Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5097–5110, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5097-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue: The changing water cycle of the Indo-Gangetic Plain
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5097–5110, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5097-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
04 Oct 2018
Research article
| 04 Oct 2018
Precipitation pattern in the Western Himalayas revealed by four datasets
Hong Li et al.
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Pengxiang Wang, Zuhao Zhou, Jiajia Liu, Chongyu Xu, Kang Wang, Yangli Liu, Jia Li, Yuqing Li, Yangwen Jia, and Hao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-215, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-215, 2022
Preprint under review for HESS
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Considering the impact of the special geological and climatic conditions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau on the hydrological cycle, this study established the WEP-QTP hydrological model. The snow cover and gravel layers affected the temporal and spatial changes of frozen soil and improved the regulation of groundwater on the flow process. Ignoring he influence of special underlying surface conditions has a great impact on the hydrological forecast and water resources utilization in this area.
Shanlin Tong, Weiguang Wang, Jie Chen, Chong-Yu Xu, Hisashi Sato, and Guoqing Wang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-383, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-383, 2021
Revised manuscript under review for GMD
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Plant carbon-sequestration potential is central to moderate atmospheric CO2 concentrations buildup and mitigate climate change. There is an ongoing debate about the main driver of carbon storage. To reconcile this discrepancy, we use SEIB-DGVM to investigate the trend and response mechanism of carbon-stock fractions among water limitation regions. Results show the impact of CO2 and temperature on carbon-stock depends on water limitation, offering a new perspective on carbon-water coupling.
Pengxiang Wang, Zuhao Zhou, Jiajia Liu, Chongyu Xu, Kang Wang, Yangli Liu, Jia Li, Yuqing Li, Yangwen Jia, and Hao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-538, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Combining the geological characteristics of the thin soil layer on the thick gravel layer and the climate characteristics of the long-term snow cover of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the WEP-QTP hydrological model was constructed by dividing a single soil structure into soil and gravel. In contrast to the general cold area, the special environment of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau affects the hydrothermal transport process, which can not be ignored in hydrological forecast and water resource assessment.
Qifen Yuan, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Stein Beldring, Wai Kwok Wong, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5259–5275, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5259-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5259-2021, 2021
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Localized impacts of changing precipitation patterns on surface hydrology are often assessed at a high spatial resolution. Here we introduce a stochastic method that efficiently generates gridded daily precipitation in a future climate. The method works out a stochastic model that can describe a high-resolution data product in a reference period and form a realistic precipitation generator under a projected future climate. A case study of nine catchments in Norway shows that it works well.
Tian Lan, Kairong Lin, Chong-Yu Xu, Zhiyong Liu, and Huayang Cai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5859–5874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5859-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5859-2020, 2020
Zhengke Pan, Pan Liu, Chong-Yu Xu, Lei Cheng, Jing Tian, Shujie Cheng, and Kang Xie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4387, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4369-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4369-2020, 2020
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This study aims to identify the response of catchment water storage capacity (CWSC) to meteorological drought by examining the changes of hydrological-model parameters after drought events. This study improves our understanding of possible changes in the CWSC induced by a prolonged meteorological drought, which will help improve our ability to simulate the hydrological system under climate change.
Wenyan Qi, Jie Chen, Lu Li, Chong-yu Xu, Jingjing Li, Yiheng Xiang, and Shaobo Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-127, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Global hydrological models (GHMs) play important roles in global water resources estimation and it is difficult to obtain parameter values for GHMs. A framework is developed for building GHMs based on parameter regionalization of catchment scale conceptual hydrological models. Four different GHMs established based on this framework can produce reliable streamflow simulations. Over all, it can be used with any conceptual hydrological model even though uncertainty exists in using different models.
Tian Lan, Kairong Lin, Chong-Yu Xu, Xuezhi Tan, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1347–1366, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1347-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1347-2020, 2020
Shaokun He, Shenglian Guo, Chong-Yu Xu, Kebing Chen, Zhen Liao, Lele Deng, Huanhuan Ba, and Dimitri Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-586, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-586, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Aiming at cascade impoundment operation, we develop a classification-aggregation-decomposition method to overcome the
curse of dimensionalityand inflow stochasticity problem. It is tested with a mixed 30-reservoir system in China. The results show that our method can provide lots of schemes to refer to different flood event scenarios. The best scheme outperforms the conventional operating rule, as it increases impoundment efficiency and hydropower generation while flood control risk is less.
Désirée Treichler, Andreas Kääb, Nadine Salzmann, and Chong-Yu Xu
The Cryosphere, 13, 2977–3005, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2977-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2977-2019, 2019
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Glacier growth such as that found on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is counterintuitive in a warming world. Climate models and meteorological data are conflicting about the reasons for this glacier anomaly. We quantify the glacier changes in High Mountain Asia using satellite laser altimetry as well as the growth of over 1300 inland lakes on the TP. Our study suggests that increased summer precipitation is likely the largest contributor to the recently observed increases in glacier and lake masses.
Bin Xiong, Lihua Xiong, Jun Xia, Chong-Yu Xu, Cong Jiang, and Tao Du
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4453–4470, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4453-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4453-2019, 2019
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We develop a new indicator of reservoir effects, called the rainfall–reservoir composite index (RRCI). RRCI, coupled with the effects of static reservoir capacity and scheduling-related multivariate rainfall, has a better performance than the previous indicator in terms of explaining the variation in the downstream floods affected by reservoir operation. A covariate-based flood frequency analysis using RRCI can provide more reliable downstream flood risk estimation.
