Articles | Volume 20, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
A systematic assessment of drought termination in the United Kingdom
Simon Parry
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford,
Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK
Department of Geography, Loughborough University,
Loughborough, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU, UK
Robert L. Wilby
Department of Geography, Loughborough University,
Loughborough, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU, UK
Christel Prudhomme
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford,
Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK
Department of Geography, Loughborough University,
Loughborough, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU, UK
Paul J. Wood
Department of Geography, Loughborough University,
Loughborough, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU, UK
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The eFLaG dataset is a nationally consistent set of projections of future climate change impacts on hydrology. eFLaG uses the latest available UK climate projections (UKCP18) run through a series of computer simulation models which enable us to produce future projections of river flows, groundwater levels and groundwater recharge. These simulations are designed for use by water resource planners and managers but could also be used for a wide range of other purposes.
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It is important to understand historic droughts in order to plan and prepare for possible future events. In this study we use the standardised streamflow index for 1891–2015 to systematically identify, characterise and rank hydrological drought events for 108 near-natural UK catchments. Results show when and where the most severe events occurred and describe events of the early 20th century, providing catchment-scale detail important for both science and planning applications of the future.
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This paper describes the multi-objective calibration approach used to create a consistent dataset of reconstructed daily river flow data for 303 catchments in the UK over 1891–2015. The modelled data perform well when compared to observations, including in the timing and the classification of drought events. This method and data will allow for long-term studies of flow trends and past extreme events that have not been previously possible, enabling water managers to better plan for the future.
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2023–2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018, 2018
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We benchmarked when and where ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is skilful in the UK across a diverse set of 314 catchments. We found ESP was skilful in the majority of catchments across all lead times up to a year ahead, but the degree of skill was strongly conditional on lead time, forecast initialization month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. Results have practical implications for current operational use of the ESP method in the UK.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Tom Matthews, L. Baker Perry, Nirakar Thapa, and Rob Wilby
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7629–7643, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, 2024
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This paper introduces the AtsMOS workflow, a new tool for improving weather forecasts in mountainous areas. By combining advanced statistical techniques with local weather data, AtsMOS can provide more accurate predictions of weather conditions. Using data from Mount Everest as an example, AtsMOS has shown promise in better forecasting hazardous weather conditions, making it a valuable tool for communities in mountainous regions and beyond.
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Margarita Choulga, Francesca Moschini, Cinzia Mazzetti, Stefania Grimaldi, Juliana Disperati, Hylke Beck, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2991–3036, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2991-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2991-2024, 2024
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CEMS_SurfaceFields_2022 dataset is a new set of high-resolution maps for land type (e.g. lake, forest), soil properties and population water needs at approximately 2 and 6 km at the Equator, covering Europe and the globe (excluding Antarctica). We describe what and how new high-resolution information can be used to create the dataset. The paper suggests that the dataset can be used as input for river, weather or other models, as well as for statistical descriptions of the region of interest.
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
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Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, 2023
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Real-time river discharge forecasts and reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) have been made publicly available, together with an evaluation of forecast skill at the global scale. Results show that GloFAS is skillful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1–3 d) and medium range (5–15 d) and skillful in over 80 % of catchments in the extended lead time (16–30 d). Skill is summarised in a new layer on the GloFAS Web Map Viewer to aid decision-making.
Kieran M. R. Hunt, Gwyneth R. Matthews, Florian Pappenberger, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5449–5472, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5449-2022, 2022
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2939–2968, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2939-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2939-2022, 2022
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Seán Donegan, Conor Murphy, Shaun Harrigan, Ciaran Broderick, Dáire Foran Quinn, Saeed Golian, Jeff Knight, Tom Matthews, Christel Prudhomme, Adam A. Scaife, Nicky Stringer, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4159–4183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, 2021
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We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.
