Articles | Volume 28, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4331-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4331-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Sep 2024
Research article |
| 20 Sep 2024
| 20 Sep 2024
A hybrid data-driven approach to analyze the drivers of lake level dynamics
Márk Somogyvári
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin 12489, Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin 10099, Germany
Dieter Scherer
Chair of Climatology, Institute of Ecology, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin 12165, Germany
Frederik Bart
Chair of Climatology, Institute of Ecology, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin 12165, Germany
Ute Fehrenbach
Chair of Climatology, Institute of Ecology, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin 12165, Germany
Akpona Okujeni
Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin 12489, Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin 10099, Germany
Earth Observation Lab, Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, 12489, Germany
Tobias Krueger
Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin 12489, Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin 10099, Germany
Related authors
Polina Franke, Aryan Goswami, and Márk Somogyvári
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-471, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts are intensifying due to climate change, impacting water systems and vegetation. This study analyzed drought effects in the Tegeler Fließ catchment from 2008 to 2021. Groundwater faced severe, prolonged droughts, while surface water recovered faster. Vegetation remained resilient, showing no significant stress. Each site revealed unique drought impacts, emphasizing the need for tailored water management and improved vegetation monitoring.
Márk Somogyvári, Fabio Brill, Mikhail Tsypin, Lisa Rihm, and Tobias Krueger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4031, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we examined regional differences in groundwater behavior in Berlin-Brandenburg. We have developed a novel approach, combining standard groundwater modelling tools such with special data analysis techniques. The presented methodology can help to separate areas with different groundwater behavior from each other, which could be used as a starting point for further analysis.
Márk Somogyvári, Michael Kühn, and Sebastian Reich
Adv. Geosci., 49, 207–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-49-207-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-49-207-2019, 2019
Márk Somogyvári, Peter Bayer, and Ralf Brauchler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1885–1901, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1885-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1885-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A new innovative method of aquifer characterization is presented, using tomographic thermal tracer tests to map the hydraulic conductivity distribution. The travel times of the heated water between different sources and receivers are used in the inversion process following an analog procedure with hydraulic tomography. The developed method is a fast and robust alternative of model calibration. The method is tested on a virtual aquifer and shows applicability under a broad range of conditions.
Polina Franke, Aryan Goswami, and Márk Somogyvári
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-471, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts are intensifying due to climate change, impacting water systems and vegetation. This study analyzed drought effects in the Tegeler Fließ catchment from 2008 to 2021. Groundwater faced severe, prolonged droughts, while surface water recovered faster. Vegetation remained resilient, showing no significant stress. Each site revealed unique drought impacts, emphasizing the need for tailored water management and improved vegetation monitoring.
Márk Somogyvári, Fabio Brill, Mikhail Tsypin, Lisa Rihm, and Tobias Krueger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4031, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we examined regional differences in groundwater behavior in Berlin-Brandenburg. We have developed a novel approach, combining standard groundwater modelling tools such with special data analysis techniques. The presented methodology can help to separate areas with different groundwater behavior from each other, which could be used as a starting point for further analysis.
Sophie Wagner, Fabian Stenzel, Tobias Krueger, and Jana de Wiljes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5049–5068, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Statistical models that explain global irrigation rely on location-referenced data. Traditionally, a system based on longitude and latitude lines is chosen. However, this introduces bias to the analysis due to the Earth's curvature. We propose using a system based on hexagonal grid cells that allows for distortion-free representation of the data. We show that this increases the model's accuracy by 28 % and identify biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of historical global irrigation expansion.
Rozemarijn ter Horst, Rossella Alba, Jeroen Vos, Maria Rusca, Jonatan Godinez-Madrigal, Lucie V. Babel, Gert Jan Veldwisch, Jean-Philippe Venot, Bruno Bonté, David W. Walker, and Tobias Krueger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4157–4186, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The exact power of models often remains hidden, especially when neutrality is claimed. Our review of 61 scientific articles shows that in the scientific literature little attention is given to the power of water models to influence development processes and outcomes. However, there is a lot to learn from those who are openly reflexive. Based on lessons from the review, we call for power-sensitive modelling, which means that people are critical about how models are made and with what effects.
Xun Wang, Marco Otto, and Dieter Scherer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2125–2144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2125-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a high-resolution, gridded atmospheric data set combined with landslide inventories to investigate the atmospheric triggers, define triggering thresholds, and characterize the climatic disposition of landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Our results indicate the crucial role of snowmelt in landslide triggering and prediction in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as the added value of climatic disposition derived from atmospheric triggering conditions.
Alexander Krug, Daniel Fenner, Hans-Guido Mücke, and Dieter Scherer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3083–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3083-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates hot weather episodes in eight German cities which are statistically associated with increased mortality. Besides air temperature, ozone concentrations partly explain these mortality rates. The strength of the respective contributions of the two stressors varies across the cities. Results highlight that during hot weather episodes, not only high air temperature affects urban populations; concurrently high ozone concentrations also play an important role in public health.
Dieter Scherer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3835–3850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3835-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3835-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
During the Pliocene, the Qaidam Basin on the Tibetan Plateau contained a mega-lake system. During the Pleistocene, it disappeared almost completely. Today, hyperarid climates prevail in the low-altitude parts of the basin. This study reveals that today's mean water balance of the Qaidam Basin is nearly zero and is positive during warmer, less dry years. The results explain how the mega-lake system could survive for a long time in the past and could eventually be restored in the future.
Márk Somogyvári, Michael Kühn, and Sebastian Reich
Adv. Geosci., 49, 207–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-49-207-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-49-207-2019, 2019
Eva Nora Paton, Anna Smetanová, Tobias Krueger, and Anthony Parsons
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 537–548, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-537-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-537-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We reviewed research perspectives and ambitions of connectivity scientists in order to improve joint connectivity research across disciplinary boundaries. We demonstrated the wide diversity of approaching science in the community. We introduced a shared mental model approach with an exploratory case study as a way to overcome persistent barriers in understanding by identifying gaps and overlaps of individual researchers' perspectives, which improves collaboration in interdisciplinary science.
Julia Curio and Dieter Scherer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 767–782, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-767-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-767-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Using correlation analysis, we examine the influence of selected atmospheric variables, e.g. wind speed and moisture transport, on the precipitation variability over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). We find that different factors have different effects in different regions and seasons and that the midlatitude westerlies have an impact on the precipitation distribution on the TP and its surroundings year-round and not only in winter.
Márk Somogyvári, Peter Bayer, and Ralf Brauchler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1885–1901, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1885-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1885-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A new innovative method of aquifer characterization is presented, using tomographic thermal tracer tests to map the hydraulic conductivity distribution. The travel times of the heated water between different sources and receivers are used in the inversion process following an analog procedure with hydraulic tomography. The developed method is a fast and robust alternative of model calibration. The method is tested on a virtual aquifer and shows applicability under a broad range of conditions.
