Articles | Volume 23, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5111-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5111-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Dec 2019
Research article |
| 17 Dec 2019
| 17 Dec 2019
Evaluation of drought representation and propagation in regional climate model simulations across Spain
Anaïs Barella-Ortiz
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Observatori de l'Ebre, Universitat Ramon Llull – CSIC, Roquetes, Spain
Pere Quintana-Seguí
Observatori de l'Ebre, Universitat Ramon Llull – CSIC, Roquetes, Spain
Related authors
Pierre Laluet, Luis Olivera-Guerra, Víctor Altés, Vincent Rivalland, Alexis Jeantet, Julien Tournebize, Omar Cenobio-Cruz, Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Josep Maria Villar, and Olivier Merlin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3695–3716, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3695-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3695-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring agricultural drainage flow in irrigated areas is key to water and soil management. In this paper, four simple drainage models are evaluated on two irrigated sub-basins where drainage flow is measured daily. The evaluation of their precision shows that they simulate drainage very well when calibrated with drainage data and that one of them is slightly better. The evaluation of their accuracy shows that only one model can provide rough drainage estimates without calibration data.
Jacopo Dari, Luca Brocca, Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, Silvia Barbetta, Raphael Quast, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Vahid Freeman, Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Pere Quintana-Seguí, David Bretreger, and Espen Volden
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1555–1575, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1555-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1555-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation is the main source of global freshwater consumption. Despite this, a detailed knowledge of irrigation dynamics (i.e., timing, extent of irrigated areas, and amounts of water used) are generally lacking worldwide. Satellites represent a useful tool to fill this knowledge gap and monitor irrigation water from space. In this study, three regional-scale and high-resolution (1 and 6 km) products of irrigation amounts estimated by inverting the satellite soil moisture signals are presented.
Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Jan Polcher, Patricia de Rosnay, Maria Piles, and Emiliano Gelati
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 357–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-357-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-357-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
L-band radiometry is considered to be one of the most suitable techniques for estimating surface soil moisture (SSM) by means of remote sensing. Brightness temperatures are key in this process, as they are the main input in the retrieval algorithm which yields SSM. This paper compares brightness temperatures measured by the SMOS mission to two different sets of modelled ones. It shows that models and remote-sensed values agree well in temporal variability, but not in their spatial structures.
Pierre Laluet, Luis Olivera-Guerra, Víctor Altés, Vincent Rivalland, Alexis Jeantet, Julien Tournebize, Omar Cenobio-Cruz, Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Josep Maria Villar, and Olivier Merlin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3695–3716, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3695-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3695-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring agricultural drainage flow in irrigated areas is key to water and soil management. In this paper, four simple drainage models are evaluated on two irrigated sub-basins where drainage flow is measured daily. The evaluation of their precision shows that they simulate drainage very well when calibrated with drainage data and that one of them is slightly better. The evaluation of their accuracy shows that only one model can provide rough drainage estimates without calibration data.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Jacopo Dari, Luca Brocca, Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, Silvia Barbetta, Raphael Quast, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Vahid Freeman, Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Pere Quintana-Seguí, David Bretreger, and Espen Volden
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1555–1575, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1555-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1555-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation is the main source of global freshwater consumption. Despite this, a detailed knowledge of irrigation dynamics (i.e., timing, extent of irrigated areas, and amounts of water used) are generally lacking worldwide. Satellites represent a useful tool to fill this knowledge gap and monitor irrigation water from space. In this study, three regional-scale and high-resolution (1 and 6 km) products of irrigation amounts estimated by inverting the satellite soil moisture signals are presented.
Kunlong He, Wei Zhao, Luca Brocca, and Pere Quintana-Seguí
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 169–190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a soil moisture-based precipitation downscaling (SMPD) method for spatially downscaling the GPM daily precipitation product by exploiting the connection between surface soil moisture and precipitation according to the soil water balance equation. Based on this physical method, the spatial resolution of the daily precipitation product was downscaled to 1 km and the SMPD method shows good potential for the development of the high-resolution precipitation product.
Jaime Gaona, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Aaron Boone, and María Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3461–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts represent a particularly complex natural hazard and require explorations of their multiple causes. Part of the complexity has roots in the interaction between the continuous changes in and deviation from normal conditions of the atmosphere and the land surface. The exchange between the atmospheric and surface conditions defines feedback towards dry or wet conditions. In semi-arid environments, energy seems to exceed water in its impact over the evolution of conditions, favoring drought.
Yves Tramblay and Pere Quintana Seguí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1325–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1325-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring soil moisture is important during droughts, but very few measurements are available. Consequently, land-surface models are essential tools for reproducing soil moisture dynamics. In this study, a hybrid approach allowed for regionalizing soil water content using a machine learning method. This approach proved to be efficient, compared to the use of soil property maps, to run a simple soil moisture accounting model, and therefore it can be applied in various regions.