Louise J. Slater, Bailey Anderson, Marcus Buechel, Simon Dadson, Shasha Han, Shaun Harrigan, Timo Kelder, Katie Kowal, Thomas Lees, Tom Matthews, Conor Murphy, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3897–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, 2021
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Weather and water extremes have devastating effects each year. One of the principal challenges for society is understanding how extremes are likely to evolve under the influence of changes in climate, land cover, and other human impacts. This paper provides a review of the methods and challenges associated with the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary weather and water extremes.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Lorenzo Alfieri, Christel Prudhomme, Peter Salamon, Fredrik Wetterhall, Christopher Barnard, Hannah Cloke, and Florian Pappenberger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2043–2060, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2043-2020, 2020
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A new river discharge reanalysis dataset is produced operationally by coupling ECMWF's latest global atmospheric reanalysis, ERA5, with the hydrological modelling component of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The GloFAS-ERA5 reanalysis is a global gridded dataset with a horizontal resolution of 0.1° at a daily time step and is freely available from 1979 until near real time. The evaluation against observations shows that the GloFAS-ERA5 reanalysis was skilful in 86 % of catchments.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, 2020
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We show that floods and droughts can co-occur in time across remote regions on the globe and introduce metrics that can help in quantifying concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes. We then link wet–dry extremes to major modes of climate variability (i.e. ENSO, PDO, and AMO) and provide their spatial patterns. Such concurrent extreme hydrological events may pose risks to regional hydropower production and agricultural yields.
Lucy J. Barker, Jamie Hannaford, Simon Parry, Katie A. Smith, Maliko Tanguy, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4583–4602, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4583-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4583-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
It is important to understand historic droughts in order to plan and prepare for possible future events. In this study we use the standardised streamflow index for 1891–2015 to systematically identify, characterise and rank hydrological drought events for 108 near-natural UK catchments. Results show when and where the most severe events occurred and describe events of the early 20th century, providing catchment-scale detail important for both science and planning applications of the future.
Eric Sauquet, Bastien Richard, Alexandre Devers, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3683–3710, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3683-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3683-2019, 2019
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This study aims to identify catchments and the associated water uses vulnerable to climate change. Vulnerability is considered here to be the likelihood of water restrictions which are unacceptable for agricultural uses. This study provides the first regional analysis of the stated water restrictions, highlighting heterogeneous decision-making processes; data from a national system of compensation to farmers for uninsurable damages were used to characterize past failure events.
Katie A. Smith, Lucy J. Barker, Maliko Tanguy, Simon Parry, Shaun Harrigan, Tim P. Legg, Christel Prudhomme, and Jamie Hannaford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3268, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3247-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3247-2019, 2019
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This paper describes the multi-objective calibration approach used to create a consistent dataset of reconstructed daily river flow data for 303 catchments in the UK over 1891–2015. The modelled data perform well when compared to observations, including in the timing and the classification of drought events. This method and data will allow for long-term studies of flow trends and past extreme events that have not been previously possible, enabling water managers to better plan for the future.
Lila Collet, Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Giuseppe Formetta, and Lindsay Beevers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5387–5401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018, 2018
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Floods and droughts cause significant damages and pose risks to lives worldwide. In a climate change context this work identifies hotspots across Great Britain, i.e. places expected to be impacted by an increase in floods and droughts. By the 2080s the western coast of England and Wales and northeastern Scotland would experience more floods in winter and droughts in autumn, with a higher increase in drought hazard, showing a need to adapt water management policies in light of climate change.
Rebecca Emerton, Ervin Zsoter, Louise Arnal, Hannah L. Cloke, Davide Muraro, Christel Prudhomme, Elisabeth M. Stephens, Peter Salamon, and Florian Pappenberger
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3327–3346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018, 2018
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Global overviews of upcoming flood and drought events are key for many applications from agriculture to disaster risk reduction. Seasonal forecasts are designed to provide early indications of such events weeks or even months in advance. This paper introduces GloFAS-Seasonal, the first operational global-scale seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system producing openly available forecasts of high and low river flow out to 4 months ahead.
Maliko Tanguy, Christel Prudhomme, Katie Smith, and Jamie Hannaford
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 951–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-951-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-951-2018, 2018
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Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is necessary input data for most hydrological models, used to simulate river flows. To reconstruct PET prior to the 1960s, simplified methods are needed because of lack of climate data required for complex methods. We found that the McGuinness–Bordne PET equation, which only needs temperature as input data, works best for the UK provided it is calibrated for local conditions. This method was used to produce a 5 km gridded PET dataset for the UK for 1891–2015.
Louise Arnal, Hannah L. Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Christel Prudhomme, Jessica Neumann, Blazej Krzeminski, and Florian Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018
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This paper presents a new operational forecasting system (driven by atmospheric forecasts), predicting river flow in European rivers for the next 7 months. For the first month only, these river flow forecasts are, on average, better than predictions that do not make use of atmospheric forecasts. Overall, this forecasting system can predict whether abnormally high or low river flows will occur in the next 7 months in many parts of Europe, and could be valuable for various applications.
Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Simon Parry, Katie Smith, and Maliko Tanguy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2023–2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018, 2018
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We benchmarked when and where ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is skilful in the UK across a diverse set of 314 catchments. We found ESP was skilful in the majority of catchments across all lead times up to a year ahead, but the degree of skill was strongly conditional on lead time, forecast initialization month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. Results have practical implications for current operational use of the ESP method in the UK.
Conor Murphy, Ciaran Broderick, Timothy P. Burt, Mary Curley, Catriona Duffy, Julia Hall, Shaun Harrigan, Tom K. R. Matthews, Neil Macdonald, Gerard McCarthy, Mark P. McCarthy, Donal Mullan, Simon Noone, Timothy J. Osborn, Ciara Ryan, John Sweeney, Peter W. Thorne, Seamus Walsh, and Robert L. Wilby
Clim. Past, 14, 413–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-413-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-413-2018, 2018
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This work reconstructs a continuous 305-year rainfall record for Ireland. The series reveals remarkable variability in decadal rainfall – far in excess of the typical period of digitised data. Notably, the series sheds light on exceptionally wet winters in the 1730s and wet summers in the 1750s. The derived record, one of the longest continuous series in Europe, offers a firm basis for benchmarking other long-term records and reconstructions of past climate both locally and across Europe.
Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Kerstin Stahl, Christel Prudhomme, Benedikt Heudorfer, Radek Vlnas, Monica Ionita, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Mary-Jeanne Adler, Laurie Caillouet, Claire Delus, Miriam Fendekova, Sebastien Gailliez, Jamie Hannaford, Daniel Kingston, Anne F. Van Loon, Luis Mediero, Marzena Osuch, Renata Romanowicz, Eric Sauquet, James H. Stagge, and Wai K. Wong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3001–3024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, 2017
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In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by a drought. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region around the Czech Republic was most affected, with return periods > 100 yr. In terms of deficit volumes, the drought was particularly severe around S. Germany where the event lasted notably long. Meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time. For an assessment of drought impacts on water resources, hydrological data are required in addition to meteorological indices.
Daniel Green, Dapeng Yu, Ian Pattison, Robert Wilby, Lee Bosher, Ramila Patel, Philip Thompson, Keith Trowell, Julia Draycon, Martin Halse, Lili Yang, and Tim Ryley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1-2017, 2017
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This paper demonstrates a novel method of evaluating emergency responder accessibility at the city scale during fluvial and surface water flood events of varying magnitudes. Results suggest that surface water flood events within the city of Leicester, UK, may cause more disruption to emergency responders when compared to fluvial flood events of the same magnitude. This study provides evidence to guide strategic planning for decision makers prior to and during flood events.
J. Armstrong, R. Wilby, and R. J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2511–2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2511-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2511-2015, 2015
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A criterion to categorise climate change adaptation frameworks is presented denoting characteristics of three key frameworks established in the literature: scenario–led, decision-centric and vulnerability–led. Applying the criterion, the usability of frameworks is examined in coastal Suffolk. Results indicate adaptation frameworks established in the literature are not utilised in isolation in everyday practice. In reality, hybrid approaches are utilised to overcome aspects of framework weakness.
A. Chiverton, J. Hannaford, I. P. Holman, R. Corstanje, C. Prudhomme, T. M. Hess, and J. P. Bloomfield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2395–2408, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2395-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2395-2015, 2015
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Current hydrological change detection methods are subject to a host of limitations. This paper develops a new method, temporally shifting variograms (TSVs), which characterises variability in the river flow regime using several parameters, changes in which can then be attributed to precipitation characteristics. We demonstrate the use of the method through application to 94 UK catchments, showing that periods of extremes as well as more subtle changes can be detected.
I. Giuntoli, J.-P. Vidal, C. Prudhomme, and D. M. Hannah
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-267-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-267-2015, 2015
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We assessed future changes in high and low flows globally using runoff projections from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Further, we quantified the relative size of uncertainty from GHMs and from GCMs using ANOVA. We show that GCMs are the major contributors to uncertainty overall, but GHMs increase their contribution for low flows and can equal or outweigh GCM uncertainty in snow-dominated areas for both high and low flows.
J. Crossman, M. N. Futter, P. G. Whitehead, E. Stainsby, H. M. Baulch, L. Jin, S. K. Oni, R. L. Wilby, and P. J. Dillon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5125–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5125-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5125-2014, 2014
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We projected potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments to a range of future climates. The highly variable responses in streamflow and total phosphorus (TP) were governed by geology and flow pathways, where larger catchment responses were proportional to greater soil clay content. This suggests clay content might be used as an indicator of catchment sensitivity to climate change, and highlights the need for catchment-specific management plans.
