yuan, X.: More severe hydrological drought events emerge at different warming levels over the Wudinghe watershed in northern China, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 621–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-621-2019, 2019.
Jung, I. W., Bae, D. H., and Lee, B. J.: Possible change in Korean streamflow
seasonality based on multi-model climate projections, Hydrol. Process., 27, 1033–1045, 2013.
Kharin, V. V., Flato, G. M., Zhang, X., Gillett, N. P., Zwiers, F., and Anderson, K. J.: Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5 ∘C to 2.0 ∘C Depending on Rarity, Earth's Future, 6, 704–715, 2018.
Kim, J.-B., Im, E.-S. and Bae, D.-H.: Intensified hydroclimatic regime in
Korean basins under 1.5 and 2 ∘C global warming, Int. J. Climatol., 40, 1965–1978, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6311, 2020.
King, A. D. and Karoly, D.: Climate extremes in Europe at 1.5 and 2 degrees
of global warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 114031, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8e2c, 2017.
Köppen, W.: Das geographische System der Klimate, in: Handbuch der Klimato logie, edited by: Köppen, W. and Geiger, R., Gebrüder Borntraeger, Berlin, 1936.
Laloyaux, P., de Boisseson, E., Balmaseda, M., Bidlot, J. R., Broennimann, S., Buizza, R., Dalhgren, P., Dee, D., Haimberger, L., Hersbach, H., Kosaka,
Y., Martin, M., Poli, P., Rayner, N., Rustemeier, E., and Schepers, D.:
CERA-20C: A coupled reanalysis of the twentieth century, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 10, 1172–1195, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001273, 2018.
Lee, M.-H. and Bae, D.-H.: Climate change impact assessment on green and blue water over Asian monsoon region, Water Resour. Manage., 29, 2407–2427, 2015.
Li, D., Zhou, T., Zou, L., Zhang, W., and Zhang, L.: Extreme High-Temperature
Events Over East Asia in 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C Warmer Futures:
Analysis of NCAR CESM Low-Warming Experiments, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 1541–1550, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076753, 2018.
Liang, X., Lettenmaier, D. P., Wood, E. F., and Burges, S. J.: A simple
hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 14415–14428, 1994.
Liang, X., Wood, E. F., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Surface soil moisture
parameterization of the VIC-2L model: Evaluation and modifications, Global
Planet. Change, 13, 195–206, 1996.
Liu, J., Xu, H., Luo, J. J., and Deng, J.: Distinctive Evolutions of Eurasian
Warming and Extreme Events Before and After Global Warming Would Stabilize at 1.5 ∘C, Earth's Future, 7, 151–161, 2019.
MacDonald, M. K., Stadnyk, T. A., Déry, S. J., Braun, M., Gustafsson, D.,
Isberg, K., and Arheimer, B.: Impacts of 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C warming on
pan-Arctic river discharge into the Hudson Bay Complex through 2070, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 7561–7570, 2018.
Marx, A., Kumar, R., Thober, S., Rakovec, O., Wanders, N., Zink, M., Wood, E. F., Pan, M., Sheffield, J., and Samaniego, L.: Climate change alters low flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 ∘C, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1017–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1017-2018, 2018.
McSweeney, C. F., Jones, R. G., Lee, R. W., and Rowell, D. P.: Selecting CMIP5 GCMs for downscaling over multiple regions, Clim. Dynam., 44, 3237–3260, 2015.
Nandintsetseg, B., Greene, J. C., and Goulden, C. E.: Trends in extreme daily
precipitation and temperature near Lake Hovsgol, Mongolia, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 341–347, 2007.
Nijssen, B., O'Donnell, G. M., Lettenmaier, D. P., Lohmann, D., and Wood, E. F.: Predicting the discharge of global rivers, J. Climate, 14, 3307–3323, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3307:PTDOGR>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Nkemelang, T., New, M., and Zaroug, M.: Temperature and precipitation extremes under current, 1.5 ∘C and 2.0 ∘C global warming above pre-industrial levels over Botswana, and implications for climate change vulnerability, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 065016,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac2f8, 2018.
Nyunt, C.T., Yamamoto, H., Yamamoto, A., and Koike, T.: Application of
biascorrection and downscaling method to Kalu Ganga basin in Sri Lanka, Annu. J. Hydraul. Eng.-JSCE, 56, 115–120, 2012.
O'Gorman, P. A.: Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 1, 49–59, 2015.
Paltan, H., Allen, M., Haustein, K., Fuldauer, L., and Dadson, L.: Global
implications of 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C warmer worlds on extreme
river flows, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 094003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad985, 2018.
Parajka, J., Viglione, A., Rogger, M., Salinas, J. L., Sivapalan, M., and Blöschl, G.: Comparative assessment of predictions in ungauged basins – Part 1: Runoff-hydrograph studies, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1783–1795, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1783-2013, 2013.
Reiter, P., Gutjahr, O., Schefczyk, L., Heinemann, G., and Casper, M.: Does applying quantile mapping to subsamples improve the bias correction of daily precipitation?, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 1623–1633, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5283, 2017.
Saeed, F., Bethke, I., Fischer, E., Legutke, S., Shiogama, H., Stone, D. A.,
and Schleussner, C.-F.: Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at
1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 064024, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab797, 2018.
Sheffield, J., Andreadis, K., Wood, E., and Lettenmaier, D.: Global and
continental drought in the second half of the twentieth century: severity-area-duration analysis and temporal variability of large-scale events, J. Climate, 22, 1962–1981, 2009.
