Articles | Volume 27, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts
Richard Laugesen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
Bureau of Meteorology, Canberra, ACT, Australia
Mark Thyer
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
David McInerney
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
Dmitri Kavetski
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
Related authors
Christopher A. Pickett-Heaps, Patrick Sunter, Wendy Sharples, Michael Pegios, Catherine Wilson, Alex Cornish, Richard Laugesen, and Elisabetta Carrara
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1379, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates seasonal forecast skill of river discharge from (1) a gridded hydrological model coupled with statistical post-processing and (2) a locally calibrated statistical hydrological model dependant on recent hydrological observations. Results indicate a similar level of forecast skill. The statistical post-processor is not dependant on recent observations to maintain forecast skill, a finding that will have a positive impact on operational hydrological forecasting.
David McInerney, Mark Thyer, Dmitri Kavetski, Richard Laugesen, Fitsum Woldemeskel, Narendra Tuteja, and George Kuczera
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5669–5683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5669-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5669-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow forecasts a day to a month ahead are highly valuable for water resources management. Current practice often develops forecasts for specific lead times and aggregation timescales. In contrast, a single, seamless forecast can serve multiple lead times/timescales. This study shows seamless forecasts can match the performance of forecasts developed specifically at the monthly scale, while maintaining quality at other lead times. Hence, users need not sacrifice capability for performance.
Xiaoyong Sophie Zhang, Gnanathikkam E. Amirthanathan, Mohammed A. Bari, Richard M. Laugesen, Daehyok Shin, David M. Kent, Andrew M. MacDonald, Margot E. Turner, and Narendra K. Tuteja
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3947–3965, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3947-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3947-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The hydrologic reference stations website (www.bom.gov.au/water/hrs/), developed by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology, is a one-stop portal to access long-term and high-quality streamflow information for 222 stations across Australia. This study investigated the streamflow variability and inferred trends in water availability for those stations. The results present a systematic analysis of recent hydrological changes in Australian rivers, which will aid water management decision making.
Christopher A. Pickett-Heaps, Patrick Sunter, Wendy Sharples, Michael Pegios, Catherine Wilson, Alex Cornish, Richard Laugesen, and Elisabetta Carrara
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1379, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates seasonal forecast skill of river discharge from (1) a gridded hydrological model coupled with statistical post-processing and (2) a locally calibrated statistical hydrological model dependant on recent hydrological observations. Results indicate a similar level of forecast skill. The statistical post-processor is not dependant on recent observations to maintain forecast skill, a finding that will have a positive impact on operational hydrological forecasting.
David McInerney, Mark Thyer, Dmitri Kavetski, Richard Laugesen, Fitsum Woldemeskel, Narendra Tuteja, and George Kuczera
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5669–5683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5669-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5669-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow forecasts a day to a month ahead are highly valuable for water resources management. Current practice often develops forecasts for specific lead times and aggregation timescales. In contrast, a single, seamless forecast can serve multiple lead times/timescales. This study shows seamless forecasts can match the performance of forecasts developed specifically at the monthly scale, while maintaining quality at other lead times. Hence, users need not sacrifice capability for performance.
Marco Dal Molin, Dmitri Kavetski, and Fabrizio Fenicia
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7047–7072, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7047-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7047-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces SuperflexPy, an open-source Python framework for building flexible conceptual hydrological models. SuperflexPy is available as open-source code and can be used by the hydrological community to investigate improved process representations, for model comparison, and for operational work.
Bree Bennett, Mark Thyer, Michael Leonard, Martin Lambert, and Bryson Bates
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4783–4801, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4783-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A new stochastic rainfall model evaluation framework is introduced, with three key features: (1) streamflow-based, to directly evaluate modelled streamflow performance, (2) virtual, to avoid confounding errors in hydrological models or data, and (3) targeted, to isolate errors according to specific sites/months. The framework identified the importance of rainfall in the
wetting-upmonths for providing reliable predictions of streamflow over the entire year despite their low flow volumes.
Fitsum Woldemeskel, David McInerney, Julien Lerat, Mark Thyer, Dmitri Kavetski, Daehyok Shin, Narendra Tuteja, and George Kuczera
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6257–6278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6257-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6257-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates several schemes for post-processing monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's streamflow forecasting system. Through evaluation across 300 catchments, the best-performing scheme has been identified, which is found to substantially improve important aspects of the forecast quality. This finding is significant because the improved forecasts help water managers and users of the service to make better-informed decisions.
Matthew S. Gibbs, David McInerney, Greer Humphrey, Mark A. Thyer, Holger R. Maier, Graeme C. Dandy, and Dmitri Kavetski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 871–887, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-871-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-871-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This work developed models to predict how much water will be available in the next month to maximise environmental and social outcomes in southern Australia. Initialising the models with observed streamflow data, instead of warmed up by rainfall data, improved the results, even at a monthly lead time, making sure only data representative of the forecast period to develop the models were also important. If this step was ignored, and instead all data were used, poor predictions could be produced.
Xiaoyong Sophie Zhang, Gnanathikkam E. Amirthanathan, Mohammed A. Bari, Richard M. Laugesen, Daehyok Shin, David M. Kent, Andrew M. MacDonald, Margot E. Turner, and Narendra K. Tuteja
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3947–3965, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3947-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3947-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The hydrologic reference stations website (www.bom.gov.au/water/hrs/), developed by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology, is a one-stop portal to access long-term and high-quality streamflow information for 222 stations across Australia. This study investigated the streamflow variability and inferred trends in water availability for those stations. The results present a systematic analysis of recent hydrological changes in Australian rivers, which will aid water management decision making.