S. Harrigan, C. Murphy, J. Hall, R. L. Wilby, and J. Sweeney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1935–1952, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014, 2014
R. L. Wilby and D. Yu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3937–3955, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3937-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3937-2013, 2013
C. Prudhomme and J. Williamson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1365–1377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1365-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1365-2013, 2013
C. Prudhomme, T. Haxton, S. Crooks, C. Jackson, A. Barkwith, J. Williamson, J. Kelvin, J. Mackay, L. Wang, A. Young, and G. Watts
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 101–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-101-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-101-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Theory development
Accelerated soil moisture drought onset link to high temperatures and asymmetric responses associated with the hit timing
Variation and attribution of probable maximum precipitation of China using a high-resolution dataset in a changing climate
Drought cascades across multiple systems in Central Asia identified based on the dynamic space–time motion approach
What is the Priestley–Taylor wet-surface evaporation parameter? Testing four hypotheses
Understanding the diurnal cycle of land–atmosphere interactions from flux site observations
Breakdown in precipitation–temperature scaling over India predominantly explained by cloud-driven cooling
Historical droughts manifest an abrupt shift to a wetter Tibetan Plateau
Citizen rain gauges improve hourly radar rainfall bias correction using a two-step Kalman filter
Dynamical forcings in heavy precipitation events over Italy: lessons from the HyMeX SOP1 campaign
Water vapor isotopes indicating rapid shift among multiple moisture sources for the 2018–2019 winter extreme precipitation events in southeastern China
Spatiotemporal and cross-scale interactions in hydroclimate variability: a case-study in France
Relative humidity gradients as a key constraint on terrestrial water and energy fluxes
A climatological benchmark for operational radar rainfall bias reduction
The precipitation variability of the wet and dry season at the interannual and interdecadal scales over eastern China (1901–2016): the impacts of the Pacific Ocean
Flash drought onset over the contiguous United States: sensitivity of inventories and trends to quantitative definitions
A skewed perspective of the Indian rainfall–El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship
Imprints of evaporative conditions and vegetation type in diurnal temperature variations
A universal Standardized Precipitation Index candidate distribution function for observations and simulations
A review of the complementary principle of evaporation: from the original linear relationship to generalized nonlinear functions
Model representation of the coupling between evapotranspiration and soil water content at different depths
Combined impacts of ENSO and MJO on the 2015 growing season drought on the Canadian Prairies
Exploring the relationships between warm-season precipitation, potential evaporation, and “apparent” potential evaporation at site scale
Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event
Interannual-to-multidecadal hydroclimate variability and its sectoral impacts in northeastern Argentina
Impact of ENSO regimes on developing- and decaying-phase precipitation during rainy season in China
Variations in the correlation between teleconnections and Taiwan's streamflow
A gain–loss framework based on ensemble flow forecasts to switch the urban drainage–wastewater system management towards energy optimization during dry periods
The residence time of water in the atmosphere revisited
From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators
Impact of two different types of El Niño events on runoff over the conterminous United States
Flood sensitivity of the Bavarian Alpine Foreland since the late Middle Ages in the context of internal and external climate forcing factors
Novel indices for the comparison of precipitation extremes and floods: an example from the Czech territory
Multi-annual droughts in the English Lowlands: a review of their characteristics and climate drivers in the winter half-year
Fractional snow-covered area parameterization over complex topography
Comment on "Technical Note: On the Matt–Shuttleworth approach to estimate crop water requirements" by Lhomme et al. (2014)
A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective
Synchronicity of historical dry spells in the Southern Hemisphere
Continental moisture recycling as a Poisson process
Linking ENSO and heavy rainfall events over coastal British Columbia through a weather pattern classification
Impact of elevation and weather patterns on the isotopic composition of precipitation in a tropical montane rainforest
A new perspective on the spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture: temporal dynamics versus time-invariant contributions
Understanding hydroclimate processes in the Murray-Darling Basin for natural resources management
An analytical model for soil-atmosphere feedback
Spatial horizontal correlation characteristics in the land data assimilation of soil moisture
On the factors influencing surface-layer energy closure and their seasonal variability over the semi-arid Loess Plateau of Northwest China
Spatial moments of catchment rainfall: rainfall spatial organisation, basin morphology, and flood response
Scaling and trends of hourly precipitation extremes in two different climate zones – Hong Kong and the Netherlands
The response of Iberian rivers to the North Atlantic Oscillation
Copula-based downscaling of spatial rainfall: a proof of concept
Towards understanding hydroclimatic change in Victoria, Australia – preliminary insights into the "Big Dry"
Yi Liu, Zhimin Wang, Xinyu Zhang, Ye Zhu, Liliang Ren, Shanshui Yuan, and Junliang Jin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-199, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-199, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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A new drought characteristic, i.e., the duration of drought onset is proposed to depict how rapid drought develops. The roles of pre-drought and post-drought high temperatures on drought onset are quantified. High temperatures behave differently among areas with different vegetation conditions.
