Articles | Volume 20, issue 10
Research article 13 Oct 2016
Research article | 13 Oct 2016
Using an integrated hydrological model to estimate the usefulness of meteorological drought indices in a changing climate
Diane von Gunten et al.
No articles found.
Bernd Schalge, Gabriele Baroni, Barbara Haese, Daniel Erdal, Gernot Geppert, Pablo Saavedra, Vincent Haefliger, Harry Vereecken, Sabine Attinger, Harald Kunstmann, Olaf A. Cirpka, Felix Ament, Stefan Kollet, Insa Neuweiler, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, and Clemens Simmer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4437–4464,Short summary
In this study, a 9-year simulation of complete model output of a coupled atmosphere–land-surface–subsurface model on the catchment scale is discussed. We used the Neckar catchment in SW Germany as the basis of this simulation. Since the dataset includes the full model output, it is not only possible to investigate model behavior and interactions between the component models but also use it as a virtual truth for comparison of, for example, data assimilation experiments.
Daniel Erdal and Olaf A. Cirpka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4567–4574,Short summary
Assessing model sensitivities with ensemble-based methods can be prohibitively expensive when large parts of the plausible parameter space result in model simulations with nonrealistic results. In a previous work, we used the method of active subspaces to create a proxy model with the purpose of filtering out such unrealistic runs at low cost. This work details a notable improvement in the efficiency of the original sampling scheme, without loss of accuracy.
Daniel Erdal and Olaf A. Cirpka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3787–3805,Short summary
Assessing how sensitive uncertain model parameters are to observed data can be done by analyzing an ensemble of model simulations in which the parameters are varied. In subsurface modeling, this involves running heavy models. To reduce time wasted simulating models which show poor behavior, we use a fast polynomial model based on a simple parameter decomposition to approximate the behavior prior to full-model simulation. This largely reduces the cost for the global sensitivity analysis.
Yan Liu, Christiane Zarfl, Nandita B. Basu, Marc Schwientek, and Olaf A. Cirpka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3903–3921,Short summary
We present a model for water and sediment transport in a small catchment. For the water balance, we use a simple hydrological model that can explain the observed sudden increase in river flow between storm events. This model drives a hydraulic model of the river, which is needed to determine erosion and sedimentation in the river. Sediments are mainly generated in urban areas as the topography of the catchment is smooth. During storm events, erosion and deposition in the river becomes relevant.
Bernd Schalge, Jehan Rihani, Gabriele Baroni, Daniel Erdal, Gernot Geppert, Vincent Haefliger, Barbara Haese, Pablo Saavedra, Insa Neuweiler, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Felix Ament, Sabine Attinger, Olaf A. Cirpka, Stefan Kollet, Harald Kunstmann, Harry Vereecken, and Clemens Simmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Manuscript not accepted for further reviewShort summary
In this work we show how we used a coupled atmosphere-land surface-subsurface model at highest possible resolution to create a testbed for data assimilation. The model was able to capture all important processes and interactions between the compartments as well as showing realistic statistical behavior. This proves that using a model as a virtual truth is possible and it will enable us to develop data assimilation methods where states and parameters are updated across compartment.
D. Erdal and O. A. Cirpka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 555–569,Short summary
Groundwater recharge and hydraulic conductivity are both important properties of a groundwater system. However, models using an erroneous conductivity field can be compensated by a false recharge field to construct the same type of hydraulic head observations. In this work we show that prior knowledge is very important when estimating parameter fields from ambiguous data (such as head observations). If the prior information is reasonable, the joint parameter estimation can be possible.
