Articles | Volume 26, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3103-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3103-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Jun 2022
Research article |
| 20 Jun 2022
| 20 Jun 2022
Seasonal forecasting of lake water quality and algal bloom risk using a continuous Gaussian Bayesian network
Leah A. Jackson-Blake
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), 0599 Oslo, Norway
François Clayer
Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), 0599 Oslo, Norway
Sigrid Haande
Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), 0599 Oslo, Norway
James E. Sample
Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), 0599 Oslo, Norway
S. Jannicke Moe
Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), 0599 Oslo, Norway
Related authors
François Clayer, Leah Jackson-Blake, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Muhammed Shikhani, Andrew French, Tadhg Moore, James Sample, Magnus Norling, Maria-Dolores Frias, Sixto Herrera, Elvira de Eyto, Eleanor Jennings, Karsten Rinke, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1361–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the predictive skill of forecasting tools over the next season for water discharge and lake temperature. Tools were forced with seasonal weather predictions; however, most of the prediction skill originates from legacy effects and not from seasonal weather predictions. Yet, when skills from seasonal weather predictions are present, additional skill comes from interaction effects. Skilful lake seasonal predictions require better weather predictions and realistic antecedent conditions.
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Elvira de Eyto, Andrew S. French, María Dolores Frías, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Tadhg Moore, Laura Puértolas, Russell Poole, Karsten Rinke, Muhammed Shikhani, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1389–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality, and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision-making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.
Magnus Dahler Norling, Leah Amber Jackson-Blake, José-Luis Guerrero Calidonio, and James Edward Sample
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1885–1897, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1885-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1885-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In order to allow researchers to quickly prototype and build models of natural systems, we have created the Mobius framework. Such models can, for instance, be used to ask questions about what the impacts of land-use changes are to water quality in a river or lake, or the response of biogeochemical systems to climate change. The Mobius framework makes it quick to build models that run fast, which enables the user to explore many different scenarios and model formulations.
Jacqueline Kay Knutson, François Clayer, Peter Dörsch, Sebastian Westermann, and Heleen A. de Wit
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-184, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-184, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
Thawing permafrost at Iškoras in northern Norway is transforming peat plateaus into thermokarst ponds and wetlands. These small ponds show striking oversaturation of dissolved greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), partly due to organic matter processing. Streams nearby emit CO2 driven by turbulence. As permafrost disappears, carbon dynamics will change, potentially increasing emissions of CH4. This study highlights the need to integrate these changes into climate models.
François Clayer, Jan Erik Thrane, Kuria Ndungu, Andrew King, Peter Dörsch, and Thomas Rohrlack
Biogeosciences, 21, 1903–1921, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1903-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Determination of dissolved greenhouse gas (GHG) in freshwater allows us to estimate GHG fluxes. Mercuric chloride (HgCl2) is used to preserve water samples prior to GHG analysis despite its environmental and health impacts and interferences with water chemistry in freshwater. Here, we tested the effects of HgCl2, two substitutes and storage time on GHG in water from two boreal lakes. Preservation with HgCl2 caused overestimation of CO2 concentration with consequences for GHG flux estimation.
François Clayer, Leah Jackson-Blake, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Muhammed Shikhani, Andrew French, Tadhg Moore, James Sample, Magnus Norling, Maria-Dolores Frias, Sixto Herrera, Elvira de Eyto, Eleanor Jennings, Karsten Rinke, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1361–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the predictive skill of forecasting tools over the next season for water discharge and lake temperature. Tools were forced with seasonal weather predictions; however, most of the prediction skill originates from legacy effects and not from seasonal weather predictions. Yet, when skills from seasonal weather predictions are present, additional skill comes from interaction effects. Skilful lake seasonal predictions require better weather predictions and realistic antecedent conditions.
Y. Liu, Q. Liu, J. E. Sample, K. Hancke, and A.-B. Salberg
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-3-2022, 439–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2022-439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2022-439-2022, 2022
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Elvira de Eyto, Andrew S. French, María Dolores Frías, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Tadhg Moore, Laura Puértolas, Russell Poole, Karsten Rinke, Muhammed Shikhani, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1389–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality, and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision-making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.
Magnus Dahler Norling, Leah Amber Jackson-Blake, José-Luis Guerrero Calidonio, and James Edward Sample
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1885–1897, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1885-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1885-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In order to allow researchers to quickly prototype and build models of natural systems, we have created the Mobius framework. Such models can, for instance, be used to ask questions about what the impacts of land-use changes are to water quality in a river or lake, or the response of biogeochemical systems to climate change. The Mobius framework makes it quick to build models that run fast, which enables the user to explore many different scenarios and model formulations.
François Clayer, Yves Gélinas, André Tessier, and Charles Gobeil
Biogeosciences, 17, 4571–4589, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4571-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4571-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we quantified the sediment production of methane and carbon dioxide in lake sediments to better characterize the nature of the organic matter at the origin of these two greenhouse gases. We demonstrate that the production of these gases is not adequately represented in models for deep lake sediments. We thus propose to improve the representation of organic matter degradation reactions in current models for improving predictions of greenhouse gas cycling in aquatic sediments.
Related subject area
Subject: Rivers and Lakes | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Assessing national exposure to and impact of glacial lake outburst floods considering uncertainty under data sparsity
Modeling Lake Titicaca's water balance: the dominant roles of precipitation and evaporation
Effect of floodplain trees on apparent friction coefficient in straight compound channels
The role of neotectonics and climate variability in the Pleistocene-to-Holocene hydrological evolution of the Fuente de Piedra playa lake (southern Iberian Peninsula)
On the cause of large daily river flow fluctuations in the Mekong River
How seasonal hydroclimate variability drives the triple oxygen and hydrogen isotope composition of small lake systems in semiarid environments
A hybrid data-driven approach to analyze the drivers of lake level dynamics
Estimating velocity distribution and flood discharge at river bridges using entropy theory – insights from computational fluid dynamics flow fields
Learning from a large-scale calibration effort of multiple lake models
Isotopic evaluation of the National Water Model reveals missing agricultural irrigation contributions to streamflow across the western United States
The influence of permafrost and other environmental controls on stream thermal sensitivity across Yukon, Canada
Timing of spring events changes under modelled future climate scenarios in a mesotrophic lake
Effects of high-quality elevation data and explanatory variables on the accuracy of flood inundation mapping via Height Above Nearest Drainage
Understanding the compound flood risk along the coast of the contiguous United States
Benchmarking high-resolution hydrologic model performance of long-term retrospective streamflow simulations in the contiguous United States
Sources of skill in lake temperature, discharge and ice-off seasonal forecasting tools
Past and future climate change effects on the thermal regime and oxygen solubility of four peri-alpine lakes
Exploring tracer information in a small stream to improve parameter identifiability and enhance the process interpretation in transient storage models
How do inorganic nitrogen processing pathways change quantitatively at daily, seasonal, and multiannual scales in a large agricultural stream?