Hui-Min Wang, Jie Chen, Chong-Yu Xu, Hua Chen, Shenglian Guo, Ping Xie, and Xiangquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4033–4050, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4033-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4033-2019, 2019
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When using large ensembles of global climate models in hydrological impact studies, there are pragmatic questions on whether it is necessary to weight climate models and how to weight them. We use eight methods to weight climate models straightforwardly, based on their performances in hydrological simulations, and investigate the influences of the assigned weights. This study concludes that using bias correction and equal weighting is likely viable and sufficient for hydrological impact studies.
Tian Lan, Kairong Lin, Xuezhi Tan, Chong-Yu Xu, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-301, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-301, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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A calibration scheme was developed for the dynamics of hydrological model parameters. Furthermore, a novel tool was designed to assess the reliability of the dynamized parameter set. The tool evaluates the convergence processes for global optimization algorithms using violin plots (ECP-VP). The results showed that the developed calibration scheme overcame the salient issues for poor model performance. Besides, the ECP-VP tool effectively assessed the reliability of the dynamic parameter set.
Cong Jiang, Lihua Xiong, Lei Yan, Jianfan Dong, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1683–1704, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1683-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1683-2019, 2019
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We present the methods addressing the multivariate hydrologic design applied to the engineering practice under nonstationary conditions. A dynamic C-vine copula allowing for both time-varying marginal distributions and a time-varying dependence structure is developed to capture the nonstationarities of multivariate flood distribution. Then, the multivariate hydrologic design under nonstationary conditions is estimated through specifying the design criterion by average annual reliability.
Lu Li, Mingxi Shen, Yukun Hou, Chong-Yu Xu, Arthur F. Lutz, Jie Chen, Sharad K. Jain, Jingjing Li, and Hua Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1483-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1483-2019, 2019
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The study used an integrated glacio-hydrological model for the hydrological projections of the Himalayan Beas basin under climate change. It is very likely that the upper Beas basin will get warmer and wetter in the future. This loss in glacier area will result in a reduction in glacier discharge, while the future changes in total discharge are uncertain. The uncertainty in future hydrological change is not only from GCMs, but also from the bias-correction methods and hydrological modeling.
Pan Hu, Qiang Zhang, Chong-Yu Xu, Shao Sun, and Jiayi Fang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-73, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
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China is the country highly sensitive to flood disasters. Here we investigated flood disasters and relevant driving factors using meteorological disaster records s and also hourly rainfall data. We used the GeoDetector method to analyze potential driving factors behind flood disasters. We found increased rainstorm-induced flood disasters and increase in flood disaster frequency. Meanwhile, reduced flood-related death rates imply enhanced flood-mitigation infrastructure and facilities.
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Proc. IAHS, 380, 3–8, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, 2018
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5735–5739, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, 2018
Hui-Min Wang, Jie Chen, Alex J. Cannon, Chong-Yu Xu, and Hua Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3739-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3739-2018, 2018
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Facing a growing number of climate models, many selection methods were proposed to select subsets in the field of climate simulation, but the transferability of their performances to hydrological impacts remains doubtful. We investigate the transferability of climate simulation uncertainty to hydrological impacts using two selection methods, and conclude that envelope-based selection of about 10 climate simulations based on properly chosen climate variables is suggested for impact studies.
Bin Xiong, Lihua Xiong, Jie Chen, Chong-Yu Xu, and Lingqi Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1525–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1525-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1525-2018, 2018
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In changing environments, extreme low-flow events are expected to increase. Frequency analysis of low-flow events considering the impacts of changing environments has attracted increasing attention. This study developed a frequency analysis framework by applying 11 indices to trace the main causes of the change in the annual extreme low-flow events of the Weihe River. We showed that the fluctuation in annual low-flow series was affected by climate, streamflow recession and irrigation area.
Abdelkader Mezghani, Andreas Dobler, Jan Erik Haugen, Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, Mikołaj Piniewski, Ignacy Kardel, and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 905–925, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-905-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-905-2017, 2017
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Projected changes estimated from an ensemble of nine model simulations showed that annual means of temperature are expected to increase steadily by 1 °C until 2021–2050 and by 2 °C until 2071–2100 assuming the RCP4.5, which is accelerating assuming the RCP8.5 scenario and can reach up to almost 4 °C by 2071–2100. Similarly to temperature, projected changes in regional annual means of precipitation are expected to increase by 6 to 10 % and by 8 to 16 % for the two future horizons and RCPs.
Diana Fuentes-Andino, Keith Beven, Sven Halldin, Chong-Yu Xu, José Eduardo Reynolds, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3597–3618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3597-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3597-2017, 2017
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Reproduction of past floods requires information on discharge and flood extent, commonly unavailable or uncertain during extreme events. We explored the possibility of reproducing an extreme flood disaster using rainfall and post-event hydrometric information by combining a rainfall-runoff and hydraulic modelling tool within an uncertainty analysis framework. Considering the uncertainty in post–event data, it was possible to reasonably reproduce the extreme event.
Sharad K. Jain, Sanjay K. Jain, Neha Jain, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-100, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Lingqi Li, Lihua Xiong, Chong-Yu Xu, Shenglian Guo, and Pan Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-619, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-619, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The study offers insights into future design floods that are inferred with both AM and POT samplings under nonstationarity caused by changing climate. Future design floods in nonstationarity context are usually (lower than) but not necessarily more different from stationary estimates. AM-based projection is more sensitive to climate change than POT estimates. The over-dispersion in POT arrival rate leads to the invalidation of Poisson assumption that the misuse may induce overestimated floods.