D. Lemke, R. González-Pinzón, Z. Liao, T. Wöhling, K. Osenbrück, R. Haggerty, and O. A. Cirpka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3151–3163,
M. Schirmer, J. Luster, N. Linde, P. Perona, E. A. D. Mitchell, D. A. Barry, J. Hollender, O. A. Cirpka, P. Schneider, T. Vogt, D. Radny, and E. Durisch-Kaiser
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2449–2462,
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approachesImproved parameterization of snow albedo in Noah coupled with Weather Research and Forecasting: applicability to snow estimates for the Tibetan PlateauA 10 km North American precipitation and land-surface reanalysis based on the GEM atmospheric modelContribution of moisture sources to precipitation changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir RegionImpacts of land use and land cover change and reforestation on summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basinMass balance and hydrological modeling of the Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in south-central NorwayLong-term relative decline in evapotranspiration with increasing runoff on fractional land surfacesDecision tree-based detection of blowing snow events in the European AlpsChanges in the simulation of atmospheric instability over the Iberian Peninsula due to the use of 3DVAR data assimilationSimulating the evolution of the topography–climate coupled systemUsing data assimilation to optimize pedotransfer functions using field-scale in situ soil moisture observationsImpact of frozen soil processes on soil thermal characteristics at seasonal to decadal scales over the Tibetan Plateau and North ChinaThe development and persistence of soil moisture stress during drought across southwestern GermanySummary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 2: Future change in cryosphere, vegetation, and hydrologyImproving soil moisture prediction of a high-resolution land surface model by parameterising pedotransfer functions through assimilation of SMAP satellite dataEvaluating a land surface model at a water-limited site: implications for land surface contributions to droughts and heatwavesA two-stage blending approach for merging multiple satellite precipitation estimates and rain gauge observations: an experiment in the northeastern Tibetan PlateauIdentifying robust bias adjustment methods for European extreme precipitation in a multi-model pseudo-reality settingDeveloping a hydrological monitoring and sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting system for South and Southeast Asian river basinsSimulation analysis of local land atmosphere coupling in rainy season over a typical underlying surface in the Tibetan PlateauIntensification characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes in the Asian monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warmingLast-decade progress in understanding and modeling the land surface processes on the Tibetan PlateauOn the potential of variational calibration for a fully distributed hydrological model: application on a Mediterranean catchmentAccelerated hydrological cycle over the Sanjiangyuan region induces more streamflow extremes at different global warming levelsContrasting seasonal changes in total and intense precipitation in the European Alps from 1903 to 2010Technical note: Precipitation-phase partitioning at landscape scales to regional scalesData assimilation for continuous global assessment of severe conditions over terrestrial surfacesA coupled atmospheric–hydrologic modeling system with variable grid sizes for rainfall–runoff simulation in semi-humid and semi-arid watersheds: how does the coupling scale affects the results?Assessment and projection of the water budget over western Canada using convection-permitting weather research and forecasting simulationsClimate-dependent propagation of precipitation uncertainty into the water cycleA meteorological–hydrological regional ensemble forecast for an early-warning system over small Apennine catchments in Central ItalyBias in dynamically downscaled rainfall characteristics for hydroclimatic projectionsImpact of downscaled rainfall biases on projected runoff changesComparing Palmer Drought Severity Index drought assessments using the traditional offline approach with direct climate model outputsUncovering the shortcomings of a weather typing methodHigh-resolution fully coupled atmospheric–hydrological modeling: a cross-compartment regional water and energy cycle evaluationTracking the global flows of atmospheric moisture and associated uncertaintiesAssessing the factors governing the ability to predict late-spring flooding in cold-region mountain basinsRevisiting extreme precipitation amounts over southern South America and implications for the Patagonian IcefieldsInfluence of multidecadal variability on high and low flows: the case of the Seine basinTechnical Note: Evaluation of the skill in monthly-to-seasonal soil moisture forecasting based on SMAP satellite observations over the southeastern USComparison of probabilistic post-processing approaches for improving numerical weather prediction-based daily and weekly reference evapotranspiration forecastsThe impact of initial conditions on convection-permitting simulations of a flood event over complex mountainous terrainMultimodel simulation of vertical gas transfer in a temperate lakeDual state/rainfall correction via soil moisture assimilation for improved streamflow simulation: evaluation of a large-scale implementation with Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite dataThe AquiFR hydrometeorological modelling platform as a tool for improving groundwater resource monitoring over France: evaluation over a 60-year periodImpact of revegetation of the Loess Plateau of China on the regional growing season water balanceAn ensemble square root filter for the joint assimilation of surface soil moisture and leaf area index within the Land Data Assimilation System LDAS-Monde: application over the Euro-Mediterranean regionImpact of high-resolution sea surface temperature representation on the forecast of small Mediterranean catchments' hydrological responses to heavy precipitationTemporal rainfall disaggregation using a micro-canonical cascade model: possibilities to improve the autocorrelationHybrid climate datasets from a climate data evaluation system and their impacts on hydrologic simulations for the Athabasca River basin in Canada
Lian Liu, Yaoming Ma, Massimo Menenti, Rongmingzhu Su, Nan Yao, and Weiqiang Ma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4967–4981,Short summary
Albedo is a key factor in land surface energy balance, which is difficult to successfully reproduce by models. Here, we select eight snow events on the Tibetan Plateau to evaluate the universal improvements of our improved albedo scheme. The RMSE relative reductions for temperature, albedo, sensible heat flux and snow depth reach 27%, 32%, 13% and 21%, respectively, with remarkable increases in the correlation coefficients. This presents a strong potential of our scheme for modeling snow events.