Jinghua Xiong, Shenglian Guo, Abhishek, Jiabo Yin, Chongyu Xu, Jun Wang, and Jing Guo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1873–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1873-2024, 2024
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Temporal variability and spatial heterogeneity of climate systems challenge accurate estimation of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) in China. We use high-resolution precipitation data and climate models to explore the variability, trends, and shifts of PMP under climate change. Validated with multi-source estimations, our observations and simulations show significant spatiotemporal divergence of PMP over the country, which is projected to amplify in future due to land–atmosphere coupling.
Lu Tian, Markus Disse, and Jingshui Huang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4115–4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4115-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4115-2023, 2023
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Anthropogenic global warming accelerates the drought evolution in the water cycle, increasing the unpredictability of drought. The evolution of drought is stealthy and challenging to track. This study proposes a new framework to capture the high-precision spatiotemporal progression of drought events in their evolutionary processes and characterize their feature further. It is crucial for addressing the systemic risks within the hydrological cycle associated with drought mitigation.
Richard D. Crago, Jozsef Szilagyi, and Russell J. Qualls
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3205–3220, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3205-2023, 2023
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The Priestley–Taylor equation is widely used in hydrologic, climate, and meteorological models to estimate evaporation. α represents the impact of dry air that is carried into the region; this occurs even in extensive saturated regions. Four hypotheses regarding the nature of α are evaluated. Data from 171 FLUXNET stations were used to test the hypotheses. The best-supported hypothesis sees α as a constant fraction of the distance between theoretical minimum and maximum values.
Eunkyo Seo and Paul A. Dirmeyer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5411–5429, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5411-2022, 2022
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This study presents the climatology of the observed land–atmosphere interactions on a subdaily timescale during the warm season from flux site observations. Multivariate metrics are employed to examine the land, atmosphere, and combined couplings, and a mixing diagram is adopted to understand the coevolution of the moist and thermal energy budget within the atmospheric mixed layer. The diurnal cycles of both mixing diagrams and hourly land–atmosphere couplings exhibit hysteresis.
Sarosh Alam Ghausi, Subimal Ghosh, and Axel Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4431–4446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4431-2022, 2022
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The observed response of extreme precipitation to global warming remains unclear with significant regional variations. We show that a large part of this uncertainty can be removed when the imprint of clouds in surface temperatures is removed. We used a thermodynamic systems approach to remove the cloud radiative effect from temperatures. We then found that precipitation extremes intensified with global warming at positive rates which is consistent with physical arguments and model simulations.
Yongwei Liu, Yuanbo Liu, Wen Wang, Han Zhou, and Lide Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3825–3845, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3825-2022, 2022
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This study investigated the wetting and drying of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) from variations in soil moisture (SM) droughts. We found the TP experienced an abrupt and significant wetting shift in the middle to late 1990s, not merely the steady trends given in literature. This shift is dominated by precipitation and attributed to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The wetting shift indicates a climate regime change. Our innovative work provides implications for further knowledge of the TP climate.
Punpim Puttaraksa Mapiam, Monton Methaprayun, Thom Bogaard, Gerrit Schoups, and Marie-Claire Ten Veldhuis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 775–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-775-2022, 2022
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The density of rain gauge networks plays an important role in radar rainfall bias correction. In this work, we aimed to assess the extent to which daily rainfall observations from a dense network of citizen scientists improve the accuracy of hourly radar rainfall estimates in the Tubma Basin, Thailand. Results show that citizen rain gauges significantly enhance the performance of radar rainfall bias adjustment up to a range of about 40 km from the center of the citizen rain gauge network.
Mario Marcello Miglietta and Silvio Davolio
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 627–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-627-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-627-2022, 2022
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The main results emerging from the HyMeX SOP1 campaign and in the subsequent research activity in three Italian target areas are highlighted through conceptual models and through the identification of the relevant mesoscale environmental characteristics conducive to heavy rain events.