Md Abul Ehsan Bhuiyan, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, Pere Quintana-Seguí, and Anaïs Barella-Ortiz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1371–1389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1371-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1371-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the use of a nonparametric model for combining multiple global precipitation datasets and characterizing estimation uncertainty. Inputs to the model included three satellite precipitation products, an atmospheric reanalysis precipitation dataset, satellite-derived near-surface daily soil moisture data, and terrain elevation. We evaluated the technique based on high-resolution reference precipitation data and further used generated ensembles to force a hydrological model.
Antoine Colmet-Daage, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Sophie Ricci, Cécile Llovel, Valérie Borrell Estupina, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Maria Carmen Llasat, and Eric Servat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 673–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-673-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-673-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Here, the first assessment of future changes in extreme precipitation in small Mediterranean watersheds is done through three watersheds frequently subjected to flash floods. Collaboration between Spanish and French laboratories enabled us to conclude that the intensity of high precipitation will increase at the end of the century. A high degree of confidence results from the multi-model approach used here with eight regional climate models (RCMs) developed in the Med and Euro-CORDEX project.
Pere Quintana-Seguí, Marco Turco, Sixto Herrera, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2187–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2187-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2187-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The quality of two high-resolution precipitation datasets for Spain at the daily time scale is reported: the new SAFRAN-based dataset and Spain02. ERA-Interim is also included. The precipitation products are compared with observations. SAFRAN and Spain02 have very similar scores, and they perform better than ERA-Interim. The high-resolution gridded products overestimate the number of precipitation days. Both SAFRAN and Spain02 underestimate high precipitation events.
Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Jan Polcher, Patricia de Rosnay, Maria Piles, and Emiliano Gelati
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 357–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-357-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-357-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
L-band radiometry is considered to be one of the most suitable techniques for estimating surface soil moisture (SSM) by means of remote sensing. Brightness temperatures are key in this process, as they are the main input in the retrieval algorithm which yields SSM. This paper compares brightness temperatures measured by the SMOS mission to two different sets of modelled ones. It shows that models and remote-sensed values agree well in temporal variability, but not in their spatial structures.
M. C. Llasat, M. Turco, P. Quintana-Seguí, and M. Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 427–441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-427-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-427-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Observation-driven model for calculating water-harvesting potential from advective fog in (semi-)arid coastal regions
Review of gridded climate products and their use in hydrological analyses reveals overlaps, gaps, and the need for a more objective approach to selecting model forcing datasets
Downscaling the probability of heavy rainfall over the Nordic countries
Modelling convective cell life cycles with a copula-based approach
Downscaling precipitation over High-mountain Asia using multi-fidelity Gaussian processes: improved estimates from ERA5
Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Multi-objective calibration and evaluation of the ORCHIDEE land surface model over France at high resolution
Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change in the southern Tibetan Plateau
FROSTBYTE: a reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products for hydrological modelling: impact assessment of the cellular-automata-based methodology in the Tanaro River basin in Italy
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
The agricultural expansion in South America's Dry Chaco: regional hydroclimate effects
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and variable infiltration capacity
Distribution, trends and drivers of flash droughts in the United Kingdom
Are dependencies of extreme rainfall on humidity more reliable in convection-permitting climate models?
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
What Are the Key Soil Hydrological Processes to Control Soil Moisture Memory?
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Leveraging a Disdrometer Network to Develop a Probabilistic Precipitation Phase Model in Eastern Canada
Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over Central Mediterranean toward groundwater management
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
A semi-parametric hourly space–time weather generator
A principal-component-based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) statistics
Accounting for precipitation asymmetry in a multiplicative random cascade disaggregation model
Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
A genetic particle filter scheme for univariate snow cover assimilation into Noah-MP model across snow climates
Investigating the response of land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks to spatial representation of irrigation in a coupled modeling framework
Validation of precipitation reanalysis products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Slovenia
Statistical post-processing of precipitation forecasts using circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks
Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US
Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models
Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process models: a case study in the Upper Colorado River basin
Local moisture recycling across the globe
How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation?
Regionalisation of rainfall depth–duration–frequency curves with different data types in Germany
The suitability of a seasonal ensemble hybrid framework including data-driven approaches for hydrological forecasting
Continuous streamflow prediction in ungauged basins: long short-term memory neural networks clearly outperform traditional hydrological models
Felipe Lobos-Roco, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Camilo del Río
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 109–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Water resources are fundamental for the social, economic, and natural development of (semi-)arid regions. Precipitation decreases due to climate change obligate us to find new water resources. Fog harvesting (FH) emerges as a complementary resource in regions where it is abundant but untapped. This research proposes a model to estimate FH potential in coastal (semi-)arid regions. This model could have broader applicability worldwide in regions where FH could be a viable water source.
Kyle R. Mankin, Sushant Mehan, Timothy R. Green, and David M. Barnard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 85–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 63 gridded ground (G), satellite (S), and reanalysis (R) climate datasets. Higher-density station data and less-hilly terrain improved climate data. In mountainous and humid regions, dataset types performed similarly; however, R outperformed G when underlying data had low station density. G outperformed S or R datasets, although better streamflow modeling did not always follow. Hydrologic analyses need datasets that better represent climate variable dependencies and complex topography.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, and Andreas Dobler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 45–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new method to calculate the chance of heavy downpour and the maximum rainfall expected over a 25-year period. It is designed to analyse global climate models' reproduction of past and future climates. For the Nordic countries, it projects a wetter climate in the future with increased intensity but not necessarily more wet days. The analysis also shows that rainfall intensity is sensitive to future greenhouse gas emissions, while the number of wet days appears to be less affected.
