Articles | Volume 23, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4955-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4955-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Dec 2019
Research article |
| 04 Dec 2019
| 04 Dec 2019
Assessing water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region under projected climate change
Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo
Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul, CxP 549, Campo Grande, MS, 79070-900, Brazil
Paulo Tarso Oliveira
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul, CxP 549, Campo Grande, MS, 79070-900, Brazil
Dulce Buchala Bicca Rodrigues
Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul, CxP 549, Campo Grande, MS, 79070-900, Brazil
Hoshin Vijai Gupta
Department of Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
Related authors
Gabriela C. Gesualdo, Marcos R. Benso, Fabrício A. R. Navarro, Luis M. Castillo, and Eduardo M. Mendiondo
Proc. IAHS, 385, 117–120, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated indexed insurance for a water utility responsible for providing water to 7.2 million people in a metropolitan region. According to our findings, an annual amount (premium) of USD 0.43, 0.87, and 1.73 should be charged per person to obtain drought coverage for three, six, and twelve months. The premium fee can be implemented in the water bills as a new strategy to pool the risk between the supplied users and the utility, to prevent them from being exposed to surcharge fluctuations.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Gesualdo Chiquito, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The production of food is susceptible to several climate hazards such as droughts, excessive rainfall, and heat waves. In this paper, we present a methodology that uses artificial intelligence for assessing the impact of climate risks on food production. Our methodology helps us to automatically select the most relevant indices and critical thresholds of these indices that when surpassed can increase the danger of crop yield loss.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Gabriela C. Gesualdo, Marcos R. Benso, Fabrício A. R. Navarro, Luis M. Castillo, and Eduardo M. Mendiondo
Proc. IAHS, 385, 117–120, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated indexed insurance for a water utility responsible for providing water to 7.2 million people in a metropolitan region. According to our findings, an annual amount (premium) of USD 0.43, 0.87, and 1.73 should be charged per person to obtain drought coverage for three, six, and twelve months. The premium fee can be implemented in the water bills as a new strategy to pool the risk between the supplied users and the utility, to prevent them from being exposed to surcharge fluctuations.
Luis Andres De la Fuente, Mohammad Reza Ehsani, Hoshin Vijai Gupta, and Laura Elizabeth Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 945–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-945-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-945-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long short-term memory (LSTM) is a widely used machine-learning model in hydrology, but it is difficult to extract knowledge from it. We propose HydroLSTM, which represents processes like a hydrological reservoir. Models based on HydroLSTM perform similarly to LSTM while requiring fewer cell states. The learned parameters are informative about the dominant hydrology of a catchment. Our results show how parsimony and hydrological knowledge extraction can be achieved by using the new structure.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Gesualdo Chiquito, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The production of food is susceptible to several climate hazards such as droughts, excessive rainfall, and heat waves. In this paper, we present a methodology that uses artificial intelligence for assessing the impact of climate risks on food production. Our methodology helps us to automatically select the most relevant indices and critical thresholds of these indices that when surpassed can increase the danger of crop yield loss.
Luis Andres De la Fuente, Mohammad Reza Ehsani, Hoshin Vijai Gupta, and Laura E. Condon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-666, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is a widely-used machine learning (ML) model in hydrology. However, it is difficult to extract knowledge from it. We propose HydroLSTM which represents processes analogous to a hydrological reservoir. Models using HydroLSTM perform similarly to LSTM but require fewer cell states. The learned parameters are informative about the dominant hydroclimatic characteristics of a catchment. Our results demonstrate how hydrological knowledge is encoded in the new structure.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Jonathan M. Frame, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Guy Shalev, Oren Gilon, Logan M. Qualls, Hoshin V. Gupta, and Grey S. Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3377–3392, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3377-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The most accurate rainfall–runoff predictions are currently based on deep learning. There is a concern among hydrologists that deep learning models may not be reliable in extrapolation or for predicting extreme events. This study tests that hypothesis. The deep learning models remained relatively accurate in predicting extreme events compared with traditional models, even when extreme events were not included in the training set.
André Almagro, Paulo Tarso S. Oliveira, Antônio Alves Meira Neto, Tirthankar Roy, and Peter Troch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3105–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3105-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We have collected and synthesized catchment attributes from multiple sources into an extensive dataset, the Catchment Attributes for Brazil (CABra). CABra contains streamflow and climate daily series for 735 catchments in the 1980–2010 period, aside from dozens of attributes of topography, climate, streamflow, groundwater, soil, geology, land cover, and hydrologic disturbance. The CABra intends to pave the way for a better understanding of catchments' behavior in Brazil and the world.
Jianjun Zhang, Guangyao Gao, Bojie Fu, Cong Wang, Hoshin V. Gupta, Xiaoping Zhang, and Rui Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 809–826, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-809-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-809-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed an approach that integrates universal multifractals and a segmentation algorithm to precisely identify extreme precipitation (EP) and assess spatiotemporal EP variation over the Loess Plateau, using daily data. Our results explain how EP contributes to the widely distributed severe natural hazards. These findings are of great significance for ecological management in the Loess Plateau. Our approach is also helpful for spatiotemporal EP assessment at the regional scale.
Ralf Loritz, Axel Kleidon, Conrad Jackisch, Martijn Westhoff, Uwe Ehret, Hoshin Gupta, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3807–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3807-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3807-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we develop a topographic index explaining hydrological similarity within a energy-centered framework, with the observation that the majority of potential energy is dissipated when rainfall becomes runoff.
Naoki Mizukami, Oldrich Rakovec, Andrew J. Newman, Martyn P. Clark, Andrew W. Wood, Hoshin V. Gupta, and Rohini Kumar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2601–2614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2601-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2601-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We find that Nash–Sutcliffe (NSE)-based model calibrations result in poor reproduction of high-flow events, such as the annual peak flows that are used for flood frequency estimation. The use of Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) results in annual peak flow estimates that are better than from NSE, with only a slight degradation in performance with respect to other related metrics.
Ralf Loritz, Hoshin Gupta, Conrad Jackisch, Martijn Westhoff, Axel Kleidon, Uwe Ehret, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3684, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3663-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3663-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we explore the role of spatially distributed information on hydrological modeling. For that, we develop and test an approach which draws upon information theory and thermodynamic reasoning. We show that the proposed set of methods provide a powerful framework for understanding and diagnosing how and when process organization and functional similarity of hydrological systems emerge in time and, hence, when which landscape characteristic is important in a model application.
Tirthankar Roy, Hoshin V. Gupta, Aleix Serrat-Capdevila, and Juan B. Valdes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 879–896, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-879-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-879-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents and compares two different approaches to using satellite-derived estimates of actual evapotranspiration (ET) to improve the performance of a conceptual rainfall–runoff model. In the first approach, the ET process within the model is constrained using the satellite ET estimates, while in the second one, the model structure is altered. Results indicate that both the approaches improve streamflow forecasting, while the second one also improves the ET simulations significantly.