Whitney K. Huang, Michael L. Stein, David J. McInerney, Shanshan Sun, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 2, 79–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-79-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-79-2016, 2016
Related subject area
Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Can adaptations of crop and soil management prevent yield losses during water scarcity? A modeling study
Optimising ensemble streamflow predictions with bias correction and data assimilation techniques
Exploring the value of seasonal flow forecasts for drought management in South Korea
Evaluating an Earth system model from a water manager perspective
Creating a national urban flood dataset for China from news texts (2000–2022) at the county level
Thirsty Earth: A Game-Based Approach to Interdisciplinary Water Resources Education
Spatially explicit assessment of water stress and potential mitigating solutions in a large water-limited basin: the Yellow River basin in China
A scalable and modular reservoir implementation for large-scale integrated hydrologic simulations
The interprovincial green water flow in China and its teleconnected effects on the social economy
Impacts of Inter-basin Water Diversion Projects on the Feedback Loops of Water Supply-Hydropower Generation-Environment Conservation Nexus
Modeling hydropower operations at the scale of a power grid: a demand-based approach
Determining the threshold of issuing flash flood warnings based on people's response process simulation
Modeling water balance components of conifer species using the Noah-MP model in an eastern Mediterranean ecosystem
Data-Driven Scaling Methods for Soil Moisture Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensors
Assessment of upscaling methodologies for daily crop transpiration using sap flows and two-source energy balance models in almonds under different water statuses and production systems
Making a case for power-sensitive water modelling: a literature review
Developing water supply reservoir operating rules for large-scale hydrological modelling
An investigation of anthropogenic influences on hydrologic connectivity using model stress tests
A Multiagent Socio-hydrologic Framework for Integrated Green Infrastructures and Water Resource Management at Various Spatial Scales
The H2Ours game to explore water use, resources and sustainability: connecting issues in two landscapes in Indonesia
Drainage assessment of irrigation districts: on the precision and accuracy of four parsimonious models
The Value of Hydroclimatic Teleconnections for Snow-based Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting
Impact of reservoir evaporation on future water availability in north-eastern Brazil: a multi-scenario assessment
How economically and environmentally viable are multiple dams in the upper Cauvery Basin, India? A hydro-economic analysis using a landscape-based hydrological model
Is drought protection possible without compromising flood protection? Estimating the maximum dual-use benefit of small flood reservoirs in Southern Germany
Leveraging a novel hybrid ensemble and optimal interpolation approach for enhanced streamflow and flood prediction
A generalised ecohydrological landscape classification for assessing ecosystem risk in Australia due to an altering water regime
Process-based three-layer synergistic optimal-allocation model for complex water resource systems considering reclaimed water
Joint optimal operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project considering the evenness of water deficit
Employing the generalized Pareto distribution to analyze extreme rainfall events on consecutive rainy days in Thailand's Chi watershed: implications for flood management
How to account for irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model
Inferring reservoir filling strategies under limited-data-availability conditions using hydrological modeling and Earth observations: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
The precision of satellite-based net irrigation quantification in the Indus and Ganges basins
Developing a Bayesian network model for understanding river catchment resilience under future change scenarios
Quantifying the trade-offs in re-operating dams for the environment in the Lower Volta River
Dynamically coupling system dynamics and SWAT+ models using Tinamït: application of modular tools for coupled human–water system models
Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes
Cooperation in a transboundary river basin: a large-scale socio-hydrological model of the Eastern Nile
An improved model of shade-affected stream temperature in Soil & Water Assessment Tool
Seasonal forecasting of snow resources at Alpine sites
Operationalizing equity in multipurpose water systems
Evaluation of a new observationally based channel parameterization for the National Water Model
High-resolution drought simulations and comparison to soil moisture observations in Germany
Cooperation under conflict: participatory hydrological modeling for science policy dialogues for the Aculeo Lake
Socio-hydrological modeling of the tradeoff between flood control and hydropower provided by the Columbia River Treaty
Challenges and benefits of quantifying irrigation through the assimilation of Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into Noah-MP
A system dynamic model to quantify the impacts of water resources allocation on water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexus
Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe
The role of multi-criteria decision analysis in a transdisciplinary process: co-developing a flood forecasting system in western Africa
Unfolding the relationship between seasonal forecast skill and value in hydropower production: a global analysis
Malve Heinz, Maria Eliza Turek, Bettina Schaefli, Andreas Keiser, and Annelie Holzkämper
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1807–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1807-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1807-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Potato farmers in Switzerland are facing drier conditions and water restrictions. We explored how improving soil health and planting early-maturing potato varieties might help them to adapt. Using a computer model, we simulated potato yields and irrigation water needs under water scarcity. Our results show that earlier-maturing potato varieties reduce the reliance on irrigation but result in lower yields. However, improving soil health can significantly reduce yield losses.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Amulya Chevuturi, Eugene Magee, Elizabeth Cooper, Robert H. B. Johnson, Katie Facer-Childs, and Jamie Hannaford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1587–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1587-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1587-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research compares two techniques, bias correction (BC) and data assimilation (DA), for improving river flow forecasts across 316 UK catchments. BC, which corrects errors after simulation, showed broad improvements, while DA, adjusting model states before forecast, excelled under specific conditions like snowmelt and high baseflows. Each method's unique strengths suit different scenarios. These insights can enhance forecasting systems, offering reliable and user-friendly hydrological predictions.
Yongshin Lee, Andres Peñuela, Francesca Pianosi, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1429–1447, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the value of seasonal flow forecasts (SFFs) in informing decision-making for drought management in South Korea and introduces a novel method for assessing values benchmarked against historical operations. Our results showed the importance of considering flow forecast uncertainty in reservoir operations. There was no significant correlation between the forecast accuracy and value. The method for selecting a compromise release schedule was a key control of the value.
Mari R. Tye, Ming Ge, Jadwiga H. Richter, Ethan D. Gutmann, Allyson Rugg, Cindy L. Bruyère, Sue Ellen Haupt, Flavio Lehner, Rachel McCrary, Andrew J. Newman, and Andy Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1117–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1117-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
There is a perceived mismatch between the spatial scales on which global climate models can produce data and those needed for water management decisions. However, poor communication of specific metrics relevant to local decisions is also a problem. We assessed the credibility of a set of water management decision metrics in the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2). CESM2 shows potentially greater use of its output in long-range water management decisions.
Shengnan Fu, David M. Schultz, Heng Lyu, Zhonghua Zheng, and Chi Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 767–783, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-767-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-767-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We create China’s first open county-level urban flood dataset (2000–2022) using news media data with the help of deep learning. The dataset reflects both natural and societal influences and includes 7595 urban flood events across 2051 counties, covering 46 % of China’s land area. It reveals the predominance of summer floods, an upward trend since 2000, and a decline from southeast to northwest. Notably, some highly developed regions show a decrease, likely due to improved flood management.