Chien-Yu Tseng, Li-Pen Wang, and Christian Onof
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new algorithm to model convective storms. We used advanced tracking methods to analyse 165 storm events in Birmingham (UK) and reconstruct storm cell life cycles. We found that cell properties like intensity and size are interrelated and vary over time. The new algorithm, based on vine copulas, accurately simulates these properties and their evolution. It also integrates an exponential shape function for realistic rainfall patterns, enhancing its hydrological applicability.
Kenza Tazi, Andrew Orr, Javier Hernandez-González, Scott Hosking, and Richard E. Turner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4903–4925, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to improve the understanding of precipitation patterns in High-mountain Asia, a crucial water source for around 1.9 billion people. Through a novel machine learning method, we generate high-resolution precipitation predictions, including the likelihoods of floods and droughts. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, our method is simpler to implement and more suitable for small datasets. The method also shows accuracy comparable to or better than existing benchmark datasets.
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4819–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach that is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212) and to remotely sensed satellite estimates.
Amy C. Green, Chris Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4539–4558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well in generating realistic weather radar images visually for a large range of event types.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4455–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a reliable historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4361–4381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings show that runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) basin is primarily driven by rainfall, with the largest glacier runoff contribution in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff increased in the upper stream but decreased downstream due to varying precipitation patterns. It is expected to rise throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by increased rainfall.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4127–4155, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river flow months in advance is crucial for water sectors and society. In North America, snowmelt is a key driver of flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flow months ahead in North American snow-fed rivers. Variations in the river flow predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future predictability in a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Iván Noguera, Jamie Hannaford, and Maliko Tanguy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1969, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we present a detailed characterisation of flash drought in United Kingdom over the period 1969–2021.The spatiotemporal distribution of flash droughts is highly variable, with important regional and seasonal contrasts. In the UK, flash drought occurrence responds primarily to precipitation variability, although the atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) is important as a secondary driver. The atmospheric and oceanic conditions during flash droughts development were also analyzed.
Geert Lenderink, Nikolina Ban, Erwan Brisson, Ségolène Berthou, Virginia Edith Cortés-Hernández, Elizabeth Kendon, Hayley Fowler, and Hylke de Vries
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-132, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Future extreme rainfall events are influenced by changes in both absolute and relative humidity. The impact of increasing absolute humidity is reasonably well understood, but the role of relative humidity decreases over land remains largely unknown. Using hourly observations from France and The Netherlands, we find that lower relative humidity generally leads to more intense rainfall extremes. This relation is only captured well in recently developed convection-permitting climate models.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Mohammad Ali Farmani, Ali Behrangi, Aniket Gupta, Ahmad Tavakoly, Matthew Geheran, and Guo-Yue Niu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1256, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how key hydrological processes enhance soil water retention and release in land surface models, crucial for accurate weather and climate forecasting. Experiments show that soil hydraulics effectively sustain soil moisture. Additionally, allowing surface water ponding and improving soil permeability through macropores both enhance soil moisture persistency in the models.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Alexis Bédard-Therrien, François Anctil, Julie M. Thériault, Olivier Chalifour, Fanny Payette, Alexandre Vidal, and Daniel F. Nadeau
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-78, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-78, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Observations from a study site network in eastern Canada showed a temperature interval the overlapping probabilities for rain, snow or a mix of both. Models using random forest algorithms were developed to classify the precipitation phase using meteorological data to evaluate operational applications. They showed significantly improved phase classification compared to benchmarks, but misclassification led to costlier errors. However, accurate prediction of mixed phase remains a challenge.
Lorenzo Silvestri, Miriam Saraceni, Giulia Passadore, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-889, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work demonstrates that seasonal forecasts of soil moisture are a valuable resource for groundwater management in certain areas of the Central Mediterranean. In particular, they show significant correlation coefficients and forecast skill for the deepest soil moisture at 289 cm depth. Wet and dry events can be predicted 6 months in advance and, in general, dry events are better captured than wet events.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Yuanhong You, Chunlin Huang, Zuo Wang, Jinliang Hou, Ying Zhang, and Peipei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2919–2933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to investigate the performance of a genetic particle filter which was used as a snow data assimilation scheme across different snow climates. The results demonstrated that the genetic algorithm can effectively solve the problem of particle degeneration and impoverishment in a particle filter algorithm. The system has revealed a low sensitivity to the particle number in point-scale application of the ground snow depth measurement.
Patricia Lawston-Parker, Joseph A. Santanello Jr., and Nathaniel W. Chaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2787–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation has been shown to impact weather and climate, but it has only recently been considered in prediction models. Prescribing where (globally) irrigation takes place is important to accurately simulate its impacts on temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Here, we evaluated three different irrigation maps in a weather model and found that the extent and intensity of irrigated areas and their boundaries are important drivers of weather impacts resulting from human practices.