Hernan A. Moreno, Hoshin V. Gupta, Dave D. White, and David A. Sampson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1241–1267, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1241-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1241-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We use a distributed hydrologic model to document the potential impacts of a forest restoration project on the mean and extreme hydrologic conditions on a water-supply, semi-arid basin. Results show shifts in spatio-temporal patterns of interception, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, snow persistence and runoff production differently in contrasting aspect slopes. Forest thinning leads to net loss of surface water storage and to a less regulated runoff response during hydrologic extremes.
P. T. S. Oliveira, E. Wendland, M. A. Nearing, R. L. Scott, R. Rosolem, and H. R. da Rocha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2899–2910, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2899-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2899-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We determined the main components of the water balance for an undisturbed cerrado.
Evapotranspiration ranged from 1.91 to 2.60mm per day for the dry and wet seasons, respectively. Canopy interception ranged from 4 to 20% and stemflow values were approximately 1% of gross precipitation.
The average runoff coefficient was less than 1%, while cerrado deforestation has the potential to increase that amount up to 20-fold.
The water storage may be estimated by the difference between P and ET.
Z. H. He, F. Q. Tian, H. V. Gupta, H. C. Hu, and H. P. Hu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1807–1826, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1807-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1807-2015, 2015
S. Gharari, M. Shafiei, M. Hrachowitz, R. Kumar, F. Fenicia, H. V. Gupta, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4861–4870, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4861-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4861-2014, 2014
U. Ehret, H. V. Gupta, M. Sivapalan, S. V. Weijs, S. J. Schymanski, G. Blöschl, A. N. Gelfan, C. Harman, A. Kleidon, T. A. Bogaard, D. Wang, T. Wagener, U. Scherer, E. Zehe, M. F. P. Bierkens, G. Di Baldassarre, J. Parajka, L. P. H. van Beek, A. van Griensven, M. C. Westhoff, and H. C. Winsemius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 649–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, 2014
H. V. Gupta, C. Perrin, G. Blöschl, A. Montanari, R. Kumar, M. Clark, and V. Andréassian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 463–477, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-463-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-463-2014, 2014
Z. He, F. Tian, H. C. Hu, H. V. Gupta, and H. P. Hu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-1253-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-1253-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
V. López-Burgos, H. V. Gupta, and M. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1809–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1809-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1809-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Assessment of upscaling methodologies for daily crop transpiration using sap flows and two-source energy balance models in almonds under different water statuses and production systems
Making a case for power-sensitive water modelling: a literature review
Developing water supply reservoir operating rules for large-scale hydrological modelling
An investigation of anthropogenic influences on hydrologic connectivity using model stress tests
The H2Ours game to explore water use, resources and sustainability: connecting issues in two landscapes in Indonesia
Drainage assessment of irrigation districts: on the precision and accuracy of four parsimonious models
Impact of reservoir evaporation on future water availability in north-eastern Brazil: a multi-scenario assessment
How economically and environmentally viable are multiple dams in the upper Cauvery Basin, India? A hydro-economic analysis using a landscape-based hydrological model
Leveraging a novel hybrid ensemble and optimal interpolation approach for enhanced streamflow and flood prediction
The interprovincial green water flow in China and its tele-connected effects on socio-economy
Spatially explicit assessment of water scarcity and potential mitigating solutions in a large water-limited basin: the Yellow River basin in China
A generalised ecohydrological landscape classification for assessing ecosystem risk in Australia due to an altering water regime
Determining the threshold of issuing flash flood warnings based on people’s response process simulation
Modeling water balance components of conifer species using the Noah-MP model in an eastern Mediterranean ecosystem
A scalable and modular reservoir implementation for large scale integrated hydrologic simulations
Process-based three-layer synergistic optimal-allocation model for complex water resource systems considering reclaimed water
Joint optimal operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project considering the evenness of water deficit
Employing the generalized Pareto distribution to analyze extreme rainfall events on consecutive rainy days in Thailand's Chi watershed: implications for flood management
Modeling hydropower operations at the scale of a power grid: a demand-based approach
How to account for irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model
Inferring reservoir filling strategies under limited-data-availability conditions using hydrological modeling and Earth observations: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
The precision of satellite-based net irrigation quantification in the Indus and Ganges basins
Developing a Bayesian network model for understanding river catchment resilience under future change scenarios
Quantifying the trade-offs in re-operating dams for the environment in the Lower Volta River
Dynamically coupling system dynamics and SWAT+ models using Tinamït: application of modular tools for coupled human–water system models
Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes
Cooperation in a transboundary river basin: a large-scale socio-hydrological model of the Eastern Nile
Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts
An improved model of shade-affected stream temperature in Soil & Water Assessment Tool
Seasonal forecasting of snow resources at Alpine sites
Operationalizing equity in multipurpose water systems
Evaluation of a new observationally based channel parameterization for the National Water Model
High-resolution drought simulations and comparison to soil moisture observations in Germany
Cooperation under conflict: participatory hydrological modeling for science policy dialogues for the Aculeo Lake
Socio-hydrological modeling of the tradeoff between flood control and hydropower provided by the Columbia River Treaty
Challenges and benefits of quantifying irrigation through the assimilation of Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into Noah-MP
A system dynamic model to quantify the impacts of water resources allocation on water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexus
Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe
The role of multi-criteria decision analysis in a transdisciplinary process: co-developing a flood forecasting system in western Africa
Unfolding the relationship between seasonal forecast skill and value in hydropower production: a global analysis
Drought impact links to meteorological drought indicators and predictability in Spain
Opportunities for seasonal forecasting to support water management outside the tropics
Probabilistic modelling of the inherent field-level pesticide pollution risk in a small drinking water catchment using spatial Bayesian belief networks
Are maps of nitrate reduction in groundwater altered by climate and land use changes?
Historical simulation of maize water footprints with a new global gridded crop model ACEA
Future upstream water consumption and its impact on downstream water availability in the transboundary Indus Basin
Identifying the dynamic evolution and feedback process of water resources nexus system considering socioeconomic development, ecological protection, and food security: A practical tool for sustainable water use
Optimizing a backscatter forward operator using Sentinel-1 data over irrigated land
Robustness of a parsimonious subsurface drainage model at the French national scale
Spatially distributed impacts of climate change and groundwater demand on the water resources in a wadi system
Manuel Quintanilla-Albornoz, Xavier Miarnau, Ana Pelechá, Héctor Nieto, and Joaquim Bellvert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4797–4818, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4797-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4797-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Remote sensing can be a helpful tool for monitoring crop transpiration (T) for agricultural water management. Since remote sensing provides instantaneous data, upscaling techniques are required to estimate T on a daily scale. This study assesses optimal image acquisition times and four upscaling approaches to estimate daily T. The results indicate that the main errors derive from measurement time and water stress levels, which can be mitigated by choosing a proper upscaling approach.
Rozemarijn ter Horst, Rossella Alba, Jeroen Vos, Maria Rusca, Jonatan Godinez-Madrigal, Lucie V. Babel, Gert Jan Veldwisch, Jean-Philippe Venot, Bruno Bonté, David W. Walker, and Tobias Krueger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4157–4186, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The exact power of models often remains hidden, especially when neutrality is claimed. Our review of 61 scientific articles shows that in the scientific literature little attention is given to the power of water models to influence development processes and outcomes. However, there is a lot to learn from those who are openly reflexive. Based on lessons from the review, we call for power-sensitive modelling, which means that people are critical about how models are made and with what effects.