Oliver Buchin, Britta Jänicke, Fred Meier, Dieter Scherer, and Felix Ziegler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 963–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-963-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-963-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Heat-related risk analysis is based on outdoor climates; however, humans are mostly exposed to indoor climates. A novel heat-related risk concept is developed, which includes exposition to the indoor climate. An exemplary calculation of heat-related mortality reveals that the influence of building physics better explains the variability in the risk data. Simplified building models can be used for indoor hazard calculation as long as the main non-linear effects of the buildings are included.
J. Curio, F. Maussion, and D. Scherer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 109–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-109-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-109-2015, 2015
T. Sauter, M. Möller, R. Finkelnburg, M. Grabiec, D. Scherer, and C. Schneider
The Cryosphere, 7, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1287-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1287-2013, 2013
E. Collier, T. Mölg, F. Maussion, D. Scherer, C. Mayer, and A. B. G. Bush
The Cryosphere, 7, 779–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-779-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-779-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Rivers and Lakes | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Assessing national exposure to and impact of glacial lake outburst floods considering uncertainty under data sparsity
Modeling Lake Titicaca's water balance: the dominant roles of precipitation and evaporation
Effect of floodplain trees on apparent friction coefficient in straight compound channels
The role of neotectonics and climate variability in the Pleistocene-to-Holocene hydrological evolution of the Fuente de Piedra playa lake (southern Iberian Peninsula)
On the cause of large daily river flow fluctuations in the Mekong River
How seasonal hydroclimate variability drives the triple oxygen and hydrogen isotope composition of small lake systems in semiarid environments
Estimating velocity distribution and flood discharge at river bridges using entropy theory – insights from computational fluid dynamics flow fields
Learning from a large-scale calibration effort of multiple lake models
Isotopic evaluation of the National Water Model reveals missing agricultural irrigation contributions to streamflow across the western United States
The influence of permafrost and other environmental controls on stream thermal sensitivity across Yukon, Canada
Timing of spring events changes under modelled future climate scenarios in a mesotrophic lake
Effects of high-quality elevation data and explanatory variables on the accuracy of flood inundation mapping via Height Above Nearest Drainage
Understanding the compound flood risk along the coast of the contiguous United States
Benchmarking high-resolution hydrologic model performance of long-term retrospective streamflow simulations in the contiguous United States
Sources of skill in lake temperature, discharge and ice-off seasonal forecasting tools
Past and future climate change effects on the thermal regime and oxygen solubility of four peri-alpine lakes
Exploring tracer information in a small stream to improve parameter identifiability and enhance the process interpretation in transient storage models
How do inorganic nitrogen processing pathways change quantitatively at daily, seasonal, and multiannual scales in a large agricultural stream?
Seasonal forecasting of lake water quality and algal bloom risk using a continuous Gaussian Bayesian network
Spatially referenced Bayesian state-space model of total phosphorus in western Lake Erie
Future water temperature of rivers in Switzerland under climate change investigated with physics-based models
Physical controls and a priori estimation of raising land surface elevation across the southwestern Bangladesh delta using tidal river management
Evaluation and interpretation of convolutional long short-term memory networks for regional hydrological modelling
Synthesizing the impacts of baseflow contribution on concentration–discharge (C–Q) relationships across Australia using a Bayesian hierarchical model
Calibrating 1D hydrodynamic river models in the absence of cross-section geometry using satellite observations of water surface elevation and river width
A global algorithm for identifying changing streamflow regimes: application to Canadian natural streams (1966–2010)
Streamflow drought: implication of drought definitions and its application for drought forecasting
Quantifying floodwater impacts on a lake water budget via volume-dependent transient stable isotope mass balance
River runoff in Switzerland in a changing climate – changes in moderate extremes and their seasonality
River runoff in Switzerland in a changing climate – runoff regime changes and their time of emergence
Machine-learning methods for stream water temperature prediction
Bathymetry and latitude modify lake warming under ice
Lake thermal structure drives interannual variability in summer anoxia dynamics in a eutrophic lake over 37 years
Reservoir evaporation in a Mediterranean climate: comparing direct methods in Alqueva Reservoir, Portugal
Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming
Anthropogenic influence on the Rhine water temperatures
A new form of the Saint-Venant equations for variable topography
Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy
Assessment of the geomorphic effectiveness of controlled floods in a braided river using a reduced-complexity numerical model
Worldwide lake level trends and responses to background climate variation
Modeling inorganic carbon dynamics in the Seine River continuum in France
A data-based predictive model for spatiotemporal variability in stream water quality
Flooding in the Mekong Delta: the impact of dyke systems on downstream hydrodynamics
Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)
Historical modelling of changes in Lake Erken thermal conditions
Improving lake mixing process simulations in the Community Land Model by using K profile parameterization
Upgraded global mapping information for earth system modelling: an application to surface water depth at the ECMWF
Sediment transport modelling in riverine environments: on the importance of grain-size distribution, sediment density, and suspended sediment concentrations at the upstream boundary
Replication of ecologically relevant hydrological indicators following a modified covariance approach to hydrological model parameterization
Lidar-based approaches for estimating solar insolation in heavily forested streams
Huili Chen, Qiuhua Liang, Jiaheng Zhao, and Sudan Bikash Maharjan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 733–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-733-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-733-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause serious damage. To assess their risks, we developed an innovative framework using remote sensing, Bayesian models, flood modelling, and open-source data. This enables us to evaluate GLOFs on a national scale, despite limited data and challenges accessing high-altitude lakes. We evaluated dangerous lakes in Nepal, identifying those most at risk. This work is crucial for understanding GLOF risks, and the framework can be transferred to other areas.
Nilo Lima-Quispe, Denis Ruelland, Antoine Rabatel, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, and Thomas Condom
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 655–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-655-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-655-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimated the water balance of Lake Titicaca using an integrated modeling framework that considers natural hydrological processes and net irrigation consumption. The proposed approach was implemented at a daily scale for a period of 35 years. This framework is able to simulate lake water levels with good accuracy over a wide range of hydroclimatic conditions. The findings demonstrate that a simple representation of hydrological processes is suitable for use in poorly gauged regions.
Adam P. Kozioł, Adam Kiczko, Marcin Krukowski, Elżbieta Kubrak, Janusz Kubrak, Grzegorz Majewski, and Andrzej Brandyk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 535–545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-535-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-535-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Floodplain trees play a crucial role in increasing flow resistance. Their impact extends beyond floodplains to affect the main channel. The experiments reveal the influence of floodplain trees on the discharge capacity of channels with varying roughness. We determine resistance coefficients for different roughness levels of the main channel bottom. The research contributes to a deeper understanding of open-channel flow dynamics and has practical implications for river engineering.
