Articles | Volume 27, issue 4
Research article
23 Feb 2023
Research article |  | 23 Feb 2023

Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts

Richard Laugesen, Mark Thyer, David McInerney, and Dmitri Kavetski

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Cited articles

Abaza, M., Anctil, F., Fortin, V., and Turcotte, R.: A Comparison of the Canadian Global and Regional Meteorological Ensemble Prediction Systems for Short-Term Hydrological Forecasting, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 3462–3476,, 2013. 
Anghileri, D., Monhart, S., Zhou, C., Bogner, K., Castelletti, A., Burlando, P., and Zappa, M.: The Value of Subseasonal Hydrometeorological Forecasts to Hydropower Operations: How Much Does Preprocessing Matter?, Water Resour. Res., 55, 10159–10178,, 2019. 
An-Vo, D.-A., Mushtaq, S., Reardon-Smith, K., Kouadio, L., Attard, S., Cobon, D., and Stone, R.: Value of seasonal forecasting for sugarcane farm irrigation planning, Eur. J. Agron., 104, 37–48,, 2019. 
Babcock, B. A., Choi, E. K., and Feinerman, E.: Risk and probability premiums for CARA utility functions, J. Agricult. Resou. Econ., 18, 17–24,, 1993. 
Bennett, J. C., Robertson, D. E., Wang, Q. J., Li, M., and Perraud, J.-M.: Propagating reliable estimates of hydrological forecast uncertainty to many lead times, J. Hydrol., 603, 126798,, 2021. 
Short summary
Forecasts may be valuable for user decisions, but current practice to quantify it has critical limitations. This study introduces RUV (relative utility value, a new metric that can be tailored to specific decisions and decision-makers. It illustrates how critical this decision context is when evaluating forecast value. This study paves the way for agencies to tailor the evaluation of their services to customer decisions and researchers to study model improvements through the lens of user impact.