Saskia Salwey, Gemma Coxon, Francesca Pianosi, Rosanna Lane, Chris Hutton, Michael Bliss Singer, Hilary McMillan, and Jim Freer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4203–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reservoirs are essential for water resource management and can significantly impact downstream flow. However, representing reservoirs in hydrological models can be challenging, particularly across large scales. We design a new and simple method for simulating river flow downstream of water supply reservoirs using only open-access data. We demonstrate the approach in 264 reservoir catchments across Great Britain, where we can significantly improve the simulation of reservoir-impacted flow.
Amelie Herzog, Jost Hellwig, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4065–4083, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Surface water–groundwater interaction can vary along a river. This study used a groundwater model that reproduced relative observed longitudinal and vertical connectivity patterns in the river network to assess the system's response to imposed stress tests. For the case study, imposed groundwater abstraction appears to influence connectivity relatively more than altered recharge, but a quantification of absolute exchange flows will require further model improvements.
Lisa Tanika, Rika Ratna Sari, Arief Lukman Hakim, Meine van Noordwijk, Marielos Peña-Claros, Beria Leimona, Edi Purwanto, and Erika N. Speelman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3807–3835, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3807-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3807-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The H2Ours game is designed to facilitate knowledge transfer and sharing among stakeholders to trigger commitment and collaborative action to restore hydrological conditions. The adaptability of the H2Ours game was proven in two different landscapes: groundwater recharge in upper to middle sub-watersheds with (over)use of water in the lowland zone and a peatland with drainage, rewetting, oil palm conversion and fire as issues. The game evaluation shows that the H2Ours game meets its purpose.
Pierre Laluet, Luis Olivera-Guerra, Víctor Altés, Vincent Rivalland, Alexis Jeantet, Julien Tournebize, Omar Cenobio-Cruz, Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Josep Maria Villar, and Olivier Merlin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3695–3716, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3695-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3695-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring agricultural drainage flow in irrigated areas is key to water and soil management. In this paper, four simple drainage models are evaluated on two irrigated sub-basins where drainage flow is measured daily. The evaluation of their precision shows that they simulate drainage very well when calibrated with drainage data and that one of them is slightly better. The evaluation of their accuracy shows that only one model can provide rough drainage estimates without calibration data.
Gláuber Pontes Rodrigues, Arlena Brosinsky, Ítalo Sampaio Rodrigues, George Leite Mamede, and José Carlos de Araújo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3243–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research focuses on a 4-million-inhabitant tropical region supplied by a network of open-water reservoirs where the dry season lasts for 8 months (Jun−Dec). We analysed the impact of four climate change scenarios on the evaporation rate and the associated availability (water yield distributed per year). The worst-case scenario shows that by the end of the century (2071−2099), the evaporation rate in the dry season could increase by 6 %, which would reduce stored water by about 80 %.
Anjana Ekka, Yong Jiang, Saket Pande, and Pieter van der Zaag
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3219–3241, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, we analyse the economic and ecological performance of existing multiple big reservoirs on a daily timescale for a major river basin (upper Cauvery) in India, where pre-intervention data were not available but where there are increasing calls for such assessments. Results show that smaller reservoirs on smaller streams that maximize the economic value of stored water are better for the basin economy and the environment. The approach can help to prioritize dam removals.
Mohamad El Gharamti, Arezoo Rafieeinasab, and James L. McCreight
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3133–3159, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a hybrid data assimilation scheme for precise streamflow predictions during intense rainfall and hurricanes. Tested in real events, it outperforms traditional methods by up to 50 %, utilizing ensemble and climatological background covariances. The adaptive algorithm ensures reliability with a small ensemble, offering improved forecasts up to 18 h in advance, marking a significant advancement in flood prediction capabilities.
Shan Sang, Yan Li, Chengcheng Hou, Shuangshuang Zi, and Huiqing Lin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1420, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Green water flow among each province in China embodies substantial socio-economic values. Green water flow and its tele-connected socio-economic effects should be considered in water resources management in additional to blue water.
Weibin Zhang, Xining Zhao, Xuerui Gao, Wei Liang, Junyi Li, and Baoqing Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-88, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
An integrated framework was applied in the Yellow River basin to assess the water crisis. Results indicate worsening water scarcity during 1965‒2013, driven by irrigation and climate changes. Local water yield and upstream flows are key drivers of sub-basin water availability. To reduce the water deficit of 10 km3 by 2030s, enhancing irrigation efficiency and water transfer project are crucial, emphasizing the imperative of combining supply and demand-oriented measures to solve the water crisis.
Alexander Herr, Linda E. Merrin, Patrick J. Mitchell, Anthony P. O'Grady, Kate L. Holland, Richard E. Mount, David A. Post, Chris R. Pavey, and Ashley D. Sparrow
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1957–1979, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1957-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop an ecohydrological classification for regions with limited hydrological records. It provides causal links of landscape features and their water requirement. The classification is an essential framework for modelling the impact of future coal resource developments via water on the features. A rule set combines diverse data with prioritisation, resulting in a transparent, repeatable and adjustable approach. We show examples of linking ecohydrology with environmental impacts.
Ruikang Zhang, Dedi Liu, Lihua Xiong, Jie Chen, Hua Chen, and Jiabo Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-130, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Flash flood warnings cannot be effective without people’s responses to them. We propose a method to determine the threshold of issuing the warnings based on the people’s response process simulation. The results show that adjusting the warning threshold according to the people’s tolerance levels of the failed warnings can improve warning effectiveness, but the prerequisite is to increase the forecasting accuracy and decrease the forecasting variance.
Mohsen Amini Fasakhodi, Hakan Djuma, Ioannis Sofokleous, Marinos Eliades, and Adriana Bruggeman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-107, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study examined the water use of pine and cypress trees in a semi-arid Mediterranean forest environment. We applied a widely used land surface model (Noah-MP) to simulate the water balance of the ecosystem. We found good modeling results for soil moisture. However, the model underestimated the transpiration of the trees during the dry summer months. These findings indicate that more research is needed to improve the modeling of ecosystem responses to climate and land use change.
Benjamin D. West, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-965, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-965, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes the addition of reservoirs to the hydrologic model, ParFlow. ParFlow is particularly good at helping us understand some of the broader drivers behind different parts of the water cycle. By having reservoirs in such a model we hope to be better able to understand both our impacts on the environment, and how to adjust our management of reservoirs to changing conditions.
Jing Liu, Yue-Ping Xu, Wei Zhang, Shiwu Wang, and Siwei Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1325–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1325-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1325-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Applying optimal water allocation models to simultaneously enable economic benefits, water preferences, and environmental demands at different decision levels, timescales, and regions is a challenge. In this study, a process-based three-layer synergistic optimal-allocation model (PTSOA) is established to achieve these goals. Reused, reclaimed water is also coupled to capture environmentally friendly solutions. Network analysis was introduced to reduce competition among different stakeholders.
