Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3533–3549, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3533-2018

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3533–3549, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3533-2018

Research article 29 Jun 2018

Research article | 29 Jun 2018

Seasonal streamflow forecasting in the upper Indus Basin of Pakistan: an assessment of methods

Stephen P. Charles et al.

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (03 Mar 2018) by Andy Wood
AR by Stephen Charles on behalf of the Authors (12 May 2018)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (01 Jun 2018) by Andy Wood
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Short summary
Predictions of irrigation-season water availability are important for water-limited Pakistan. We assess a Bayesian joint probability approach, using flow and climate indices as predictors, to produce streamflow forecasts for inflow to Pakistan's two largest dams. The approach produces skilful and reliable forecasts. As it is simple and quick to apply, it can be used to provide probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasts that can inform Pakistan's water management.