Spatially referenced Bayesian state-space model of total phosphorus in western Lake Erie
Future water temperature of rivers in Switzerland under climate change investigated with physics-based models
Physical controls and a priori estimation of raising land surface elevation across the southwestern Bangladesh delta using tidal river management
Evaluation and interpretation of convolutional long short-term memory networks for regional hydrological modelling
Synthesizing the impacts of baseflow contribution on concentration–discharge (C–Q) relationships across Australia using a Bayesian hierarchical model
Calibrating 1D hydrodynamic river models in the absence of cross-section geometry using satellite observations of water surface elevation and river width
A global algorithm for identifying changing streamflow regimes: application to Canadian natural streams (1966–2010)
Streamflow drought: implication of drought definitions and its application for drought forecasting
Quantifying floodwater impacts on a lake water budget via volume-dependent transient stable isotope mass balance
River runoff in Switzerland in a changing climate – changes in moderate extremes and their seasonality
River runoff in Switzerland in a changing climate – runoff regime changes and their time of emergence
Machine-learning methods for stream water temperature prediction
Bathymetry and latitude modify lake warming under ice
Lake thermal structure drives interannual variability in summer anoxia dynamics in a eutrophic lake over 37 years
Reservoir evaporation in a Mediterranean climate: comparing direct methods in Alqueva Reservoir, Portugal
Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming
Anthropogenic influence on the Rhine water temperatures
A new form of the Saint-Venant equations for variable topography
Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy
Assessment of the geomorphic effectiveness of controlled floods in a braided river using a reduced-complexity numerical model
Worldwide lake level trends and responses to background climate variation
Modeling inorganic carbon dynamics in the Seine River continuum in France
A data-based predictive model for spatiotemporal variability in stream water quality
Flooding in the Mekong Delta: the impact of dyke systems on downstream hydrodynamics
Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)
Historical modelling of changes in Lake Erken thermal conditions
Improving lake mixing process simulations in the Community Land Model by using K profile parameterization
Upgraded global mapping information for earth system modelling: an application to surface water depth at the ECMWF
Sediment transport modelling in riverine environments: on the importance of grain-size distribution, sediment density, and suspended sediment concentrations at the upstream boundary
Replication of ecologically relevant hydrological indicators following a modified covariance approach to hydrological model parameterization
Lidar-based approaches for estimating solar insolation in heavily forested streams
Huili Chen, Qiuhua Liang, Jiaheng Zhao, and Sudan Bikash Maharjan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 733–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-733-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-733-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause serious damage. To assess their risks, we developed an innovative framework using remote sensing, Bayesian models, flood modelling, and open-source data. This enables us to evaluate GLOFs on a national scale, despite limited data and challenges accessing high-altitude lakes. We evaluated dangerous lakes in Nepal, identifying those most at risk. This work is crucial for understanding GLOF risks, and the framework can be transferred to other areas.
Nilo Lima-Quispe, Denis Ruelland, Antoine Rabatel, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, and Thomas Condom
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 655–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-655-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-655-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimated the water balance of Lake Titicaca using an integrated modeling framework that considers natural hydrological processes and net irrigation consumption. The proposed approach was implemented at a daily scale for a period of 35 years. This framework is able to simulate lake water levels with good accuracy over a wide range of hydroclimatic conditions. The findings demonstrate that a simple representation of hydrological processes is suitable for use in poorly gauged regions.
Adam P. Kozioł, Adam Kiczko, Marcin Krukowski, Elżbieta Kubrak, Janusz Kubrak, Grzegorz Majewski, and Andrzej Brandyk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 535–545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-535-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-535-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Floodplain trees play a crucial role in increasing flow resistance. Their impact extends beyond floodplains to affect the main channel. The experiments reveal the influence of floodplain trees on the discharge capacity of channels with varying roughness. We determine resistance coefficients for different roughness levels of the main channel bottom. The research contributes to a deeper understanding of open-channel flow dynamics and has practical implications for river engineering.
Alejandro Jiménez-Bonilla, Lucía Martegani, Miguel Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Fernando Gázquez, Manuel Díaz-Azpíroz, Sergio Martos, Klaus Reicherter, and Inmaculada Expósito
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5311–5329, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5311-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5311-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted an interdisciplinary study of the Fuente de Piedra playa lake's evolution in southern Spain. We made water balances for the Fuente de Piedra playa lake's lifespan. Our results indicate that the Fuente de Piedra playa lake's level moved and tilted south-west, which was caused by active faults.
Khosro Morovati, Keer Zhang, Lidi Shi, Yadu Pokhrel, Maozhou Wu, Paradis Someth, Sarann Ly, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5133–5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines large daily river flow fluctuations in the dammed Mekong River, developing integrated 3D hydrodynamic and response time models alongside a hydrological model with an embedded reservoir module. This approach allows estimation of travel times between hydrological stations and contributions of subbasins and upstream regions. Findings show a power correlation between upstream discharge and travel time, and significant fluctuations occurred even before dam construction.
Claudia Voigt, Fernando Gázquez, Lucía Martegani, Ana Isabel Sánchez Villanueva, Antonio Medina, Rosario Jiménez-Espinosa, Juan Jiménez-Millán, and Miguel Rodríguez-Rodríguez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-290, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-290, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This research explores the use of a new isotope tracer, 17O-excess, to better understand how hydrological processes drive large seasonal water level changes in small lakes in semiarid regions. The study shows that triple oxygen isotopes offer a more detailed understanding of these changes compared to traditional methods. These findings are valuable for reconstructing past climates and predicting how climate change, influenced by human activity, will affect small lakes in these dry areas.
Márk Somogyvári, Dieter Scherer, Frederik Bart, Ute Fehrenbach, Akpona Okujeni, and Tobias Krueger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4331–4348, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the drivers behind the changes in lake levels, creating a series of models from least to most complex. In this study, we have shown that the decreasing levels of Groß Glienicker Lake in Germany are not simply the result of changes in climate but are affected by other processes. In our example, reduced inflow from a growing forest, regionally sinking groundwater levels and the modifications in the local rainwater infrastructure together resulted in an increasing lake level loss.