Tao Xu, Hongxi Pang, Zhaojun Zhan, Wangbin Zhang, Huiwen Guo, Shuangye Wu, and Shugui Hou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 117–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-117-2022, 2022
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In this study, we presented stable isotopes in atmospheric water vapor and precipitation for five extreme winter precipitation events in Nanjing, southeastern China, from December 2018 to February 2019. Our results imply that multiple moisture sources and the rapid shift among them are important conditions for sustaining extreme precipitation events, especially in the relatively cold and dry winter.
Manuel Fossa, Bastien Dieppois, Nicolas Massei, Matthieu Fournier, Benoit Laignel, and Jean-Philippe Vidal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5683–5702, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5683-2021, 2021
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Hydro-climate observations (such as precipitation, temperature, and river discharge time series) reveal very complex behavior inherited from complex interactions among the physical processes that drive hydro-climate viability. This study shows how even small perturbations of a physical process can have large consequences on some others. Those interactions vary spatially, thus showing the importance of both temporal and spatial dimensions in better understanding hydro-climate variability.
Yeonuk Kim, Monica Garcia, Laura Morillas, Ulrich Weber, T. Andrew Black, and Mark S. Johnson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5175–5191, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5175-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5175-2021, 2021
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Here, we present a novel physically based evaporation model to demonstrate that vertical relative humidity (RH) gradients from the land surface to the atmosphere tend to evolve towards zero due to land–atmosphere equilibration processes. Collapsing RH gradients on daily to yearly timescales indicate an emergent land–atmosphere equilibrium, making it possible to determine evapotranspiration using only meteorological information, independent of land surface conditions and vegetation controls.
Ruben Imhoff, Claudia Brauer, Klaas-Jan van Heeringen, Hidde Leijnse, Aart Overeem, Albrecht Weerts, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4061–4080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4061-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4061-2021, 2021
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Significant biases in real-time radar rainfall products limit the use for hydrometeorological forecasting. We introduce CARROTS (Climatology-based Adjustments for Radar Rainfall in an OperaTional Setting), a set of fixed bias reduction factors to correct radar rainfall products and to benchmark other correction algorithms. When tested for 12 Dutch basins, estimated rainfall and simulated discharges with CARROTS generally outperform those using the operational mean field bias adjustments.
Tao Gao, Fuqiang Cao, Li Dan, Ming Li, Xiang Gong, and Junjie Zhan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1467–1481, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1467-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1467-2021, 2021
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The rainfall in eastern China is principally concentrated from April–September. Changes are roughly coincident with phase shifts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in both the dry (October–March) and wet (April–September) seasons, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) triggers a stronger effect on precipitation in the wet season. The interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability over eastern China is substantially modulated by drivers originating from the Pacific Ocean.
Mahmoud Osman, Benjamin F. Zaitchik, Hamada S. Badr, Jordan I. Christian, Tsegaye Tadesse, Jason A. Otkin, and Martha C. Anderson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 565–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-565-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-565-2021, 2021
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Our study of flash droughts' definitions over the United States shows that published definitions yield markedly different inventories of flash drought geography and frequency. Results suggest there are several pathways that can lead to events that are characterized as flash droughts. Lack of consensus across definitions helps to explain apparent contradictions in the literature on trends and indicates the selection of a definition is important for accurate monitoring of different mechanisms.
Justin Schulte, Frederick Policielli, and Benjamin Zaitchik
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5473–5489, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5473-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5473-2020, 2020
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Wavelet coherence is now a commonly used method for detecting scale-dependent relationships between time series. In this study, the concept of wavelet coherence is generalized to higher-order wavelet coherence methods that quantify the relationship between higher-order statistical moments associated with two time series. The methods are applied to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian monsoon to show that the ENSO–Indian monsoon relationship is impacted by ENSO nonlinearity.
Annu Panwar, Maik Renner, and Axel Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4923–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4923-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4923-2020, 2020
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Here we examine the effect of evaporative cooling across different vegetation types. Evaporation cools surface temperature significantly in short vegetation. In the forest, the high aerodynamic conductance explains 56 % of the reduced surface temperature. Therefore, the main cooling agent in the forest is the high aerodynamic conductance and not evaporation. Additionally, we propose the diurnal variation in surface temperature as being a potential indicator of evaporation in short vegetation.