Bing-Yi Zhou, Guo-Hua Fang, Xin Li, Jian Zhou, and Hua-Yu Zhong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 817–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The current unreasonable inter-basin water transfer operation leads to the problem of spatial and temporal imbalances in water allocation. This paper defines a water deficit evenness index and incorporates it into a joint optimization model for the Jiangsu section of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project considering ecology and economy. At the same time, the lake storage capacity performs well, and the water transfer efficiency of the river is significantly improved.
Tossapol Phoophiwfa, Prapawan Chomphuwiset, Thanawan Prahadchai, Jeong-Soo Park, Arthit Apichottanakul, Watchara Theppang, and Piyapatr Busababodhin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 801–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-801-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the impact of extreme rainfall events on flood risk management in Thailand's Chi watershed. By analyzing historical data, we identified regions, notably Udon Thani and Chaiyaphum, with a high risk of flash flooding. To aid in flood risk assessment, visual maps were created. The study underscores the importance of preparing for extreme rainfall events, particularly in the context of climate change, to effectively mitigate potential flood damage.
Laure Baratgin, Jan Polcher, Patrice Dumas, and Philippe Quirion
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3106, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modeling is valuable for estimating the possible impacts of climate change on hydropower generation. In this study, we present a more comprehensive approach to model the management of hydroelectric reservoirs. The total power-grid demand is distributed to the various power plants according to their reservoir states to compute their release. The method is tested on France, and demonstrates that it succeeds in reproducing the observed behavior of reservoirs.
Elisabeth Brochet, Youen Grusson, Sabine Sauvage, Ludovic Lhuissier, and Valérie Demarez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 49–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-49-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-49-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to take into account irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model. The model we used combines agriculture and hydrological modeling. Two different crop models were compared, the first based on air temperature and the second based on Sentinel-2 satellite data. Results show that including remote sensing data leads to better emergence dates. Both methods allow us to simulate the daily irrigation withdrawals and downstream flow with a good accuracy, especially during low-flow periods.
Awad M. Ali, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4057–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new approach based on a combination of modeling and Earth observation, useful information about the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can be obtained with limited data and proper rainfall selection. While the monthly streamflow into Sudan has decreased significantly (1.2 × 109–5 × 109 m3) with respect to the non-dam scenario, the negative impact has been masked due to higher-than-average rainfall. We reveal that the dam will need 3–5 more years to complete filling.
Søren J. Kragh, Rasmus Fensholt, Simon Stisen, and Julian Koch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2463–2478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the precision of irrigation estimates from a global hotspot of unsustainable irrigation practice, the Indus and Ganges basins. We show that irrigation water use can be estimated with high precision by comparing satellite and rainfed hydrological model estimates of evapotranspiration. We believe that our work can support sustainable water resource management, as it addresses the uncertainty of a key component of the water balance that remains challenging to quantify.
Kerr J. Adams, Christopher A. J. Macleod, Marc J. Metzger, Nicola Melville, Rachel C. Helliwell, Jim Pritchard, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2205–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We applied participatory methods to create a hybrid equation-based Bayesian network (BN) model to increase stakeholder understanding of catchment-scale resilience to the impacts of both climatic and socio-economic stressors to a 2050 time horizon. Our holistic systems-thinking approach enabled stakeholders to gain new perspectives on how future scenarios may influence their specific sectors and how their sector impacted other sectors and environmental conditions within the catchment system.
Afua Owusu, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, Marloes Mul, Pieter van der Zaag, and Jill Slinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2001–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The construction of two dams in the Lower Volta River, Ghana, adversely affected downstream riverine ecosystems and communities. In contrast, Ghana has enjoyed vast economic benefits from the dams. Herein lies the challenge; there exists a trade-off between water for river ecosystems and water for anthropogenic water demands such hydropower. In this study, we quantify these trade-offs and show that there is room for providing environmental flows under current and future climatic conditions.
Joel Z. Harms, Julien J. Malard-Adam, Jan F. Adamowski, Ashutosh Sharma, and Albert Nkwasa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1683–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To facilitate the meaningful participation of stakeholders in water management, model choice is crucial. We show how system dynamics models (SDMs), which are very visual and stakeholder-friendly, can be automatically combined with physically based hydrological models that may be more appropriate for modelling the water processes of a human–water system. This allows building participatory SDMs with stakeholders and delegating hydrological components to an external hydrological model.
Erhu Du, Feng Wu, Hao Jiang, Naliang Guo, Yong Tian, and Chunmiao Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1607–1626, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that can simulate the entire flood management processes, including flood inundation, flood management policies, public responses, and evacuation activities. The model is able to holistically examine flood evacuation performance under the joint impacts of hydrological conditions, management policies (i.e., shelter location distribution), and human behaviors (i.e., evacuation preparation time and route-searching strategy).
Mohammad Ghoreishi, Amin Elshorbagy, Saman Razavi, Günter Blöschl, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Ahmed Abdelkader
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1201–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a quantitative model of the willingness to cooperate in the Eastern Nile River basin. Our results suggest that the 2008 food crisis may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate with Ethiopia. Long-term lack of trust among the riparian countries may have reduced basin-wide cooperation. The model can be used to explore the effects of changes in future dam operations and other management decisions on the emergence of basin cooperation.
Richard Laugesen, Mark Thyer, David McInerney, and Dmitri Kavetski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 873–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts may be valuable for user decisions, but current practice to quantify it has critical limitations. This study introduces RUV (relative utility value, a new metric that can be tailored to specific decisions and decision-makers. It illustrates how critical this decision context is when evaluating forecast value. This study paves the way for agencies to tailor the evaluation of their services to customer decisions and researchers to study model improvements through the lens of user impact.
Efrain Noa-Yarasca, Meghna Babbar-Sebens, and Chris Jordan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 739–759, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Riparian vegetation has been identified as a strategy to control rising stream temperatures by shading streams. Riparian vegetation is included within a sub-basin-scale hydrological model and evaluated for full and efficient restoration scenarios. Results showed average temperature reductions of 0.91 and 0.86 °C for full and efficient riparian restoration, respectively. Notwithstanding the similar benefits, efficient restoration was 14.4 % cheaper than full riparian vegetation restoration.
Silvia Terzago, Giulio Bongiovanni, and Jost von Hardenberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 519–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable seasonal forecasts of the abundance of mountain snowpack over the winter/spring ahead provide valuable information for water management, hydropower production and ski tourism. We present a climate service prototype to generate multi-model ensemble seasonal forecasts of mountain snow depth, based on Copernicus seasonal forecast system meteorological data used to force the SNOWPACK model. The prototype shows skill at predicting snow depth below and above normal and extremely dry seasons.
Guang Yang, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 69–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Participatory decision-making is a well-established approach to address the increasing pressure on water systems that searches for system-wise efficient solutions but often does not quantify how the resulting benefits are distributed across stakeholders. In this work, we show how including equity principles into the design of water system operations enriches the solution space by generating more compromise solutions that balance efficiency and justice.
Aaron Heldmyer, Ben Livneh, James McCreight, Laura Read, Joseph Kasprzyk, and Toby Minear
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6121–6136, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of channel characteristics are important for accurate forecasting in the NOAA National Water Model (NWM) but are scarcely available. We seek to improve channel representativeness in the NWM by updating channel geometry and roughness parameters using a large, previously unpublished, dataset of approximately 48 000 gauges. We find that the updated channel parameterization from this new dataset leads to improvements in simulated streamflow performance and channel representation.