Marcos Julien Alexopoulos, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Patrick Nistahl, Mojca Šraj, and Nejc Bezak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2559–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For rainfall-runoff simulation of a certain area, hydrological models are used, which requires precipitation data and temperature data as input. Since these are often not available as observations, we have tested simulation results from atmospheric models. ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 were tested for Slovenian catchments. Both lead to good simulations results. Their usage enables the use of rainfall-runoff simulation in unobserved catchments as a requisite for, e.g., flood protection measures.
Tuantuan Zhang, Zhongmin Liang, Wentao Li, Jun Wang, Yiming Hu, and Binquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1945–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks to correct raw daily forecast precipitation by combining large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information. We find that the method not only captures the westward and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high but also shows substantially higher bias-correction capabilities than existing standard methods in terms of spatial scale, timescale, and intensity.
Zeyu Xue, Paul Ullrich, and Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1909–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments and varying the perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables to provide a guideline for this increasingly popular regional modeling method. Overall, we recommend PGW experiments be performed with perturbations to temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the gridpoint scale, depending on the research question.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel Feldman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1771–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this study is to understand the uncertainties of different modeling configurations for simulating hydroclimate responses in the mountainous watershed. We run a group of climate models with various configurations and evaluate them against various reference datasets. This paper integrates a climate model and a hydrology model to have a full understanding of the atmospheric-through-bedrock hydrological processes.
Jolanda J. E. Theeuwen, Arie Staal, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, Bert V. M. Hamelers, and Stefan C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1457–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation changes over land affect rainfall over land via moisture recycling. We calculated the local moisture recycling ratio globally, which describes the fraction of evaporated moisture that rains out within approx. 50 km of its source location. This recycling peaks in summer as well as over wet and elevated regions. Local moisture recycling provides insight into the local impacts of evaporation changes and can be used to study the influence of regreening on local rainfall.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Bora Shehu, Winfried Willems, Henrike Stockel, Luisa-Bianca Thiele, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1109–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall volumes at varying duration and frequencies are required for many engineering water works. These design volumes have been provided by KOSTRA-DWD in Germany. However, a revision of the KOSTRA-DWD is required, in order to consider the recent state-of-the-art and additional data. For this purpose, in our study, we investigate different methods and data available to achieve the best procedure that will serve as a basis for the development of the new KOSTRA-DWD product.
Sandra M. Hauswirth, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Vincent Beijk, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 501–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts on water availability are important for water managers. We test a hybrid framework based on machine learning models and global input data for generating seasonal forecasts. Our evaluation shows that our discharge and surface water level predictions are able to create reliable forecasts up to 2 months ahead. We show that a hybrid framework, developed for local purposes and combined and rerun with global data, can create valuable information similar to large-scale forecasting models.
Richard Arsenault, Jean-Luc Martel, Frédéric Brunet, François Brissette, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Cited articles
AEMET: Iberian Climate Atlas, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, Madrid, Spain, 2011. a
AghaKouchak, A., Farahmand, A., Melton, F. S., Teixeira, J., Anderson, M. C., Wardlow, B. D., and Hain, C. R.: Remote sensing of drought: Progress, challenges and opportunities, Rev. Geophys., 53, 452–480, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000456, 2015. a
Anagnostopoulou, C.: Drought episodes over Greece as simulated by dynamical and statistical downscaling approaches, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 129, 587–605, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1799-5, 2017. a
Andreadis, K. and Lettenmaier, D.: Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10403, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025711, 2006. a
Balsamo, G., Albergel, C., Beljaars, A., Boussetta, S., Brun, E., Cloke, H., Dee, D., Dutra, E., Pappenberger, F., de Rosnay, P., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Stockdale, F., and Vitart, F.: ERA-Interim/Land: A global land-surface reanalysis based on ERA-Interim meteorological forcing, Tech. rep., ECMWF, 2012. a
Barker, L. J., Hannaford, J., Chiverton, A., and Svensson, C.: From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2483–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2483-2016, 2016. a
Barrera-Escoda, A., Goncalves, M., Guerreiro, D., Cunillera, J., and Baldasano, J.: Projections of temperature and precipitation extremes in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971–2050), Climatic Change, 122, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1027-6, 2013. a
