Articles | Volume 27, issue 4
Research article
23 Feb 2023
Research article |  | 23 Feb 2023

Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts

Richard Laugesen, Mark Thyer, David McInerney, and Dmitri Kavetski


Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2022-65', Anonymous Referee #1, 27 May 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Richard Laugesen, 30 Aug 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on hess-2022-65', Anonymous Referee #2, 13 Jul 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Richard Laugesen, 30 Aug 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (further review by editor) (26 Oct 2022) by Wouter Buytaert
AR by Richard Laugesen on behalf of the Authors (02 Dec 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (19 Dec 2022) by Wouter Buytaert
Short summary
Forecasts may be valuable for user decisions, but current practice to quantify it has critical limitations. This study introduces RUV (relative utility value, a new metric that can be tailored to specific decisions and decision-makers. It illustrates how critical this decision context is when evaluating forecast value. This study paves the way for agencies to tailor the evaluation of their services to customer decisions and researchers to study model improvements through the lens of user impact.