Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1951-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1951-2019
Research article
 | 
11 Apr 2019
Research article |  | 11 Apr 2019

Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil: what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model?

Tobias Pilz, José Miguel Delgado, Sebastian Voss, Klaus Vormoor, Till Francke, Alexandre Cunha Costa, Eduardo Martins, and Axel Bronstert

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Cited articles

Alves, J. M. B., Campos, J. N. B., and Servain, J.: Reservoir Management Using Coupled Atmospheric and Hydrological Models: The Brazilian Semi-Arid Case, Water Resour. Manage., 26, 1365–1385, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-011-9963-2, 2012. a, b
Barros, F. V. F., de Maria Alves, C., Martins, E. S. P. R., and Reis Jr., D. S.: The Development and Application of Information System for Water Management and Allocation (SIGA) to a Negotiable Water Allocation Process in Brazil, in: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress, 19–23 May 2013, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA, https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784412947.128, 2013. a
Block, P. and Rajagopalan, B.: Statistical–Dynamical Approach for Streamflow Modeling at Malakal, Sudan, on the White Nile River, J. Hydrol. Eng., 14, 185–196, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2009)14:2(185), 2009. a, b
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Short summary
This work investigates different model types for drought prediction in a dryland region. Consequently, the performances of seasonal reservoir volume forecasts derived by a process-based and a statistical hydrological model were evaluated. The process-based approach obtained lower accuracy while resolution and reliability of drought prediction were comparable. Initialisation of the process-based model is worthwhile for more in-depth analyses, provided adequate rainfall forecasts are available.
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