Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1951-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1951-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Apr 2019
Research article |
| 11 Apr 2019
| 11 Apr 2019
Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil: what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model?
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
José Miguel Delgado
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Sebastian Voss
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Klaus Vormoor
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Till Francke
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Alexandre Cunha Costa
Institute of Engineering and Sustainable Development, University of International Integration of the Afro-Brazilian Lusophony (UNILAB), Acarape, Ceará, Brazil
Eduardo Martins
Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources – FUNCEME, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil
Axel Bronstert
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
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- Simple GCM Simulations of Rainfall Over Northeast Brazil, Part 2: Model Performance for Historical Seasonal Forecasts F. Vasconcelos Junior et al. 10.1002/joc.8725
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- Investigating the projected changes in water balance components under climate change considering the effect of storage structures S. Nandi & M. Reddy 10.2166/wcc.2024.371
- Impact of intensive water use from farm dams on the storage dynamics in strategic reservoirs T. Lima et al. 10.1080/02626667.2023.2272669
- Rivers’ Temporal Sustainability through the Evaluation of Predictive Runoff Methods J. Molina et al. 10.3390/su12051720
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- A semi‐objective circulation pattern classification scheme for the semi‐arid Northeast Brazil P. Laux et al. 10.1002/joc.6608
- Mapping regional surface water volume variation in reservoirs in northeastern Brazil during 2009–2017 using high-resolution satellite images S. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147711
- Monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasting of large dryland catchments in Brazil A. Costa et al. 10.1007/s40333-021-0097-y
- Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil R. da Silva et al. 10.1007/s11069-020-03926-9
- Towards interpreting machine learning models for predicting soil moisture droughts F. Huang et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acdbe0
- Drought Cycle Analysis to Evaluate the Influence of a Dense Network of Small Reservoirs on Drought Evolution G. Ribeiro Neto et al. 10.1029/2021WR030799
- Total Phosphorus Modeling and Carrying Capacity of the Largest Reservoir in the Brazilian Semiarid Region M. Rocha et al. 10.1007/s11270-025-08197-3
- Predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts: Verification metrics, diagnostic plots and forecast attributes Z. Huang & T. Zhao 10.1002/wat2.1580
- LSTM-CM: a hybrid approach for natural drought prediction based on deep learning and climate models T. Vo et al. 10.1007/s00477-022-02378-w
25 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Modeling the effects of future climate and land-use changes on streamflow in a headwater basin in the Brazilian Caatinga biome A. Silva et al. 10.1080/10106049.2022.2068672
- Cactus Pear Silage to Mitigate the Effects of an Intermittent Water Supply for Feedlot Lambs: Intake, Digestibility, Water Balance and Growth Performance I. Nobre et al. 10.3390/ruminants3020011
- Literature Review on Hydrological Modeling in Semiarid Regions S. Raimundo et al. 10.24857/rgsa.v19n3-082
- Simple GCM Simulations of Rainfall Over Northeast Brazil, Part 2: Model Performance for Historical Seasonal Forecasts F. Vasconcelos Junior et al. 10.1002/joc.8725
- How to Tailor My Process‐Based Hydrological Model? Dynamic Identifiability Analysis of Flexible Model Structures T. Pilz et al. 10.1029/2020WR028042
- Effect of a reservoir network on drought propagation in a semi-arid catchment in Brazil S. van Langen et al. 10.1080/02626667.2021.1955891
- Rainfall Prediction in the State of Paraíba, Northeastern Brazil Using Generalized Additive Models L. Dantas et al. 10.3390/w12092478
- Regional-scale seasonal forecast of surface water availability in a semi-arid environment: The case of Ceará State in Northeast of Brazil E. Rottler et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102058
- Reconstructing five decades of sediment export from two glacierized high-alpine catchments in Tyrol, Austria, using nonparametric regression L. Schmidt et al. 10.5194/hess-27-1841-2023
- Investigating the projected changes in water balance components under climate change considering the effect of storage structures S. Nandi & M. Reddy 10.2166/wcc.2024.371
- Impact of intensive water use from farm dams on the storage dynamics in strategic reservoirs T. Lima et al. 10.1080/02626667.2023.2272669
- Rivers’ Temporal Sustainability through the Evaluation of Predictive Runoff Methods J. Molina et al. 10.3390/su12051720
- Development and application of a rainfall-runoff model for semi-arid regions J. Cirilo et al. 10.1590/2318-0331.252020190106
- Mesoscale Mapping of Sediment Source Hotspots for Dam Sediment Management in Data-Sparse Semi-Arid Catchments A. Smetanová et al. 10.3390/w12020396
- Accounting for operational irrigation options in mesoscale hydrological modelling of dryland environments P. Voit et al. 10.1080/02626667.2023.2187296
- Temporal evaluation and projections of meteorological droughts in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin, Southeast Africa L. Mtilatila et al. 10.3389/frwa.2022.1041452
- A semi‐objective circulation pattern classification scheme for the semi‐arid Northeast Brazil P. Laux et al. 10.1002/joc.6608
- Mapping regional surface water volume variation in reservoirs in northeastern Brazil during 2009–2017 using high-resolution satellite images S. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147711
- Monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasting of large dryland catchments in Brazil A. Costa et al. 10.1007/s40333-021-0097-y
- Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil R. da Silva et al. 10.1007/s11069-020-03926-9
- Towards interpreting machine learning models for predicting soil moisture droughts F. Huang et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acdbe0
- Drought Cycle Analysis to Evaluate the Influence of a Dense Network of Small Reservoirs on Drought Evolution G. Ribeiro Neto et al. 10.1029/2021WR030799
- Total Phosphorus Modeling and Carrying Capacity of the Largest Reservoir in the Brazilian Semiarid Region M. Rocha et al. 10.1007/s11270-025-08197-3
- Predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts: Verification metrics, diagnostic plots and forecast attributes Z. Huang & T. Zhao 10.1002/wat2.1580
- LSTM-CM: a hybrid approach for natural drought prediction based on deep learning and climate models T. Vo et al. 10.1007/s00477-022-02378-w
Discussed (preprint)
Latest update: 08 Jul 2025
Short summary
This work investigates different model types for drought prediction in a dryland region. Consequently, the performances of seasonal reservoir volume forecasts derived by a process-based and a statistical hydrological model were evaluated. The process-based approach obtained lower accuracy while resolution and reliability of drought prediction were comparable. Initialisation of the process-based model is worthwhile for more in-depth analyses, provided adequate rainfall forecasts are available.
This work investigates different model types for drought prediction in a dryland region....
