Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts

Laugesen, Richard; Thyer, Mark; McInerney, David; Kavetski, Dmitri

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023

Articles | Volume 27, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 27, issue 4

Research article

|

23 Feb 2023

Research article |

| 23 Feb 2023

Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts

Richard Laugesen, Mark Thyer, David McInerney, and Dmitri Kavetski

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023-supplement

Data sets

Supporting data for "Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts" by Laugesen et.al. (2022) R. Laugesen, M. Thyer, D. McInerney, and D. Kavetski https://doi.org/10.25909/19153055

Short summary

Forecasts may be valuable for user decisions, but current practice to quantify it has critical limitations. This study introduces RUV (relative utility value, a new metric that can be tailored to specific decisions and decision-makers. It illustrates how critical this decision context is when evaluating forecast value. This study paves the way for agencies to tailor the evaluation of their services to customer decisions and researchers to study model improvements through the lens of user impact.