Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1951–1971, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1951-2019
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1951–1971, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1951-2019

Research article 11 Apr 2019

Research article | 11 Apr 2019

Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil: what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model?

Tobias Pilz et al.

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Cited articles

Alves, J. M. B., Campos, J. N. B., and Servain, J.: Reservoir Management Using Coupled Atmospheric and Hydrological Models: The Brazilian Semi-Arid Case, Water Resour. Manage., 26, 1365–1385, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-011-9963-2, 2012. a, b
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This work investigates different model types for drought prediction in a dryland region. Consequently, the performances of seasonal reservoir volume forecasts derived by a process-based and a statistical hydrological model were evaluated. The process-based approach obtained lower accuracy while resolution and reliability of drought prediction were comparable. Initialisation of the process-based model is worthwhile for more in-depth analyses, provided adequate rainfall forecasts are available.