Alejandro Jiménez-Bonilla, Lucía Martegani, Miguel Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Fernando Gázquez, Manuel Díaz-Azpíroz, Sergio Martos, Klaus Reicherter, and Inmaculada Expósito
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5311–5329, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5311-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5311-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted an interdisciplinary study of the Fuente de Piedra playa lake's evolution in southern Spain. We made water balances for the Fuente de Piedra playa lake's lifespan. Our results indicate that the Fuente de Piedra playa lake's level moved and tilted south-west, which was caused by active faults.
Khosro Morovati, Keer Zhang, Lidi Shi, Yadu Pokhrel, Maozhou Wu, Paradis Someth, Sarann Ly, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5133–5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines large daily river flow fluctuations in the dammed Mekong River, developing integrated 3D hydrodynamic and response time models alongside a hydrological model with an embedded reservoir module. This approach allows estimation of travel times between hydrological stations and contributions of subbasins and upstream regions. Findings show a power correlation between upstream discharge and travel time, and significant fluctuations occurred even before dam construction.
Claudia Voigt, Fernando Gázquez, Lucía Martegani, Ana Isabel Sánchez Villanueva, Antonio Medina, Rosario Jiménez-Espinosa, Juan Jiménez-Millán, and Miguel Rodríguez-Rodríguez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-290, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-290, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This research explores the use of a new isotope tracer, 17O-excess, to better understand how hydrological processes drive large seasonal water level changes in small lakes in semiarid regions. The study shows that triple oxygen isotopes offer a more detailed understanding of these changes compared to traditional methods. These findings are valuable for reconstructing past climates and predicting how climate change, influenced by human activity, will affect small lakes in these dry areas.
Farhad Bahmanpouri, Tommaso Lazzarin, Silvia Barbetta, Tommaso Moramarco, and Daniele P. Viero
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3717–3737, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3717-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The entropy model is a reliable tool to estimate flood discharge in rivers using observed level and surface velocity. Often, level and velocity sensors are placed on bridges, which may disturb the flow. Using accurate numerical models, we explored the entropy model reliability nearby a multi-arch bridge. We found that it is better to place sensors and to estimate the discharge upstream of bridges; downstream, the entropy model needs the river-wide distribution of surface velocity as input data.
Johannes Feldbauer, Jorrit P. Mesman, Tobias K. Andersen, and Robert Ladwig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2447, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Models help to understand natural systems and are used to predict changes based on scenarios e.g. climate change. To simulate water temperature and deduce impact on water quality in lakes, 1D hydrodynamic models are often used. There are several such models which differ in their assumptions and mathematical process description. This study examines the performance of four such models on a global dataset of 73 lakes and relates the performance to the models structure and the lake characteristics.
Annie L. Putman, Patrick C. Longley, Morgan C. McDonnell, James Reddy, Michelle Katoski, Olivia L. Miller, and J. Renée Brooks
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2895–2918, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accuracy of streamflow estimates where water management and use are prevalent, such as the western US, reflect hydrologic modeling decisions. To evaluate process inclusion decisions, we equipped a hydrologic model with tracers and compared estimates to observations. The tracer-equipped model performed well, and differences between the model and observations suggest that the inclusion of water from irrigation may improve model performance in this region.
Andras Janos Szeitz and Sean K. Carey
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1741, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stream temperature sensitivity in northern regions responds to many of the same environmental controls as in temperate regions, but the presence of annually frozen ground (permafrost) influences catchment hydrology and stream temperature regimes. Permafrost can have positive and negative influences on thermal regimes. The net effect of northern environmental change on stream temperature is complex and uncertain, but permafrost will likely play a role through its control on cold region hydrology.
Jorrit P. Mesman, Inmaculada C. Jiménez-Navarro, Ana I. Ayala, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Dennis Trolle, and Don C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1791–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Spring events in lakes are key processes for ecosystem functioning. We used a coupled catchment–lake model to investigate future changes in the timing of spring discharge, ice-off, spring phytoplankton peak, and onset of stratification in a mesotrophic lake. We found a clear trend towards earlier occurrence under climate warming but also that relative shifts in the timing occurred, such as onset of stratification advancing more slowly than the other events.
Fernando Aristizabal, Taher Chegini, Gregory Petrochenkov, Fernando Salas, and Jasmeet Judge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1287–1315, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1287-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods are significant natural disasters that affect people and property. This study uses a simplified terrain index and the latest lidar-derived digital elevation maps (DEMs) to investigate flood inundation extent quality. We examined inundation quality influenced by different spatial resolutions and other variables. Results showed that lidar DEMs enhance inundation quality, but their resolution is less impactful in our context. Further studies on reservoirs and urban flooding are recommended.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Donghui Xu, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3911–3934, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3911-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the flood risks concurrently induced by river flooding and coastal storm surge along the coast of the contiguous United States using statistical and numerical models. We reveal a few hotspots of such risks, the critical spatial variabilities within a river basin and over the whole US coast, and the uncertainties of the risk assessment. We highlight the importance of weighing different risk measures to avoid underestimating or exaggerating the compound flood impacts.
Erin Towler, Sydney S. Foks, Aubrey L. Dugger, Jesse E. Dickinson, Hedeff I. Essaid, David Gochis, Roland J. Viger, and Yongxin Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1809–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrologic models developed to assess water availability need to be systematically evaluated. This study evaluates the long-term performance of two high-resolution hydrologic models that simulate streamflow across the contiguous United States. Both models show similar performance overall and regionally, with better performance in minimally disturbed basins than in those impacted by human activity. At about 80 % of the sites, both models outperform the seasonal climatological benchmark.
François Clayer, Leah Jackson-Blake, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Muhammed Shikhani, Andrew French, Tadhg Moore, James Sample, Magnus Norling, Maria-Dolores Frias, Sixto Herrera, Elvira de Eyto, Eleanor Jennings, Karsten Rinke, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1361–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the predictive skill of forecasting tools over the next season for water discharge and lake temperature. Tools were forced with seasonal weather predictions; however, most of the prediction skill originates from legacy effects and not from seasonal weather predictions. Yet, when skills from seasonal weather predictions are present, additional skill comes from interaction effects. Skilful lake seasonal predictions require better weather predictions and realistic antecedent conditions.
