Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3533–3549, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3533-2018

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3533–3549, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3533-2018

Research article 29 Jun 2018

Research article | 29 Jun 2018

Seasonal streamflow forecasting in the upper Indus Basin of Pakistan: an assessment of methods

Stephen P. Charles et al.

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Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Cited articles

Afzal, M., Haroon, M. A., Rana, A. S., and Imran, A.: Influence of North Atlantic Oscillations and Southern Oscillations on winter precipitation of northern Pakistan, Pakistan J. Meteorol., 9, 1–8, 2013. 
Ahmed, K. and Sanchez, M.: A study of the factors and processes involved in the sedimentation of Tarbela reservoir, Pakistan, Environ. Earth Sci., 62, 927–933, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-010-0578-3, 2011. 
Alford, D., Archer, D., Bookhagen, B., Grabs, W., Halvorson, S., Hewitt, K., Immerzeel, W., Kamp, U., and Krumwiede, B.: Monitoring of glaciers, climate and runoff in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya mountains, South Asia Water Initiative Report No. 67668-SAS, World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2014. 
Anghileri, D., Voisin, N., Castelletti, A., Pianosi, F., Nijssen, B., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Value of long-term streamflow forecasts to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated river catchments, Water Resour. Res., 52, 4209–4225, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017864, 2016. 
Archer, D. R. and Fowler, H. J.: Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 47–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-8-47-2004, 2004. 
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Short summary
Predictions of irrigation-season water availability are important for water-limited Pakistan. We assess a Bayesian joint probability approach, using flow and climate indices as predictors, to produce streamflow forecasts for inflow to Pakistan's two largest dams. The approach produces skilful and reliable forecasts. As it is simple and quick to apply, it can be used to provide probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasts that can inform Pakistan's water management.