Lauren McGiven, Kinsey Poland, Caleb Reinking, and Marc F. Müller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-330, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce Thirsty Earth, an educational game where students are farmers making irrigation decisions amid climate uncertainty, common-pool costs and resource constraints. The game is web-based and adapted for remote learning either as a light Google Sheets version and a full interactive graphical interface. It bridges technical water management with governance concepts from the social science, providing experiential interdisciplinary learning that traditional STEM curricula often overlook.
Weibin Zhang, Xining Zhao, Xuerui Gao, Wei Liang, Junyi Li, and Baoqing Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 507–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-507-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-507-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Yellow River basin shows worsening water stress indicators (WSIs) over 1965‒2020. Water withdrawal is the main factor driving WSI before 2000, balanced by water availability. Local water yield and upstream flows are key drivers of sub-basin water availability. Water demand is expected to rise by 6.5 % in the 2030s, creating an 8.36 km³ surface water deficit. Enhanced irrigation efficiency can cut this deficit by 25 %, maintaining the stress level but worsening it for 44.9% of the population.
Benjamin D. West, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 245–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-245-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-245-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes the addition of reservoirs to the hydrologic model ParFlow. ParFlow is particularly good at helping us understand some of the broader drivers behind different parts of the water cycle. By having reservoirs in such a model, we hope to be able to better understand both our impacts on the environment and how to adjust our management of reservoirs to changing conditions.
Shan Sang, Yan Li, Chengcheng Hou, Shuangshuang Zi, and Huiqing Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 67–84, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-67-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-67-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Green water exchanges between each province in China form an interconnected flow network and have substantial socioeconomic values. Green water flow and its teleconnected socioeconomic effects should be considered in water resource management in addition to blue water.
Jiaoyang Wang, Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Lihua Xiong, Pan Liu, Hua Chen, Jie Chen, Jiabo Yin, and Yuling Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-399, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-399, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
The unclear feedback loops of water supply-hydropower generation-environmental conservation (SHE) nexus with inter-basin water diversion projects (IWDPs) increase the uncertainty in the rational scheduling of water resources for the water receiving and water donation areas. To address the different impacts of IWDPs on the dynamic SHE nexus and explore collaborative states, a framework was proposed to identify these impacts across the multiple temporal and spatial scales in a reservoirs group.
Laure Baratgin, Jan Polcher, Patrice Dumas, and Philippe Quirion
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5479–5509, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modeling is valuable for estimating the potential impact of climate change on hydropower generation. This study presents a comprehensive approach to modeling the management of hydroelectric reservoirs in hydrological models. The total power grid demand for hydropower is distributed to the various power plants to compute their release. The method is tested on the French national power grid, and it is demonstrated that it successfully reproduces the observed behavior of reservoirs.
Ruikang Zhang, Dedi Liu, Lihua Xiong, Jie Chen, Hua Chen, and Jiabo Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5229–5247, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flash flood warnings cannot be effective without people’s responses to them. We propose a method to determine the threshold of issuing warnings based on a people’s response process simulation. The results show that adjusting the warning threshold according to people’s tolerance levels to the failed warnings can improve warning effectiveness, but the prerequisite is to increase forecasting accuracy and decrease forecasting variance.
Mohsen Amini Fasakhodi, Hakan Djuma, Ioannis Sofokleous, Marinos Eliades, and Adriana Bruggeman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5209–5227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5209-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5209-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examined the water use of pine and cypress trees in a semiarid Mediterranean forest environment. We applied a widely used land surface model (Noah-MP) to simulate the water balance of the ecosystem. We found good modeling results for soil moisture. However, the model underestimated the transpiration of the trees during the dry summer months. These findings indicate that more research is needed to improve the modeling of ecosystem responses to climate and land use change.
Roland Baatz, Patrick Davies, Paolo Nasta, and Heye Bogena
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3108, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a new method to improve soil moisture measurements from cosmic ray neutron sensors. Using advanced modeling, we account for changes in atmospheric pressure, air humidity, and cosmic ray intensity based on site and sensor characteristics. The results show that precise adjustments are needed to better measure soil moisture, supporting improved decisions in farming, water management, and climate monitoring.
Manuel Quintanilla-Albornoz, Xavier Miarnau, Ana Pelechá, Héctor Nieto, and Joaquim Bellvert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4797–4818, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4797-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4797-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Remote sensing can be a helpful tool for monitoring crop transpiration (T) for agricultural water management. Since remote sensing provides instantaneous data, upscaling techniques are required to estimate T on a daily scale. This study assesses optimal image acquisition times and four upscaling approaches to estimate daily T. The results indicate that the main errors derive from measurement time and water stress levels, which can be mitigated by choosing a proper upscaling approach.
Rozemarijn ter Horst, Rossella Alba, Jeroen Vos, Maria Rusca, Jonatan Godinez-Madrigal, Lucie V. Babel, Gert Jan Veldwisch, Jean-Philippe Venot, Bruno Bonté, David W. Walker, and Tobias Krueger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4157–4186, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The exact power of models often remains hidden, especially when neutrality is claimed. Our review of 61 scientific articles shows that in the scientific literature little attention is given to the power of water models to influence development processes and outcomes. However, there is a lot to learn from those who are openly reflexive. Based on lessons from the review, we call for power-sensitive modelling, which means that people are critical about how models are made and with what effects.
Saskia Salwey, Gemma Coxon, Francesca Pianosi, Rosanna Lane, Chris Hutton, Michael Bliss Singer, Hilary McMillan, and Jim Freer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4203–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reservoirs are essential for water resource management and can significantly impact downstream flow. However, representing reservoirs in hydrological models can be challenging, particularly across large scales. We design a new and simple method for simulating river flow downstream of water supply reservoirs using only open-access data. We demonstrate the approach in 264 reservoir catchments across Great Britain, where we can significantly improve the simulation of reservoir-impacted flow.
Amelie Herzog, Jost Hellwig, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4065–4083, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Surface water–groundwater interaction can vary along a river. This study used a groundwater model that reproduced relative observed longitudinal and vertical connectivity patterns in the river network to assess the system's response to imposed stress tests. For the case study, imposed groundwater abstraction appears to influence connectivity relatively more than altered recharge, but a quantification of absolute exchange flows will require further model improvements.
Mengxiang Zhang and Ting Fong May Chui
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-232, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-232, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a multiagent socio-hydrologic framework for city, inter-city, and watershed scale integrated green infrastructures (GI) and water resource management. Applied to the Upper Mississippi River Basin, it explores GI-driven water-sharing dynamics in a watershed. It identifies four city-scale water use patterns and characterizes cost and equity in broader scales, thereby enhancing comprehension of GI's role in water resource management and aiding decision-making.