Nicolas Gasset, Vincent Fortin, Milena Dimitrijevic, Marco Carrera, Bernard Bilodeau, Ryan Muncaster, Étienne Gaborit, Guy Roy, Nedka Pentcheva, Maxim Bulat, Xihong Wang, Radenko Pavlovic, Franck Lespinas, Dikra Khedhaouiria, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4917–4945,Short summary
In this paper, we highlight the importance of including land-data assimilation as well as offline precipitation analysis components in a regional reanalysis system. We also document the performance of the first multidecadal 10 km reanalysis performed with the GEM atmospheric model that can be used for seamless land-surface and hydrological modelling in North America. It is of particular interest for transboundary basins, as existing datasets often show discontinuities at the border.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Hui Peng, Shangbin Xiao, and Denghua Yan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4759–4772,Short summary
Precipitation change in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) plays a critical role in the operation and regulation of the Three Gorges Dam and the protection of residents and properties. We investigated the long-term contribution of moisture sources to precipitation changes in this region with an atmospheric moisture tracking model. We found that southwestern source regions (especially the southeastern tip of the Tibetan Plateau) are the key regions that control TGRR precipitation changes.
Wei Li, Lu Li, Jie Chen, Qian Lin, and Hua Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4531–4548,Short summary
Reforestation can influence climate, but the sensitivity of summer rainfall to reforestation is rarely investigated. We take two reforestation scenarios to assess the impacts of reforestation on summer rainfall under different reforestation proportions and explore the potential mechanisms. This study concludes that reforestation increases summer rainfall amount and extremes through thermodynamics processes, and the effects are more pronounced in populated areas than over the whole basin.
Trude Eidhammer, Adam Booth, Sven Decker, Lu Li, Michael Barlage, David Gochis, Roy Rasmussen, Kjetil Melvold, Atle Nesje, and Stefan Sobolowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4275–4297,Short summary
We coupled a detailed snow–ice model (Crocus) to represent glaciers in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro model and tested it on a well-studied glacier. Several observational systems were used to evaluate the system, i.e., satellites, ground-penetrating radar (used over the glacier for snow depth) and stake observations for glacier mass balance and discharge measurements in rivers from the glacier. Results showed improvements in the streamflow projections when including the model.
Ren Wang, Pierre Gentine, Jiabo Yin, Lijuan Chen, Jianyao Chen, and Longhui Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3805–3818,Short summary
Assessment of changes in the global water cycle has been a challenge. This study estimated long-term global latent heat and sensible heat fluxes for recent decades using machine learning and ground observations. The results found that the decline in evaporative fraction was typically accompanied by an increase in long-term runoff in over 27.06 % of the global land areas. The observation-driven findings emphasized that surface vegetation has great impacts in regulating water and energy cycles.
Zhipeng Xie, Weiqiang Ma, Yaoming Ma, Zeyong Hu, Genhou Sun, Yizhe Han, Wei Hu, Rongmingzhu Su, and Yixi Fan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3783–3804,Short summary
Ground information on the occurrence of blowing snow has been sorely lacking because direct observations of blowing snow are sparse in time and space. In this paper, we investigated the potential capability of the decision tree model to detect blowing snow events in the European Alps. Trained with routine meteorological observations, the decision tree model can be used as an efficient tool to detect blowing snow occurrences across different regions requiring limited meteorological variables.
Santos J. González-Rojí, Sheila Carreno-Madinabeitia, Jon Sáenz, and Gabriel Ibarra-Berastegi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3471–3492,Short summary
The simulation of precipitation extreme events is a known problem in modelling. That is why the atmospheric conditions favourable for its development as simulated by two WRF experiments are evaluated in this paper. The experiment including 3DVAR data assimilation outperforms the one without in simulating the TT index, CAPE, and CIN over the Iberian Peninsula. The ingredients for convective precipitation in winter are found at the Atlantic coast, but in summer they are at the Mediterranean coast.
