Articles | Volume 29, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025
Research article
 | 
03 Jan 2025
Research article |  | 03 Jan 2025

Modelling convective cell life cycles with a copula-based approach

Chien-Yu Tseng, Li-Pen Wang, and Christian Onof

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Cited articles

Aas, K., Nagler, T., Jullum, M., and Løland, A.: Explaining Predictive Models Using Shapley Values and Non-Parametric Vine Copulas, Depend. Model., 9, 62–81, https://doi.org/10.1515/demo-2021-0103, 2021. a
Ahn, K.-H.: Coupled Annual and Daily Multivariate and Multisite Stochastic Weather Generator to Preserve Low- and High-Frequency Variability to Assess Climate Vulnerability, J. Hydrol., 581, 124443, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124443, 2020. a
Archer, L., Hatchard, S., Devitt, L., Neal, J. C., Coxon, G., Bates, P. D., Kendon, E. J., and Savage, J.: Future Change in Urban Flooding Using New Convection-Permitting Climate Projections, Water Resour. Res., 60, e2023WR035533, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR035533, 2024. a
Benoit, L., Allard, D., and Mariethoz, G.: Stochastic Rainfall Modeling at Sub-kilometer Scale, Water Resour. Res., 54, 4108–4130, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022817, 2018. a
Birmingham City Council: Birmingham Surface Water Management Plan, Final Report, https://www.birmingham.gov.uk/downloads/file/2561/surface_water_management_plan_for_birmingham_-_final_report (last access: 17 February 2024), 2015. a
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Short summary
This study presents a new algorithm to model convective storms. We used advanced tracking methods to analyse 165 storm events in Birmingham (UK) and reconstruct storm cell life cycles. We found that cell properties like intensity and size are interrelated and vary over time. The new algorithm, based on vine copulas, accurately simulates these properties and their evolution. It also integrates an exponential shape function for realistic rainfall patterns, enhancing its hydrological applicability.
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