Farhad Bahmanpouri, Tommaso Lazzarin, Silvia Barbetta, Tommaso Moramarco, and Daniele P. Viero
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3717–3737, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3717-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The entropy model is a reliable tool to estimate flood discharge in rivers using observed level and surface velocity. Often, level and velocity sensors are placed on bridges, which may disturb the flow. Using accurate numerical models, we explored the entropy model reliability nearby a multi-arch bridge. We found that it is better to place sensors and to estimate the discharge upstream of bridges; downstream, the entropy model needs the river-wide distribution of surface velocity as input data.
Johannes Feldbauer, Jorrit P. Mesman, Tobias K. Andersen, and Robert Ladwig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2447, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Models help to understand natural systems and are used to predict changes based on scenarios e.g. climate change. To simulate water temperature and deduce impact on water quality in lakes, 1D hydrodynamic models are often used. There are several such models which differ in their assumptions and mathematical process description. This study examines the performance of four such models on a global dataset of 73 lakes and relates the performance to the models structure and the lake characteristics.
Annie L. Putman, Patrick C. Longley, Morgan C. McDonnell, James Reddy, Michelle Katoski, Olivia L. Miller, and J. Renée Brooks
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2895–2918, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accuracy of streamflow estimates where water management and use are prevalent, such as the western US, reflect hydrologic modeling decisions. To evaluate process inclusion decisions, we equipped a hydrologic model with tracers and compared estimates to observations. The tracer-equipped model performed well, and differences between the model and observations suggest that the inclusion of water from irrigation may improve model performance in this region.
Andras Janos Szeitz and Sean K. Carey
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1741, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stream temperature sensitivity in northern regions responds to many of the same environmental controls as in temperate regions, but the presence of annually frozen ground (permafrost) influences catchment hydrology and stream temperature regimes. Permafrost can have positive and negative influences on thermal regimes. The net effect of northern environmental change on stream temperature is complex and uncertain, but permafrost will likely play a role through its control on cold region hydrology.
Jorrit P. Mesman, Inmaculada C. Jiménez-Navarro, Ana I. Ayala, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Dennis Trolle, and Don C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1791–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Spring events in lakes are key processes for ecosystem functioning. We used a coupled catchment–lake model to investigate future changes in the timing of spring discharge, ice-off, spring phytoplankton peak, and onset of stratification in a mesotrophic lake. We found a clear trend towards earlier occurrence under climate warming but also that relative shifts in the timing occurred, such as onset of stratification advancing more slowly than the other events.
Fernando Aristizabal, Taher Chegini, Gregory Petrochenkov, Fernando Salas, and Jasmeet Judge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1287–1315, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1287-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods are significant natural disasters that affect people and property. This study uses a simplified terrain index and the latest lidar-derived digital elevation maps (DEMs) to investigate flood inundation extent quality. We examined inundation quality influenced by different spatial resolutions and other variables. Results showed that lidar DEMs enhance inundation quality, but their resolution is less impactful in our context. Further studies on reservoirs and urban flooding are recommended.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Donghui Xu, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3911–3934, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3911-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the flood risks concurrently induced by river flooding and coastal storm surge along the coast of the contiguous United States using statistical and numerical models. We reveal a few hotspots of such risks, the critical spatial variabilities within a river basin and over the whole US coast, and the uncertainties of the risk assessment. We highlight the importance of weighing different risk measures to avoid underestimating or exaggerating the compound flood impacts.
Erin Towler, Sydney S. Foks, Aubrey L. Dugger, Jesse E. Dickinson, Hedeff I. Essaid, David Gochis, Roland J. Viger, and Yongxin Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1809–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrologic models developed to assess water availability need to be systematically evaluated. This study evaluates the long-term performance of two high-resolution hydrologic models that simulate streamflow across the contiguous United States. Both models show similar performance overall and regionally, with better performance in minimally disturbed basins than in those impacted by human activity. At about 80 % of the sites, both models outperform the seasonal climatological benchmark.
François Clayer, Leah Jackson-Blake, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Muhammed Shikhani, Andrew French, Tadhg Moore, James Sample, Magnus Norling, Maria-Dolores Frias, Sixto Herrera, Elvira de Eyto, Eleanor Jennings, Karsten Rinke, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1361–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the predictive skill of forecasting tools over the next season for water discharge and lake temperature. Tools were forced with seasonal weather predictions; however, most of the prediction skill originates from legacy effects and not from seasonal weather predictions. Yet, when skills from seasonal weather predictions are present, additional skill comes from interaction effects. Skilful lake seasonal predictions require better weather predictions and realistic antecedent conditions.
Olivia Desgué-Itier, Laura Melo Vieira Soares, Orlane Anneville, Damien Bouffard, Vincent Chanudet, Pierre Alain Danis, Isabelle Domaizon, Jean Guillard, Théo Mazure, Najwa Sharaf, Frédéric Soulignac, Viet Tran-Khac, Brigitte Vinçon-Leite, and Jean-Philippe Jenny
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 837–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-837-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The long-term effects of climate change will include an increase in lake surface and deep water temperatures. Incorporating up to 6 decades of limnological monitoring into an improved 1D lake model approach allows us to predict the thermal regime and oxygen solubility in four peri-alpine lakes over the period 1850–2100. Our modeling approach includes a revised selection of forcing variables and provides a way to investigate the impacts of climate variations on lakes for centennial timescales.
Enrico Bonanno, Günter Blöschl, and Julian Klaus
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6003–6028, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6003-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6003-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is an unclear understanding of which processes regulate the transport of water, solutes, and pollutants in streams. This is crucial since these processes control water quality in river networks. Compared to other approaches, we obtained clearer insights into the processes controlling solute transport in the investigated reach. This work highlights the risks of using uncertain results for interpreting the processes controlling water movement in streams.
Jingshui Huang, Dietrich Borchardt, and Michael Rode
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5817–5833, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5817-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5817-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we set up a water quality model using a 5-year paired high-frequency water quality dataset from a large agricultural stream. The simulations were compared with the 15 min interval measurements and showed very good fits. Based on these, we quantified the N uptake pathway rates and efficiencies at daily, seasonal, and yearly scales. This study offers an overarching understanding of N processing in large agricultural streams across different temporal scales.
Timothy J. Maguire, Craig A. Stow, and Casey M. Godwin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1993–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Water within large water bodies is constantly moving. Consequently, water movement masks causal relationships that exist between rivers and lakes. Incorporating water movement into models of nutrient concentration allows us to predict concentrations at unobserved locations and at observed locations on days not sampled. Our modeling approach does this while accommodating nutrient concentration data from multiple sources and provides a way to experimentally define the impact of rivers on lakes.