Kyungrock Paik and Won Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2459–2474,Short summary
Climate, topography, and tectonics evolve together. To simulate their co-evolution, a fully coupled computer simulation model between local climate and topography is developed in this study. We simulated how the mountain development enhances local rainfall and its feedback on topography through stronger erosion. We found that the evolution of the coupled system can be more complicated than previously thought. The channel concavity on the windward side becomes lower as the wind grows.
Elizabeth Cooper, Eleanor Blyth, Hollie Cooper, Rich Ellis, Ewan Pinnington, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2445–2458,Short summary
Soil moisture estimates from land surface models are important for forecasting floods, droughts, weather, and climate trends. We show that by combining model estimates of soil moisture with measurements from field-scale, ground-based sensors, we can improve the performance of the land surface model in predicting soil moisture values.
Qian Li, Yongkang Xue, and Ye Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2089–2107,Short summary
Most land surface models have difficulty in capturing the freeze–thaw cycle in the Tibetan Plateau and North China. This paper introduces a physically more realistic and efficient frozen soil module (FSM) into the SSiB3 model (SSiB3-FSM). A new and more stable semi-implicit scheme and a physics-based freezing–thawing scheme were applied, and results show that SSiB3-FSM can be used as an effective model for soil thermal characteristics at seasonal to decadal scales over frozen ground.
Erik Tijdeman and Lucas Menzel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2009–2025,Short summary
Low amounts of soil moisture (SM) in the root zone negatively affect crop health. We characterized the development and duration of SM stress across the croplands of southwestern Germany. Development time mainly varied within drought years and was related to the available water-holding capacity of the root zone. Duration varied both within and between drought years and was especially high in 2018. Sensitivity analyses showed that (controls on) SM stress and SM drought characteristics differ.
Chris M. DeBeer, Howard S. Wheater, John W. Pomeroy, Alan G. Barr, Jennifer L. Baltzer, Jill F. Johnstone, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ronald E. Stewart, Masaki Hayashi, Garth van der Kamp, Shawn Marshall, Elizabeth Campbell, Philip Marsh, Sean K. Carey, William L. Quinton, Yanping Li, Saman Razavi, Aaron Berg, Jeffrey J. McDonnell, Christopher Spence, Warren D. Helgason, Andrew M. Ireson, T. Andrew Black, Mohamed Elshamy, Fuad Yassin, Bruce Davison, Allan Howard, Julie M. Thériault, Kevin Shook, Michael N. Demuth, and Alain Pietroniro
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1849–1882,Short summary
This article examines future changes in land cover and hydrological cycling across the interior of western Canada under climate conditions projected for the 21st century. Key insights into the mechanisms and interactions of Earth system and hydrological process responses are presented, and this understanding is used together with model application to provide a synthesis of future change. This has allowed more scientifically informed projections than have hitherto been available.
Ewan Pinnington, Javier Amezcua, Elizabeth Cooper, Simon Dadson, Rich Ellis, Jian Peng, Emma Robinson, Ross Morrison, Simon Osborne, and Tristan Quaife
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1617–1641,Short summary
Land surface models are important tools for translating meteorological forecasts and reanalyses into real-world impacts at the Earth's surface. We show that the hydrological predictions, in particular soil moisture, of these models can be improved by combining them with satellite observations from the NASA SMAP mission to update uncertain parameters. We find a 22 % reduction in error at a network of in situ soil moisture sensors after combining model predictions with satellite observations.
Mengyuan Mu, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna M. Ukkola, Andy J. Pitman, Teresa E. Gimeno, Belinda E. Medlyn, Dani Or, Jinyan Yang, and David S. Ellsworth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 447–471,Short summary
Land surface model (LSM) is a critical tool to study land responses to droughts and heatwaves, but lacking comprehensive observations limited past model evaluations. Here we use a novel dataset at a water-limited site, evaluate a typical LSM with a range of competing model hypotheses widely used in LSMs and identify marked uncertainty due to the differing process assumptions. We show the extensive observations constrain model processes and allow better simulated land responses to these extremes.
Yingzhao Ma, Xun Sun, Haonan Chen, Yang Hong, and Yinsheng Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 359–374,Short summary
A two-stage blending approach is proposed for the data fusion of multiple satellite precipitation estimates (SPEs), which firstly reduces the systematic errors of original SPEs based on a Bayesian correction model and then merges the bias-corrected SPEs with a Bayesian weighting model. The model is evaluated in the warm season of 2010–2014 in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Results show that the blended SPE is greatly improved compared with the original SPEs, even in heavy rainfall events.