Belo-Pereira, M., Dutra, E., and Viterbo, P.: Evaluation of global precipitation data sets over the Iberian Peninsula, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D20101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015481, 2011. a, b
Beuvier, J., Sevault, F., Herrmann, M., Kontoyiannis, H., Ludwig, W., Rixen, M., Stanev, E., Béranger, K., and Somot, S.: Modeling the Mediterranean Sea interannual variability during 1961–2000: Focus on the Eastern Mediterranean Transient, J. Geophys. Res., 115, C08017, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005950, 2010. a
Blenkinshop, S. and Fowler, H.: Changes in drought frequency, severity and duration for the British Isles projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models, J. Hydrol., 342, 50–71, 2007a. a
Blenkinshop, S. and Fowler, H.: Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1595–1610, 2007b. a
Boone, A., Calvet, J. C., and Noilhan, J.: Inclusion of a Third Soil Layer in a Land Surface Scheme Using the Force–Restore Method, J. Appl. Meteorol., 38, 1611–1630, 1999. a
Bowden, J., Talgo, K., Spero, T., and Nolte, C.: Assessing the Added Value of Dynamical Downscaling Using the Standardized Precipitation Index, Adv. Meteorol., 2016, 8432064, https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/8432064, 2016. a
Christensen, J., Carter, T., Rummukainen, M., and Amanatidis, G.: Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the PRUDENCE approach, Climatic Change, 81, 1–6, 2007. a
Colin, J., Déqué, M., Radu, R., and Somot, S.: Sensitivity study of heavy precipitations in Limited Area Model climate simulations: influence of the size of the domain and the use of the spectral nudging technique, Tellus A, 62, 591–604, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00467.x, 2010. a
Coll-Pajarón, M.: Distribución de la humedad del suelo mediante observaciones del satélite SMOS, modelización con SURFEX y medidas in situ sobre la Valencia Anchor Station, Phd, Universitat de València, available at: http://roderic.uv.es/handle/10550/60877 (last
access: 15 December 2018), 2017. a
Decharme, B., Alkama, R., Douville, H., Becker, M., and Cazenave, A.: Global Evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP Continental Hydrological System. Part II: Uncertainties in River Routing Simulation Related to Flow Velocity and Groundwater Storage, J. Hydrometeor., 11, 601–617, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JHM1212.1, 2010. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P.,
Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C.,
Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm,
E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz,
B. M., Morcrette, J. J., Park, B. K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut,
J. N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance
of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
del Río, S., Herrero, L., Pinto-Gomes, C., and Penas, A.: Spatial analysis of mean temperature trends in Spain over the period 1961–2006, Global Planet. Change, 78, 65–75, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.05.012, 2011. a
de Luis, M., Brunetti, M., González-Hidalgo, J. C., Longares, L. A., and Martín-Vide, J.: Changes in seasonal precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula during 1946–2005, Global Planet. Change, 74, 27–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.06.006, 2010. a
Déqué, M. and Somot, S.: Analysis of heavy precipitation for France using ALADIN RCM simulations, Idöjaras Q. J. Hungarian Meteorological Service, 112, 179–190, 2008. a
de Rosnay, P. and Polcher, J.: Modelling root water uptake in a complex land surface scheme coupled to a GCM, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 2, 239–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2-239-1998, 1998. a, b
Domínguez, M., Romera, R., Sánchez, E., Fita, L., Fernández, J., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Montávez, J., Cabos, W., Liguori, G., and Gaertner, M.: Present-climate precipitation and temperature extremes over Spain from a set of high resolution RCMs, Clim. Res., 58, 149–164, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01186, 2013. a
Durand, Y., Brun, E., Merindol, L., Guyomarc'h, G., Lesaffre, B., and Martin, E.: A meteorological estimation of relevant parameters for snow models, Ann. Glaciol., 18, 65–71, 1993. a
Durand, Y., Giraud, G., Brun, E., Merindol, L., and Martin, E.: A computer-based system simulating snowpack structures as a tool for regional avalanche forecasting, J. Glaciol., 45, 469–484, 1999. a
ECMWF: ERA-Interim, available at:
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/archive-datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-interim, last access: 29 October 2019. a
Edossa, D., Babel, M., and Das Gupta, A.: Drought Analysis in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia, Water Resour. Manag., 24, 1441–1460, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-009-9508-0, 2009. a
Escorihuela, M. J. and Quintana-Seguí, P.: Comparison of remote sensing and simulated soil moisture datasets in
Mediterranean landscapes, Remote Sens. Environ., 180, 99–114,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2016.02.046, 2016. a
FAO: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, Rome, Italy, FAO, 2009. a
Farahmand, A. and AghaKouchak, A.: A generalized framework for deriving nonparametric standardized drought indicators, Adv. Water Resour., 76, 140–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2014.11.012, 2015. a, b
Farda, A., Déqué, M., Somot, S., Horányi, A., Spiridonov, V., and Tóth, H.: Model ALADIN as regional climate model for Central and Eastern Europe, Stud. Geophys. Geod., 54, 313–332, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11200-010-0017-7, 2010. a
Faroux, S., Kaptué Tchuenté, A. T., Roujean, J.-L., Masson, V., Martin, E., and Le Moigne, P.: ECOCLIMAP-II/Europe: a twofold database of ecosystems and surface parameters at 1 km resolution based on satellite information for use in land surface, meteorological and climate models, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 563–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-563-2013, 2013. a