Adrien Michel, Bettina Schaefli, Nander Wever, Harry Zekollari, Michael Lehning, and Hendrik Huwald
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1063–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents an extensive study of climate change impacts on river temperature in Switzerland. Results show that, even for low-emission scenarios, water temperature increase will lead to adverse effects for both ecosystems and socio-economic sectors throughout the 21st century. For high-emission scenarios, the effect will worsen. This study also shows that water seasonal warming will be different between the Alpine regions and the lowlands. Finally, efficiency of models is assessed.
Md Feroz Islam, Paul P. Schot, Stefan C. Dekker, Jasper Griffioen, and Hans Middelkoop
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 903–921, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-903-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-903-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The potential of sedimentation in the lowest parts of polders (beels) through controlled flooding with dike breach (tidal river management – TRM) to counterbalance relative sea level rise (RSLR) in 234 beels of SW Bangladesh is determined in this study, using 2D models and multiple regression. Lower beels located closer to the sea have the highest potential. Operating TRM only during the monsoon season is sufficient to raise the land surface of most beels by more than 3 times the yearly RSLR.
Sam Anderson and Valentina Radić
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 795–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop and interpret a spatiotemporal deep learning model for regional streamflow prediction at more than 200 stream gauge stations in western Canada. We find the novel modelling style to work very well for daily streamflow prediction. Importantly, we interpret model learning to show that it has learned to focus on physically interpretable and physically relevant information, which is a highly desirable quality of machine-learning-based hydrological models.
Danlu Guo, Camille Minaudo, Anna Lintern, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Shuci Liu, Kefeng Zhang, and Clément Duvert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of baseflow contribution on concentration–flow (C–Q) relationships across the Australian continent. We developed a novel Bayesian hierarchical model for six water quality variables across 157 catchments that span five climate zones. For sediments and nutrients, the C–Q slope is generally steeper for catchments with a higher median and a greater variability of baseflow contribution, highlighting the key role of variable flow pathways in particulate and solute export.
Liguang Jiang, Silja Westphal Christensen, and Peter Bauer-Gottwein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6359–6379, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6359-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6359-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
River roughness and geometry are essential to hydraulic river models. However, measurements of these quantities are not available in most rivers globally. Nevertheless, simultaneous calibration of channel geometric parameters and roughness is difficult as they compensate for each other. This study introduces an alternative approach of parameterization and calibration that reduces parameter correlations by combining cross-section geometry and roughness into a conveyance parameter.
Masoud Zaerpour, Shadi Hatami, Javad Sadri, and Ali Nazemi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5193–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5193-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5193-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow regimes are changing globally particularly in cold regions. We develop a novel algorithm for detecting shifting streamflow regimes using changes in first and second moments of ensemble streamflow features. This algorithm is generic and can be used globally. To showcase its application, we assess alterations in Canadian natural streams from 1966 to 2010 to provide the first temporally consistent, pan-Canadian assessment of change in natural streamflow regimes, coast to coast to coast.
Samuel J. Sutanto and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3991–4023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the differences within streamflow droughts derived using different identification approaches, namely the variable threshold, fixed threshold, and the Standardized Streamflow Index, including an analysis of both historical drought and implications for forecasting. Our results clearly show that streamflow droughts derived from different approaches deviate from each other in terms of drought occurrence, timing, duration, and deficit volume.
Janie Masse-Dufresne, Florent Barbecot, Paul Baudron, and John Gibson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3731–3757, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A volume-dependent transient isotopic mass balance model was developed for an artificial lake in Canada, in a context where direct measurements of surface water fluxes are difficult. It revealed that floodwater inputs affected the dynamics of the lake in spring but also significantly influenced the long-term water balance due to temporary subsurface storage of floodwater. Such models are paramount for understanding the vulnerability of lakes to changes in groundwater quantity and quality.
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3577–3594, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses changes in magnitude, frequency, and seasonality of moderate low and high flows for 93 catchments in Switzerland. In lower-lying catchments (below 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will decrease (increase). In Alpine catchments (above 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will increase (decrease). Moderate high flows tend to occur more frequent, and their magnitude increases in most catchments except some Alpine catchments.
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3071–3086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff regimes in Switzerland will change significantly under climate change. Projected changes are strongly elevation dependent with earlier time of emergence and stronger changes in high-elevation catchments where snowmelt and glacier melt play an important role. The magnitude of change and the climate model agreement on the sign increase with increasing global mean temperatures and stronger emission scenarios. This amplification highlights the importance of climate change mitigation.
Moritz Feigl, Katharina Lebiedzinski, Mathew Herrnegger, and Karsten Schulz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2951–2977, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2951-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we developed machine learning approaches for daily river water temperature prediction, using different data preprocessing methods, six model types, a range of different data inputs and 10 study catchments. By comparing to current state-of-the-art models, we could show a significant improvement of prediction performance of the tested approaches. Furthermore, we could gain insight into the relationships between model types, input data and predicted stream water temperature.
Cintia L. Ramón, Hugo N. Ulloa, Tomy Doda, Kraig B. Winters, and Damien Bouffard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1813–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1813-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1813-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
When solar radiation penetrates the frozen surface of lakes, shallower zones underneath warm faster than deep interior waters. This numerical study shows that the transport of excess heat to the lake interior depends on the lake circulation, affected by Earth's rotation, and controls the lake warming rates and the spatial distribution of the heat flux across the ice–water interface. This work contributes to the understanding of the circulation and thermal structure patterns of ice-covered lakes.
Robert Ladwig, Paul C. Hanson, Hilary A. Dugan, Cayelan C. Carey, Yu Zhang, Lele Shu, Christopher J. Duffy, and Kelly M. Cobourn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1009–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1009-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1009-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using a modeling framework applied to 37 years of dissolved oxygen time series data from Lake Mendota, we identified the timing and intensity of thermal energy stored in the lake water column, the lake's resilience to mixing, and surface primary production as the most important drivers of interannual dynamics of low oxygen concentrations at the lake bottom. Due to climate change, we expect an increase in the spatial and temporal extent of low oxygen concentrations in Lake Mendota.