Andreas Dobler, Jan Erik Haugen, and Rasmus Emil Benestad
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-27, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
J. E. Reynolds, S. Halldin, C. Y. Xu, J. Seibert, and A. Kauffeldt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-7437-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-7437-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In this study it was found that time-scale dependencies of hydrological model parameters are a result of the numerical method used in the model rather than a real time-scale-data dependence. This study further indicates that as soon as sub-daily driving data can be secured, flood forecasting in watersheds with sub-daily concentration times is possible with model parameter values inferred from long time series of daily data, as long as an appropriate numerical method is used.
A. Kauffeldt, S. Halldin, A. Rodhe, C.-Y. Xu, and I. K. Westerberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2845–2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2845-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2845-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
A comparison of hydrological models with different level of complexity in Alpine regions in the context of climate change
Modelling evaporation with local, regional and global BROOK90 frameworks: importance of parameterization and forcing
Hydrological concept formation inside long short-term memory (LSTM) networks
A two-step merging strategy for incorporating multi-source precipitation products and gauge observations using machine learning classification and regression over China
Hydrometeorological evaluation of two nowcasting systems for Mediterranean heavy precipitation events with operational considerations
On the links between sub-seasonal clustering of extreme precipitation and high discharge in Switzerland and Europe
Regional, multi-decadal analysis on the Loire River basin reveals that stream temperature increases faster than air temperature
Investigating the response of leaf area index to droughts in southern African vegetation using observations and model simulations
Recent decrease in summer precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula closely links to reduction in local moisture recycling
Exploring the possible role of satellite-based rainfall data in estimating inter- and intra-annual global rainfall erosivity
Critical transitions in the hydrological system: early-warning signals and network analysis
Testing a maximum evaporation theory over saturated land: implications for potential evaporation estimation
The role of morphology in the spatial distribution of short-duration rainfall extremes in Italy
Impact of correcting sub-daily climate model biases for hydrological studies
The Mesoamerican mid-summer drought: the impact of its definition on occurrences and recent changes
Reconstructing climate trends adds skills to seasonal reference crop evapotranspiration forecasting
Influence of initial soil moisture in a regional climate model study over West Africa – Part 1: Impact on the climate mean
Influence of initial soil moisture in a regional climate model study over West Africa – Part 2: Impact on the climate extremes
Compound flood impact forecasting: integrating fluvial and flash flood impact assessments into a unified system
Ensemble streamflow forecasting over a cascade reservoir catchment with integrated hydrometeorological modeling and machine learning
Machine-learning methods to assess the effects of a non-linear damage spectrum taking into account soil moisture on winter wheat yields in Germany
Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean area: contrasting two different models for moisture source identification
Flexible and consistent quantile estimation for intensity–duration–frequency curves
Evaluation of Asian summer precipitation in different configurations of a high-resolution general circulation model in a range of decision-relevant spatial scales
Rainfall-induced shallow landslides and soil wetness: comparison of physically based and probabilistic predictions
Land use and climate change effects on water yield from East African forested water towers
Easy-to-use spatial random-forest-based downscaling-calibration method for producing precipitation data with high resolution and high accuracy
Improved parameterization of snow albedo in Noah coupled with Weather Research and Forecasting: applicability to snow estimates for the Tibetan Plateau
A 10 km North American precipitation and land-surface reanalysis based on the GEM atmospheric model
Contribution of moisture sources to precipitation changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region
Impacts of land use and land cover change and reforestation on summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basin
Mass balance and hydrological modeling of the Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in south-central Norway
Long-term relative decline in evapotranspiration with increasing runoff on fractional land surfaces
Decision tree-based detection of blowing snow events in the European Alps
Changes in the simulation of atmospheric instability over the Iberian Peninsula due to the use of 3DVAR data assimilation
Simulating the evolution of the topography–climate coupled system
Using data assimilation to optimize pedotransfer functions using field-scale in situ soil moisture observations
Impact of frozen soil processes on soil thermal characteristics at seasonal to decadal scales over the Tibetan Plateau and North China
The development and persistence of soil moisture stress during drought across southwestern Germany
Summary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 2: Future change in cryosphere, vegetation, and hydrology
Improving soil moisture prediction of a high-resolution land surface model by parameterising pedotransfer functions through assimilation of SMAP satellite data
Evaluating a land surface model at a water-limited site: implications for land surface contributions to droughts and heatwaves
A two-stage blending approach for merging multiple satellite precipitation estimates and rain gauge observations: an experiment in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau
Identifying robust bias adjustment methods for European extreme precipitation in a multi-model pseudo-reality setting
Developing a hydrological monitoring and sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting system for South and Southeast Asian river basins
Simulation analysis of local land atmosphere coupling in rainy season over a typical underlying surface in the Tibetan Plateau
Intensification characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes in the Asian monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming
Last-decade progress in understanding and modeling the land surface processes on the Tibetan Plateau
On the potential of variational calibration for a fully distributed hydrological model: application on a Mediterranean catchment
Accelerated hydrological cycle over the Sanjiangyuan region induces more streamflow extremes at different global warming levels
Francesca Carletti, Adrien Michel, Francesca Casale, Alice Burri, Daniele Bocchiola, Mathias Bavay, and Michael Lehning
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3447–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, 2022
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High Alpine catchments are dominated by the melting of seasonal snow cover and glaciers, whose amount and seasonality are expected to be modified by climate change. This paper compares the performances of different types of models in reproducing discharge among two catchments under present conditions and climate change. Despite many advantages, the use of simpler models for climate change applications is controversial as they do not fully represent the physics of the involved processes.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, Rico Kronenberg, Thomas Grünwald, and Christian Bernhofer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3177–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3177-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3177-2022, 2022
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In the study we analysed the uncertainties of the meteorological data and model parameterization for evaporation modelling. We have taken a physically based lumped BROOK90 model and applied it in three different frameworks using global, regional and local datasets. Validating the simulations with eddy-covariance data from five stations in Germany, we found that the accuracy model parameterization plays a bigger role than the quality of the meteorological forcing.