Torben Schmith, Peter Thejll, Peter Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Bo Christiansen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Marianne Sloth Madsen, and Christian Steger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 273–290,Short summary
European extreme precipitation is expected to change in the future; this is based on climate model projections. But, since climate models have errors, projections are uncertain. We study this uncertainty in the projections by comparing results from an ensemble of 19 climate models. Results can be used to give improved estimates of future extreme precipitation for Europe.
Yifan Zhou, Benjamin F. Zaitchik, Sujay V. Kumar, Kristi R. Arsenault, Mir A. Matin, Faisal M. Qamer, Ryan A. Zamora, and Kiran Shakya
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–61,Short summary
South and Southeast Asia face significant food insecurity and hydrological hazards. Here we introduce a South and Southeast Asia hydrological monitoring and sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S) to help local governments and decision-makers prepare for extreme hydroclimatic events. The monitoring system captures soil moisture variability well in most regions, and the forecasting system offers skillful prediction of soil moisture variability 2–3 months in advance, on average.
Genhou Sun, Zeyong Hu, Yaoming Ma, Zhipeng Xie, Jiemin Wang, and Song Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5937–5951,Short summary
We investigate the influence of soil conditions on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) thermodynamics and convective cloud formations over a typical underlying surface, based on a series of simulations on a sunny day in the Tibetan Plateau, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The real-case simulation and sensitivity simulations indicate that the soil moisture could have a strong impact on PBL thermodynamics, which may be favorable for the convective cloud formations.
Jeong-Bae Kim and Deg-Hyo Bae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5799–5820,Short summary
We examine changes in hydroclimatic extremes for different climate zones in Asia in response to 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming. Our results indicate consistent changes in temperature extremes and high precipitation (and maximum runoff) extremes across Asia. Extra 0.5 °C warming will lead to enhanced regional hydroclimatic extremes, especially in cold (and polar) climate zones. However, hydroclimatic sensitivities can differ based on regional climate characteristics and types of extreme variables.
Hui Lu, Donghai Zheng, Kun Yang, and Fan Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5745–5758,Short summary
The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as the Asian water tower, plays an important role in the regional climate system, while the land surface process is a key component through which the TP impacts the water and energy cycles. In this paper, we reviewed the progress achieved in the last decade in understanding and modeling the land surface processes on the TP. Based on this review, perspectives on the further improvement of land surface modelling on the TP are also provided.
Maxime Jay-Allemand, Pierre Javelle, Igor Gejadze, Patrick Arnaud, Pierre-Olivier Malaterre, Jean-Alain Fine, and Didier Organde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5519–5538,Short summary
This study contributes to flash flood prediction using a hydrological model. The model describes the spatial properties of the watersheds with hundreds of unknown parameters. The Gardon d'Anduze watershed is chosen as the study benchmark. A sophisticated numerical algorithm and the downstream discharge measurements make the identification of the model parameters possible. Results provide better model predictions and relevant spatial variability of some parameters inside this watershed.
Peng Ji, Xing Yuan, Feng Ma, and Ming Pan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5439–5451,Short summary
By performing high-resolution land surface modeling driven by the latest CMIP6 climate models, we find both the dry streamflow extreme over the drought-prone Yellow River headwater and the wet streamflow extreme over the flood-prone Yangtze River headwater will increase under 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C global warming levels and emphasize the importance of considering ecological changes (i.e., vegetation greening and CO2 physiological forcing) in the hydrological projection.
Martin Ménégoz, Evgenia Valla, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Bruno Wilhelm, Hubert Gallée, Xavier Fettweis, Samuel Morin, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377,Short summary
The study investigates precipitation changes in the Alps, using observations and a 7 km resolution climate simulation over 1900–2010. An increase in mean precipitation is found in winter over the Alps, whereas a drying occurred in summer in the surrounding plains. A general increase in the daily annual maximum of precipitation is evidenced (20 to 40 % per century), suggesting an increase in extreme events that is significant only when considering long time series, typically 50 to 80 years.
