Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1611-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1611-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Limpopo Basin: a comparison of statistical methods
Mathias Seibert
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
GFZ – German Centre for Geosciences, Section 5.4: Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany
Bruno Merz
GFZ – German Centre for Geosciences, Section 5.4: Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany
University of Potsdam, Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, Potsdam, Germany
Heiko Apel
GFZ – German Centre for Geosciences, Section 5.4: Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany
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Latest update: 14 Dec 2024
Short summary
Seasonal early warning is vital for drought management in arid regions like the Limpopo Basin in southern Africa. This study shows that skilled seasonal forecasts can be achieved with statistical methods built upon driving factors for drought occurrence. These are the hydrological factors for current streamflow and meteorological drivers represented by anomalies in sea surface temperatures of the surrounding oceans, which combine to form unique combinations in the drought forecast models.
Seasonal early warning is vital for drought management in arid regions like the Limpopo Basin in...
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