Lisa Tanika, Rika Ratna Sari, Arief Lukman Hakim, Meine van Noordwijk, Marielos Peña-Claros, Beria Leimona, Edi Purwanto, and Erika N. Speelman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3807–3835, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3807-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3807-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The H2Ours game is designed to facilitate knowledge transfer and sharing among stakeholders to trigger commitment and collaborative action to restore hydrological conditions. The adaptability of the H2Ours game was proven in two different landscapes: groundwater recharge in upper to middle sub-watersheds with (over)use of water in the lowland zone and a peatland with drainage, rewetting, oil palm conversion and fire as issues. The game evaluation shows that the H2Ours game meets its purpose.
Pierre Laluet, Luis Olivera-Guerra, Víctor Altés, Vincent Rivalland, Alexis Jeantet, Julien Tournebize, Omar Cenobio-Cruz, Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Josep Maria Villar, and Olivier Merlin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3695–3716, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3695-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3695-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring agricultural drainage flow in irrigated areas is key to water and soil management. In this paper, four simple drainage models are evaluated on two irrigated sub-basins where drainage flow is measured daily. The evaluation of their precision shows that they simulate drainage very well when calibrated with drainage data and that one of them is slightly better. The evaluation of their accuracy shows that only one model can provide rough drainage estimates without calibration data.
Atabek Umirbekov, Mayra Daniela Peña-Guerrero, Iulii Didovets, Heiko Apel, Abror Gafurov, and Daniel Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-174, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-174, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
In snowmelt-dominated catchments, predicting river streamflow typically relies on accumulated snowpack. Our study shows that including large-scale climate patterns like El Niño can improve these predictions. We analyzed climate oscillations, seasonal rainfall, and streamflow, then used these insights and snowpack data in a machine learning model to forecast river streamflow. This method yielded more accurate predictions, useful for long-term forecasting or when snowpack estimates are uncertain.
Gláuber Pontes Rodrigues, Arlena Brosinsky, Ítalo Sampaio Rodrigues, George Leite Mamede, and José Carlos de Araújo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3243–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research focuses on a 4-million-inhabitant tropical region supplied by a network of open-water reservoirs where the dry season lasts for 8 months (Jun−Dec). We analysed the impact of four climate change scenarios on the evaporation rate and the associated availability (water yield distributed per year). The worst-case scenario shows that by the end of the century (2071−2099), the evaporation rate in the dry season could increase by 6 %, which would reduce stored water by about 80 %.
Anjana Ekka, Yong Jiang, Saket Pande, and Pieter van der Zaag
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3219–3241, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, we analyse the economic and ecological performance of existing multiple big reservoirs on a daily timescale for a major river basin (upper Cauvery) in India, where pre-intervention data were not available but where there are increasing calls for such assessments. Results show that smaller reservoirs on smaller streams that maximize the economic value of stored water are better for the basin economy and the environment. The approach can help to prioritize dam removals.
Sarah Quỳnh Giang Ho and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2167, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we use models to demonstrate that even small flood reservoirs – which capture water to avoid floods downstream – can be repurposed to release water in drier conditions without affecting their ability to protect against floods. By capturing water and releasing once water levels are low, we show that reservoirs can greatly increase water available in drought. Having more water coming in, however, is not necessarily better for drought protection.
Mohamad El Gharamti, Arezoo Rafieeinasab, and James L. McCreight
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3133–3159, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a hybrid data assimilation scheme for precise streamflow predictions during intense rainfall and hurricanes. Tested in real events, it outperforms traditional methods by up to 50 %, utilizing ensemble and climatological background covariances. The adaptive algorithm ensures reliability with a small ensemble, offering improved forecasts up to 18 h in advance, marking a significant advancement in flood prediction capabilities.
Alexander Herr, Linda E. Merrin, Patrick J. Mitchell, Anthony P. O'Grady, Kate L. Holland, Richard E. Mount, David A. Post, Chris R. Pavey, and Ashley D. Sparrow
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1957–1979, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1957-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop an ecohydrological classification for regions with limited hydrological records. It provides causal links of landscape features and their water requirement. The classification is an essential framework for modelling the impact of future coal resource developments via water on the features. A rule set combines diverse data with prioritisation, resulting in a transparent, repeatable and adjustable approach. We show examples of linking ecohydrology with environmental impacts.
Jing Liu, Yue-Ping Xu, Wei Zhang, Shiwu Wang, and Siwei Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1325–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1325-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1325-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Applying optimal water allocation models to simultaneously enable economic benefits, water preferences, and environmental demands at different decision levels, timescales, and regions is a challenge. In this study, a process-based three-layer synergistic optimal-allocation model (PTSOA) is established to achieve these goals. Reused, reclaimed water is also coupled to capture environmentally friendly solutions. Network analysis was introduced to reduce competition among different stakeholders.
Bing-Yi Zhou, Guo-Hua Fang, Xin Li, Jian Zhou, and Hua-Yu Zhong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 817–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The current unreasonable inter-basin water transfer operation leads to the problem of spatial and temporal imbalances in water allocation. This paper defines a water deficit evenness index and incorporates it into a joint optimization model for the Jiangsu section of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project considering ecology and economy. At the same time, the lake storage capacity performs well, and the water transfer efficiency of the river is significantly improved.
Tossapol Phoophiwfa, Prapawan Chomphuwiset, Thanawan Prahadchai, Jeong-Soo Park, Arthit Apichottanakul, Watchara Theppang, and Piyapatr Busababodhin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 801–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-801-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the impact of extreme rainfall events on flood risk management in Thailand's Chi watershed. By analyzing historical data, we identified regions, notably Udon Thani and Chaiyaphum, with a high risk of flash flooding. To aid in flood risk assessment, visual maps were created. The study underscores the importance of preparing for extreme rainfall events, particularly in the context of climate change, to effectively mitigate potential flood damage.
Elisabeth Brochet, Youen Grusson, Sabine Sauvage, Ludovic Lhuissier, and Valérie Demarez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 49–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-49-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-49-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to take into account irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model. The model we used combines agriculture and hydrological modeling. Two different crop models were compared, the first based on air temperature and the second based on Sentinel-2 satellite data. Results show that including remote sensing data leads to better emergence dates. Both methods allow us to simulate the daily irrigation withdrawals and downstream flow with a good accuracy, especially during low-flow periods.