Elissa Lynn, Aaron Cuthbertson, Minxue He, Jordi P. Vasquez, Michael L. Anderson, Peter Coombe, John T. Abatzoglou, and Benjamin J. Hatchett
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5317–5328,Short summary
Precipitation partitioning across western US landscapes (1948–present) is estimated by combining gridded precipitation data with freezing level and precipitation data from an atmospheric reanalysis. Spatial patterns and trends in the precipitation phase over elevational and latitudinal gradients are examined. The largest increases in precipitation falling as rain occur during spring. This technique can be used as a diagnostic indicator to inform adaptive water management strategy development.
Clément Albergel, Yongjun Zheng, Bertrand Bonan, Emanuel Dutra, Nemesio Rodríguez-Fernández, Simon Munier, Clara Draper, Patricia de Rosnay, Joaquin Muñoz-Sabater, Gianpaolo Balsamo, David Fairbairn, Catherine Meurey, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4291–4316,Short summary
LDAS-Monde is a global offline land data assimilation system (LDAS) that jointly assimilates satellite-derived observations of surface soil moisture (SSM) and leaf area index (LAI) into the ISBA (Interaction between Soil Biosphere and Atmosphere) land surface model (LSM). This study demonstrates that LDAS-Monde is able to detect, monitor and forecast the impact of extreme weather on land surface states.
Jiyang Tian, Jia Liu, Yang Wang, Wei Wang, Chuanzhe Li, and Chunqi Hu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3933–3949,Short summary
The aim of this study is to explore the appropriate coupling scale of the coupled atmospheric–hydrologic modeling system, which is established by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the gridded Hebei model with different sizes. The results show that the flood simulation results may not always be improved with higher-dimension precision and a more complicated system, and the grid size selection has a strong relationship with the rainfall evenness.
Sopan Kurkute, Zhenhua Li, Yanping Li, and Fei Huo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3677–3697,Short summary
Our research has analyzed the surface water budget and atmospheric water vapour budget over western Canada from a set of convection-permitting regional climate simulations. The pseudo-global-warming simulation shows a great increase in evapotranspiration and an enhanced water cycle. We found that the orographic effect on the water vapour budget is significant over the Saskatchewan River basin, indicating the need for high-resolution regional climate modelling to reflect the effects.
Ali Fallah, Sungmin O, and Rene Orth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3725–3735,Short summary
We find that simulated runoff values are highly dependent on the accuracy of precipitation inputs. In contrast, simulated evapotranspiration is generally much less influenced in our comparatively wet study region. We also find that the impact of precipitation uncertainty on simulated runoff increases towards wetter regions, while the opposite is observed in the case of evapotranspiration.
Rossella Ferretti, Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Valentina Colaiuda, Vincenzo Mazzarella, Ida Maiello, Marco Verdecchia, and Gianluca Redaelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3135–3156,Short summary
Floods and severe rainfall are among the major natural hazards in the Mediterranean basin. Though precipitation weather forecasts have improved considerably, precipitation estimation is still affected by errors that can deteriorate the hydrological forecast. To improve hydrological forecasting, a regional-scale meteorological–hydrological ensemble is presented. This allows for predicting potential severe events days in advance and for characterizing the uncertainty of the hydrological forecast.
Nicholas J. Potter, Francis H. S. Chiew, Stephen P. Charles, Guobin Fu, Hongxing Zheng, and Lu Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2963–2979,Short summary
There is a growing need for information about possible changes to water resource availability in the future due to climate change. Large-scale outputs from global climate models need to be translated to finer-resolution spatial scales before hydrological modelling. Biases in this downscaled data often need to be corrected. We show that usual bias correction methods can retain residual biases in multi-day occurrences of rainfall, which can result in biases in modelled runoff.
Stephen P. Charles, Francis H. S. Chiew, Nicholas J. Potter, Hongxing Zheng, Guobin Fu, and Lu Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2981–2997,Short summary
This paper assesses the suitability of bias-corrected (BC) WRF daily rainfall across the state of Victoria, Australia, for input to hydrological models to determine plausible climate change impacts on runoff. It compares rainfall and runoff changes using BC WRF with those obtained from empirical scaling (ES) using raw WRF changes. It concludes that BC-derived changes are more plausible than ES-derived changes but that remaining biases in BC WRF daily data add uncertainty to runoff projections.