Olivia Desgué-Itier, Laura Melo Vieira Soares, Orlane Anneville, Damien Bouffard, Vincent Chanudet, Pierre Alain Danis, Isabelle Domaizon, Jean Guillard, Théo Mazure, Najwa Sharaf, Frédéric Soulignac, Viet Tran-Khac, Brigitte Vinçon-Leite, and Jean-Philippe Jenny
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 837–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-837-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The long-term effects of climate change will include an increase in lake surface and deep water temperatures. Incorporating up to 6 decades of limnological monitoring into an improved 1D lake model approach allows us to predict the thermal regime and oxygen solubility in four peri-alpine lakes over the period 1850–2100. Our modeling approach includes a revised selection of forcing variables and provides a way to investigate the impacts of climate variations on lakes for centennial timescales.
Enrico Bonanno, Günter Blöschl, and Julian Klaus
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6003–6028, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6003-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6003-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is an unclear understanding of which processes regulate the transport of water, solutes, and pollutants in streams. This is crucial since these processes control water quality in river networks. Compared to other approaches, we obtained clearer insights into the processes controlling solute transport in the investigated reach. This work highlights the risks of using uncertain results for interpreting the processes controlling water movement in streams.
Jingshui Huang, Dietrich Borchardt, and Michael Rode
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5817–5833, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5817-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5817-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we set up a water quality model using a 5-year paired high-frequency water quality dataset from a large agricultural stream. The simulations were compared with the 15 min interval measurements and showed very good fits. Based on these, we quantified the N uptake pathway rates and efficiencies at daily, seasonal, and yearly scales. This study offers an overarching understanding of N processing in large agricultural streams across different temporal scales.
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Sigrid Haande, James E. Sample, and S. Jannicke Moe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3103–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a Gaussian Bayesian network (GBN) for seasonal forecasting of lake water quality and algal bloom risk in a nutrient-impacted lake in southern Norway. Bayesian networks are powerful tools for environmental modelling but are almost exclusively discrete. We demonstrate that a continuous GBN is a promising alternative approach. Predictive performance of the GBN was similar or improved compared to a discrete network, and it was substantially less time-consuming and subjective to develop.
Timothy J. Maguire, Craig A. Stow, and Casey M. Godwin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1993–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Water within large water bodies is constantly moving. Consequently, water movement masks causal relationships that exist between rivers and lakes. Incorporating water movement into models of nutrient concentration allows us to predict concentrations at unobserved locations and at observed locations on days not sampled. Our modeling approach does this while accommodating nutrient concentration data from multiple sources and provides a way to experimentally define the impact of rivers on lakes.
Adrien Michel, Bettina Schaefli, Nander Wever, Harry Zekollari, Michael Lehning, and Hendrik Huwald
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1063–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents an extensive study of climate change impacts on river temperature in Switzerland. Results show that, even for low-emission scenarios, water temperature increase will lead to adverse effects for both ecosystems and socio-economic sectors throughout the 21st century. For high-emission scenarios, the effect will worsen. This study also shows that water seasonal warming will be different between the Alpine regions and the lowlands. Finally, efficiency of models is assessed.
Md Feroz Islam, Paul P. Schot, Stefan C. Dekker, Jasper Griffioen, and Hans Middelkoop
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 903–921, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-903-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-903-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The potential of sedimentation in the lowest parts of polders (beels) through controlled flooding with dike breach (tidal river management – TRM) to counterbalance relative sea level rise (RSLR) in 234 beels of SW Bangladesh is determined in this study, using 2D models and multiple regression. Lower beels located closer to the sea have the highest potential. Operating TRM only during the monsoon season is sufficient to raise the land surface of most beels by more than 3 times the yearly RSLR.
Sam Anderson and Valentina Radić
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 795–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop and interpret a spatiotemporal deep learning model for regional streamflow prediction at more than 200 stream gauge stations in western Canada. We find the novel modelling style to work very well for daily streamflow prediction. Importantly, we interpret model learning to show that it has learned to focus on physically interpretable and physically relevant information, which is a highly desirable quality of machine-learning-based hydrological models.
Danlu Guo, Camille Minaudo, Anna Lintern, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Shuci Liu, Kefeng Zhang, and Clément Duvert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of baseflow contribution on concentration–flow (C–Q) relationships across the Australian continent. We developed a novel Bayesian hierarchical model for six water quality variables across 157 catchments that span five climate zones. For sediments and nutrients, the C–Q slope is generally steeper for catchments with a higher median and a greater variability of baseflow contribution, highlighting the key role of variable flow pathways in particulate and solute export.
Liguang Jiang, Silja Westphal Christensen, and Peter Bauer-Gottwein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6359–6379, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6359-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6359-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
River roughness and geometry are essential to hydraulic river models. However, measurements of these quantities are not available in most rivers globally. Nevertheless, simultaneous calibration of channel geometric parameters and roughness is difficult as they compensate for each other. This study introduces an alternative approach of parameterization and calibration that reduces parameter correlations by combining cross-section geometry and roughness into a conveyance parameter.
Masoud Zaerpour, Shadi Hatami, Javad Sadri, and Ali Nazemi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5193–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5193-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5193-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow regimes are changing globally particularly in cold regions. We develop a novel algorithm for detecting shifting streamflow regimes using changes in first and second moments of ensemble streamflow features. This algorithm is generic and can be used globally. To showcase its application, we assess alterations in Canadian natural streams from 1966 to 2010 to provide the first temporally consistent, pan-Canadian assessment of change in natural streamflow regimes, coast to coast to coast.
Samuel J. Sutanto and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3991–4023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the differences within streamflow droughts derived using different identification approaches, namely the variable threshold, fixed threshold, and the Standardized Streamflow Index, including an analysis of both historical drought and implications for forecasting. Our results clearly show that streamflow droughts derived from different approaches deviate from each other in terms of drought occurrence, timing, duration, and deficit volume.
Janie Masse-Dufresne, Florent Barbecot, Paul Baudron, and John Gibson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3731–3757, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A volume-dependent transient isotopic mass balance model was developed for an artificial lake in Canada, in a context where direct measurements of surface water fluxes are difficult. It revealed that floodwater inputs affected the dynamics of the lake in spring but also significantly influenced the long-term water balance due to temporary subsurface storage of floodwater. Such models are paramount for understanding the vulnerability of lakes to changes in groundwater quantity and quality.
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3577–3594, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses changes in magnitude, frequency, and seasonality of moderate low and high flows for 93 catchments in Switzerland. In lower-lying catchments (below 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will decrease (increase). In Alpine catchments (above 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will increase (decrease). Moderate high flows tend to occur more frequent, and their magnitude increases in most catchments except some Alpine catchments.
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3071–3086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff regimes in Switzerland will change significantly under climate change. Projected changes are strongly elevation dependent with earlier time of emergence and stronger changes in high-elevation catchments where snowmelt and glacier melt play an important role. The magnitude of change and the climate model agreement on the sign increase with increasing global mean temperatures and stronger emission scenarios. This amplification highlights the importance of climate change mitigation.