Thomas Lees, Steven Reece, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Jens De Bruijn, Reetik Kumar Sahu, Peter Greve, Louise Slater, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3079–3101, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, 2022
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Despite the accuracy of deep learning rainfall-runoff models, we are currently uncertain of what these models have learned. In this study we explore the internals of one deep learning architecture and demonstrate that the model learns about intermediate hydrological stores of soil moisture and snow water, despite never having seen data about these processes during training. Therefore, we find evidence that the deep learning approach learns a physically realistic mapping from inputs to outputs.
Huajin Lei, Hongyu Zhao, and Tianqi Ao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2969–2995, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2969-2022, 2022
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How to combine multi-source precipitation data effectively is one of the hot topics in hydrometeorological research. This study presents a two-step merging strategy based on machine learning for multi-source precipitation merging over China. The results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively distinguishes the occurrence of precipitation events and reduces the error in precipitation estimation. This method is robust and may be successfully applied to other areas even with scarce data.
Alexane Lovat, Béatrice Vincendon, and Véronique Ducrocq
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2697–2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2697-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2697-2022, 2022
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The hydrometeorological skills of two new nowcasting systems for forecasting Mediterranean intense rainfall events and floods are investigated. The results reveal that up to 75 or 90 min of forecast the performance of the nowcasting system blending numerical weather prediction and extrapolation of radar estimation is higher than the numerical weather model. For lead times up to 3 h the skills are equivalent in general. Using these nowcasting systems for flash flood forecasting is also promising.
Alexandre Tuel, Bettina Schaefli, Jakob Zscheischler, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2649–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, 2022
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River discharge is strongly influenced by the temporal structure of precipitation. Here, we show how extreme precipitation events that occur a few days or weeks after a previous event have a larger effect on river discharge than events occurring in isolation. Windows of 2 weeks or less between events have the most impact. Similarly, periods of persistent high discharge tend to be associated with the occurrence of several extreme precipitation events in close succession.
Hanieh Seyedhashemi, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Jacob S. Diamond, Dominique Thiéry, Céline Monteil, Frédéric Hendrickx, Anthony Maire, and Florentina Moatar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2583–2603, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2583-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2583-2022, 2022
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Stream temperature appears to be increasing globally, but its rate remains poorly constrained due to a paucity of long-term data. Using a thermal model, this study provides a large-scale understanding of the evolution of stream temperature over a long period (1963–2019). This research highlights that air temperature and streamflow can exert joint influence on stream temperature trends, and riparian shading in small mountainous streams may mitigate warming in stream temperatures.
Shakirudeen Lawal, Stephen Sitch, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Hao-Wei Wey, Pierre Friedlingstein, Hanqin Tian, and Bruce Hewitson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2045–2071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, 2022
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To investigate the impacts of drought on vegetation, which few studies have done due to various limitations, we used the leaf area index as proxy and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to simulate drought impacts because the models use observationally derived climate. We found that the semi-desert biome responds strongly to drought in the summer season, while the tropical forest biome shows a weak response. This study could help target areas to improve drought monitoring and simulation.
Yubo Liu, Monica Garcia, Chi Zhang, and Qiuhong Tang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1925–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1925-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1925-2022, 2022
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Our findings indicate that the reduction in contribution to the Iberian Peninsula (IP) summer precipitation is mainly concentrated in the IP and its neighboring grids. Compared with 1980–1997, both local recycling and external moisture were reduced during 1998–2019. The reduction in local recycling in the IP closely links to the disappearance of the wet years and the decreasing contribution in the dry years.
Nejc Bezak, Pasquale Borrelli, and Panos Panagos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1907–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1907-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1907-2022, 2022
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Rainfall erosivity is one of the main factors in soil erosion. A satellite-based global map of rainfall erosivity was constructed using data with a 30 min time interval. It was shown that the satellite-based precipitation products are an interesting option for estimating rainfall erosivity, especially in regions with limited ground data. However, ground-based high-frequency precipitation measurements are (still) essential for accurate estimates of rainfall erosivity.
Xueli Yang, Zhi-Hua Wang, and Chenghao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1845-2022, 2022
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In this study, we investigated potentially catastrophic transitions in hydrological processes by identifying the early-warning signals which manifest as a
critical slowing downin complex dynamic systems. We then analyzed the precipitation network of cities in the contiguous United States and found that key network parameters, such as the nodal density and the clustering coefficient, exhibit similar dynamic behaviour, which can serve as novel early-warning signals for the hydrological system.
