Articles | Volume 26, issue 4
18 Feb 2022
Research article | 18 Feb 2022
Historical simulation of maize water footprints with a new global gridded crop model ACEA
Oleksandr Mialyk et al.
No articles found.
Han Su, Bárbara Willaarts, Diana Luna-Gonzalez, Maarten S. Krol, and Rick J. Hogeboom
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4397–4418,Short summary
There are over 608 million farms around the world but they are not the same. We developed high spatial resolution maps showing where small and large farms were located and which crops were planted for 56 countries. We checked the reliability and have the confidence to use them for the country level and global studies. Our maps will help more studies to easily measure how agriculture policies, water availability, and climate change affect small and large farms.
Seyedabdolhossein Mehvar, Kathelijne Wijnberg, Bas Borsje, Norman Kerle, Jan Maarten Schraagen, Joanne Vinke-de Kruijf, Karst Geurs, Andreas Hartmann, Rick Hogeboom, and Suzanne Hulscher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1383–1407,Short summary
This review synthesizes and complements existing knowledge in designing resilient vital infrastructure systems (VIS). Results from a systematic literature review indicate that (i) VIS are still being built without taking resilience explicitly into account and (ii) measures to enhance the resilience of VIS have not been widely applied in practice. The main pressing topic to address is the integration of the combined social, ecological, and technical resilience of these systems.
Chao Gao, Martijn J. Booij, and Yue-Ping Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3251–3269,Short summary
This paper studies the impact of climate change on high and low flows and quantifies the contribution of uncertainty sources from representative concentration pathways (RCPs), global climate models (GCMs) and internal climate variability in extreme flows. Internal climate variability was reflected in a stochastic rainfall model. The results show the importance of internal climate variability and GCM uncertainty in high flows and GCM and RCP uncertainty in low flows especially for the far future.
Harm-Jan F. Benninga, Martijn J. Booij, Renata J. Romanowicz, and Tom H. M. Rientjes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5273–5291,Short summary
Accurate flood and low-streamflow forecasting are important. The paper presents a methodology to evaluate ensemble streamflow-forecasting systems for different lead times; low, medium and high streamflow; and related runoff-generating processes. We applied the methodology to a study forecasting system of the Biała Tarnowska River in Poland. The results provide valuable information about the forecasting system: in which conditions it can be used and how the system can be improved effectively.
Tom Brouwer, Dirk Eilander, Arnejan van Loenen, Martijn J. Booij, Kathelijne M. Wijnberg, Jan S. Verkade, and Jurjen Wagemaker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 735–747,Short summary
The increasing number and severity of floods, driven by e.g. urbanization, subsidence and climate change, create a growing need for accurate and timely flood maps. At the same time social media is a source of much real-time data that is still largely untapped in flood disaster management. This study illustrates that inherently uncertain data from social media can be used to derive information about flooding.
J. F. Schyns, A. Y. Hoekstra, and M. J. Booij
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4581–4608,Short summary
The paper draws attention to the fact that green water (soil moisture returning to the atmosphere through evaporation) is a scarce resource, because its availability is limited and there are competing demands for green water. Around 80 indicators of green water availability and scarcity are reviewed and classified based on their scope and purpose of measurement. This is useful in order to properly include limitations in green water availability in water scarcity assessments.
M. C. Demirel, M. J. Booij, and A. Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 275–291,Short summary
This paper investigates the skill of 90-day low-flow forecasts using three models. From the results, it appears that all models are prone to over-predict runoff during low-flow periods using ensemble seasonal meteorological forcing. The largest range for 90-day low-flow forecasts is found for the GR4J model. Overall, the uncertainty from ensemble P forecasts has a larger effect on seasonal low-flow forecasts than the uncertainty from ensemble PET forecasts and initial model conditions.