Friedrich Boeing, Oldrich Rakovec, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, Martin Schrön, Anke Hildebrandt, Corinna Rebmann, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Müller, Steffen Zacharias, Heye Bogena, Katrin Schneider, Ralf Kiese, Sabine Attinger, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5137–5161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we deliver an evaluation of the second generation operational German drought monitor (https://www.ufz.de/duerremonitor) with a state-of-the-art compilation of observed soil moisture data from 40 locations and four different measurement methods in Germany. We show that the expressed stakeholder needs for higher resolution drought information at the one-kilometer scale can be met and that the agreement of simulated and observed soil moisture dynamics can be moderately improved.
Anahi Ocampo-Melgar, Pilar Barría, Cristián Chadwick, and Cesar Rivas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5103–5118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article examines how a hydrological model exploring the causes of a lake desiccation was turned into a 5-step participatory process to better adjust the model to address questions that were causing suspicions and conflicts in the community. Although the process was key in finding a combination of strategies that were of moderate impact and higher local acceptability, we address the challenges of such collaboration in modeling when conflict is deeply embedded in the context.
Ashish Shrestha, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Samuel Park, Charlotte Cherry, Margaret Garcia, David J. Yu, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4893–4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Equitable sharing of benefits is key to successful cooperation in transboundary water resource management. However, external changes can shift the split of benefits and shifts in the preferences regarding how an actor’s benefits compare to the other’s benefits. To understand how these changes can impact the robustness of cooperative agreements, we develop a socio-hydrological system dynamics model of the benefit sharing provision of the Columbia River Treaty and assess a series of scenarios.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Michel Bechtold, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Luca Brocca, Luca Zappa, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4685–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Given the crucial impact of irrigation practices on the water cycle, this study aims at estimating irrigation through the development of an innovative data assimilation system able to ingest high-resolution Sentinel-1 radar observations into the Noah-MP land surface model. The developed methodology has important implications for global water resource management and the comprehension of human impacts on the water cycle and identifies main challenges and outlooks for future research.
Yujie Zeng, Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Lihua Xiong, Pan Liu, Jiabo Yin, and Zhenhui Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3965–3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The sustainability of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus remains challenge, as interactions between WEF and human sensitivity and water resource allocation in water systems are often neglected. We incorporated human sensitivity and water resource allocation into a WEF nexus and assessed their impacts on the integrated system. This study can contribute to understanding the interactions across the water–energy–food–society nexus and improving the efficiency of resource management.
Louise Busschaert, Shannon de Roos, Wim Thiery, Dirk Raes, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3731–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing amounts of water are used for agriculture. Therefore, we looked into how irrigation requirements will evolve under a changing climate over Europe. Our results show that, by the end of the century and under high emissions, irrigation water will increase by 30 % on average compared to the year 2000. Also, the irrigation requirement is likely to vary more from 1 year to another. However, if emissions are mitigated, these effects are reduced.
Judit Lienert, Jafet C. M. Andersson, Daniel Hofmann, Francisco Silva Pinto, and Martijn Kuller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2899–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Many western Africans encounter serious floods every year. The FANFAR project co-designed a pre-operational flood forecasting system (FEWS) with 50 key western African stakeholders. Participatory multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) helped prioritize a FEWS that meets their needs: it should provide accurate, clear, and timely flood risk information and work reliably in tough conditions. As a theoretical contribution, we propose an assessment framework for transdisciplinary hydrology research.
Donghoon Lee, Jia Yi Ng, Stefano Galelli, and Paul Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2431–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To fully realize the potential of seasonal streamflow forecasts in the hydropower industry, we need to understand the relationship between reservoir design specifications, forecast skill, and value. Here, we rely on realistic forecasts and simulated hydropower operations for 753 dams worldwide to unfold such relationship. Our analysis shows how forecast skill affects hydropower production, what type of dams are most likely to benefit from seasonal forecasts, and where these dams are located.
Herminia Torelló-Sentelles and Christian L. E. Franzke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1821–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Drought affects many regions worldwide, and future climate projections imply that drought severity and frequency will increase. Hence, the impacts of drought on the environment and society will also increase considerably. Monitoring and early warning systems for drought rely on several indicators; however, assessments on how these indicators are linked to impacts are still lacking. Our results show that meteorological indices are best linked to impact occurrences.
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Elvira de Eyto, Andrew S. French, María Dolores Frías, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Tadhg Moore, Laura Puértolas, Russell Poole, Karsten Rinke, Muhammed Shikhani, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1389–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality, and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision-making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.
Mads Troldborg, Zisis Gagkas, Andy Vinten, Allan Lilly, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1261–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1261-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1261-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Pesticides continue to pose a threat to surface water quality worldwide. Here, we present a spatial Bayesian belief network (BBN) for assessing inherent pesticide risk to water quality. The BBN was applied in a small catchment with limited data to simulate the risk of five pesticides and evaluate the likely effectiveness of mitigation measures. The probabilistic graphical model combines diverse data and explicitly accounts for uncertainties, which are often ignored in pesticide risk assessments.
Ida Karlsson Seidenfaden, Torben Obel Sonnenborg, Jens Christian Refsgaard, Christen Duus Børgesen, Jørgen Eivind Olesen, and Dennis Trolle
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 955–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how the spatial nitrate reduction in the subsurface may shift under changing climate and land use conditions. This change is investigated by comparing maps showing the spatial nitrate reduction in an agricultural catchment for current conditions, with maps generated for future projected climate and land use conditions. Results show that future climate flow paths may shift the catchment reduction noticeably, while implications of land use changes were less substantial.
Oleksandr Mialyk, Joep F. Schyns, Martijn J. Booij, and Rick J. Hogeboom
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 923–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-923-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-923-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As the global demand for crops is increasing, it is vital to understand spatial and temporal patterns of crop water footprints (WFs). Previous studies looked into spatial patterns but not into temporal ones. Here, we present a new process-based gridded crop model to simulate WFs and apply it for maize in 1986–2016. We show that despite the average unit WF reduction (−35 %), the global WF of maize production has increased (+50 %), which might harm ecosystems and human livelihoods in some regions.
Wouter J. Smolenaars, Sanita Dhaubanjar, Muhammad K. Jamil, Arthur Lutz, Walter Immerzeel, Fulco Ludwig, and Hester Biemans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 861–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The arid plains of the lower Indus Basin rely heavily on the water provided by the mountainous upper Indus. Rapid population growth in the upper Indus is expected to increase the water that is consumed there. This will subsequently reduce the water that is available for the downstream plains, where the population and water demand are also expected to grow. In future, this may aggravate tensions over the division of water between the countries that share the Indus Basin.