Zhuoyi Tu, Yuting Yang, and Michael L. Roderick
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1745–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1745-2022, 2022
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Here we test a maximum evaporation theory that acknowledges the interdependence between radiation, surface temperature, and evaporation over saturated land. We show that the maximum evaporation approach recovers observed evaporation and surface temperature under non-water-limited conditions across a broad range of bio-climates. The implication is that the maximum evaporation concept can be used to predict potential evaporation that has long been a major difficulty for the hydrological community.
Paola Mazzoglio, Ilaria Butera, Massimiliano Alvioli, and Pierluigi Claps
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1659–1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1659-2022, 2022
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We have analyzed the spatial dependence of rainfall extremes upon elevation and morphology in Italy. Regression analyses show that previous rainfall–elevation relations at national scale can be substantially improved with new data, both using topography attributes and constraining the analysis within areas stemming from geomorphological zonation. Short-duration mean rainfall depths can then be estimated, all over Italy, using different parameters in each area of the geomorphological subdivision.
Mina Faghih, François Brissette, and Parham Sabeti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1545–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1545-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1545-2022, 2022
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The diurnal cycles of precipitation and temperature generated by climate models are biased. This work investigates whether or not impact modellers should correct the diurnal cycle biases prior to conducting hydrological impact studies at the sub-daily scale. The results show that more accurate streamflows are obtained when the diurnal cycles biases are corrected. This is noticeable for smaller catchments, which have a quicker reaction time to changes in precipitation and temperature.
Edwin P. Maurer, Iris T. Stewart, Kenneth Joseph, and Hugo G. Hidalgo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1425–1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1425-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1425-2022, 2022
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The mid-summer drought (MSD) is common in Mesoamerica. It is a short (weeks-long) period of reduced rainfall near the middle of the rainy season. When it occurs, how long it lasts, and how dry it is all have important implications for smallholder farmers. Studies of changes in MSD characteristics rely on defining characteristics of an MSD. Different definitions affect whether an area would be considered to experience an MSD as well as the changes that have happened in the last 40 years.
Qichun Yang, Quan J. Wang, Andrew W. Western, Wenyan Wu, Yawen Shao, and Kirsti Hakala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 941–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-941-2022, 2022
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Forecasts of evaporative water loss in the future are highly valuable for water resource management. These forecasts are often produced using the outputs of climate models. We developed an innovative method to correct errors in these forecasts, particularly the errors caused by deficiencies of climate models in modeling the changing climate. We apply this method to seasonal forecasts of evaporative water loss across Australia and achieve significant improvements in the forecast quality.
Brahima Koné, Arona Diedhiou, Adama Diawara, Sandrine Anquetin, N'datchoh Evelyne Touré, Adama Bamba, and Arsene Toka Kobea
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 711–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-711-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-711-2022, 2022
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The impact of initial soil moisture anomalies can persist for up to 3–4 months and is greater on temperature than on precipitation over West Africa. The strongest homogeneous impact on temperature is located over the Central Sahel, with a peak change of −1.5 and 0.5 °C in the wet and dry experiments, respectively. The strongest impact on precipitation in the wet and dry experiments is found over the West and Central Sahel, with a peak change of about 40 % and −8 %, respectively.
Brahima Koné, Arona Diedhiou, Adama Diawara, Sandrine Anquetin, N'datchoh Evelyne Touré, Adama Bamba, and Arsene Toka Kobea
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 731–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-731-2022, 2022
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The impact of initial soil moisture is more significant on temperature extremes than on precipitation extremes. A stronger impact is found on maximum temperature than on minimum temperature. The impact on extreme precipitation indices is homogeneous, especially over the Central Sahel, and dry (wet) experiments tend to decrease (increase) the number of precipitation extreme events but not their intensity.
Josias Láng-Ritter, Marc Berenguer, Francesco Dottori, Milan Kalas, and Daniel Sempere-Torres
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-689-2022, 2022
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During flood events, emergency managers such as civil protection authorities rely on flood forecasts to make informed decisions. In the current practice, they monitor several separate forecasts, each one of them covering a different type of flooding. This can be time-consuming and confusing, ultimately compromising the effectiveness of the emergency response. This work illustrates how the automatic combination of flood type-specific impact forecasts can improve decision support systems.
Junjiang Liu, Xing Yuan, Junhan Zeng, Yang Jiao, Yong Li, Lihua Zhong, and Ling Yao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 265–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-265-2022, 2022
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Hourly streamflow ensemble forecasts with the CSSPv2 land surface model and ECMWF meteorological forecasts reduce both the probabilistic and deterministic forecast error compared with the ensemble streamflow prediction approach during the first week. The deterministic forecast error can be further reduced in the first 72 h when combined with the long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning method. The forecast skill for LSTM using only historical observations drops sharply after the first 24 h.
Michael Peichl, Stephan Thober, Luis Samaniego, Bernd Hansjürgens, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6523–6545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6523-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6523-2021, 2021
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Using a statistical model that can also take complex systems into account, the most important factors affecting wheat yield in Germany are determined. Different spatial damage potentials are taken into account. In many parts of Germany, yield losses are caused by too much soil water in spring. Negative heat effects as well as damaging soil drought are identified especially for north-eastern Germany. The model is able to explain years with exceptionally high yields (2014) and losses (2003, 2018).