Yuting Yang, Shulei Zhang, Michael L. Roderick, Tim R. McVicar, Dawen Yang, Wenbin Liu, and Xiaoyan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2921–2930,Short summary
Many previous studies using offline drought indices report that future warming will increase worldwide drought. However, this contradicts observations/projections of vegetation greening and increased runoff. We resolved this paradox by re-calculating the same drought indices using direct climate model outputs and find no increase in future drought as the climate warms. We also find that accounting for the impact of CO2 on plant transpiration avoids the previous overestimation of drought.
Els Van Uytven, Jan De Niel, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2671–2686,Short summary
In recent years many methods have been developed for the statistical downscaling of climate model outputs. Each statistical downscaling method has strengths and limitations, but those are rarely evaluated. This paper illustrates an approach to evaluating the skill of statistical downscaling methods for the specific purpose of impact analysis in hydrology.
Benjamin Fersch, Alfonso Senatore, Bianca Adler, Joël Arnault, Matthias Mauder, Katrin Schneider, Ingo Völksch, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2457–2481,
Obbe A. Tuinenburg and Arie Staal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2419–2435,Short summary
Several models exist to track water through the atmosphere from its evaporation location to the next rain location. These models are typically driven by atmospheric wind and humidity data. Recently, a new version of these driving data sets has become available, with a higher spatial resolution of about 25 km. Here, we test the assumptions of these atmospheric moisture tracking models, given the high-resolution forcing data and find that the vertical mixing assumptions are the most important.
Vincent Vionnet, Vincent Fortin, Etienne Gaborit, Guy Roy, Maria Abrahamowicz, Nicolas Gasset, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2141–2165,Short summary
The 2013 Alberta flood in Canada was typical of late-spring floods in mountain basins combining intense precipitation with rapid melting of late-lying snowpack. Hydrological simulations of this event are mainly influenced by (i) the spatial resolution of the atmospheric forcing due to the best estimate of precipitation at the kilometer scale and changes in turbulent fluxes contributing to snowmelt and (ii) uncertainties in initial snow conditions at high elevations. Soil texture has less impact.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2016,Short summary
Patagonia is thought to be one of the wettest – if not the wettest – places on Earth. The plausibility of these numbers has never been carefully scrutinized, despite the significance of this topic to our understanding of observed environmental changes, such as glacier recession. The revised precipitation values are significantly smaller than the previously reported values, thus opening up a new perspective on the Patagonian glaciers' response to climate change.
Rémy Bonnet, Julien Boé, and Florence Habets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1611–1631,Short summary
In this paper, the multidecadal variations of the Seine basin since the 1850s are investigated, based on a new hydrometeorological reconstruction derived from hydrological modeling. The hydrological and climatic mechanisms underlying these variations are highlighted. The analysis of the hydrometeorological reconstruction shows that high and low flows are influenced by these multidecadal hydroclimate variations.
Amirhossein Mazrooei, Arumugam Sankarasubramanian, and Venkat Lakshmi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1073–1079,Short summary
Reliable forecasts of soil moisture conditions help water-related sectors to better prepare for drought and flooding events. This paper describes an approach in which monthly-to-seasonal soil moisture forecasts are developed and compared to remotely sensed observations from SMAP satellite. Our results reveal a promising skill in forecasting long-range soil moisture conditions, suggesting its great potential for real-time and practical applications.
Hanoi Medina and Di Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1011–1030,Short summary
Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) forecasts play an important role in agricultural, environmental, and water management. This study evaluated probabilistic post-processing approaches for improving daily and weekly ensemble ET0 forecasting based on single or multiple numerical weather predictions. The three approaches used consistently improved the skill and reliability of the ET0 forecasts compared with the conventional method, due to the adjustment in the spread of the ensemble forecast.
Lu Li, Marie Pontoppidan, Stefan Sobolowski, and Alfonso Senatore
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 771–791,Short summary
We assessed the impact of initial conditions on convection-permitting simulations of a flood event over mountainous terrain. The calibrated convection-permitting model performs better than the simpler conceptual model. Discharge is slightly more sensitive to spin-up time than precipitation due to the influence of soil moisture. A maximum of 0.5 m of snow is converted to runoff irrespective of the initial snow depth, and this snowmelt contributes to discharge mostly during peak flow period.
