Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3533–3549, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3533-2018

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3533–3549, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3533-2018

Research article 29 Jun 2018

Research article | 29 Jun 2018

Seasonal streamflow forecasting in the upper Indus Basin of Pakistan: an assessment of methods

Stephen P. Charles et al.

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Short summary
Predictions of irrigation-season water availability are important for water-limited Pakistan. We assess a Bayesian joint probability approach, using flow and climate indices as predictors, to produce streamflow forecasts for inflow to Pakistan's two largest dams. The approach produces skilful and reliable forecasts. As it is simple and quick to apply, it can be used to provide probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasts that can inform Pakistan's water management.