Yaogeng Tan, Zengchuan Dong, Sandra M. Guzman, Xinkui Wang, and Wei Yan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6495–6522, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6495-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The rapid increase in economic development and urbanization is contributing to the imbalances and conflicts between water supply and demand and further deteriorates river ecological health, which intensifies their interactions and causes water unsustainability. This paper proposes a methodology for sustainable development of water resources, considering socioeconomic development, food safety, and ecological protection, and the dynamic interactions across those water users are further assessed.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Alexander Gruber, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Renato Morbidelli, and Gabrielle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6283–6307, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Worldwide, the amount of water used for agricultural purposes is rising and the quantification of irrigation is becoming a crucial topic. Land surface models are not able to correctly simulate irrigation. Remote sensing observations offer an opportunity to fill this gap as they are directly affected by irrigation. We equipped a land surface model with an observation operator able to transform Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into realistic vegetation and soil states via data assimilation.
Alexis Jeantet, Hocine Henine, Cédric Chaumont, Lila Collet, Guillaume Thirel, and Julien Tournebize
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5447–5471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The hydrological subsurface drainage model SIDRA-RU is assessed at the French national scale, using a unique database representing the large majority of the French drained areas. The model is evaluated following its capacity to simulate the drainage discharge variability and the annual drained water balance. Eventually, the temporal robustness of SIDRA-RU is assessed to demonstrate the utility of this model as a long-term management tool.
Nariman Mahmoodi, Jens Kiesel, Paul D. Wagner, and Nicola Fohrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5065–5081, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we assessed the sustainability of water resources in a wadi region with the help of a hydrologic model. Our assessment showed that the increases in groundwater demand and consumption exacerbate the negative impact of climate change on groundwater sustainability and hydrologic regime alteration. These alterations have severe consequences for a downstream wetland and its ecosystem. The approach may be applicable in other wadi regions with different climate and water use systems.
Cited articles
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: Crop evapotranspiration:
guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and
drainag, Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, 1998.
Alvares, C. A., Stape, J. L., Sentelhas, P. C., de Moraes Gonçalves, J.
L., and Sparovek, G.: Köppen's climate classification map for Brazil,
Meteorol. Z., 22, 711–728, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0507,
2013.
Asadieh, B. and Krakauer, N. Y.: Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5863–5874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5863-2017, 2017.
Bastola, S. and Misra, V.: Evaluation of dynamically downscaled reanalysis
precipitation data for hydrological application, Hydrol. Process., 28,
1989–2002, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9734, 2014.
Batista Mattos, J., Brito Silva, K., da Silva, R. J., Mota Almeida, T. H.,
Sibilla Soares Póvoas, H., da Silva, P. V. R., de Araújo Góes,
I. M., and da Silva Matos, I.: Natural factors or environmental neglect?
Understanding the dilemma of a water crisis in a scenario of water plenty,
Land Use Policy, 82, 509–517, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.12.027, 2019.
Boyle, D. P.: Multicriteria calibration of hydrological models, Dep. of
Hydrology and Water Resources, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, 2000.
Chen, H., Yang, D., Hong, Y., Gourley, J. J., and Zhang, Y.: Hydrological
data assimilation with the Ensemble Square-Root-Filter: Use of streamflow
observations to update model states for real-time flash flood forecasting,
Adv. Water Resour., 59, 209–220,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2013.06.010, 2013.
COBRAPE: Plano das Bacias Hidrográficas dos Rios Piracicaba, Capivari e
Jundiaí 2010 a 2020, São Paulo, 2008.
Comitês das Bacias Hidrográficas dos Rios Piracicaba, Capivari e
Jundiaí (CBH-PCJ): Relatório da Situação do Recursos
Hídricos 2016, Ano base: 2015, São Paulo, 2016.
Coelho, C. A. S., Oliveira, C. P. de, Ambrizzi, T., Reboita, M. S.,
Carpenedo, C. B., Campos, J. L. P. S., Tomaziello, A. C. N., Pampuch, L. A.,
Custódio, M. de S., Dutra, L. M. M., Rocha, R. P. D., and Rehbein, A.:
The 2014 southeast Brazil austral summer drought: regional scale mechanisms
and teleconnections, Clim. Dynam., 46, 3737–3752,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2800-1, 2016.
Crosbie, R. S., McCallum, J. L., Walker, G. R., and Chiew, F. H. S.:
Modelling climate-change impacts on groundwater recharge in the
Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, Hydrogeol. J., 18, 1639–1656,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-010-0625-x, 2010.
Dadson, S., Hall, J. W., Garrick, D., Sadoff, C., Grey, D., and Whittington,
D.: Water security, risk, and economic growth: Insights from a dynamical
systems model, Water Resour. Res., 53, 6425–6438,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020640, 2017.
Debortoli, N. S., Camarinha, P. I. M., Marengo, J. A., and Rodrigues, R. R.:
An index of Brazil's vulnerability to expected increases in natural flash
flooding and landslide disasters in the context of climate change, Nat.
Hazards, 86, 557–582, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2705-2, 2017.
Dhakal, K., Kakani, V. G., and Linde, E.: Climate Change Impact on Wheat
Production in the Southern Great Plains of the US Using Downscaled Climate
Data, Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 08, 143, https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2018.82011,
2018.
Dias, M. A. F. S., Dias, J., Carvalho, L. M. V., Freitas, E. D., and Silva
Dias, P. L.: Changes in extreme daily rainfall for São Paulo, Brazil,
Climatic Change, 116, 705–722, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0504-7, 2013.
Didovets, I., Lobanova, A., Bronstert, A., Snizhko, S., Maule, C. F., and
Krysanova, V.: Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in
Three Representative Ukrainian Catchments Using Eco-Hydrological Modelling,
Water, 9, 204, https://doi.org/10.3390/w9030204, 2017.
Dobrovolski, R. and Rattis, L.: Water collapse in Brazil: the danger of
relying on what you neglect, Natureza & Conservação, 13,
80–83, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ncon.2015.03.006, 2015.
Ehsani, N., Vörösmarty, C. J., Fekete, B. M., and Stakhiv, E. Z.:
Reservoir operations under climate change: Storage capacity options to
mitigate risk, J. Hydrol., 555, 435–446,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.008, 2017.
Escobar, H.: Drought triggers alarms in Brazil's biggest metropolis,
Science, 347, 812–812, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.347.6224.812, 2015.
Faramarzi, M., Abbaspour, K. C., Schulin, R., and Yang, H.: Modelling blue
and green water resources availability in Iran, Hydrol. Process.,
23, 486–501, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7160, 2009.
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO): ETo Calculator, Land and Water
Digital Media Series, no. 36, FAO, Rome, Italy, 2009.
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO): Energy Smart Food for People and
Agriculture, Rome, Italy, 2011.
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO): The State of Food Insecurity in the
World 2015, Intl. Food for Agric. Dev. World Food Program, Rome, Italy,
2015.
Getirana, A.: Extreme Water Deficit in Brazil Detected from Space, J.
Hydrometeor., 17, 591–599, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0096.1, 2015.
Gleckler, P. J., Taylor, K. E., and Doutriaux, C.: Performance metrics for
climate models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D06104,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008972, 2008.
Gong, W., Gupta, H. V., Yang, D., Sricharan, K., and Hero, A. O.: Estimating
epistemic and aleatory uncertainties during hydrologic modeling: An
information theoretic approach, Water Resour. Res., 49, 2253–2273,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20161, 2013.