Carlos Miranda Rodrigues, Madalena Moreira, Rita Cabral Guimarães, and Miguel Potes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5973–5984, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5973-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5973-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In Mediterranean environments, evaporation is a key component of reservoir water budgets. Prediction of surface evaporation becomes crucial for adequate reservoir water management. This study provides an applicable method for calculating evaporation based on pan measurements applied at Alqueva Reservoir (southern Portugal), one of the largest artificial lakes in Europe. Moreover, the methodology presented here could be applied to other Mediterranean reservoirs.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Gustavo Naumann, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Bernard Bisselink, Emiliano Gelati, Ad De Roo, and Luc Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5919–5935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5919-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5919-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is anticipated to alter the demand and supply of water at the earth's surface. This study shows how hydrological droughts will change across Europe with increasing global warming levels, showing that at 3 K global warming an additional 11 million people and 4.5 ×106 ha of agricultural land will be exposed to droughts every year, on average. These effects are mostly located in the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions of Europe.
Alex Zavarsky and Lars Duester
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5027–5041, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5027-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5027-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
River water temperature is an important parameter for water quality and an important variable for physical, chemical and biological processes. River water is also used as a cooling agent by power plants and production facilities. We study long-term trends in river water temperature and correlate them to meteorological influences and power production or economic indices.
Cheng-Wei Yu, Ben R. Hodges, and Frank Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4001–4024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4001-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4001-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the effects of bottom slope discontinuity on the stability of numerical solutions for the Saint-Venant equations. A new reference slope concept is proposed to ensure smooth source terms and eliminate potential numerical oscillations. It is shown that a simple algebraic transformation of channel geometry provides a smooth reference slope while preserving the correct cross-sectional flow area and the piezometric pressure gradient that drives the flow.
Ana I. Ayala, Simone Moras, and Donald C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of different levels of global warming on the thermal structure of Lake Erken are assessed. We used the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) to simulate water temperature driven by meteorological scenarios supplied by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) and tested its ability at different frequencies. Then, daily ISIMIP meteorological scenarios were disaggregated and assessed for the effects of climate change on lake thermal structure.
Luca Ziliani, Nicola Surian, Gianluca Botter, and Luca Mao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3229–3250, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3229-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3229-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Although geomorphic recovery is a key issue in many rivers worldwide, controlled floods have been rarely designed using geomorphological criteria. An integrated approach is used to assess the effects of different controlled-flood scenarios in a strongly regulated river. None of the controlled-flood strategies provide significant morphological benefits. Nevertheless, this study represents a significant contribution for the management and restoration of highly disturbed rivers.
Benjamin M. Kraemer, Anton Seimon, Rita Adrian, and Peter B. McIntyre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2593–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2593-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2593-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Lake levels go up and down due to natural variability in the climate. But the effects of natural variability on lake levels can sometimes be confused for the influence of humans. Here we used long-term data from 200 globally distributed lakes and an advanced statistical approach to show that the effects of natural variability on lake levels can be disentangled from other effects leading to better estimates of long-term changes that may be partially caused by humans.
Audrey Marescaux, Vincent Thieu, Nathalie Gypens, Marie Silvestre, and Josette Garnier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2379–2398, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2379-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Rivers have been recognized as an active part of the carbon cycle where transformations are associated with CO2 outgassing. To understand it, we propose a modeling approach with the biogeochemical model, pyNuts-Riverstrahler. We implemented it on the human-impacted Seine River. Sources of carbon to the river were characterized by field measurements in groundwater and in wastewater. Outgassing was the most important in streams, and peaks were simulated downstream of wastewater treatment effluent.
Danlu Guo, Anna Lintern, J. Angus Webb, Dongryeol Ryu, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Shuci Liu, and Andrew William Western
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 827–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-827-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-827-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed predictive models to represent the spatial and temporal variation of stream water quality across Victoria, Australia. The model structures were informed by a data-driven approach, which identified the key controls of water quality variations from long-term records. These models are helpful to identify likely future changes in water quality and, in turn, provide critical information for developing management strategies to improve stream water quality.
Vo Quoc Thanh, Dano Roelvink, Mick van der Wegen, Johan Reyns, Herman Kernkamp, Giap Van Vinh, and Vo Thi Phuong Linh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 189–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-189-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-189-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is a rice bowl of not only Vietnam, but also the world; agriculture is the main source of livelihood in the delta. The VMD is facing threats related to water management and hydraulic structures. Dykes are built to protect agricultural crops in the floodplains and may influence water regimes downstream in the VMD. If the VMD floodplains are completely protected by dykes, yearly mean water levels could increase by 3 cm (at Can Tho) and 1.5 cm (at My Thuan).
Martin Mergili, Shiva P. Pudasaini, Adam Emmer, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Alejo Cochachin, and Holger Frey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In 1941, the glacial lagoon Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) drained suddenly. The resulting outburst flood/debris flow consumed another lake and had a disastrous impact on the town of Huaraz 23 km downstream. We reconstuct this event through a numerical model to learn about the possibility of prediction of similar processes in the future. Remaining challenges consist of the complex process interactions and the lack of experience due to the rare occurrence of such process chains.
Simone Moras, Ana I. Ayala, and Don C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5001–5016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5001-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5001-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We used a hydrodynamic model to reconstruct daily historical water temperature of Lake Erken (Sweden) between 1961 and 2017 to demonstrate the ongoing effect of climate change on lake thermal conditions. The results show that the lake has warmed most rapidly in the last 30 years and that it is now subject to a longer and more stable stratification. The methods used here to reconstruct historical water temperature records can be easily extended to other lakes.
Qunhui Zhang, Jiming Jin, Xiaochun Wang, Phaedra Budy, Nick Barrett, and Sarah E. Null
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4969–4982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4969-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4969-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We improved lake mixing process simulations by applying a vertical mixing scheme, K profile parameterization (KPP), in the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5, developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The current vertical mixing scheme in CLM requires an arbitrarily enlarged eddy diffusivity to enhance water mixing. The coupled CLM-KPP considers a boundary layer for eddy development. The improved lake model provides an important tool for lake hydrology and ecosystem studies.
Margarita Choulga, Ekaterina Kourzeneva, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, and Nils Wedi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4051–4076, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4051-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4051-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes influence weather and climate of regions, especially if several of them are located close by. Just by using upgraded lake depths, based on new or more recent measurements and geological methods of depth estimation, errors of lake surface water forecasts produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts became 12–20 % lower compared with observations for 27 lakes collected by the Finnish Environment Institute. For ice-off date forecasts errors changed insignificantly.
Jérémy Lepesqueur, Renaud Hostache, Núria Martínez-Carreras, Emmanuelle Montargès-Pelletier, and Christophe Hissler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3901–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3901-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3901-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This article evaluates the influence of sediment representation in a sediment transport model. A short-term simulation is used to assess how far changing the sediment characteristics in the modelling experiment changes riverbed evolution and sediment redistribution during a small flood event. The study shows in particular that representing sediment with extended grain-size and grain-density distributions allows for improving model accuracy and performances.