Sara Cloux, Daniel Garaboa-Paz, Damián Insua-Costa, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, and Vicente Pérez-Muñuzuri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6465–6477, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6465-2021, 2021
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We examine the performance of a widely used Lagrangian method for moisture tracking by comparing it with a highly accurate Eulerian tool, both operating on the same WRF atmospheric model fields. Although the Lagrangian approach is very useful for a qualitative analysis of moisture sources, it has important limitations in quantifying the contribution of individual sources to precipitation. These drawbacks should be considered by other authors in the future so as to not draw erroneous conclusions.
Felix S. Fauer, Jana Ulrich, Oscar E. Jurado, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6479–6494, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6479-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6479-2021, 2021
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Extreme rainfall events are modeled in this study for different timescales. A new parameterization of the dependence between extreme values and their timescale enables our model to estimate extremes on very short (1 min) and long (5 d) timescales simultaneously. We compare different approaches of modeling this dependence and find that our new model improves performance for timescales between 2 h and 2 d without affecting model performance on other timescales.
Mark R. Muetzelfeldt, Reinhard Schiemann, Andrew G. Turner, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Malcolm J. Roberts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6381–6405, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6381-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6381-2021, 2021
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Simulating East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) rainfall poses many challenges because of its multi-scale nature. We evaluate three setups of a 14 km global climate model against observations to see if they improve simulated rainfall. We do this over catchment basins of different sizes to estimate how model performance depends on spatial scale. Using explicit convection improves rainfall diurnal cycle, yet more model tuning is needed to improve mean and intensity biases in simulated summer rainfall.
Elena Leonarduzzi, Brian W. McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5937–5950, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5937-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5937-2021, 2021
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Landslides are a dangerous natural hazard affecting alpine regions, calling for effective warning systems. Here we consider different approaches for the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides at the regional scale, based on open-access datasets and operational hydrological forecasting systems. We find antecedent wetness useful to improve upon the classical rainfall thresholds and the resolution of the hydrological model used for its estimate to be a critical aspect.
Charles Nduhiu Wamucii, Pieter R. van Oel, Arend Ligtenberg, John Mwangi Gathenya, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5641–5665, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5641-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5641-2021, 2021
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East African water towers (WTs) are under pressure from human influences within and without, but the water yield (WY) is more sensitive to climate changes from within. Land use changes have greater impacts on WY in the surrounding lowlands. The WTs have seen a strong shift towards wetter conditions while, at the same time, the potential evapotranspiration is gradually increasing. The WTs were identified as non-resilient, and future WY may experience more extreme variations.
Chuanfa Chen, Baojian Hu, and Yanyan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5667–5682, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5667-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5667-2021, 2021
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This study proposes an easy-to-use downscaling-calibration method based on a spatial random forest with the incorporation of high-resolution variables. The proposed method is general, robust, accurate and easy to use as it shows more accurate results than the classical methods in the study area with heterogeneous terrain morphology and precipitation. It can be easily applied to other regions where precipitation data with high resolution and high accuracy are urgently required.
Lian Liu, Yaoming Ma, Massimo Menenti, Rongmingzhu Su, Nan Yao, and Weiqiang Ma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4967–4981, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4967-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4967-2021, 2021
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Albedo is a key factor in land surface energy balance, which is difficult to successfully reproduce by models. Here, we select eight snow events on the Tibetan Plateau to evaluate the universal improvements of our improved albedo scheme. The RMSE relative reductions for temperature, albedo, sensible heat flux and snow depth reach 27%, 32%, 13% and 21%, respectively, with remarkable increases in the correlation coefficients. This presents a strong potential of our scheme for modeling snow events.
Nicolas Gasset, Vincent Fortin, Milena Dimitrijevic, Marco Carrera, Bernard Bilodeau, Ryan Muncaster, Étienne Gaborit, Guy Roy, Nedka Pentcheva, Maxim Bulat, Xihong Wang, Radenko Pavlovic, Franck Lespinas, Dikra Khedhaouiria, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4917–4945, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4917-2021, 2021
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In this paper, we highlight the importance of including land-data assimilation as well as offline precipitation analysis components in a regional reanalysis system. We also document the performance of the first multidecadal 10 km reanalysis performed with the GEM atmospheric model that can be used for seamless land-surface and hydrological modelling in North America. It is of particular interest for transboundary basins, as existing datasets often show discontinuities at the border.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Hui Peng, Shangbin Xiao, and Denghua Yan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4759–4772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4759-2021, 2021
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Precipitation change in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) plays a critical role in the operation and regulation of the Three Gorges Dam and the protection of residents and properties. We investigated the long-term contribution of moisture sources to precipitation changes in this region with an atmospheric moisture tracking model. We found that southwestern source regions (especially the southeastern tip of the Tibetan Plateau) are the key regions that control TGRR precipitation changes.
Wei Li, Lu Li, Jie Chen, Qian Lin, and Hua Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4531–4548, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4531-2021, 2021
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Reforestation can influence climate, but the sensitivity of summer rainfall to reforestation is rarely investigated. We take two reforestation scenarios to assess the impacts of reforestation on summer rainfall under different reforestation proportions and explore the potential mechanisms. This study concludes that reforestation increases summer rainfall amount and extremes through thermodynamics processes, and the effects are more pronounced in populated areas than over the whole basin.