Patrick Pieper, André Düsterhus, and Johanna Baehr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4541–4565, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4541-2020, 2020
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The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely accepted drought index. SPI normalizes the precipitation distribution via a probability density function (PDF). However, which PDF properly normalizes SPI is still disputed. We suggest using a previously mostly overlooked PDF, namely the exponentiated Weibull distribution. The proposed PDF ensures the normality of the index. We demonstrate this – for the first time – for all common accumulation periods in both observations and simulations.
Songjun Han and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2269–2285, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2269-2020, 2020
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The complementary principle is an important methodology for estimating actual evaporation by using routinely observed meteorological variables. This review summaries its 56-year development, focusing on how related studies have shifted from adopting a symmetric linear complementary relationship to employing generalized nonlinear functions. We also compare the polynomial and sigmoid types of generalized complementary functions and discuss their future development.
Jianxiu Qiu, Wade T. Crow, Jianzhi Dong, and Grey S. Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 581–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-581-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-581-2020, 2020
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Accurately estimating coupling of evapotranspiration (ET) and soil water content (θ) at different depths is key to investigating land–atmosphere interaction. Here we examine whether the model can accurately represent surface θ (θs) versus ET coupling and vertically integrated θ (θv) versus ET coupling. We find that all models agree with observations that θs contains slightly more information with fPET than θv. In addition, an ET scheme is crucial for accurately estimating coupling of θ and ET.
Zhenhua Li, Yanping Li, Barrie Bonsal, Alan H. Manson, and Lucia Scaff
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5057–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5057-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5057-2018, 2018
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The research started by investigating the 2015 growing season drought over the Canadian Prairies and evolved into investigating the connection between growing season rain deficit in the Prairies and MJO (20–90 days tropical oscillation in convective storms). With warm central Pacific sea surface temperature, strong MJOs in the western Pacific cause Rossby wave trains that propagate downstream and favour upper-level ridges and rain deficits over the Canadian Prairies during the growing season.
Xi Chen and Steven G. Buchberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4535–4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4535-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4535-2018, 2018
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Based on warm season data from 259 weather stations across the US, we analyze the correlation between precipitation, potential evaporation, and “apparent” potential evaporation (measured by pan evaporation). Over 93 % of the stations show negative correlation between precipitation and
apparentpotential evaporation, but no clear relationship is shown between precipitation and potential evaporation. The collected data points follow the trend of the newly derived Bouchet–Budyko curve.
Iris Manola, Bart van den Hurk, Hans De Moel, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3777–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3777-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3777-2018, 2018
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In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase and form a considerable risk of high-impact precipitation extremes. We investigate how observed extreme precipitation events would look like if they took place in a future warmer climate. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a
future weatherscenario.
Miguel A. Lovino, Omar V. Müller, Gabriela V. Müller, Leandro C. Sgroi, and Walter E. Baethgen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3155–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3155-2018, 2018
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This study examines hydroclimate variability in northeastern Argentina; advances the understanding of its links with global SST forcing; and discusses its impacts on water resources, agriculture and human settlements. Interannual-to-multidecadal variability led to frequent extreme events. Severe floods affected agriculture, livestock productivity, and forced population displacements. Droughts affected water resources, causing water and food scarcity. Increased temperatures reduced crop yields.
Qing Cao, Zhenchun Hao, Feifei Yuan, Zhenkuan Su, Ronny Berndtsson, Jie Hao, and Tsring Nyima
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5415–5426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5415-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5415-2017, 2017
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This study analyzed the rainy-season precipitation in China influenced by various ENSO types. The precipitation anomalies were investigated under different ENSO types, which may be attributed to the combined influence of anti-cyclone in the western North Pacific and the Indian monsoon. The results improve the understanding of linkages between the precipitation and global teleconnection patterns. The results suggest a certain predictability of flood and drought related to different ENSO types.
Chia-Jeng Chen and Tsung-Yu Lee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3463–3481, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3463-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3463-2017, 2017
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Regional hydro-climatic variables are modulated by large-scale, reoccurring climate oscillations. In this article, the authors provide both statistical and physical evidence of how Taiwan’s summertime streamflow is strongly correlated with specific teleconnection patterns dominating cyclonic activity in the western North Pacific. However, such correlation can be strengthened or weakened by notable climate regime shifts, illustrating the pitfall of empirical seasonal forecasting.
Vianney Courdent, Morten Grum, Thomas Munk-Nielsen, and Peter S. Mikkelsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2531–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2531-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2531-2017, 2017
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Urban drainage and wastewater systems are heavily impacted by precipitation. Hence, weather forecasts are valuable in improving their management. However, forecasts are intrinsically uncertain, especially when fine model resolution is required, which is the case for urban hydrology. Handling uncertainty is challenging for decision makers. This study presents an economic framework to support the decision-making process by providing information on when acting on the forecast is beneficial.