Moritz Feigl, Katharina Lebiedzinski, Mathew Herrnegger, and Karsten Schulz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2951–2977, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2951-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we developed machine learning approaches for daily river water temperature prediction, using different data preprocessing methods, six model types, a range of different data inputs and 10 study catchments. By comparing to current state-of-the-art models, we could show a significant improvement of prediction performance of the tested approaches. Furthermore, we could gain insight into the relationships between model types, input data and predicted stream water temperature.
Cintia L. Ramón, Hugo N. Ulloa, Tomy Doda, Kraig B. Winters, and Damien Bouffard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1813–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1813-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1813-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
When solar radiation penetrates the frozen surface of lakes, shallower zones underneath warm faster than deep interior waters. This numerical study shows that the transport of excess heat to the lake interior depends on the lake circulation, affected by Earth's rotation, and controls the lake warming rates and the spatial distribution of the heat flux across the ice–water interface. This work contributes to the understanding of the circulation and thermal structure patterns of ice-covered lakes.
Robert Ladwig, Paul C. Hanson, Hilary A. Dugan, Cayelan C. Carey, Yu Zhang, Lele Shu, Christopher J. Duffy, and Kelly M. Cobourn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1009–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1009-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1009-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using a modeling framework applied to 37 years of dissolved oxygen time series data from Lake Mendota, we identified the timing and intensity of thermal energy stored in the lake water column, the lake's resilience to mixing, and surface primary production as the most important drivers of interannual dynamics of low oxygen concentrations at the lake bottom. Due to climate change, we expect an increase in the spatial and temporal extent of low oxygen concentrations in Lake Mendota.
Carlos Miranda Rodrigues, Madalena Moreira, Rita Cabral Guimarães, and Miguel Potes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5973–5984, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5973-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5973-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In Mediterranean environments, evaporation is a key component of reservoir water budgets. Prediction of surface evaporation becomes crucial for adequate reservoir water management. This study provides an applicable method for calculating evaporation based on pan measurements applied at Alqueva Reservoir (southern Portugal), one of the largest artificial lakes in Europe. Moreover, the methodology presented here could be applied to other Mediterranean reservoirs.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Gustavo Naumann, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Bernard Bisselink, Emiliano Gelati, Ad De Roo, and Luc Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5919–5935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5919-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5919-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is anticipated to alter the demand and supply of water at the earth's surface. This study shows how hydrological droughts will change across Europe with increasing global warming levels, showing that at 3 K global warming an additional 11 million people and 4.5 ×106 ha of agricultural land will be exposed to droughts every year, on average. These effects are mostly located in the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions of Europe.
Alex Zavarsky and Lars Duester
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5027–5041, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5027-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5027-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
River water temperature is an important parameter for water quality and an important variable for physical, chemical and biological processes. River water is also used as a cooling agent by power plants and production facilities. We study long-term trends in river water temperature and correlate them to meteorological influences and power production or economic indices.
Cheng-Wei Yu, Ben R. Hodges, and Frank Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4001–4024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4001-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4001-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the effects of bottom slope discontinuity on the stability of numerical solutions for the Saint-Venant equations. A new reference slope concept is proposed to ensure smooth source terms and eliminate potential numerical oscillations. It is shown that a simple algebraic transformation of channel geometry provides a smooth reference slope while preserving the correct cross-sectional flow area and the piezometric pressure gradient that drives the flow.
Ana I. Ayala, Simone Moras, and Donald C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of different levels of global warming on the thermal structure of Lake Erken are assessed. We used the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) to simulate water temperature driven by meteorological scenarios supplied by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) and tested its ability at different frequencies. Then, daily ISIMIP meteorological scenarios were disaggregated and assessed for the effects of climate change on lake thermal structure.
Luca Ziliani, Nicola Surian, Gianluca Botter, and Luca Mao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3229–3250, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3229-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3229-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Although geomorphic recovery is a key issue in many rivers worldwide, controlled floods have been rarely designed using geomorphological criteria. An integrated approach is used to assess the effects of different controlled-flood scenarios in a strongly regulated river. None of the controlled-flood strategies provide significant morphological benefits. Nevertheless, this study represents a significant contribution for the management and restoration of highly disturbed rivers.
Benjamin M. Kraemer, Anton Seimon, Rita Adrian, and Peter B. McIntyre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2593–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2593-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2593-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Lake levels go up and down due to natural variability in the climate. But the effects of natural variability on lake levels can sometimes be confused for the influence of humans. Here we used long-term data from 200 globally distributed lakes and an advanced statistical approach to show that the effects of natural variability on lake levels can be disentangled from other effects leading to better estimates of long-term changes that may be partially caused by humans.
Audrey Marescaux, Vincent Thieu, Nathalie Gypens, Marie Silvestre, and Josette Garnier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2379–2398, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2379-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Rivers have been recognized as an active part of the carbon cycle where transformations are associated with CO2 outgassing. To understand it, we propose a modeling approach with the biogeochemical model, pyNuts-Riverstrahler. We implemented it on the human-impacted Seine River. Sources of carbon to the river were characterized by field measurements in groundwater and in wastewater. Outgassing was the most important in streams, and peaks were simulated downstream of wastewater treatment effluent.
Danlu Guo, Anna Lintern, J. Angus Webb, Dongryeol Ryu, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Shuci Liu, and Andrew William Western
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 827–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-827-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-827-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed predictive models to represent the spatial and temporal variation of stream water quality across Victoria, Australia. The model structures were informed by a data-driven approach, which identified the key controls of water quality variations from long-term records. These models are helpful to identify likely future changes in water quality and, in turn, provide critical information for developing management strategies to improve stream water quality.
Vo Quoc Thanh, Dano Roelvink, Mick van der Wegen, Johan Reyns, Herman Kernkamp, Giap Van Vinh, and Vo Thi Phuong Linh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 189–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-189-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-189-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is a rice bowl of not only Vietnam, but also the world; agriculture is the main source of livelihood in the delta. The VMD is facing threats related to water management and hydraulic structures. Dykes are built to protect agricultural crops in the floodplains and may influence water regimes downstream in the VMD. If the VMD floodplains are completely protected by dykes, yearly mean water levels could increase by 3 cm (at Can Tho) and 1.5 cm (at My Thuan).
Martin Mergili, Shiva P. Pudasaini, Adam Emmer, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Alejo Cochachin, and Holger Frey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In 1941, the glacial lagoon Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) drained suddenly. The resulting outburst flood/debris flow consumed another lake and had a disastrous impact on the town of Huaraz 23 km downstream. We reconstuct this event through a numerical model to learn about the possibility of prediction of similar processes in the future. Remaining challenges consist of the complex process interactions and the lack of experience due to the rare occurrence of such process chains.