Feser, F., Rockel, B., von Storch, H., Winterfeldt, J., and Zahn, M.: Regional Climate Models Add Value to Global Model Data: A Review and Selected Examples, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 1181–1192, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3061.1, 2011. a
Gandin, L. S.: Objective analysis of meteorological fields. By L. S. Gandin. Translated from the Russian. Jerusalem (Israel Program for Scientific Translations), Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 92, 447–447, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709239320, 1966. a
García-Valdecasas Ojeda, M., Gámiz-Fortis, S. R., Castro-Díez, Y., and Esteban-Parra, M.: Evaluation of WRF capability to detect dry and wet periods in Spain using drought indices, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 1569–1594, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025683, 2017. a, b, c
Giorgi, F., Jones, C., and Asrar, G.: Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: The CORDEX framework, WMO Bull, 58, 175–183, 2009. a
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martínez, G. F.: Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003, 2009. a
Herrmann, M., Somot, S., Calmanti, S., Dubois, C., and Sevault, F.: Representation of spatial and temporal variability of daily wind speed and of intense wind events over the Mediterranean Sea using dynamical downscaling: impact of the regional climate model configuration, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1983–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1983-2011, 2011. a
Hoerling, M., Eischeid, J., Perlwitz, J., Quan, X., Zhang, T., and Pegion, P.: On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought, J. Climate, 25, 2146–2161, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00296.1, 2012. a
IPCC: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, in: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Parry, M. L.,
Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J., and Hanson, C. E., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp., 2007. a
IPCC: Climate change 2014: Synthesis Report, in: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R. K., and Meyer, L. A., IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp., 2014. a
Jacobsen, I. and Heise, E.: A new economic method for the computation of the surface temperature in numerical models, Beitr. Phys. Atm., 55, 128–141, 1982. a
Jenkins, K. and Warren, R.: Quantifying the impact of climate change on drought regimes using the Standardised Precipitation Index, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 120, 41–54, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1143-x, 2014. a
Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Montávez, J. P., Domínguez, M., Romera, R., Fita, L., Fernández, J., Cabos, W. D., Liguori, G., and Gaertner, M. A.: Description of mean fields and interannual variability in an ensemble of RCM evaluation simulations over Spain: results from the ESCENA project, Clim. Res., 57, 201–220, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01165, 2013. a
Kaptue Tchuente, A. T., Roujean, J. L., and Faroux, S.: ECOCLIMAP-II: An ecosystem classification and land surface parameters database of Western Africa at 1 km resolution for the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project, Remote Sens. Environ., 114, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2009.12.008, 2010. a
Kenawy, A., López-Moreno, J. I., and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: Summer temperature extremes in northeastern Spain: Spatial regionalization and links to atmospheric circulation (1960–2006), Theor. Appl. Climatol., 113, 387–405, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0797-5, 2013. a
Koster, R. D., Guo, Z., Yang, R., Dirmeyer, P. A., Mitchell, K., and Puma, M. J.: On the Nature of Soil Moisture in Land Surface Models, J. Climate, 22, 4322–4335, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2832.1, 2009. a
Krinner, G., Viovy, N., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Ogée, J., Polcher, J., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Sitch, S., and Prentice, I.: A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, GB1015, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GB002199, 2005. a, b
Li, Z. X.: Ensemble Atmospheric GCM Simulation of Climate Interannual Variability from 1979 to 1994, J. Climate, 12, 986–1001, 1999. a
López-Bustins, J. A., Pascual, D., Pla, E., and Retana, J.: Future variability of droughts in three Mediterranean catchments, Nat. Hazards, 69, 1405–1421, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0754-3, 2013. a
Mariotti, A.: Recent Changes in the Mediterranean Water Cycle: A Pathway toward Long-Term Regional Hydroclimatic Change?, J. Climate, 23, 1513–1525, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3251.1, 2010. a
Martínez-Fernández, J., Sánchez, N., and Herrero-Jiménez, C. M.: Recent trends in rivers with near-natural flow regime: The case of the river headwaters in Spain, Prog. Phys. Geog., 37, 685–700, https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133313496834, 2013. a
Masson, V., Champeaux, J. L., Chauvin, F., Meriguet, C., and Lacaze, R.: A Global Database of Land Surface Parameters at 1-km Resolution in Meteorological and Climate Models, J. Climate, 16, 1261–1282, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442-16.9.1261, 2003. a
Masud, M. B., Khaliq, M. N., and Wheater, H. S.: Future changes to drought characteristics over the Canadian Prairie Provinces based on NARCCAP multi-RCM ensemble, Clim. Dynam., 48, 2685–2705, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3232-2, 2017. a
Maule, C. F., Thejll, P., Christensen, J. H., Svendsen, S. H., and Hannaford, J.: Improved confidence in regional climate model simulations of precipitation evaluated using drought statistics from the ENSEMBLES models, Clim. Dynam., 40, 155–173, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1355-7, 2013. a, b
