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HESS | Articles | Volume 22, issue 7
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3739–3759, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3739-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3739–3759, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3739-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 16 Jul 2018

Research article | 16 Jul 2018

Transferability of climate simulation uncertainty to hydrological impacts

Hui-Min Wang et al.

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Arora, V. K., Scinocca, J. F., Boer, G. J., Christian, J. R., Denman, K. L., Flato, G. M., Kharin, V. V., Lee, W. G., and Merryfield, W. J.: Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046270, 2011. 
Arsenault, R., Gatien, P., Renaud, B., Brissette, F., and Martel, J.-L.: A comparative analysis of 9 multi-model averaging approaches in hydrological continuous streamflow simulation, J. Hydrol., 529, 754–767, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.09.001, 2015. 
Cannon, A. J.: Selecting GCM Scenarios that Span the Range of Changes in a Multimodel Ensemble: Application to CMIP5 Climate Extremes Indices, J. Climate, 28, 1260–1267, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00636.1, 2015. 
Cannon, F., Carvalho, L. M. V., Jones, C., Norris, J., Bookhagen, B., and Kiladis, G. N.: Effects of topographic smoothing on the simulation of winter precipitation in High Mountain Asia, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 1456–1474, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jd026038, 2017. 
Chen, J., Brissette, F. P., and Leconte, R.: Uncertainty of downscaling method in quantifying the impact of climate change on hydrology, J. Hydrol., 401, 190–202, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.02.020, 2011a. 
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Facing a growing number of climate models, many selection methods were proposed to select subsets in the field of climate simulation, but the transferability of their performances to hydrological impacts remains doubtful. We investigate the transferability of climate simulation uncertainty to hydrological impacts using two selection methods, and conclude that envelope-based selection of about 10 climate simulations based on properly chosen climate variables is suggested for impact studies.
Facing a growing number of climate models, many selection methods were proposed to select...
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