Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1611–1629, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1611-2017

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1611–1629, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1611-2017
Research article
17 Mar 2017
Research article | 17 Mar 2017

Seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Limpopo Basin: a comparison of statistical methods

Mathias Seibert et al.

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Cited articles

Belayneh, A., Adamowski, J., Khalil, B., and Ozga-Zielinski, B.: Long-term SPI drought forecasting in the Awash River Basin in Ethiopia using wavelet neural network and wavelet support vector regression models, J. Hydrol., 508, 418–429, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.10.052, 2014.
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Short summary
Seasonal early warning is vital for drought management in arid regions like the Limpopo Basin in southern Africa. This study shows that skilled seasonal forecasts can be achieved with statistical methods built upon driving factors for drought occurrence. These are the hydrological factors for current streamflow and meteorological drivers represented by anomalies in sea surface temperatures of the surrounding oceans, which combine to form unique combinations in the drought forecast models.