Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1951–1971, 2019
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1951–1971, 2019

Research article 11 Apr 2019

Research article | 11 Apr 2019

Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil: what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model?

Tobias Pilz et al.

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Cited articles

Alves, J. M. B., Campos, J. N. B., and Servain, J.: Reservoir Management Using Coupled Atmospheric and Hydrological Models: The Brazilian Semi-Arid Case, Water Resour. Manage., 26, 1365–1385,, 2012. a, b
Barros, F. V. F., de Maria Alves, C., Martins, E. S. P. R., and Reis Jr., D. S.: The Development and Application of Information System for Water Management and Allocation (SIGA) to a Negotiable Water Allocation Process in Brazil, in: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress, 19–23 May 2013, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA,, 2013. a
Block, P. and Rajagopalan, B.: Statistical–Dynamical Approach for Streamflow Modeling at Malakal, Sudan, on the White Nile River, J. Hydrol. Eng., 14, 185–196,, 2009. a, b
Block, P. J., Souza Filho, F. A., Sun, L., and Kwon, H.-H.: A Streamflow Forecasting Framework using Multiple Climate and Hydrological Models, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 45, 828–843,, 2009. a, b
Boé, J., Terray, L., Habets, F., and Martin, E.: Statistical and dynamical downscaling of the Seine basin climate for hydro-meteorological studies, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1643–1655,, 2007. a
Short summary
This work investigates different model types for drought prediction in a dryland region. Consequently, the performances of seasonal reservoir volume forecasts derived by a process-based and a statistical hydrological model were evaluated. The process-based approach obtained lower accuracy while resolution and reliability of drought prediction were comparable. Initialisation of the process-based model is worthwhile for more in-depth analyses, provided adequate rainfall forecasts are available.