Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1611–1629, 2017

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1611–1629, 2017
Research article
17 Mar 2017
Research article | 17 Mar 2017

Seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Limpopo Basin: a comparison of statistical methods

Mathias Seibert et al.

Related authors

Brief communication – Impact Forecasting Could Substantially Improve the Emergency Management of Deadly Floods: Case Study July 2021 floods in Germany
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,,, 2022
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Recurrence analysis of extreme event-like data
Abhirup Banerjee, Bedartha Goswami, Yoshito Hirata, Deniz Eroglu, Bruno Merz, Jürgen Kurths, and Norbert Marwan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 213–229,,, 2021
Do small and large floods have the same drivers of change? A regional attribution analysis in Europe
Miriam Bertola, Alberto Viglione, Sergiy Vorogushyn, David Lun, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1347–1364,,, 2021
Short summary
Inventory of dams in Germany
Gustavo Andrei Speckhann, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 731–740,,, 2021
Short summary
Comparing Bayesian and traditional end-member mixing approaches for hydrograph separation in a glacierized basin
Zhihua He, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Stephan M. Weise, Doris Duethmann, Olga Kalashnikova, Abror Gafurov, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3289–3309,,, 2020
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
A two-step merging strategy for incorporating multi-source precipitation products and gauge observations using machine learning classification and regression over China
Huajin Lei, Hongyu Zhao, and Tianqi Ao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2969–2995,,, 2022
Short summary
Hydrometeorological evaluation of two nowcasting systems for Mediterranean heavy precipitation events with operational considerations
Alexane Lovat, Béatrice Vincendon, and Véronique Ducrocq
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2697–2714,,, 2022
Short summary
On the links between sub-seasonal clustering of extreme precipitation and high discharge in Switzerland and Europe
Alexandre Tuel, Bettina Schaefli, Jakob Zscheischler, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2649–2669,,, 2022
Short summary
Regional, multi-decadal analysis on the Loire River basin reveals that stream temperature increases faster than air temperature
Hanieh Seyedhashemi, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Jacob S. Diamond, Dominique Thiéry, Céline Monteil, Frédéric Hendrickx, Anthony Maire, and Florentina Moatar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2583–2603,,, 2022
Short summary
Investigating the response of leaf area index to droughts in southern African vegetation using observations and model simulations
Shakirudeen Lawal, Stephen Sitch, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Hao-Wei Wey, Pierre Friedlingstein, Hanqin Tian, and Bruce Hewitson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2045–2071,,, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Belayneh, A., Adamowski, J., Khalil, B., and Ozga-Zielinski, B.: Long-term SPI drought forecasting in the Awash River Basin in Ethiopia using wavelet neural network and wavelet support vector regression models, J. Hydrol., 508, 418–429,, 2014.
Breiman, L.: Random Forests, Mach. Learn., 45, 5–32,, 2001.
Chen, J., Li, M., and Wang, W.: Statistical Uncertainty Estimation Using Random Forests and Its Application to Drought Forecast, Math. Probl. Eng., 2012, 915053,, 2012.
Diro, G. T., Black, E., and Grimes, D. I. F.: Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains, Meteorol. Appl., 83, 73–83,, 2008.
Short summary
Seasonal early warning is vital for drought management in arid regions like the Limpopo Basin in southern Africa. This study shows that skilled seasonal forecasts can be achieved with statistical methods built upon driving factors for drought occurrence. These are the hydrological factors for current streamflow and meteorological drivers represented by anomalies in sea surface temperatures of the surrounding oceans, which combine to form unique combinations in the drought forecast models.