Meresa, H., Osuch, M., and Romanowicz, R.: Hydro-Meteorological Drought Projections into the 21-st Century for Selected Polish Catchments, Water, 8, 206, https://doi.org/10.3390/w8050206, 2016. a, b
Mishra, A. K. and Singh, V. P.: A review of drought concepts, J. Hydrol., 391, 202–216, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012, 2010. a, b
Mishra, A. and Singh, V. P.: Drought modeling – A review, J. Hydrol., 403, 157–175, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.03.049, 2011. a
Morán-Tejeda, E., Herrera, S., López-Moreno, J. I., Revuelto, J., Lehmann, A., and Beniston, M.: Evolution and frequency (1970–2007) of combined temperature–precipitation modes in the Spanish mountains and sensitivity of snow cover, Reg. Environ. Change, 13, 873–885, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0380-8, 2013. a
Nabat, P. S., Somot, S., Mallet, M., Sánchez-Lorenzo, A., and Wild, M.: Contribution of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols to the changing Euro-Mediterranean climate since 1980, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5605–5611, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060798, 2014. a, b
Ngo-Duc, T., Polcher, J., and Laval, K.: A 53-year forcing data set for land surface models, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D06116, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005434, 2005. a
Noilhan, J. and Mahfouf, J. F.: The ISBA land surface parameterisation scheme, Global Planet. Change, 13, 145–159, https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(95)00043-7, 1996. a, b
Olcina, J.: Tipología de sequías en España, Ería, 56, 201–227, 2001. a
Owens, T., Hoddinott, J., and Kinsey, B.: Ex-Ante Actions and Ex-Post Public
Responses to Drought Shocks: Evidence and Simulations from Zimbabwe, World Dev.,
31, 1239–1255, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(03)00068-8, 2003. a
PaiMazumder, D., Sushama, L., Laprise, R., Khaliq, M., and Sauchyn, D.: Canadian RCM projected changes to short and long term drought characteristics over the Canadian Prairies, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3521, 2013. a
Palmer, W. C.: Meteorological Drought, vol. 30, US Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau Washington, DC, 1965. a
Post, W. and Zobler, L.: Global soil types, 0.5-degree grid (modified zobler), Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/540, 2000. a
Quintana-Seguí, P.: SAFRAN analysis over Spain, ESPRI/IPSL, https://doi.org/10.14768/MISTRALS-HYMEX.1388, 2015. a, b
Quintana-Seguí, P., Peral, M. C., Turco, M., Llasat, M. C., and Martin, E.: Meteorological Analysis Systems in North-East Spain: Validation of SAFRAN and SPAN, J. Environ. Inform., 27, 116–130, https://doi.org/10.3808/jei.201600335, 2016. a
Quintana-Seguí, P., Turco, M., Herrera, S., and Miguez-Macho, G.: Validation of a new SAFRAN-based gridded precipitation product for Spain and comparisons to Spain02 and ERA-Interim, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2187–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2187-2017, 2017. a, b
Quintana-Seguí, P., Barella-Ortiz, A., Regueiro-Sanfiz, S., and Míguez-Macho, G.: The Utility of Land-Surface Model Simulations to Provide Drought Information in a Water Management Context Using Global and Local Forcing Datasets, Water Resour. Manag., https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2160-9, online first, 2019. a, b, c, d, e
Radu, R., Déqué, M., and Somot, S.: Spectral nudging in a spectral regional climate model, Tellus A, 60, 898–910, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00341.x, 2008. a
Reichstein, M., Bahn, M., Ciais, P., Frank, D., Mahecha, M., Seneviratne, S., Zscheischler, J., Beer, C., Buchmann, N., Frank, D., Papale, D., Rammig, A., Smith, P., Thonicke, K., van der Velde, M., Vicca, S., Walz, A., and Wattenbach, M.: Climate extremes and the carbon cycle, Nature, 500, 287–295, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12350, 2013. a
Ritter, B. and Geleyn, J. F.: A comprehensive radiation scheme for numerical weather prediction models with potential applications in climate simulations, Mon. Weather Rev., 120, 303–325, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1992)1200303:ACRSFN2.0.CO;2, 1992. a
Rockel, B., Will, A., and Hense, A.: The Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM (CCLM), Meteorol. Z., 17, 347–348, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0309, 2008. a, b
Ruti, P., Somot, S., Giorgi, F., Dubois, C., Flaounas, E., Obermann, A., Dell'Aquila, A., Pisacane, G., Harzallah, A., Lombardi, E., Ahrens, B., Akhtar, N., Alias, A., Arsouze, T., Aznar, R., Bastin, S., Bartholy, J., Béranger, K., Beuvier, J., Bouffies-Cloché, S., Brauch, J., Cabos, W., Calmanti, S., Calvet, J., Carillo, A., Conte, D., Coppola, E., Djurdjevic, V., Drobinski, P., Elizalde-Arellano, A., Gaertner, M., Galán, P., Gallardo, C., Gualdi, S., Goncalves, M., Jorba, O., Jordà, G., L’Heveder, B., Lebeaupin-Brossier, C., Li, L., Liguori, G., Lionello, P., Maciàs, D., Nabat, P., Onol, B., Raikovic, B., Ramage, K., Sevault, F., Sannino, G., Struglia, M., Sanna, A., Torma, C., and Vervatis, V.: Med-CORDEX Initiative for Mediterranean Climate Studies, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 1187–1208, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00176.1, 2016. a
Serrano, A., García, J. A., Mateos, V. L., Cancillo, M. L., and Garrido, J.: Monthly modes of variation of precipitation over the Iberian peninsula, J. Climate, 12, 2894–2919, 1999. a
Sevault, F., Somot, S., Alias, A., Dubois, C., Lebeaupin-Brossier, C., Nabat, P., Adloff, F., Déqué, M., and Decharme, B.: A fully coupled Mediterranean regional climate system model: design and evaluation of the ocean component for the 1980–2012 period, Tellus A, 66, 23967, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v66.23967, 2014. a, b
Shukla, S. and Wood, A. W.: Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, 2405, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032487, 2008 a