Annie Visser-Quinn, Lindsay Beevers, and Sandhya Patidar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3279–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3279-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3279-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The ecological impact of changes in river flow may be explored through the simulation of ecologically relevant flow indicators. Traditional approaches to model parameterization are not well-suited for this. To this end, this paper considers the ability of a
modified covariance approach, applied to five hydrologically diverse catchments. An overall improvement in consistency is observed, whilst timing and rate of change represent the best and worst replicated indicators respectively.
Jeffrey J. Richardson, Christian E. Torgersen, and L. Monika Moskal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2813–2822, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2813-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2813-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
High stream temperatures can be detrimental to the survival of aquatic species such as endangered salmon. Stream temperatures can be reduced by shade provided by trees in riparian areas. Two lidar-based methods were effective at assessing stream shading. These methods can be used in place of expensive field measurements.
Cited articles
Aguilera, P. A., Fernández, A., Fernández, R., Rumí, R., and
Salmerón, A.: Bayesian networks in environmental modelling, Environ. Model. Softw., 26, 1376–1388, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.06.004, 2011.
Barton, D. N., Saloranta, T., Moe, S. J., Eggestad, H. O., and Kuikka, S.:
Bayesian belief networks as a meta-modelling tool in integrated river basin
management – Pros and cons in evaluating nutrient abatement decisions
under uncertainty in a Norwegian river basin, Ecol. Econ., 66, 91–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.02.012, 2008.
Bergström, A.-K. and Karlsson, J.: Light and nutrient control phytoplankton biomass responses to global change in northern lakes, Global
Change Biol., 25, 2021–2029, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14623, 2019.
Bertani, I., Steger, C. E., Obenour, D. R., Fahnenstiel, G. L., Bridgeman, T. B., Johengen, T. H., Sayers, M. J., Shuchman, R. A., and Scavia, D.: Tracking cyanobacteria blooms: Do different monitoring approaches tell the same story?, Sci. Total Environ., 575, 294–308, 2017.
Boukabour, S. and Masmoudi, A.: Semiparametric Bayesian networks for continuous data, in: Communications in Statistics – Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.1080/03610926.2020.1738486, 2020.
Bruno Soares, M. and Dessai, S.: Barriers and enablers to the use of seasonal climate forecasts amongst organisations in Europe, Climatic Change, 137, 89–103, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1671-8, 2016.
Carpenter, S. R., Cole, J. J., Kitchell, J. F., and Pace, M. L.: Impact of
dissolved organic carbon, phosphorus, and grazing on phytoplankton biomass and production in experimental lakes, Limnol. Oceanogr., 43, 73-80,
https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1998.43.1.0073, 1998.
Chicco, D. and Jurman, G.: The advantages of the Matthews correlation
coefficient (MCC) over F1 score and accuracy in binary classification
evaluation, BMC Genom., 21, 1–13, 2020.
Couture, R.-M., Tominaga, K., Starrfelt, J., Moe, S. J., Kaste, Ø., and
Wright, R. F.: Modelling phosphorus loading and algal blooms in a Nordic
agricultural catchment-lake system under changing land-use and climate,
Environ. Sci.: Proc. Imp., 16, 1588–1599, 2014.
Couture, R.-M., Moe, S. J., Lin, Y., Kaste, Ø., Haande, S., and Solheim,
A. L.: Simulating water quality and ecological status of Lake Vansjø,
Norway, under land-use and climate change by linking process-oriented models
with a Bayesian network, Sci. Total Environ., 621, 713–724, 2018.
D'Agostino, R. and Pearson, E. S.: Tests for departure from normality. Empirical results for the distributions of b2 and
de Wit, H. A., Valinia, S., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Futter, M. N., Kortelainen,
P., Austnes, K., Hessen, D. O., Räike, A., Laudon, H., and Vuorenmaa, J.: Current browning of surface waters will be further promoted by wetter climate, Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett., 3, 430–435, 2016.
Direktoratsgruppen Vanndirektivet: Klassifisering av miljøtilstand i
vann, 222, https://www.vannportalen.no/veiledere/klassifiseringsveileder/ (last access: 10 May 2022), 2018.
Dudgeon, D., Arthington, A. H., Gessner, M. O., Kawabata, Z.-I., Knowler, D.
J., Lévêque, C., Naiman, R. J., Prieur-Richard, A.-H., Soto, D., and
Stiassny, M. L.: Freshwater biodiversity: importance, threats, status and
conservation challenges, Biol. Rev., 81, 163–182, 2006.
ECOSTAT: Common implementation strategy for the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC), Guidance document no. 13: Overall approach to the
classification of ecological status and ecological potential, Office for
Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg, 53 pp.,
https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/06480e87-27a6-41e6-b165-0581c2b046ad/Guidance No 13 - Classification of Ecological Status (WGA).pdf (last access: 9 June 2022), 2005.
Geiger, D. and Heckerman, D.: Learning Gaussian Networks, in: Uncertainty
Proceedings 1994, Elsevier, 235–243, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-1-55860-332-5.50035-3, 1994.
Gozlan, R., Karimov, B., Zadereev, E., Kuznetsova, D., and Brucet, S.: Status, trends, and future dynamics of freshwater ecosystems in Europe and
Central Asia, Inland Waters, 9, 78–94, 2019.
Gudimov, A., O'Connor, E., Dittrich, M., Jarjanazi, H., Palmer, M. E.,
Stainsby, E., Winter, J. G., Young, J. D., and Arhonditsis, G. B.: Continuous Bayesian Network for Studying the Causal Links between Phosphorus Loading and Plankton Patterns in Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada, Environ. Sci. Technol., 46, 7283–7292, https://doi.org/10.1021/es300983r, 2012.
Haande, S., Solheim, A., Moe, J., and Brænden, R.: Klassifisering av
økologisk tilstand i elver og innsjøer i Vannområde Morsa iht,
Vanndirektivet, ISBN 978-82-577-5901-8, https://niva.brage.unit.no/niva-xmlui/handle/11250/215455 (last access: 10 May 2022), 2011.
Hanea, A., Morales Napoles, O., and Ababei, D.: Non-parametric Bayesian
networks: Improving theory and reviewing applications, Reliabil. Eng. Syst. Safe., 144, 265–284, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2015.07.027, 2015.