Awad M. Ali, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4057–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new approach based on a combination of modeling and Earth observation, useful information about the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can be obtained with limited data and proper rainfall selection. While the monthly streamflow into Sudan has decreased significantly (1.2 × 109–5 × 109 m3) with respect to the non-dam scenario, the negative impact has been masked due to higher-than-average rainfall. We reveal that the dam will need 3–5 more years to complete filling.
Søren J. Kragh, Rasmus Fensholt, Simon Stisen, and Julian Koch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2463–2478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the precision of irrigation estimates from a global hotspot of unsustainable irrigation practice, the Indus and Ganges basins. We show that irrigation water use can be estimated with high precision by comparing satellite and rainfed hydrological model estimates of evapotranspiration. We believe that our work can support sustainable water resource management, as it addresses the uncertainty of a key component of the water balance that remains challenging to quantify.
Kerr J. Adams, Christopher A. J. Macleod, Marc J. Metzger, Nicola Melville, Rachel C. Helliwell, Jim Pritchard, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2205–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We applied participatory methods to create a hybrid equation-based Bayesian network (BN) model to increase stakeholder understanding of catchment-scale resilience to the impacts of both climatic and socio-economic stressors to a 2050 time horizon. Our holistic systems-thinking approach enabled stakeholders to gain new perspectives on how future scenarios may influence their specific sectors and how their sector impacted other sectors and environmental conditions within the catchment system.
Afua Owusu, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, Marloes Mul, Pieter van der Zaag, and Jill Slinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2001–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The construction of two dams in the Lower Volta River, Ghana, adversely affected downstream riverine ecosystems and communities. In contrast, Ghana has enjoyed vast economic benefits from the dams. Herein lies the challenge; there exists a trade-off between water for river ecosystems and water for anthropogenic water demands such hydropower. In this study, we quantify these trade-offs and show that there is room for providing environmental flows under current and future climatic conditions.
Joel Z. Harms, Julien J. Malard-Adam, Jan F. Adamowski, Ashutosh Sharma, and Albert Nkwasa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1683–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To facilitate the meaningful participation of stakeholders in water management, model choice is crucial. We show how system dynamics models (SDMs), which are very visual and stakeholder-friendly, can be automatically combined with physically based hydrological models that may be more appropriate for modelling the water processes of a human–water system. This allows building participatory SDMs with stakeholders and delegating hydrological components to an external hydrological model.
Erhu Du, Feng Wu, Hao Jiang, Naliang Guo, Yong Tian, and Chunmiao Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1607–1626, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that can simulate the entire flood management processes, including flood inundation, flood management policies, public responses, and evacuation activities. The model is able to holistically examine flood evacuation performance under the joint impacts of hydrological conditions, management policies (i.e., shelter location distribution), and human behaviors (i.e., evacuation preparation time and route-searching strategy).
Mohammad Ghoreishi, Amin Elshorbagy, Saman Razavi, Günter Blöschl, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Ahmed Abdelkader
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1201–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a quantitative model of the willingness to cooperate in the Eastern Nile River basin. Our results suggest that the 2008 food crisis may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate with Ethiopia. Long-term lack of trust among the riparian countries may have reduced basin-wide cooperation. The model can be used to explore the effects of changes in future dam operations and other management decisions on the emergence of basin cooperation.
Efrain Noa-Yarasca, Meghna Babbar-Sebens, and Chris Jordan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 739–759, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Riparian vegetation has been identified as a strategy to control rising stream temperatures by shading streams. Riparian vegetation is included within a sub-basin-scale hydrological model and evaluated for full and efficient restoration scenarios. Results showed average temperature reductions of 0.91 and 0.86 °C for full and efficient riparian restoration, respectively. Notwithstanding the similar benefits, efficient restoration was 14.4 % cheaper than full riparian vegetation restoration.
Silvia Terzago, Giulio Bongiovanni, and Jost von Hardenberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 519–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable seasonal forecasts of the abundance of mountain snowpack over the winter/spring ahead provide valuable information for water management, hydropower production and ski tourism. We present a climate service prototype to generate multi-model ensemble seasonal forecasts of mountain snow depth, based on Copernicus seasonal forecast system meteorological data used to force the SNOWPACK model. The prototype shows skill at predicting snow depth below and above normal and extremely dry seasons.
Guang Yang, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 69–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Participatory decision-making is a well-established approach to address the increasing pressure on water systems that searches for system-wise efficient solutions but often does not quantify how the resulting benefits are distributed across stakeholders. In this work, we show how including equity principles into the design of water system operations enriches the solution space by generating more compromise solutions that balance efficiency and justice.
Aaron Heldmyer, Ben Livneh, James McCreight, Laura Read, Joseph Kasprzyk, and Toby Minear
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6121–6136, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of channel characteristics are important for accurate forecasting in the NOAA National Water Model (NWM) but are scarcely available. We seek to improve channel representativeness in the NWM by updating channel geometry and roughness parameters using a large, previously unpublished, dataset of approximately 48 000 gauges. We find that the updated channel parameterization from this new dataset leads to improvements in simulated streamflow performance and channel representation.
Friedrich Boeing, Oldrich Rakovec, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, Martin Schrön, Anke Hildebrandt, Corinna Rebmann, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Müller, Steffen Zacharias, Heye Bogena, Katrin Schneider, Ralf Kiese, Sabine Attinger, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5137–5161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we deliver an evaluation of the second generation operational German drought monitor (https://www.ufz.de/duerremonitor) with a state-of-the-art compilation of observed soil moisture data from 40 locations and four different measurement methods in Germany. We show that the expressed stakeholder needs for higher resolution drought information at the one-kilometer scale can be met and that the agreement of simulated and observed soil moisture dynamics can be moderately improved.
Anahi Ocampo-Melgar, Pilar Barría, Cristián Chadwick, and Cesar Rivas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5103–5118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article examines how a hydrological model exploring the causes of a lake desiccation was turned into a 5-step participatory process to better adjust the model to address questions that were causing suspicions and conflicts in the community. Although the process was key in finding a combination of strategies that were of moderate impact and higher local acceptability, we address the challenges of such collaboration in modeling when conflict is deeply embedded in the context.