Simone Moras, Ana I. Ayala, and Don C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5001–5016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5001-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5001-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We used a hydrodynamic model to reconstruct daily historical water temperature of Lake Erken (Sweden) between 1961 and 2017 to demonstrate the ongoing effect of climate change on lake thermal conditions. The results show that the lake has warmed most rapidly in the last 30 years and that it is now subject to a longer and more stable stratification. The methods used here to reconstruct historical water temperature records can be easily extended to other lakes.
Qunhui Zhang, Jiming Jin, Xiaochun Wang, Phaedra Budy, Nick Barrett, and Sarah E. Null
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4969–4982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4969-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4969-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We improved lake mixing process simulations by applying a vertical mixing scheme, K profile parameterization (KPP), in the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5, developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The current vertical mixing scheme in CLM requires an arbitrarily enlarged eddy diffusivity to enhance water mixing. The coupled CLM-KPP considers a boundary layer for eddy development. The improved lake model provides an important tool for lake hydrology and ecosystem studies.
Margarita Choulga, Ekaterina Kourzeneva, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, and Nils Wedi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4051–4076, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4051-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4051-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes influence weather and climate of regions, especially if several of them are located close by. Just by using upgraded lake depths, based on new or more recent measurements and geological methods of depth estimation, errors of lake surface water forecasts produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts became 12–20 % lower compared with observations for 27 lakes collected by the Finnish Environment Institute. For ice-off date forecasts errors changed insignificantly.
Jérémy Lepesqueur, Renaud Hostache, Núria Martínez-Carreras, Emmanuelle Montargès-Pelletier, and Christophe Hissler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3901–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3901-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3901-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This article evaluates the influence of sediment representation in a sediment transport model. A short-term simulation is used to assess how far changing the sediment characteristics in the modelling experiment changes riverbed evolution and sediment redistribution during a small flood event. The study shows in particular that representing sediment with extended grain-size and grain-density distributions allows for improving model accuracy and performances.
Annie Visser-Quinn, Lindsay Beevers, and Sandhya Patidar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3279–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3279-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3279-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The ecological impact of changes in river flow may be explored through the simulation of ecologically relevant flow indicators. Traditional approaches to model parameterization are not well-suited for this. To this end, this paper considers the ability of a
modified covariance approach, applied to five hydrologically diverse catchments. An overall improvement in consistency is observed, whilst timing and rate of change represent the best and worst replicated indicators respectively.
Jeffrey J. Richardson, Christian E. Torgersen, and L. Monika Moskal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2813–2822, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2813-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2813-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
High stream temperatures can be detrimental to the survival of aquatic species such as endangered salmon. Stream temperatures can be reduced by shade provided by trees in riparian areas. Two lidar-based methods were effective at assessing stream shading. These methods can be used in place of expensive field measurements.
Cited articles
Alifujiang, Y., Abuduwaili, J., Ma, L., Samat, A., and Groll, M.: System Dynamics Modeling of Water Level Variations of Lake Issyk-Kul, Kyrgyzstan, Water-Sui, 9, 989, https://doi.org/10.3390/w9120989, 2017.
Altunkaynak, A.: Forecasting Surface Water Level Fluctuations of Lake Van by Artificial Neural Networks, Water Resour. Manag., 21, 399–408, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9022-6, 2007.
Arhonditsis, G. B., Neumann, A., Shimoda, Y., Kim, D.-K., Dong, F., Onandia, G., Yang, C., Javed, A., Brady, M., Visha, A., Ni, F., and Cheng, V.: Castles built on sand or predictive limnology in action? Part A: Evaluation of an integrated modelling framework to guide adaptive management implementation in Lake Erie, Ecol. Inform., 53, 100968, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2019.05.014, 2019.
Bart, F., Schmidt, B., Wang, X., Holtmann, A., Meier, F., Otto, M., and Scherer, D.: CER v2 dataset, TU Berlin [data set], https://www.tu.berlin/en/klima/research/regional-climatology/central-europe/cer (last access: 1 November 2023), 2023.
Beletsky, D., Hawley, N., and Rao, Y. R.: Modeling summer circulation and thermal structure of Lake Erie, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 6238–6252, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC008854, 2013.
Clarke, R. T.: A review of some mathematical models used in hydrology, with observations on their calibration and use, J. Hydrol., 19, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(73)90089-9, 1973.
Crapper, P. F., Fleming, P. M., and Kalma, J. D.: Prediction of lake levels using water balance models, Environ. Softw., 11, 251–258, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0266-9838(96)00018-4, 1996.
Dehghanipour, A. H., Zahabiyoun, B., Schoups, G., and Babazadeh, H.: A WEAP-MODFLOW surface water-groundwater model for the irrigated Miyandoab plain, Urmia lake basin, Iran: Multi-objective calibration and quantification of historical drought impacts, Agr. Water Manage., 223, 105704, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2019.105704, 2019.
Demir, V. and Yaseen, Z. M.: Neurocomputing intelligence models for lakes water level forecasting: a comprehensive review, Neural Comput. Appl., 35, 303–343, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-022-07699-z, 2023.
Döllefeld, M., Haag, L., and Welsch, J.: Umweltatlas Berlin – planungsrelevante Umweltdaten für Berlin, ZfV – Zeitschrift für Geodäsie, Geoinformation und Landmanagement, 2, 138–143, https://doi.org/10.12902/zfv-0341-2021, 2021.
DWD: Klimareport Brandenburg. 1. Auflage; Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main, Deutschland, 40 pp., ISBN 978-3-88148-518-0, 2019.
Ebtehaj, I., Bonakdari, H., and Gharabaghi, B.: A reliable linear method for modeling lake level fluctuations, J. Hydrol., 570, 236–250, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.01.010, 2019.
Elshorbagy, A., Corzo, G., Srinivasulu, S., and Solomatine, D. P.: Experimental investigation of the predictive capabilities of data driven modeling techniques in hydrology – Part 1: Concepts and methodology, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1931–1941, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1931-2010, 2010a.
Elshorbagy, A., Corzo, G., Srinivasulu, S., and Solomatine, D. P.: Experimental investigation of the predictive capabilities of data driven modeling techniques in hydrology – Part 2: Application, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1943–1961, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1943-2010, 2010b.
Geoportal Brandenburg – Detailansichtdienst: https://geoportal.brandenburg.de/detailansichtdienst/render?url=https://geoportal.brandenburg.de/gs-json/xml?fileid=A140C263-7D61-447B-81C2-8824792AE190, last access: 29 April 2024.
Getachew, B., Manjunatha, B. R., and Bhat, H. G.: Modeling projected impacts of climate and land use/land cover changes on hydrological responses in the Lake Tana Basin, upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia, J. Hydrol., 595, 125974, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.125974, 2021.