Gunda, T., Hess, D., Hornberger, G. M., and Worland, S.: Water security in
practice: The quantity-quality-society nexus, Water Security, 6, 100022,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2018.100022, 2019.
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martinez, G. F.: Decomposition of
the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for
improving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003, 2009.
Guzmám, D. A., Mohor, G. S., Taffarello, D., and Mendiondo, E. M.: Economic impacts of drought risks for water utilities through Severity-Duration-Frequency framework under climate change scenarios, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-615, 2017.
Haddad, E. A. and Teixeira, E.: Economic impacts of natural disasters in
megacities: The case of 604 floods in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Habitat Int., 45,
106–113, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2014.06.023, 2015.
Hoekstra, A. Y., Mekonnen, M. M., Aldaya, M. M., and Chapagain, A. K: The Water
Footprint Assessment Manual: Setting the Global Standard Routledge, 2011.
International Energy Agency (IEA): The IEA Model of Short-term Energy
Security (MOSES) Primary Energy Sources and Secondary Fuels Working Paper,
OECD/IEA, Paris, 2011.
International Energy Agency (IEA): World Energy Outlook 2016 Energy Access
Database, Cedex, France, available at: http://www.iea.org/weo (last access:
28 November 2017), 2016.
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Barros, V. R., Field, C. B., Dokken, D. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B., Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L. L., 2014.
Ionita, M., Tallaksen, L. M., Kingston, D. G., Stagge, J. H., Laaha, G., Van Lanen, H. A. J., Scholz, P., Chelcea, S. M., and Haslinger, K.: The European 2015 drought from a climatological perspective, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1397–1419, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1397-2017, 2017.
James, L. D. and Shafiee-Jood, M.: Interdisciplinary information for
achieving water security, Water Security, 2, 19–31,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2017.10.001, 2017.
Jones, P. G. and Thornton, P. K.: MarkSim: Software to Generate Daily
Weather Data for Latin America and Africa, Agron. J., 92,
445–453, https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2000.923445x, 2000.
Jones, P. G. and Thornton, P. K.: Generating downscaled weather data from a
suite of climate models for agricultural modelling applications,
Agr. Syst., 114, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2012.08.002, 2013.
Liu, J., Yang, H., Gosling, S. N., Kummu, M., Flörke, M., Pfister, S.,
Hanasaki, N., Wada, Y., Zhang, X., Zheng, C., Alcamo, J., and Oki, T.: Water
scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future, Earth's Future, 5,
545–559, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000518, 2017.
Lobanova, A., Liersch, S., Tàbara, J. D., Koch, H., Hattermann, F. F.,
and Krysanova, V.: Harmonizing human-hydrological system under climate
change: A scenario-based approach for the case of the headwaters of the
Tagus River, J. Hydrol., 548, 436–447,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.015, 2017.
Mandal, S. and Simonovic, S. P.: Quantification of uncertainty in the
assessment of future streamflow under changing climate conditions, Hydrol.
Process., 31, 2076–2094, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11174, 2017.
Marengo, J. A., Ambrizzi, T., da Rocha, R. P., Alves, L. M., Cuadra, S. V.,
Valverde, M. C., Torres, R. R., Santos, D. C., and Ferraz, S. E. T.: Future
change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century:
intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models, Clim. Dynam.,
35, 1073–1097, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0721-6, 2010.
Marengo, J. A., Valverde, M. C., and Obregon, G. O.: Observed and projected
changes in rainfall extremes in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo,
Clim. Res., 57, 61–72, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01160, 2013.
Marengo, J. A., Nobre, C. A., Seluchi, M., Cuartas, A., Alves, L. M.,
Mendiondo, E. M., Obregón, G., and Sampaio, G.: A seca e a crise hídrica
de 2014–2015 em São Paulo, Rev. 659 USP 116, 31–44.
https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.2316-9036.v0i106p31-44, 2015.
Martin-Ortega, J., González-Eguino, M., and Markandya, A.: The costs of
drought: the 2007/2008 case of Barcelona, Water Policy, 14, 539–560,
https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2011.121, 2012.
Melo, D. D. C. D., Scanlon, B. R., Zhang, Z., Wendland, E., and Yin, L.: Reservoir storage and hydrologic responses to droughts in the Paraná River basin, south-eastern Brazil, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4673–4688, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4673-2016, 2016.
Milano, M., Reynard, E., Muniz-Miranda, G., and Guerrin, J.: Water Supply
Basins of São Paulo Metropolitan Region: Hydro-Climatic Characteristics
of the 2013–2015 Water Crisis, Water, 10, 1517, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111517,
2018.
Minas Gerais State: Lei no. 13.199 de 29 de janeiro de 1999. Dispões
sobre a Política Estadual de Recursos Hídricos e das outras
providências, available at:
http://progestao.ana.gov.br/portal/progestao/panorama-dos-estados/mg/lei-no13-199-99_mg.pdf (last access: 27 October 2017), 1999.
Ministry of Regional Development: Plano Nacional de Segurança
Hídrica vai priorizar 114 obras para oferta de água, available at:
http://www.mi.gov.br/desenvolvimento-regional, last access: 21 January 2019.
Nelder, J. A. and Mead, R.: A Simplex Method for Function Minimization,
Comput. J., 7, 308–313, https://doi.org/10.1093/comjnl/7.4.308, 1965.
Nobre, C. A., Young, A. F., Saldiva, P. H. N., Orsini, J. A. M., Nobre, A. D.,
Ogura, A. T., and de Oliveira Rodrigues, G.: Vulnerability of Brazilian Megacities
to Climate Change: The São Paulo Metropolitan Region (RMSP), in: Climate
Change in Brazil: Economic, Social and Regulatory Aspects, edited by:
Motta, R. S., Hargrave, J., Luedemann, G., and Gutierrez, M. B. S., 197–219, Brasilia,
2011.
Nobre, C. A., Marengo, J. A., Seluchi, M. E., Cuartas, L. A., and Alves, L.
M.: Some Characteristics and Impacts of the Drought and Water Crisis in
Southeastern Brazil during 2014 and 2015, Journal of Water Resource and
Protection, 8, 252–262, https://doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2016.82022, 2016.
Pagiola, S., Ramírez, E., Gobbi, J., de Haan, C., Ibrahim, M.,
Murgueitio, E., and Ruíz, J. P.: Paying for the environmental services
of silvopastoral practices in Nicaragua, Ecol. Econ., 64,
374–385, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.04.014, 2007.
Parra, V., Fuentes-Aguilera, P., and Muñoz, E.: Identifying advantages
and drawbacks of two hydrological models based on a sensitivity analysis: a
study in two Chilean watersheds, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 63,
1831–1843, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2018.1538593, 2018.
Pires, M.: Watershed protection for a world city: the case of New York, Land
Use Policy, 21, 161–175, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2003.08.001, 2004.
Reilly, C. F. and Kroll, C. N.: Estimation of 7-day, 10-year low-streamflow
statistics using baseflow correlation, Water Resour. Res., 39, 1236,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002WR001740, 2003.