Hanlon, C. G.: Relationships Between Total Phosphorus Concentrations, Sampling Frequency, and Wind Velocity in a Shallow, Polymictic Lake, Lake
Reserv. Manage., 15, 39–46, https://doi.org/10.1080/07438149909353950, 1999.
Heisler, J., Glibert, P. M., Burkholder, J. M., Anderson, D. M., Cochlan, W., Dennison, W. C., Dortch, Q., Gobler, C. J., Heil, C. A., Humphries, E., Lewitus, A., Magnien, R., Marshall, H. G., Sellner, K., Stockwell, D. A.,
Stoecker, D. K., and Suddleson, M.: Eutrophication and harmful algal blooms:
A scientific consensus, Harmful Algae, 8, 3–13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hal.2008.08.006, 2008.
Ho, J. C. and Michalak, A. M.: Phytoplankton blooms in Lake Erie impacted by
both long-term and springtime phosphorus loading, J. Great Lakes Res., 43, 221–228, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2017.04.001, 2017.
Huber, V., Wagner, C., Gerten, D., and Adrian, R.: To bloom or not to bloom:
contrasting responses of cyanobacteria to recent heat waves explained by
critical thresholds of abiotic drivers, Oecologia, 169, 245–256, 2012.
Huisman, J., Codd, G. A., Paerl, H. W., Ibelings, B. W., Verspagen, J. M.,
and Visser, P. M.: Cyanobacterial blooms, Nat. Rev. Microbiol., 16, 471–483, 2018.
Hyndman, R. J. and Athanasopoulos, G.: Forecasting: principles and practice,
3rd Edn., OTexts, Melbourne, Australia, https://otexts.com/fpp3/ (last access: 10 May 2022), 2021.
Ibelings, B. W., Fastner, J., Bormans, M., and Visser, P. M.: Cyanobacterial
blooms. Ecology, prevention, mitigation and control: Editorial to a CYANOCOST Special Issue, Aquat. Ecol., 50, 327–331, 2016.
Jackson-Blake, L.: LeahJB/gbn-vansjo, GitHub [code],
https://github.com/LeahJB/gbn-vansjo, 2022a.
Jackson-Blake, L.: LeahJB/gbn-vansjo: First release of gbn-vansjo (v0.1), Zenodo [data set and code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6535592, 2022b.
Jackson-Blake, L. A., Clayer, F., de Eyto, E., French, A. S., Frías, M.
D., Mercado-Bettín, D., Moore, T., Puértolas, L., Poole, R., Rinke,
K., Shikhani, M., van der Linden, L., and Marcé, R.: Opportunities for
seasonal forecasting to support water management outside the tropics, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1389–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, 2022.
Kaikkonen, L., Parviainen, T., Rahikainen, M., Uusitalo, L., and Lehikoinen,
A.: Bayesian Networks in Environmental Risk Assessment: A Review, Integrat.
Environ. Assess. Manage., 17, 62–78, https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.4332, 2021.
Kosten, S., Huszar, V. L. M., Bécares, E., Costa, L. S., van Donk, E.,
Hansson, L.-A., Jeppesen, E., Kruk, C., Lacerot, G., Mazzeo, N., De Meester,
L., Moss, B., Lürling, M., Nõges, T., Romo, S., and Scheffer, M.:
Warmer climates boost cyanobacterial dominance in shallow lakes, Global
Change Biol., 18, 118–126, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02488.x, 2012.
Kristensen, P., Whalley, C., Zal, F. N. N., and Christiansen, T.: European
waters assessment of status and pressures 2018, EEA Report No. 7/2018, EEA,
https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/state-of-water (last access:
10 May 2022), 2018.
Lürling, M., Mello, M. M. E., van Oosterhout, F., de Senerpont Domis, L., and Marinho, M. M.: Response of Natural Cyanobacteria and Algae Assemblages to a Nutrient Pulse and Elevated Temperature, Front. Microbiol., 9, 1851, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2018.01851, 2018.
Lussana, C., Tveito, O. E., Dobler, A., and Tunheim, K.: seNorge_2018, daily precipitation, and temperature datasets over Norway, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1531–1551, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1531-2019, 2019.
Marcot, B. G. and Penman, T. D.: Advances in Bayesian network modelling:
Integration of modelling technologies, Environ. Model. Softw., 111, 386–393, 2019.
Masmoudi, K. and Masmoudi, A.: A new class of continuous Bayesian networks,
Int. J. Approx. Reason., 109, 125–138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijar.2019.03.010, 2019.
Matilainen, A., Vepsäläinen, M., and Sillanpää, M.: Natural
organic matter removal by coagulation during drinking water treatment: A
review, Adv. Colloid Interf. Sci., 159, 189–197, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cis.2010.06.007, 2010.
Mercado-Bettín, D., Clayer, F., Shikhani, M., Moore, T. N., Frías,
M. D., Jackson-Blake, L., Sample, J., Iturbide, M., Herrera, S., and French,
A. S.: Forecasting water temperature in lakes and reservoirs using seasonal
climate prediction, Water Res., 201, 117286, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2021.117286, 2021.
Merel, S., Walker, D., Chicana, R., Snyder, S., Baurès, E., and Thomas,
O.: State of knowledge and concerns on cyanobacterial blooms and cyanotoxins, Environ. Int., 59, 303–327, 2013.
Moe, S. J., Haande, S., and Couture, R.-M.: Climate change, cyanobacteria
blooms and ecological status of lakes: A Bayesian network approach, Ecol. Model., 337, 330–347, 2016.
Moe, S. J., Couture, R.-M., Haande, S., Lyche Solheim, A., and Jackson-Blake, L.: Predicting Lake Quality for the Next Generation: Impacts of Catchment Management and Climatic Factors in a Probabilistic Model Framework, Water, 11, 1767, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091767, 2019.
Nagai, T., Imai, A., Matsushige, K., and Fukushima, T.: Effect of iron
complexation with dissolved organic matter on the growth of cyanobacteria in
a eutrophic lake, Aquat. Microb. Ecol., 44, 231–239, 2006.
Nojavan, F. A., Qian, S. S., and Stow, C. A.: Comparative analysis of
discretization methods in Bayesian networks, Environ. Model. Softw., 87, 64–71, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.10.007, 2017.
Paerl, H. W. and Huisman, J.: Climate change: a catalyst for global
expansion of harmful cyanobacterial blooms, Environ. Microbiol. Rep., 1, 27–37, 2009.
Pearl, J.: Fusion, propagation, and structuring in belief networks, Artific. Intell., 29, 241–288, 1986.