Sofya Guseva, Tobias Bleninger, Klaus Jöhnk, Bruna Arcie Polli, Zeli Tan, Wim Thiery, Qianlai Zhuang, James Anthony Rusak, Huaxia Yao, Andreas Lorke, and Victor Stepanenko
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 697–715,Short summary
We compare lake models with different complexity focusing on the key factors (e.g., eddy diffusivity) which can have an influence on the distribution of the dissolved gases in water. For the first time, we compare the biogeochemical modules in the ALBM and LAKE models. The result showed a good agreement with observed data (O2), but not for CO2. It indicates the need to improve the representation of physical and biogeochemical processes in lake models.
Yixin Mao, Wade T. Crow, and Bart Nijssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 615–631,Short summary
The new generation of satellite soil moisture observations are used to correct the streamflow in a regional-scale river basin simulated by a mathematical model. The correction is done via both the direct updating of soil moisture and correction of rainfall input. Results show some streamflow improvement, but the magnitude is small. A larger improvement will need future generations of even higher-quality satellite soil moisture data and better process representation in the mathematical model.
Jean-Pierre Vergnes, Nicolas Roux, Florence Habets, Philippe Ackerer, Nadia Amraoui, François Besson, Yvan Caballero, Quentin Courtois, Jean-Raynald de Dreuzy, Pierre Etchevers, Nicolas Gallois, Delphine J. Leroux, Laurent Longuevergne, Patrick Le Moigne, Thierry Morel, Simon Munier, Fabienne Regimbeau, Dominique Thiéry, and Pascal Viennot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 633–654,Short summary
The AquiFR hydrogeological modelling platform aims to provide short-term-to-seasonal hydrological forecasts over France for daily water management and long-term simulations for climate impact studies. The results described in this study confirm the feasibility of gathering independent groundwater models into the same numerical tool. This new tool encourages the development of groundwater modelling, and it has the potential to be valuable for many operational and research applications.
Jun Ge, Andrew J. Pitman, Weidong Guo, Beilei Zan, and Congbin Fu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 515–533,Short summary
We investigate the impact of revegetation on the hydrology of the Loess Plateau based on high-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We find that past revegetation has caused decreased runoff and soil moisture with increased evapotranspiration as well as little response from rainfall. WRF suggests that further revegetation could aggravate this water imbalance. We caution that further revegetation might be unsustainable in this region.
Bertrand Bonan, Clément Albergel, Yongjun Zheng, Alina Lavinia Barbu, David Fairbairn, Simon Munier, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 325–347,Short summary
This paper introduces an ensemble square root filter (EnSRF), a deterministic ensemble Kalman filter, for jointly assimilating observations of the surface soil moisture and leaf area index in the Land Data Assimilation System LDAS-Monde. LDAS-Monde constrains the Interaction between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model to improve the reanalysis of land surface variables. EnSRF is compared with the simplified extended Kalman filter over the European Mediterranean region.
Alfonso Senatore, Luca Furnari, and Giuseppe Mendicino
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 269–291,Short summary
This paper addresses the question of how different resolutions of sea surface temperature (SST) representation affect regional operational hydro-meteorological forecasting chains over coastal Mediterranean catchments by analysing two different severe events that affected southern Italy in 2015. Even if the benefits of high-resolution SST representation are hidden by other sources of uncertainty, the experiments highlight that the impact is non-negligible in most cases.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 169–188,Short summary
Simulation of highly dynamic floods requires high-resolution rainfall time series. Observed time series of that kind are often too short; rainfall generation is the only solution. The applied rainfall generator tends to underestimate the process memory of the rainfall. By modifications of the rainfall generator and a subsequent optimisation method the process memory is improved significantly. Flood simulations are expected to be more trustable using the rainfall time series generated like this.
Hyung-Il Eum and Anil Gupta
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5151–5173,Short summary
As numerous high-resolution historical gridded climate datasets are available in Alberta, many previous works have simply combined multiple climate datasets without pre-assessment, which may cause unreliable outputs. This study suggested a systematic climate data evaluation system and generated a new performance-based climate dataset. This study proved that the new dataset is a better representation of historical climate conditions, enhancing hydrologic simulations.
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We compare seven meteorological drought indices that are commonly used to predict future droughts. Our goal is to assess the reliability of these indices to predict hydrological impacts of droughts under changing climatic conditions, using an integrated hydrological model. Drought indices are able to identify the timing of hydrological impacts of droughts in present and future climate. However, these indices can not estimate the severity of hydrological impacts of droughts in future climate.
We compare seven meteorological drought indices that are commonly used to predict future...