Ghashghaie, M. and Nozari, H.: Effect of Dam Construction on Lake Urmia: Time Series Analysis of Water Level via ARIMA, J. Agric. Sci. Technol., 20, 1541–1553, 2018.
Gong, Y., Liu, G., and Schwartz, F.: Quantifying the Response Time of a Lake–Groundwater Interacting System to Climatic Perturbation, Water-Sui, 7, 6598–6615, https://doi.org/10.3390/w7116598, 2015.
Habel, M., Nowak, B., and Szadek, P.: Evaluating indicators of hydrologic alteration to demonstrate the impact of open-pit lignite mining on the flow regimes of small and medium-sized rivers, Ecol. Indic., 157, 111295, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.111295, 2023.
Haacke, N., Frick, M., Scheck-Wenderoth, M., Schneider, M., and Cacace, M.: 3-D Simulations of Groundwater Utilization in an Urban Catchment of Berlin, Germany, Adv. Geosci., 45, 177–184, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-45-177-2018, 2018.
Hassanzadeh, E., Zarghami, M., and Hassanzadeh, Y.: Determining the Main Factors in Declining the Urmia Lake Level by Using System Dynamics Modeling, Water Resour. Manag., 26, 129–145, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-011-9909-8, 2012.
Heinrich, L., Dietel, J., and Hupfer, M.: Sulphate reduction determines the long-term effect of iron amendments on phosphorus retention in lake sediments, J. Soil. Sediment., 22, 316–333, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11368-021-03099-3, 2022.
Heuvelmans, G., Muys, B., and Feyen, J.: Regionalisation of the parameters of a hydrological model: Comparison of linear regression models with artificial neural nets, J. Hydrol., 319, 245–265, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.030, 2006.
Hrachowitz, M. and Clark, M. P.: HESS Opinions: The complementary merits of competing modelling philosophies in hydrology, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3953–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3953-2017, 2017.
Irvine, K. N. and Eberhardt, A. J.: Multiplicative, Seasonal Arima Models for Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Water Levels, JAWRA J. Am. Water Resour. As., 28, 385–396, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1992.tb04004.x, 1992.
Jahn, D. and Witt, H.: Gewässeratlas von Berlin: Senatsverwaltung für Standentwicklung, UNICOM, Berlin, https://www.berlin.de/sen/uvk/_assets/umwelt/wasser-und-geologie/publikationen-und-merkblaetter/wasseratlas.pdf (last access: 12 September 2024), 2002.
Jänicke, B., Meier, F., Fenner, D., Fehrenbach, U., Holtmann, A., and Scherer, D.: Urban-rural differences in near-surface air temperature as resolved by the Central Europe Refined analysis (CER): sensitivity to planetary boundary layer schemes and urban canopy models, Int. J. Climatol., 37, 2063–2079, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4835, 2017.
Kakahaji, H., Banadaki, H. D., Kakahaji, A., and Kakahaji, A.: Prediction of Urmia Lake Water-Level Fluctuations by Using Analytical, Linear Statistic and Intelligent Methods, Water Resour. Manag., 27, 4469–4492, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0420-2, 2013.
Kebede, S., Travi, Y., Alemayehu, T., and Marc, V.: Water balance of Lake Tana and its sensitivity to fluctuations in rainfall, Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia, J. Hydrol., 316, 233–247, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.05.011, 2006.
Kisi, O., Shiri, J., and Nikoofar, B.: Forecasting daily lake levels using artificial intelligence approaches, Comput. Geosci., 41, 169–180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2011.08.027, 2012.
Kleeberg, A., Köhler, A., and Hupfer, M.: How effectively does a single or continuous iron supply affect the phosphorus budget of aerated lakes?, J. Soil. Sediment., 12, 1593–1603, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11368-012-0590-1, 2012.
Klotz, D., Kratzert, F., Gauch, M., Keefe Sampson, A., Brandstetter, J., Klambauer, G., Hochreiter, S., and Nearing, G.: Uncertainty estimation with deep learning for rainfall–runoff modeling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1673–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1673-2022, 2022.
Kratzert, F., Klotz, D., Shalev, G., Klambauer, G., Hochreiter, S., and Nearing, G.: Towards learning universal, regional, and local hydrological behaviors via machine learning applied to large-sample datasets, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5089–5110, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5089-2019, 2019.
Kroll, C. N. and Song, P.: Impact of multicollinearity on small sample hydrologic regression models, Water Res., 49, 3756–3769, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20315, 2013.
Langbein, W. B.: Salinity and hydrology of closed lakes: A study of the long-term balance between input and loss of salts in closed lakes, 412, US Government Print. Office, https://doi.org/10.3133/pp412, 1961.
Laval, B., Imberger, J., Hodges, B. R., and Stocker, R.: Modeling circulation in lakes: Spatial and temporal variations, Limnol. Oceanogr., 48, 983–994, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2003.48.3.0983, 2003.
Li, J., Wang, Z., Wu, X., Xu, C.-Y., Guo, S., Chen, X., and Zhang, Z.: Robust Meteorological Drought Prediction Using Antecedent SST Fluctuations and Machine Learning, Water Res., 57, e2020WR029413, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029413, 2021.
Liese, M., Nagare, R., and Voigt, H.-J.: 12 Jahre Pilotbetrieb Karolinenhöhe – eine erste Auswertung. Kompetenzzentrum Wasser Berlin gGmbH, https://www.kompetenz-wasser.de/media/pages/forschung/publikationen/44/efe477f2f4-1702634137/Liese-2004-44.pdf (last access: 17 September 2024), ISBN 978-3-9811684-2-6, 2004.
Lischeid, G.: Abschätzung des mittelfristigen Niedrigwasserrisikos anhand der Daten des Grundwassermonitorings, KW Korrespondenz Wasserwirtschaft, 12, 780–785, https://doi.org/10.3243/kwe2021.12.004, 2021.
Lischeid, G., Dannowski, R., Kaiser, K., Nützmann, G., Steidl, J., and Stüve, P.: Inconsistent hydrological trends do not necessarily imply spatially heterogeneous drivers, J. Hydrol., 596, 126096, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126096, 2021.
Lu, C., He, X., Zhang, B., Wang, J., Kidmose, J., and Jarsjö, J.: Comparison of Numerical Methods in Simulating Lake–Groundwater Interactions: Lake Hampen, Western Denmark, Water-Sui, 14, 3054, https://doi.org/10.3390/w14193054, 2022.
Mason, I. M., Guzkowska, M. A. J., Rapley, C. G., and Street-Perrott, F. A.: The response of lake levels and areas to climatic change, Climatic Change, 27, 161–197, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01093590, 1994.