Pedregosa, F., Varoquaux, G., Gramfort, A., Michel, V., Thirion, B., Grisel,
O., Blondel, M., Prettenhofer, P., Weiss, R., and Dubourg, V.: Scikit-learn:
Machine learning in Python, J. Mach. Learn. Res., 12, 2825–2830, 2011.
Qian, S. S. and Miltner, R. J.: A continuous variable Bayesian networks model for water quality modeling: A case study of setting nitrogen criterion for small rivers and streams in Ohio, USA, Environ. Model. Softw., 69, 14–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.03.001, 2015.
Reid, A. J., Carlson, A. K., Creed, I. F., Eliason, E. J., Gell, P. A., Johnson, P. T. J., Kidd, K. A., MacCormack, T. J., Olden, J. D., Ormerod, S.
J., Smol, J. P., Taylor, W. W., Tockner, K., Vermaire, J. C., Dudgeon, D.,
and Cooke, S. J.: Emerging threats and persistent conservation challenges
for freshwater biodiversity, Biol. Rev., 94, 849–873, https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12480, 2019.
Rigosi, A., Hanson, P., Hamilton, D. P., Hipsey, M., Rusak, J. A., Bois, J.,
Sparber, K., Chorus, I., Watkinson, A. J., and Qin, B.: Determining the
probability of cyanobacterial blooms: the application of Bayesian networks in multiple lake systems, Ecol. Appl., 25, 186–199, 2015.
Robarts, R. D. and Zohary, T.: Temperature effects on photosynthetic capacity, respiration, and growth rates of bloom-forming cyanobacteria, N. Z. J. Mar. Freshw. Res., 21, 391–399, 1987.
Rousso, B. Z., Bertone, E., Stewart, R., and Hamilton, D. P.: A systematic
literature review of forecasting and predictive models for cyanobacteria blooms in freshwater lakes, Water Res., 182, 115959, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2020.115959, 2020.
Scutari, M.: Learning Bayesian networks with the bnlearn R package, J. Stat. Softw., 35, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v035.i03, 2010.
Senar, O. E., Creed, I. F., and Trick, C. G.: Lake browning may fuel
phytoplankton biomass and trigger shifts in phytoplankton communities in
temperate lakes, Aquat. Sci., 83, 21, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00027-021-00780-0, 2021.
Shachter, R. D. and Kenley, C. R.: Gaussian influence diagrams, Manage. Sci.,
35, 527–550, 1989.
Shan, K., Shang, M., Zhou, B., Li, L., Wang, X., Yang, H., and Song, L.:
Application of Bayesian network including Microcystis morphospecies for
microcystin risk assessment in three cyanobacterial bloom-plagued lakes, China, Harmful Algae, 83, 14–24, 2019.
Skarbøvik, E., Haande, S., Bechmann, M., and Skjelbred, B.:
Vannovervåking i Morsa 2020, Innsjøer, elver og bekker, november 2019–oktober 2020, NIBIO Rapport 7(57),
https://nibio.brage.unit.no/nibio-xmlui/handle/11250/2758688 (last access: 10 May 2022), 2021.
Solheim, A. L., Rekolainen, S., Moe, S. J., Carvalho, L., Phillips, G.,
Ptacnik, R., Penning, W. E., Toth, L. G., O'Toole, C., Schartau, A.-K. L.,
and Hesthagen, T.: Ecological threshold responses in European lakes and their applicability for the Water Framework Directive (WFD) implementation: synthesis of lakes results from the REBECCA project, Aquat. Ecol., 42, 317–334, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10452-008-9188-5, 2008.
Solheim, A. L., Phillips, G., Drakare, S., Free, G., Järvinen, M.,
Skjelbred, B., Tierney, D., and Trodd, W.: Northern lake phytoplankton
ecological assessment methods, Luxemburg, Publication Office of the European Union, EUR 26503 EN, 259, https://doi.org/10.2788/70684, 2014.
Søndergaard, M., Bjerring, R., and Jeppesen, E.: Persistent internal
phosphorus loading during summer in shallow eutrophic lakes, Hydrobiologia,
710, 95–107, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-012-1091-3, 2013.
Stumpf, R. P., Wynne, T. T., Baker, D. B., and Fahnenstiel, G. L.: Interannual variability of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Erie, PLoS ONE, 7, e42444, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0042444, 2012.
Taranu, Z. E., Zurawell, R. W., Pick, F., and Gregory-Eaves, I.: Predicting
cyanobacterial dynamics in the face of global change: the importance of scale and environmental context, Global Change Biol., 18, 3477–3490, 2012.
Taranu, Z. E., Gregory-Eaves, I., Leavitt, P. R., Bunting, L., Buchaca, T.,
Catalan, J., Domaizon, I., Guilizzoni, P., Lami, A., and McGowan, S.: Acceleration of cyanobacterial dominance in north temperate-subarctic lakes
during the Anthropocene, Ecol. Lett., 18, 375–384, 2015.
Uusitalo, L.: Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modelling, Ecol. Model., 203, 312–318, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.11.033, 2007.
Vanndirektivet, D.: Klassifisering av miljøtilstand i vann. Veileder 02:2018, Direktoratsgruppen for gjennomføringen av vannforskriften, 222, https://www.vannportalen.no/veiledere/klassifiseringsveileder/ (last access: 9 June 2022), 2018.
Welch, E. B. and Cooke, G. D.: Internal phosphorus loading in shallow lakes:
importance and control, Lake Reserv. Manage., 21, 209–217, 2005.
Williams, B. J. and Cole, B.: Mining monitored data for decision-making with
a Bayesian network model, Ecol. Model., 249, 26–36,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.07.008, 2013.
Wong, T.-T.: Performance evaluation of classification algorithms by k-fold
and leave-one-out cross validation, Pattern Recog., 48, 2839–2846,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patcog.2015.03.009, 2015.
Yang, Y., Colom, W., Pierson, D., and Pettersson, K.: Water column stability
and summer phytoplankton dynamics in a temperate lake (Lake Erken, Sweden),
Inland Waters, 6, 499–508, https://doi.org/10.1080/IW-6.4.874, 2016.
Short summary
We develop a Gaussian Bayesian network (GBN) for seasonal forecasting of lake water quality and algal bloom risk in a nutrient-impacted lake in southern Norway. Bayesian networks are powerful tools for environmental modelling but are almost exclusively discrete. We demonstrate that a continuous GBN is a promising alternative approach. Predictive performance of the GBN was similar or improved compared to a discrete network, and it was substantially less time-consuming and subjective to develop.
We develop a Gaussian Bayesian network (GBN) for seasonal forecasting of lake water quality and...
