Articles | Volume 27, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023
Research article
 | 
23 Feb 2023
Research article |  | 23 Feb 2023

Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts

Richard Laugesen, Mark Thyer, David McInerney, and Dmitri Kavetski

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Cited articles

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Short summary
Forecasts may be valuable for user decisions, but current practice to quantify it has critical limitations. This study introduces RUV (relative utility value, a new metric that can be tailored to specific decisions and decision-makers. It illustrates how critical this decision context is when evaluating forecast value. This study paves the way for agencies to tailor the evaluation of their services to customer decisions and researchers to study model improvements through the lens of user impact.
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