Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1951-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1951-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
Research article
 | 
11 Apr 2019
Research article |  | 11 Apr 2019

Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil: what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model?

Tobias Pilz, José Miguel Delgado, Sebastian Voss, Klaus Vormoor, Till Francke, Alexandre Cunha Costa, Eduardo Martins, and Axel Bronstert

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Short summary
This work investigates different model types for drought prediction in a dryland region. Consequently, the performances of seasonal reservoir volume forecasts derived by a process-based and a statistical hydrological model were evaluated. The process-based approach obtained lower accuracy while resolution and reliability of drought prediction were comparable. Initialisation of the process-based model is worthwhile for more in-depth analyses, provided adequate rainfall forecasts are available.
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