Maussion, F., Scherer, D., Mölg, T., Collier, E., Curio, J., and Finkelnburg, R.: Precipitation Seasonality and Variability over the Tibetan Plateau as Resolved by the High Asia Reanalysis, J. Climate, 27, 1910–1927, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00282.1, 2014.
McGovern, A., Lagerquist, R., Gagne, D. J., Jergensen, G. E., Elmore, K. L., Homeyer, C. R., and Smith, T.: Making the Black Box More Transparent: Understanding the Physical Implications of Machine Learning, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, 2175–2199, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0195.1, 2019.
Montanari, A., Rosso, R., and Taqqu, M. S.: Fractionally differenced ARIMA models applied to hydrologic time series: Identification, estimation, and simulation, Water Res., 33, 1035–1044, https://doi.org/10.1029/97WR00043, 1997.
Oyebode, O. and Stretch, D.: Neural network modeling of hydrological systems: A review of implementation techniques, Nat. Resour. Model., 32, e12189, https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12189, 2019.
Páliz Larrea, P., Zapata-Ríos, X., and Campozano Parra, L.: Application of Neural Network Models and ANFIS for Water Level Forecasting of the Salve Faccha Dam in the Andean Zone in Northern Ecuador, Water-Sui, 13, 2011, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13152011, 2021.
Pedregosa, F., Varoquaux, G., Gramfort, A., Michel, V., Thirion, B., Grisel, O., Blondel, M., Prettenhofer, P., Weiss, R., Dubourg, V., Vanderplas, J., Passos, A., Cournapeau, D., Brucher, M., Perrot, M., and Duchesnay, E.: Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python, J. Mach. Learn. Res., 12, 2825–2830, 2011.
Pflugmacher, D., Rabe, A., Peters, M., and Hostert, P.: Mapping pan-European land cover using Landsat spectral-temporal metrics and the European LUCAS survey, Remote Sens. Environ., 221, 583–595, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.12.001, 2019.
Sahoo, B. B., Jha, R., Singh, A., and Kumar, D.: Long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network for low-flow hydrological time series forecasting, Acta Geophys., 67, 1471–1481, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-019-00330-1, 2019.
Sahoo, S. and Jha, M. K.: Groundwater-level prediction using multiple linear regression and artificial neural network techniques: a comparative assessment, Hydrogeol. J., 21, 1865–1887, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-013-1029-5, 2013.
Schleich, J. and Hillenbrand, T.: Determinants of residential water demand in Germany, Ecol. Econ., 68, 1756–1769, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.11.012, 2009.
Schulz, S., Darehshouri, S., Hassanzadeh, E., Tajrishy, M., and Schüth, C.: Climate change or irrigated agriculture – what drives the water level decline of Lake Urmia, Sci. Rep.-UK, 10, 236, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-57150-y, 2020.
Seeboonruang, U.: An application of time-lag regression technique for assessment of groundwater fluctuations in a regulated river basin: a case study in Northeastern Thailand, Environ. Earth Sci., 73, 6511–6523, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-014-3872-7, 2015.
Şen, Z., Kadioğlu, M., and Batur, E.: Stochastic Modeling of the Van Lake Monthly Level Fluctuations in Turkey, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 65, 99–110, https://doi.org/10.1007/s007040050007, 2000.
SenUVK: Wasserportal Berlin, SenUVK Berlin [data set], https://wasserportal.berlin.de/stationen_start.php (last access: 13 September 2024), 2023.
Sivapalan, M. and Young, P. C.: Downward Approach to Hydrological Model Development, in: Encyclopedia of hydrological sciences, edited by: Anderson, M. G., Wiley, Chichester, https://doi.org/10.1002/0470848944.hsa141, 2005.
Sivapalan, M., Blöschl, G., Zhang, L., and Vertessy, R.: Downward approach to hydrological prediction, Hydrol. Process., 17, 2101–2111, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1425, 2003.
Solomatine, D. P. and Ostfeld, A.: Data-driven modelling: some past experiences and new approaches, J. Hydroinform., 10, 3–22, https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2008.015, 2008.
Souza, F. A., Araújo, R., and Mendes, J.: Review of soft sensor methods for regression applications, Chemometr. Intell. Lab., 152, 69–79, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemolab.2015.12.011, 2016.
Tasker, G. D.: Hydrologic regression with weighted least squares, Water Res., 16, 1107–1113, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR016i006p01107, 1980.
Umweltbundesamt: Sewage sludge disposal in Germany, https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/sewage-sludge-disposal-in-germany, last access: 31 May 2023.
Valipour, R., Fong, P., McCrimmon, C., Zhao, J., van Stempvoort, D. R., and Rao, Y. R.: Hydrodynamics of a large lake with complex geometry and topography: Lake of the Woods, J. Great Lakes Res., 49, 82–96, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2022.09.009, 2023.
Wang, X., Tolksdorf, V., Otto, M., and Scherer, D.: WRF-based dynamical downscaling of ERA5 reanalysis data for High Mountain Asia: Towards a new version of the High Asia Refined analysis, Int. J. Climatol., 41, 743–762, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6686, 2021.
Wolter, K.-D.: Restoration of Eutrophic Lakes by Phosphorus Precipitation, with a Case Study on Lake Gross-Glienicker, in: Restoration of Lakes, Streams, Floodplains, and Bogs in Europe, Springer, Dordrecht, 85–99, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9265-6_7, 2010.
Woolway, R. I., Kraemer, B. M., Lenters, J. D., Merchant, C. J., O'Reilly, C. M., and Sharma, S.: Global lake responses to climate change, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 1, 388–403, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0067-5, 2020.
Xu, C.-Y. and Singh, V. P.: A Review on Monthly Water Balance Models for Water Resources Investigations, Water Resour. Manag., 12, 20–50, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007916816469, 1998.
Zhu, S., Hrnjica, B., Ptak, M., Choiński, A., and Sivakumar, B.: Forecasting of water level in multiple temperate lakes using machine learning models, J. Hydrol., 585, 124819, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124819, 2020a.
Zhu, S., Lu, H., Ptak, M., Dai, J., and Ji, Q.: Lake water-level fluctuation forecasting using machine learning models: a systematic review, Environ. Sci. Pollut. R., 27, 44807–44819, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-10917-7, 2020b.
Short summary
We study the drivers behind the changes in lake levels, creating a series of models from least to most complex. In this study, we have shown that the decreasing levels of Groß Glienicker Lake in Germany are not simply the result of changes in climate but are affected by other processes. In our example, reduced inflow from a growing forest, regionally sinking groundwater levels and the modifications in the local rainwater infrastructure together resulted in an increasing lake level loss.
We study the drivers behind the changes in lake levels, creating a series of models from least...