Ashish Shrestha, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Samuel Park, Charlotte Cherry, Margaret Garcia, David J. Yu, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4893–4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Equitable sharing of benefits is key to successful cooperation in transboundary water resource management. However, external changes can shift the split of benefits and shifts in the preferences regarding how an actor’s benefits compare to the other’s benefits. To understand how these changes can impact the robustness of cooperative agreements, we develop a socio-hydrological system dynamics model of the benefit sharing provision of the Columbia River Treaty and assess a series of scenarios.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Michel Bechtold, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Luca Brocca, Luca Zappa, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4685–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Given the crucial impact of irrigation practices on the water cycle, this study aims at estimating irrigation through the development of an innovative data assimilation system able to ingest high-resolution Sentinel-1 radar observations into the Noah-MP land surface model. The developed methodology has important implications for global water resource management and the comprehension of human impacts on the water cycle and identifies main challenges and outlooks for future research.
Yujie Zeng, Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Lihua Xiong, Pan Liu, Jiabo Yin, and Zhenhui Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3965–3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The sustainability of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus remains challenge, as interactions between WEF and human sensitivity and water resource allocation in water systems are often neglected. We incorporated human sensitivity and water resource allocation into a WEF nexus and assessed their impacts on the integrated system. This study can contribute to understanding the interactions across the water–energy–food–society nexus and improving the efficiency of resource management.
Louise Busschaert, Shannon de Roos, Wim Thiery, Dirk Raes, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3731–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing amounts of water are used for agriculture. Therefore, we looked into how irrigation requirements will evolve under a changing climate over Europe. Our results show that, by the end of the century and under high emissions, irrigation water will increase by 30 % on average compared to the year 2000. Also, the irrigation requirement is likely to vary more from 1 year to another. However, if emissions are mitigated, these effects are reduced.
Judit Lienert, Jafet C. M. Andersson, Daniel Hofmann, Francisco Silva Pinto, and Martijn Kuller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2899–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Many western Africans encounter serious floods every year. The FANFAR project co-designed a pre-operational flood forecasting system (FEWS) with 50 key western African stakeholders. Participatory multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) helped prioritize a FEWS that meets their needs: it should provide accurate, clear, and timely flood risk information and work reliably in tough conditions. As a theoretical contribution, we propose an assessment framework for transdisciplinary hydrology research.
Donghoon Lee, Jia Yi Ng, Stefano Galelli, and Paul Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2431–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To fully realize the potential of seasonal streamflow forecasts in the hydropower industry, we need to understand the relationship between reservoir design specifications, forecast skill, and value. Here, we rely on realistic forecasts and simulated hydropower operations for 753 dams worldwide to unfold such relationship. Our analysis shows how forecast skill affects hydropower production, what type of dams are most likely to benefit from seasonal forecasts, and where these dams are located.
Cited articles
Abaza, M., Anctil, F., Fortin, V., and Turcotte, R.: A Comparison of the
Canadian Global and Regional Meteorological Ensemble Prediction Systems for
Short-Term Hydrological Forecasting, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 3462–3476,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00206.1, 2013.
Anghileri, D., Monhart, S., Zhou, C., Bogner, K., Castelletti, A., Burlando,
P., and Zappa, M.: The Value of Subseasonal Hydrometeorological Forecasts to
Hydropower Operations: How Much Does Preprocessing Matter?, Water Resour.
Res., 55, 10159–10178, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025280, 2019.
An-Vo, D.-A., Mushtaq, S., Reardon-Smith, K., Kouadio, L., Attard, S., Cobon, D., and Stone, R.: Value of seasonal forecasting for sugarcane farm irrigation planning, Eur. J. Agron., 104, 37–48, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2019.01.005, 2019.
Babcock, B. A., Choi, E. K., and Feinerman, E.: Risk and probability premiums for CARA utility functions, J. Agricult. Resou. Econ., 18, 17–24, https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.30810, 1993.
Bennett, J. C., Robertson, D. E., Wang, Q. J., Li, M., and Perraud, J.-M.:
Propagating reliable estimates of hydrological forecast uncertainty to many
lead times, J. Hydrol., 603, 126798, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126798, 2021.
Bischiniotis, K., van den Hurk, B., Coughlan de Perez, E., Veldkamp, T.,
Nobre, G. G., and Aerts, J.: Assessing time, cost and quality trade-offs in
forecast-based action for floods, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 40, 101252, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101252, 2019.
Bogner, K., Liechti, K., and Zappa, M.: Post-Processing of Stream Flows in
Switzerland with an Emphasis on Low Flows and Floods, Water, 8, 115,
https://doi.org/10.3390/w8040115, 2016.
Cantonati, M., Poikane, S., Pringle, C. M., Stevens, L. E., Turak, E., Heino, J., Richardson, J. S., Bolpagni, R., Borrini, A., Cid, N., Čtvrtlíková, M., Galassi, D. M. P., Hájek, M., Hawes, I.,
Levkov, Z., Naselli-Flores, L., Saber, A. A., Cicco, M. D., Fiasca, B.,
Hamilton, P. B., Kubečka, J., Segadelli, S., and Znachor, P.: Characteristics, Main Impacts, and Stewardship of Natural and Artificial
Freshwater Environments: Consequences for Biodiversity Conservation, Water,
12, 260, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010260, 2020.
Carr, R. H., Semmens, K., Montz, B., and Maxfield, K.: Improving the Use of
Hydrologic Probabilistic and Deterministic Information in Decision-Making,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 102, E1878–E1896, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0019.1, 2021.
Cassagnole, M., Ramos, M.-H., Zalachori, I., Thirel, G., Garçon, R.,
Gailhard, J., and Ouillon, T.: Impact of the quality of hydrological forecasts on the management and revenue of hydroelectric reservoirs – a
conceptual approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1033–1052,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1033-2021, 2021.
Cloke, H. L. and Pappenberger, F.: Ensemble flood forecasting: A review, J. Hydrol., 375, 613–626, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005, 2009.
Dorrington, J., Finney, I., Palmer, T., and Weisheimer, A.: Beyond skill
scores: exploring sub-seasonal forecast value through a case-study of French
month-ahead energy prediction, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 3623–3637, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3863, 2020.