Trude Eidhammer, Adam Booth, Sven Decker, Lu Li, Michael Barlage, David Gochis, Roy Rasmussen, Kjetil Melvold, Atle Nesje, and Stefan Sobolowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4275–4297, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4275-2021, 2021
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We coupled a detailed snow–ice model (Crocus) to represent glaciers in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro model and tested it on a well-studied glacier. Several observational systems were used to evaluate the system, i.e., satellites, ground-penetrating radar (used over the glacier for snow depth) and stake observations for glacier mass balance and discharge measurements in rivers from the glacier. Results showed improvements in the streamflow projections when including the model.
Ren Wang, Pierre Gentine, Jiabo Yin, Lijuan Chen, Jianyao Chen, and Longhui Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3805–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3805-2021, 2021
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Assessment of changes in the global water cycle has been a challenge. This study estimated long-term global latent heat and sensible heat fluxes for recent decades using machine learning and ground observations. The results found that the decline in evaporative fraction was typically accompanied by an increase in long-term runoff in over 27.06 % of the global land areas. The observation-driven findings emphasized that surface vegetation has great impacts in regulating water and energy cycles.
Zhipeng Xie, Weiqiang Ma, Yaoming Ma, Zeyong Hu, Genhou Sun, Yizhe Han, Wei Hu, Rongmingzhu Su, and Yixi Fan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3783–3804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3783-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3783-2021, 2021
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Ground information on the occurrence of blowing snow has been sorely lacking because direct observations of blowing snow are sparse in time and space. In this paper, we investigated the potential capability of the decision tree model to detect blowing snow events in the European Alps. Trained with routine meteorological observations, the decision tree model can be used as an efficient tool to detect blowing snow occurrences across different regions requiring limited meteorological variables.
Santos J. González-Rojí, Sheila Carreno-Madinabeitia, Jon Sáenz, and Gabriel Ibarra-Berastegi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3471–3492, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3471-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3471-2021, 2021
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The simulation of precipitation extreme events is a known problem in modelling. That is why the atmospheric conditions favourable for its development as simulated by two WRF experiments are evaluated in this paper. The experiment including 3DVAR data assimilation outperforms the one without in simulating the TT index, CAPE, and CIN over the Iberian Peninsula. The ingredients for convective precipitation in winter are found at the Atlantic coast, but in summer they are at the Mediterranean coast.
Kyungrock Paik and Won Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2459–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2459-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2459-2021, 2021
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Climate, topography, and tectonics evolve together. To simulate their co-evolution, a fully coupled computer simulation model between local climate and topography is developed in this study. We simulated how the mountain development enhances local rainfall and its feedback on topography through stronger erosion. We found that the evolution of the coupled system can be more complicated than previously thought. The channel concavity on the windward side becomes lower as the wind grows.
Elizabeth Cooper, Eleanor Blyth, Hollie Cooper, Rich Ellis, Ewan Pinnington, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2445–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, 2021
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Soil moisture estimates from land surface models are important for forecasting floods, droughts, weather, and climate trends. We show that by combining model estimates of soil moisture with measurements from field-scale, ground-based sensors, we can improve the performance of the land surface model in predicting soil moisture values.
Qian Li, Yongkang Xue, and Ye Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2089–2107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2089-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2089-2021, 2021
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Most land surface models have difficulty in capturing the freeze–thaw cycle in the Tibetan Plateau and North China. This paper introduces a physically more realistic and efficient frozen soil module (FSM) into the SSiB3 model (SSiB3-FSM). A new and more stable semi-implicit scheme and a physics-based freezing–thawing scheme were applied, and results show that SSiB3-FSM can be used as an effective model for soil thermal characteristics at seasonal to decadal scales over frozen ground.
Erik Tijdeman and Lucas Menzel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2009–2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2009-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2009-2021, 2021
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Low amounts of soil moisture (SM) in the root zone negatively affect crop health. We characterized the development and duration of SM stress across the croplands of southwestern Germany. Development time mainly varied within drought years and was related to the available water-holding capacity of the root zone. Duration varied both within and between drought years and was especially high in 2018. Sensitivity analyses showed that (controls on) SM stress and SM drought characteristics differ.
Chris M. DeBeer, Howard S. Wheater, John W. Pomeroy, Alan G. Barr, Jennifer L. Baltzer, Jill F. Johnstone, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ronald E. Stewart, Masaki Hayashi, Garth van der Kamp, Shawn Marshall, Elizabeth Campbell, Philip Marsh, Sean K. Carey, William L. Quinton, Yanping Li, Saman Razavi, Aaron Berg, Jeffrey J. McDonnell, Christopher Spence, Warren D. Helgason, Andrew M. Ireson, T. Andrew Black, Mohamed Elshamy, Fuad Yassin, Bruce Davison, Allan Howard, Julie M. Thériault, Kevin Shook, Michael N. Demuth, and Alain Pietroniro
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1849–1882, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1849-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1849-2021, 2021
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This article examines future changes in land cover and hydrological cycling across the interior of western Canada under climate conditions projected for the 21st century. Key insights into the mechanisms and interactions of Earth system and hydrological process responses are presented, and this understanding is used together with model application to provide a synthesis of future change. This has allowed more scientifically informed projections than have hitherto been available.
Ewan Pinnington, Javier Amezcua, Elizabeth Cooper, Simon Dadson, Rich Ellis, Jian Peng, Emma Robinson, Ross Morrison, Simon Osborne, and Tristan Quaife
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1617–1641, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1617-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1617-2021, 2021
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Land surface models are important tools for translating meteorological forecasts and reanalyses into real-world impacts at the Earth's surface. We show that the hydrological predictions, in particular soil moisture, of these models can be improved by combining them with satellite observations from the NASA SMAP mission to update uncertain parameters. We find a 22 % reduction in error at a network of in situ soil moisture sensors after combining model predictions with satellite observations.