Sui, Y., Lang, X., and Jiang, D.: Projected signals in climate extremes over
China associated with a 2 ∘C global warming under two RCP scenarios, Int. J. Climatol., 38, e678–e697, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5399, 2018.
Sylla, M. B., Faye, A., Giorgi, F., Diedhiou, A., and Kunstmann, H.: Projected heat stress under 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C global warming
scenarios creates unprecedented discomfort for humans in West Africa, Earth's Future, 6, 1029–1044, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000873, 2018.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, 2012.
Tebaldi, C., Arblaster, J. M., and Knutti, R.: Mapping model agreement on
future climate projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L23701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049863, 2011.
Tegegne, G., Melesse, A. M., and Worqlul, A. W.: Development of multi-model
ensemble approach for enhanced assessment of impacts of climate change on
climate extremes, Sci. Total Environ., 704, 12321–12330,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135357, 2020.
Thomas, V. and Lopez, R.: Global increase in Climate-Related Disasters, ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 466, Asian Development Bank, Philippines, 38 pp., 2015.
Thomas, V., Albert, J. R. G., and Perez, R. T.: Climate-Related Disasters in
Asia and the Pacific, ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 358, Asian
Development Bank, Philippines, 38 pp., 2013.
Thomas, V., Albert, J. R. G., and Hepburn, C.: Contributors to the frequency
of intense climate disasters in Asia-Pacific countries, Climatic Change, 126, 381–398, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1232-y, 2014.
Thomson, A. M., Calvin, K. V., Smith, S. J., Kyle, G. P., Vloke, A., Patel, P., Delgado-Arias, S., Bond-Lamberty, B., Wise, M. A., Clarke, L. E., and Edmond, J. A.: RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100, Climatic Change, 109, 77–94, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4, 2011.
Trenberth, K. E.: Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the
hydrological cycle with climate change, Climatic Change, 42, 327–339, 1999.
Trenberth, K. E.: Changes in precipitation with climate change, Clim. Res., 47, 123–138, 2011.
UNFCCC: Report of the Conference of the Parties on its twenty-first session,
held in Paris from 30 November to 13 December 2015. Part two: Action taken
by the Conference of the Parties at its twenty-first session, United
Nations, FCCC/CP/2015/10/Add.1, available at:
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/10a01.pdf (last access: December 2020), 2015.
United States Geological Survey's Earth Resources Observation and Science (USGS EROS) Center: GTOPO30, United States Geological Survey (USGS), available at: https://doi.org/10.5066/F7DF6PQS, 1996.
Van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard,
K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., and Rose, S. K.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change, 109,
5–31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011.
Wang, X., Jiang, D., and Lang, X.: Extreme temperature and precipitation
changes associated with four degree of global warming above pre-industrial
levels, Int. J. Climatol., 39, 1822–1838, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5956, 2019.
Weber, T., Haensler, A., Rechid, D., Pfeifer, S., Eggert, B., and Jacob, D.:
Analyzing Regional Climate Change in Africa in a 1.5, 2, and 3 ∘C
Global Warming World, Earth's Future, 6, 643–655, 2018.
Wen, S., Wang, A., Tao, H., Malik, K., Huang, J., Zhai, J., Jing, C., Rasul,
G., and Su, B.: Population exposed to drought under the 1.5 ∘C and
2.0 ∘C warming in the Indus River Basin, Atmos. Res., 218, 296–305, 2019.
Xie, Z., Yuan, F., Duan, Q., Zheng, J., Liang, M., and Chen, F.: Regional Parameter Estimation of the VIC Land Surface Model: Methodology and Application to River Basins in China, J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 447–468, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM568.1, 2007.
Xu, Y., Gao, X., and Giorgi, F. J.: Upgrades to the reliability ensemble averaging method for producing probabilistic climate-change projections, Clim. Res., 41, 2375–2385, 2010.
Yatagai, A., Kamiguchi, K., Arakawa, O., Hamada, A., Yasutomi, N., and Kitoh, A.: APHRODITE: Constracting a Long-Term Daily Gridded Precipitation Dataset for Asia Based on a Dense Network of Rain Gauges, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 1401–1415, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00122.1, 2012.
Zhang, Y., You, Q., Mao, G., Chen, C., and Ye, Z.: Short-term concurrent
drought and heatwave frequency with 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C global warming in humid subtropical basins: a case study in the Gan River Basin, China, Clim. Dynam., 52, 4621–4641, 2019.
Zhao, Y., Li, Z., Cai, S., and Wang, H.: Characteristics of extreme precipitation and runoff in the Xijiang River Basin at global warming of 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C, Nat. Hazards, 101, 669–688, 2020.
Zhou, M., Zhou, G., Lv, X., Zhou, L., and Ji, Y.: Global warming from 1.5 to
2 ∘C will lead to increase in precipitation intensity in China, Int. J. Climatol., 39, 2351–2361, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5956, 2018.
Short summary
We examine changes in hydroclimatic extremes for different climate zones in Asia in response to 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming. Our results indicate consistent changes in temperature extremes and high precipitation (and maximum runoff) extremes across Asia. Extra 0.5 °C warming will lead to enhanced regional hydroclimatic extremes, especially in cold (and polar) climate zones. However, hydroclimatic sensitivities can differ based on regional climate characteristics and types of extreme variables.
We examine changes in hydroclimatic extremes for different climate zones in Asia in response to...
