Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1611–1629, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1611-2017

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1611–1629, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1611-2017

Research article 17 Mar 2017

Research article | 17 Mar 2017

Seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Limpopo Basin: a comparison of statistical methods

Mathias Seibert et al.

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (02 Jun 2016) by Fredrik Wetterhall
AR by Anna Wenzel on behalf of the Authors (19 Jul 2016)  Author's response
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (19 Jul 2016) by Fredrik Wetterhall
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (Editor review) (26 Sep 2016) by Fredrik Wetterhall
AR by Mathias Seibert on behalf of the Authors (03 Oct 2016)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (05 Oct 2016) by Fredrik Wetterhall
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Short summary
Seasonal early warning is vital for drought management in arid regions like the Limpopo Basin in southern Africa. This study shows that skilled seasonal forecasts can be achieved with statistical methods built upon driving factors for drought occurrence. These are the hydrological factors for current streamflow and meteorological drivers represented by anomalies in sea surface temperatures of the surrounding oceans, which combine to form unique combinations in the drought forecast models.