Duan, Q. Pappenberger, F., Wood, A., Cloke, H. L., and Schaake, J. C. (Eds.): Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting edited by Qingyun Duan, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, ISBN 978-3-642-39925-1, 2019.
Expósito, A., Beier, F., and Berbel, J.: Hydro-Economic Modelling for
Water-Policy Assessment Under Climate Change at a River Basin Scale: A Review, Water, 12, 1559, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061559, 2020.
Foley, M. and Loveday, N.: Comparison of Single-Valued Forecasts in a
User-Oriented Framework, Weather Forecast., 35, 1067–1080,
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0248.1, 2020.
Fundel, V. J., Fleischhut, N., Herzog, S. M., Göber, M., and Hagedorn,
R.: Promoting the use of probabilistic weather forecasts through a dialogue
between scientists, developers and end-users, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 210–231, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3482, 2019.
Grafton, R. Q. and Wheeler, S. A.: Economics of Water Recovery in the
Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, Annu. Rev. Resour. Econ., 10, 487–510,
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-100517-023039, 2018.
Harless, D. W. and Camerer, C. F.: The Predictive Utility of Generalized
Expected Utility Theories, Econometrica, 62, 1251–1289, https://doi.org/10.2307/2951749, 1994.
Hudson, D., Alves, O., Hendon, H. H., Lim, E.-P., Liu, G., Luo, J.-J., MacLachlan, C., Marshall, A. G., Shi, L., Wang, G., Wedd, R., Young, G., Zhao, M., and Zhou, X.: ACCESS-S1 The new Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system, J. South. Hemisph. Earth Syst. Sci., 67, 132–159, https://doi.org/10.22499/3.6703.001, 2017.
Jackson, S. and Moggridge, B.: Indigenous water management, Aust. J. Environ. Manage., 26, 193–196, https://doi.org/10.1080/14486563.2019.1661645, 2019.
Jones, D., Wang, W., and Fawcett, R. J. B.: High-quality spatial climate
data-sets for Australia, Aust. Meteorol. Oceanogr. J., 58, 233–248, 2009.
Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A.: Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under
Risk, Econometrica, 47, 263–291, https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185, 1979.
Katz, R. W. and Lazo, J. K.: Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts, Oxford University Press, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195398649.013.0021, 2011.
Katz, R. W. and Murphy, A. H. (Eds.): Economic Value of Weather and Climate
Forecasts, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511608278, 1997.
Laio, F. and Tamea, S.: Verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of
continuous hydrological variables, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1267–1277,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1267-2007, 2007.
Lala, J., Bazo, J., Anand, V., and Block, P.: Optimizing forecast-based actions for extreme rainfall events, Clim. Risk Manage., 34, 100374,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100374, 2021.
Laugesen, R., Thyer, M., McInerney, D., and Kavetski, D.: Supporting data
for “Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions:
application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts” by
Laugesen et al. (2022), University of Adelaide [data set], https://doi.org/10.25909/19153055.v1, 2022.
Li, C., Cheng, X., Li, N., Liang, Z., Wang, Y., and Han, S.: A Three-Parameter S-Shaped Function of Flood Return Period and Damage, Adv. Meteorol., 2016, e6583906, https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/6583906, 2016.
Li, M., Wang, Q. J., Bennett, J. C., and Robertson, D. E.: Error reduction
and representation in stages (ERRIS) in hydrological modelling for ensemble
streamflow forecasting, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3561–3579,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3561-2016, 2016.
Lopez, A., Coughlan de Perez, E., Bazo, J., Suarez, P., van den Hurk, B.,
and van Aalst, M.: Bridging forecast verification and humanitarian decisions: A valuation approach for setting up action-oriented early warnings, Weather Clim. Extrem., 27, 100167, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.03.006, 2020.
Lucatero, D., Madsen, H., Refsgaard, J. C., Kidmose, J., and Jensen, K. H.:
Seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Ahlergaarde catchment, Denmark: the effect of preprocessing and post-processing on skill and statistical
consistency, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3601–3617, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3601-2018, 2018.
Marzban, C.: Displaying Economic Value, Weather Forecast., 27, 1604–1612, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00138.1, 2012.
Mas-Colell, A.: Microeconomic theory, Oxford University Press, New York,
167–208, ISBN 0195073401, 1995.
Matte, S., Boucher, M.-A., Boucher, V., and Fortier Filion, T.-C.: Moving
beyond the cost–loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for
a risk-averse decision maker, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2967–2986, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2967-2017, 2017.
McInerney, D., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., Lerat, J., and Kuczera, G.: Improving probabilistic prediction of daily streamflow by identifying Pareto optimal approaches for modeling heteroscedastic residual errors, Water Resour. Res., 53, 2199–2239, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019168, 2017.
McInerney, D., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., Laugesen, R., Tuteja, N., and Kuczera, G.: Multi-temporal Hydrological Residual Error Modeling for Seamless Subseasonal Streamflow Forecasting, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR026979, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026979, 2020.
McInerney, D., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., Laugesen, R., Woldemeskel, F., Tuteja, N., and Kuczera, G.: Improving the Reliability of Sub-Seasonal Forecasts of High and Low Flows by Using a Flow-Dependent Nonparametric
Model, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR029317, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029317, 2021.
McInerney, D., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., Laugesen, R., Woldemeskel, F., Tuteja, N., and Kuczera, G.: Seamless streamflow forecasting at daily to monthly scales: MuTHRE lets you have your cake and eat it too, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5669–5683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5669-2022, 2022.
Monhart, S., Zappa, M., Spirig, C., Schär, C., and Bogner, K.: Subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in small- and medium-sized mountainous catchments: benefits of the NWP approach, Hydrol.
Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-493-2019, 2019.
Murphy, A. H.: Value of climatological, categorical and probabilistic forecasts in cost-loss ratio situation, Mon. Weather Rev., 105, 803–816, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1977)105<0803:tvocca>2.0.co;2, 1977.
Murphy, A. H.: What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness
in Weather Forecasting, Weather Forecast., 8, 281–293,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1993)008<0281:WIAGFA>2.0.CO;2, 1993.
Murphy, A. H. and Ehrendorfer, M.: On the Relationship between the Accuracy
and Value of Forecasts in the Cost–Loss Ratio Situation, Weather Forecast., 2, 243–251, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1987)002<0243:OTRBTA>2.0.CO;2, 1987.