Mengyuan Mu, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna M. Ukkola, Andy J. Pitman, Teresa E. Gimeno, Belinda E. Medlyn, Dani Or, Jinyan Yang, and David S. Ellsworth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 447–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-447-2021, 2021
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Land surface model (LSM) is a critical tool to study land responses to droughts and heatwaves, but lacking comprehensive observations limited past model evaluations. Here we use a novel dataset at a water-limited site, evaluate a typical LSM with a range of competing model hypotheses widely used in LSMs and identify marked uncertainty due to the differing process assumptions. We show the extensive observations constrain model processes and allow better simulated land responses to these extremes.
Yingzhao Ma, Xun Sun, Haonan Chen, Yang Hong, and Yinsheng Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 359–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-359-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-359-2021, 2021
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A two-stage blending approach is proposed for the data fusion of multiple satellite precipitation estimates (SPEs), which firstly reduces the systematic errors of original SPEs based on a Bayesian correction model and then merges the bias-corrected SPEs with a Bayesian weighting model. The model is evaluated in the warm season of 2010–2014 in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Results show that the blended SPE is greatly improved compared with the original SPEs, even in heavy rainfall events.
Torben Schmith, Peter Thejll, Peter Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Bo Christiansen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Marianne Sloth Madsen, and Christian Steger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, 2021
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European extreme precipitation is expected to change in the future; this is based on climate model projections. But, since climate models have errors, projections are uncertain. We study this uncertainty in the projections by comparing results from an ensemble of 19 climate models. Results can be used to give improved estimates of future extreme precipitation for Europe.
Yifan Zhou, Benjamin F. Zaitchik, Sujay V. Kumar, Kristi R. Arsenault, Mir A. Matin, Faisal M. Qamer, Ryan A. Zamora, and Kiran Shakya
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-41-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-41-2021, 2021
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South and Southeast Asia face significant food insecurity and hydrological hazards. Here we introduce a South and Southeast Asia hydrological monitoring and sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S) to help local governments and decision-makers prepare for extreme hydroclimatic events. The monitoring system captures soil moisture variability well in most regions, and the forecasting system offers skillful prediction of soil moisture variability 2–3 months in advance, on average.
Genhou Sun, Zeyong Hu, Yaoming Ma, Zhipeng Xie, Jiemin Wang, and Song Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5937–5951, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5937-2020, 2020
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We investigate the influence of soil conditions on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) thermodynamics and convective cloud formations over a typical underlying surface, based on a series of simulations on a sunny day in the Tibetan Plateau, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The real-case simulation and sensitivity simulations indicate that the soil moisture could have a strong impact on PBL thermodynamics, which may be favorable for the convective cloud formations.
Jeong-Bae Kim and Deg-Hyo Bae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5799–5820, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5799-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5799-2020, 2020
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We examine changes in hydroclimatic extremes for different climate zones in Asia in response to 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming. Our results indicate consistent changes in temperature extremes and high precipitation (and maximum runoff) extremes across Asia. Extra 0.5 °C warming will lead to enhanced regional hydroclimatic extremes, especially in cold (and polar) climate zones. However, hydroclimatic sensitivities can differ based on regional climate characteristics and types of extreme variables.
Hui Lu, Donghai Zheng, Kun Yang, and Fan Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5745–5758, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5745-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5745-2020, 2020
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The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as the Asian water tower, plays an important role in the regional climate system, while the land surface process is a key component through which the TP impacts the water and energy cycles. In this paper, we reviewed the progress achieved in the last decade in understanding and modeling the land surface processes on the TP. Based on this review, perspectives on the further improvement of land surface modelling on the TP are also provided.
Maxime Jay-Allemand, Pierre Javelle, Igor Gejadze, Patrick Arnaud, Pierre-Olivier Malaterre, Jean-Alain Fine, and Didier Organde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5519–5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5519-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5519-2020, 2020
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This study contributes to flash flood prediction using a hydrological model. The model describes the spatial properties of the watersheds with hundreds of unknown parameters. The Gardon d'Anduze watershed is chosen as the study benchmark. A sophisticated numerical algorithm and the downstream discharge measurements make the identification of the model parameters possible. Results provide better model predictions and relevant spatial variability of some parameters inside this watershed.
Peng Ji, Xing Yuan, Feng Ma, and Ming Pan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5439–5451, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5439-2020, 2020
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By performing high-resolution land surface modeling driven by the latest CMIP6 climate models, we find both the dry streamflow extreme over the drought-prone Yellow River headwater and the wet streamflow extreme over the flood-prone Yangtze River headwater will increase under 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C global warming levels and emphasize the importance of considering ecological changes (i.e., vegetation greening and CO2 physiological forcing) in the hydrological projection.
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Short summary
Precipitation is a key in the water system and glacier fate in the Great Himalayas region. We examine four datasets of available types in the Western Himalayas and they show very large differences. The differences depend much on the data source and are particularly large in monsoon seasons and high-elevation areas. All the datasets show a trend to wetter summer and drier winter and this trend reveals a tendency towards a high-flow seasonality and an unfavorable condition for glaciers.
Precipitation is a key in the water system and glacier fate in the Great Himalayas region. We...
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