Ruud J. van der Ent and Obbe A. Tuinenburg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 779–790, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-779-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-779-2017, 2017
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This research seeks out to answer a fundamental question about the functioning of the water cycle in the atmosphere: how much time does a water particle spend in the atmosphere? Based on state-of-the-art data, we derive a global average residence time of water in the atmosphere of 8–10 days. We further show in this paper how the residence time of water varies in time and space. This serves to illustrate why it is so difficult to make weather predictions on timescales longer than a week.
Lucy J. Barker, Jamie Hannaford, Andrew Chiverton, and Cecilia Svensson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2483–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2483-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2483-2016, 2016
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Standardised meteorological indicators are widely used in drought monitoring, but applications to hydrological drought are less extensive. Here we assess the utility of standardised indicators for characterising drought duration, severity and propagation in a diverse set of 121 UK catchments. Spatial variations in streamflow drought characteristics reflect differences in drought propagation behaviour that are themselves largely driven by heterogeneity in catchment properties around the UK.
T. Tang, W. Li, and G. Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 27–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-27-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-27-2016, 2016
O. Böhm, J. Jacobeit, R. Glaser, and K.-F. Wetzel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4721–4734, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4721-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4721-2015, 2015
M. Müller, M. Kašpar, A. Valeriánová, L. Crhová, E. Holtanová, and B. Gvoždíková
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4641–4652, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4641-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4641-2015, 2015
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Three proposed indices combine return periods of precipitation totals or discharges with the size of the affected area. Precipitation indices also determine actual duration of either extreme or seasonally abnormal precipitation events. A unified design of the indices enables one to easily compare inter-annual and seasonal distributions of events, which is demonstrated by 50 maximum events in the Czech Republic during the period 1961-2010, including the June 2013 floods.
C. K. Folland, J. Hannaford, J. P. Bloomfield, M. Kendon, C. Svensson, B. P. Marchant, J. Prior, and E. Wallace
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2353–2375, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2353-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2353-2015, 2015
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The English Lowlands is a heavily populated, water-stressed region, which is vulnerable to long droughts typically associated with dry winters. We conduct a long-term (1910-present) quantitative analysis of precipitation, flow and groundwater droughts for the region, and then review potential climatic drivers. No single driver is dominant, but we demonstrate a physical link between La Nina conditions, winter rainfall and long droughts in the region.
N. Helbig, A. van Herwijnen, J. Magnusson, and T. Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1339–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1339-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1339-2015, 2015
W. J. Shuttleworth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4403–4406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4403-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4403-2014, 2014
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This paper explains the Matt-Shuttleworth approach clearly, simply and concisely. It shows how this approach can be implemented using a few simple equations and provides access to ancillary calculation resources that can be used for such implementation. If the crop water requirement community considered it preferable to use the Penman-Monteith equation to estimate crop water requirements directly for all crops, this could now be done using the Matt-Shuttleworth approach.
I. Masih, S. Maskey, F. E. F. Mussá, and P. Trambauer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3635-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3635-2014, 2014
D. C. Verdon-Kidd and A. S. Kiem
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2257–2264, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2257-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2257-2014, 2014
H. F. Goessling and C. H. Reick
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4133–4142, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4133-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4133-2013, 2013
P. Brigode, Z. Mićović, P. Bernardara, E. Paquet, F. Garavaglia, J. Gailhard, and P. Ribstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1455–1473, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1455-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1455-2013, 2013
D. Windhorst, T. Waltz, E. Timbe, H.-G. Frede, and L. Breuer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 409–419, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-409-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-409-2013, 2013
H. Mittelbach and S. I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2169–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2169-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2169-2012, 2012
A. J. E. Gallant, A. S. Kiem, D. C. Verdon-Kidd, R. C. Stone, and D. J. Karoly
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3033–3041, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3033-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3033-2011, 2011
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2581–2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2581-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2581-2011, 2011
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 433–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-433-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-433-2010, 2010
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Short summary
This paper identifies periods of recovery from drought in 52 river flow records from the UK between 1883 and 2013. The approach detects 459 events that vary in space and time. This large dataset allows individual events to be compared with others in the historical record. The ability to objectively appraise contemporary events against the historical record has not previously been possible, and may allow water managers to prepare for a range of outcomes at the end of a drought.
This paper identifies periods of recovery from drought in 52 river flow records from the UK...