Rockström, J., Persson, Å., Nykvist, B., Walker, B., Folke, C., Wit,
C. A. de, Liverman, D., Lambin, E. F., Iii, F. S. C., Schellnhuber, H. J.,
Rodhe, H., Hansen, J., Foley, J. A., Richardson, K., Noone, K., Karlberg,
L., Falkenmark, M., Scheffer, M., Crutzen, P., Snyder, P. K., Costanza, R.,
Corell, R. W., Leeuw, S. van der, Sörlin, S., Hughes, T., Lenton, T. M.,
Svedin, U., Fabry, V. J. and Steffen, W.: A safe operating space for
humanity, Nature, 461, 472–475, https://doi.org/10.1038/461472a, 2009.
Rodrigues, D. B. B., Gupta, H. V., and Mendiondo, E. M.: A blue/green
water-based accounting framework for assessment of water security, Water
Resour. Res., 50, 7187–7205, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014274, 2014.
Rodrigues, D. B. B., Gupta, H. V., Mendiondo, E. M., and Oliveira, P. T. S.:
Assessing uncertainties in surface water security: An empirical multimodel
approach, Water Resour. Res., 51, 9013–9028, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016691,
2015.
Rodríguez-Lado, L., Sparovek, G., Vidal-Torrado, P., Dourado-Neto, D.,
and Macías-Vázquez, F.: Modelling air temperature for the state of
São Paulo, Brazil, Scientia Agricola, 64, 460–467,
https://doi.org/10.1590/S0103-90162007000500002, 2007.
Rodríguez Osuna, V., Börner, J., Nehren, U., Prado, R. B., Gaese,
H., and Heinrich, J.: Priority areas for watershed service conservation in
the Guapi-Macacu region of Rio de Janeiro, Atlantic Forest, Brazil, Ecol.
Process., 3, 16, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13717-014-0016-7, 2014.
Rosa, L. P. and Lomardo, L. L. B.: The Brazilian energy crisis and a study
to support building efficiency legislation, Energ. Buildings, 36,
89–95, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2003.09.001, 2004.
São Paulo State: Lei no. 9.034 de 27 de dezembro de 1994, Dispõe
sobre o Plano Estadual de Recursos Hídricos –PERH, a ser implantado no
período 1994 e 1995, em conformidade com a Lei 7663, de 30 de dezembro
de 1991, que instituiu normal de Orientação à Política
Estadual de Recursos Hídricos, available at:
https://www.al.sp.gov.br/repositorio/legislacao/lei/1994/lei-9034-27.12.1994.html
(last access: 27 October 2017), 1994.
Scott, C. A., Meza, F. J., Varady, R. G., Tiessen, H., McEvoy, J., Garfin,
G. M., Wilder, M., Farfán, L. M., Pablos, N. P., and Montaña, E.:
Water Security and Adaptive Management in the Arid Americas, Ann.
Assoc. Am. Geogr., 103, 280–289,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2013.754660, 2013.
Shevah, Y.: Water Resources, Water Scarcity Challenges, and Perspectives, in
Water Challenges and Solutions on a Global Scale, vol. 1206, 185–219,
American Chemical Society, 2015.
Sinha, D., Syed, T. H., Famiglietti, J. S., Reager, J. T., and Thomas, R. C.:
Characterizing Drought in India Using GRACE Observations of Terrestrial
Water Storage Deficit, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 381–396,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0047.1, 2016.
Sone, J. S., Gesualdo, G. C., Zamboni, P. A. P., Vieira, N. O. M., Mattos,
T. S., Carvalho, G. A., Rodrigues, D. B. B., Alves Sobrinho, T., and
Oliveira, P. T. S.: Water provisioning improvement through payment for
ecosystem services, Sci. Total Environ., 655, 1197–1206,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.319, 2019.
Srinivasan, V., Konar, M., and Sivapalan, M.: A dynamic framework for water
security, Water Security, 1, 12–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2017.03.001, 2017.
Taffarello, D., Mohor, G. S., Calijuri, M. C., and Mendiondo, E. M.: Field
investigations of the 2013–14 drought through quali-quantitative freshwater
monitoring at the headwaters of the Cantareira System, Brazil, Water
Int., 41, 776–800, https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2016.1188352, 2016.
Taffarello, D., Srinivasan, R., Mohor, G. S., Guimarães, J. L. B., do Carmo Calijuri, M., and Mendiondo, E. M.: Modeling freshwater quality scenarios with ecosystem-based adaptation in the headwaters of the Cantareira system, Brazil, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4699–4723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4699-2018, 2018.
United Nations: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings
and Advance Tables, Working Pap. ESA/P/WP.241, United Nations Dept. of
Econ. and Soc. Affairs (UNDESA), New York, 59 pp., 2015.
van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Beck, H. E., Crosbie, R. S., de Jeu, R. A. M., Liu,
Y. Y., Podger, G. M., Timbal, B., and Viney, N. R.: The Millennium Drought in
southeast Australia (2001–2009): Natural and human causes and implications
for water resources, ecosystems, economy, and society, Water Resour. Res.,
49, 1040–1057, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20123, 2013.
van Ginkel Kees, C. H., Hoekstra Arjen Y., Buurman, J., and Hogeboom, R.
J.: Urban Water Security Dashboard: Systems Approach to Characterizing the
Water Security of Cities, J. Water Res. Pl., 144, 04018075, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000997, 2018.
Veettil, A. V. and Mishra, A. K.: Water security assessment using blue and
green water footprint concepts, J. Hydrol., 542,
589–602, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.09.032, 2016.
Veettil, A. V. and Mishra, A. K.: Potential influence of climate and
anthropogenic variables on water security using blue and green water
scarcity, Falkenmark index, and freshwater provision indicator, J.
Environ. Manage., 228, 346–362, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.09.012,
2018.
Vörösmarty, C. J., Prusevich, A., Sullivan, C. A., Liermann, C. R.,
Dudgeon, D., Gessner, M. O., McIntyre, P. B., Green, P., Davies, P. M.,
Bunn, S. E., and Glidden, S.: Global threats to human water security and
river biodiversity, Nature, 467, 555–561, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09440, 2010.
Wagener, T., Boyle, D. P., Lees, M. J., Wheater, H. S., Gupta, H. V., and Sorooshian, S.: A framework for development and application of hydrological models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 13–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-5-13-2001, 2001.
Whately, M. and Cunha, C. P.: Um olhar sobre o maior manancial de
água da região metropolitana de São Paulo, Sao Paulo, 2007.
World Water Development Report (WWDR): The United Nations World Water
Development Report 2015, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
Organization, Paris, France, 2015.
Zolin, C. A., Folegatti, M. V., Mingoti, R., Paulino, J.,
Sánchez-Román, R. M., and González, A. M. O.: The first Brazilian
municipal initiative of payments for environmental services and its
potential for soil conservation, Agr. Water Manage., 137, 75–83,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2014.02.006, 2014.
Short summary
We investigate the influence of anticipated climate change on water security in the Jaguari Basin, which is the main source of freshwater for 9 million people in the São Paulo metropolitan region. Our findings indicate an expansion of the basin critical period, and identify October and November as the most vulnerable months. There is an urgent need to implement efficient mitigation and adaptation policies that recognize the annual pattern of variation between insecure and secure periods.
We investigate the influence of anticipated climate change on water security in the Jaguari...