Murray–Darling Basin Authority: Modelling assessment to determine SDL
Adjustment Volume, MDBA publication no. 35/17, Murray–Darling Basin Authority, Canberra, Australia, ISBN 978-1-925599-41-1, 2017.
Mylne, K. R.: Decision-making from probability forecasts based on forecast
value, Meteorol. Appl., 9, 307–315, https://doi.org/10.1017/s1350482702003043, 2002.
Neumann, J. V.: Theory Of Games And Economic Behavior, Princeton University Press, https://nla.gov.au/nla.cat-vn2335830 (last access: 25 January 2023), 1944.
Palmer, T. N.: The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk
assessment: From days to decades, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 747–774, https://doi.org/10.1256/0035900021643593, 2002.
Peñuela, A., Hutton, C., and Pianosi, F.: Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UK, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 6059–6073, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020, 2020.
Perrin, C., Michel, C., and Andréassian, V.: Improvement of a parsimonious model for streamflow simulation, J. Hydrol., 279, 275–289, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00225-7, 2003.
Portele, T. C., Lorenz, C., Dibrani, B., Laux, P., Bliefernicht, J., and
Kunstmann, H.: Seasonal forecasts offer economic benefit for hydrological
decision making in semi-arid regions, Sci. Rep., 11, 10581,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89564-y, 2021.
Pratt, J. W.: Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large, Econometrica, 32,
122–136, https://doi.org/10.2307/1913738, 1964.
Richardson, D. S.: Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble
prediction system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 649–667, https://doi.org/10.1256/smsqj.56312, 2000.
Roebber, P. J. and Bosart, L. F.: The Complex Relationship between Forecast
Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis, Weather Forecast., 11,
544–559, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1996)011<0544:TCRBFS>2.0.CO;2, 1996.
Roulin, E.: Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological
ensemble predictions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 725–737,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-725-2007, 2007.
Schepen, A., Zhao, T., Wang, Q. J., and Robertson, D. E.: A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall
forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian
catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1615–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1615-2018, 2018.
Schmitt Quedi, E. and Mainardi Fan, F.: Sub seasonal streamflow forecast
assessment at large-scale basins, J. Hydrol., 584, 124635,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124635, 2020.
Soares, M. B., Daly, M., and Dessai, S.: Assessing the value of seasonal
climate forecasts for decision-making, Wiley Interdisciplin. Rev.-Clim. Change, 9, e523, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.523, 2018.
Tabari, H.: Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability, Sci. Rep., 10, 13768,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70816-2, 2020.
Tena, E. C. and Gómez, S. Q.: Cost-Loss Decision Models with Risk
Aversion, Complutense de Estudios Internacionales, 28 pp., ISBN 978-84-691-3436-8, 2008.
Thiboult, A., Anctil, F., and Ramos, M. H.: How does the quantification of
uncertainties affect the quality and value of flood early warning systems?,
J. Hydrol., 551, 365–373, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.014, 2017.
Thompson, J. C.: On the Operational Deficiences in Categorical Weather
Forecasts, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 33, 223–226, 1952.
Turner, S. W. D., Bennett, J. C., Robertson, D. E., and Galelli, S.: Complex
relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4841–4859,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017, 2017.
Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D.: Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative
representation of uncertainty, J. Risk. Uncertain., 5, 297–323,
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00122574, 1992.
UNESCO (Ed.): Managing water under uncertainty and risk, UNESCO, Paris, 780 pp., UNESCO, ISBN 978-92-3-001045-4, 2012.
United Nations: International UN-Water Conference, Water in the Green
Economy in Practice: Towards Rio+20, 3–5 October 2011, Zaragoza, Spain,
https://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/green_economy_2011/ (last access: 10 January 2022), 2011.
Verkade, J. S., Brown, J. D., Davids, F., Reggiani, P., and Weerts, A. H.:
Estimating predictive hydrological uncertainty by dressing deterministic and
ensemble forecasts; a comparison, with application to Meuse and Rhine, J. Hydrol., 555, 257–277, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.10.024, 2017.
Werner, J.: Risk Aversion, in: The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,
Palgrave Macmillan, UK, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_2741-1, 2008.
White, C. J., Franks, S. W., and McEvoy, D.: Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia, in: Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Changes in Flood Risk and Perception in Catchments and Cities – IAHS Symposium HS01, 26th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 22 June–2 July 2015, Prague, Czech Republic, 229–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-229-2015, 2015.
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction, in: International Geophysics, Elsevier Science & Technology, Burlington, ISBN 0-12-751965-3, 1995.
Wilks, D. S.: A skill score based on economic value for probability forecasts, Meteorol. Appl., 8, 209–219, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482701002092, 2001.
Wilks, D. S. and Hamill, T. M.: Potential Economic Value of Ensemble-Based
Surface Weather Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 123, 3565–3575,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<3565:PEVOEB>2.0.CO;2, 1995.
Woldemeskel, F., McInerney, D., Lerat, J., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., Shin, D., Tuteja, N., and Kuczera, G.: Evaluating post-processing approaches for monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6257–6278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6257-2018, 2018.
Wu, W., Emerton, R., Duan, Q., Wood, A. W., Wetterhall, F., and Robertson, D. E.: Ensemble flood forecasting: Current status and future opportunities, WIREs Water, 7, e1432, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1432, 2020.
Zhang, X. S., Amirthanathan, G. E., Bari, M. A., Laugesen, R. M., Shin, D.,
Kent, D. M., MacDonald, A. M., Turner, M. E., and Tuteja, N. K.: How
streamflow has changed across Australia since the 1950s: Evidence from the
network of hydrologic reference stations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3947–3965, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3947-2016, 2016.
Zhu, Y. J., Toth, Z., Wobus, R., Richardson, D., and Mylne, K.: The economic
value of ensemble-based weather forecasts, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 73–84, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<0073:tevoeb>2.3.co;2, 2002.
Short summary
Forecasts may be valuable for user decisions, but current practice to quantify it has critical limitations. This study introduces RUV (relative utility value, a new metric that can be tailored to specific decisions and decision-makers. It illustrates how critical this decision context is when evaluating forecast value. This study paves the way for agencies to tailor the evaluation of their services to customer decisions and researchers to study model improvements through the lens of user impact.
Forecasts may be valuable for user decisions, but current practice to quantify it has critical...