Sousa, P. M., Trigo, R. M., Aizpurua, P., Nieto, R., Gimeno, L., and Garcia-Herrera, R.: Trends and extremes of drought indices throughout the 20th century in the Mediterranean, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 33–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-33-2011, 2011. a, b
Sylla, M. B., Coppola, E., Mariotti, L., Giorgi, F., Ruti, P. M., Dell'Aquila, A., and Bi, X.: Multiyear simulation of the African climate using a regional climate model (RegCM3) with the high resolution ERA-interim reanalysis, Clim. Dynam., 35, 231–247, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0613-9, 2010. a
Turco, M. and Llasat, M. C.: Trends in indices of daily precipitation extremes in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1951–2003, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3213–3226, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-3213-2011, 2011. a
van der Linden, P. and Mitchell, J. F. B. (Eds.): ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and its Impacts: Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project, MetOffice Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK, 160 pp., 2009. a
Van Loon, A.: Hydrological drought explained, WIREs Water, 2, 359–392, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1085, 2015. a
Van Loon, A. F., Van Lanen, H. A. J., Hisdal, H., Tallaksen, L. M., Fendekova,M., Oosterwijk, J., Horvat, O., and Machlica, A.: Understanding hydrological winter drought in Europe, Global Change: Facing Risks and Threats to Water Resources, 189–197, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK, IAHS, 2010. a
Van Loon, A. F. and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: A process-based typology of hydrological drought, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1915–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1915-2012, 2012a. a
Van Loon, A. F., Van Huijgevoort, M. H. J., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Evaluation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of large-scale hydrological models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4057–4078, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4057-2012, 2012b. a
Vicente-Serrano, S.: Differences in spatial patterns of drought on different time scales: An analysis of the Iberian Peninsula, Water Resour. Manage., 20, 37–60, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-2974-8, 2006. a
Vicente-Serrano, S. M. and López-Moreno, J. I.: Hydrological response to different time scales of climatological drought: an evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Index in a mountainous Mediterranean basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 523–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-9-523-2005, 2005. a
Vicente-Serrano, S., López-Moreno, J. I., Beguería, S., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Azorín-Molina, C., and Morán-Tejeda, E.: Accurate Computation of a Streamflow Drought Index, J. Hydrol. Eng., 17, 318–332, 2012. a
Vicente-Serrano, S., Gouveia, C., Camarero, J. J., Beguería, S., Trigo, R., López-Moreno, J., Azorín-Molina, C., Pasho, E., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Revuelto, J., Morán-Tejeda, E., and Sánchez-Lorenzo, A.: Response of vegetation to drought timescales across
global land biomes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 52–57, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1207068110, 2013. a
Vicente-Serrano, S., López-Moreno, J. I., Beguería, S., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Sánchez-Lorenzo, A., García-Ruiz, J. M., Azorín-Molina, C., Morán-Tejeda, E., Revuelto, J., Trigo, R., Coelho, F., and Espejo, F.: Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 44001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001, 2014. a
Vu, M., Raghavan, V., and Liong, S.: Ensemble Climate Projection for Hydro-Meteorological Drought over a river basin in Central Highland, Vietnam, Journal of Civil Engineering, 19, 427–433, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-015-0506-x, 2015. a, b
Wang, D., Hejazi, M., Cai, X., and Valocchi, A. J.: Climate change impact
on meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought in central Illinois, Water Resour.
Res., 47, W09527, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009845, 2011. a, b
Weedon, G., Gomes, S., Viterbo, P., Shuttleworth, W., Blyth, E., Osterle,
H., Adam, J. C., Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., and Best, M.: Creation of the WATCH
Forcing Data and Its Use to Assess Global and Regional Reference
Crop Evaporation over Land during theTwentieth Century, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 823–848, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1369.1, 2011. a
Wilhite, D. A.: Drought: a global assessment, Vols I and II, Routledge Hazards and Disasters Series,
Routledge, London, UK, 2000. a
Wu, C., Xian, Z., and Huang, G.: Meteorological drought in the Beijiang River basin, South China: current observations and future projections, Stoch, Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 30, 1821–1834, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1157-7, 2016. a
Xu, Y., Wang, L., Ross, K. W., Liu, C., and Berry, K.: Standardized soil moisture index for drought monitoring based on soil moisture active passive observations and 36 years of north American land data assimilation system data: A case study in the southeast United States, Remote. Sens., 10, 301, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10020301, 2018. a
Short summary
Drought is an important climatic risk. This study analyses drought representation and propagation by regional climate models from Med-CORDEX simulations using standardized indices. Results show that these models improve meteorological drought representation, but uncertainties are identified in its propagation and the way soil moisture and hydrological droughts are characterized. These are mainly due to model structure, making further improvements in land surface modelling necessary.
Drought is an important climatic risk. This study analyses drought representation and...