W. R. van Esse, C. Perrin, M. J. Booij, D. C. M. Augustijn, F. Fenicia, D. Kavetski, and F. Lobligeois
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4227–4239,
M. C. Demirel, M. J. Booij, and A. Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4241–4257,
Related subject area
Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approachesChallenges and benefits of quantifying irrigation through the assimilation of Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into Noah-MPA system dynamic model to quantify the impacts of water resources allocation on water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexusNet irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over EuropeThe role of multi-criteria decision analysis in a transdisciplinary process: co-developing a flood forecasting system in western AfricaUnfolding the relationship between seasonal forecast skill and value in hydropower production: a global analysisDrought impact links to meteorological drought indicators and predictability in SpainOpportunities for seasonal forecasting to support water management outside the tropicsProbabilistic modelling of the inherent field-level pesticide pollution risk in a small drinking water catchment using spatial Bayesian belief networksAre maps of nitrate reduction in groundwater altered by climate and land use changes?Future upstream water consumption and its impact on downstream water availability in the transboundary Indus BasinCooperation under conflict: participatory hydrological modeling for science policy dialogues in the Aculeo LakeIdentifying the dynamic evolution and feedback process of water resources nexus system considering socioeconomic development, ecological protection, and food security: A practical tool for sustainable water useOptimizing a backscatter forward operator using Sentinel-1 data over irrigated landEvaluation of a New Observationally Based Channel Parameterization for the National Water ModelSocio-hydrological modeling of the tradeoff between flood control and hydropower provided by the Columbia River TreatyRobustness of a parsimonious subsurface drainage model at the French national scaleSpatially distributed impacts of climate change and groundwater demand on the water resources in a wadi systemDelineation of dew formation zones in Iran using long-term model simulations and cluster analysisStreamflow estimation at partially gaged sites using multiple-dependence conditions via vine copulasHigh-resolution drought simulations and comparison to soil moisture observations in GermanyWater resources management and dynamic changes in water politics in the transboundary river basins of Central AsiaAssessing interannual variability in nitrogen sourcing and retention through hybrid Bayesian watershed modelingMinimizing the impact of vacating instream storage of a multi-reservoir system: a trade-off study of water supply and empty flushingGlobal cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumptionSignatures of human intervention – or not? Downstream intensification of hydrological drought along a large Central Asian river: the individual roles of climate variability and land use changeField-scale soil moisture bridges the spatial-scale gap between drought monitoring and agricultural yieldsSocio-hydrologic modeling of the dynamics of cooperation in the transboundary Lancang–Mekong RiverMulti-level storylines for participatory modeling – involving marginalized communities in Tz'olöj Ya', Mayan GuatemalaBenchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in SwedenImpact of the quality of hydrological forecasts on the management and revenue of hydroelectric reservoirs – a conceptual approachA novel causal structure-based framework for comparing a basin-wide water–energy–food–ecology nexus applied to the data-limited Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basinsProjection of irrigation water demand based on the simulation of synthetic crop coefficients and climate changeComparative analysis of kernel-based versus ANN and deep learning methods in monthly reference evapotranspiration estimationAssessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UKFrom skill to value: isolating the influence of end user behavior on seasonal forecast assessmentThe value of citizen science for flood risk reduction: cost–benefit analysis of a citizen observatory in the Brenta-Bacchiglione catchmentRisk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basinInterplay of changing irrigation technologies and water reuse: example from the upper Snake River basin, Idaho, USAThe benefit of using an ensemble of seasonal streamflow forecasts in water allocation decisionsEvapotranspiration partition using the multiple energy balance version of the ISBA-A-gs land surface model over two irrigated crops in a semi-arid Mediterranean region (Marrakech, Morocco)Irrigation return flow causing a nitrate hotspot and denitrification imprints in groundwater at Tinwald, New ZealandMulti-objective calibration by combination of stochastic and gradient-like parameter generation rules – the caRamel algorithmA novel data-driven analytical framework on hierarchical water allocation integrated with blue and virtual water transfersA novel regional irrigation water productivity model coupling irrigation- and drainage-driven soil hydrology and salinity dynamics and shallow groundwater movement in arid regions in ChinaAn evapotranspiration model self-calibrated from remotely sensed surface soil moisture, land surface temperature and vegetation cover fraction: application to disaggregated SMOS and MODIS dataOn the assimilation of environmental tracer observations for model-based decision supportInferred inflow forecast horizons guiding reservoir release decisions across the United StatesAssessment of potential implications of agricultural irrigation policy on surface water scarcity in BrazilAbility of a soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer model and a two-source energy balance model to predict evapotranspiration for several crops and climate conditionsAssessing water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region under projected climate change
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Michel Bechtold, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Luca Brocca, Luca Zappa, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4685–4706,Short summary
Given the crucial impact of irrigation practices on the water cycle, this study aims at estimating irrigation through the development of an innovative data assimilation system able to ingest high-resolution Sentinel-1 radar observations into the Noah-MP land surface model. The developed methodology has important implications for global water resource management and the comprehension of human impacts on the water cycle and identifies main challenges and outlooks for future research.
Yujie Zeng, Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Lihua Xiong, Pan Liu, Jiabo Yin, and Zhenhui Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3965–3988,Short summary
The sustainability of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus remains challenge, as interactions between WEF and human sensitivity and water resource allocation in water systems are often neglected. We incorporated human sensitivity and water resource allocation into a WEF nexus and assessed their impacts on the integrated system. This study can contribute to understanding the interactions across the water–energy–food–society nexus and improving the efficiency of resource management.
Louise Busschaert, Shannon de Roos, Wim Thiery, Dirk Raes, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3731–3752,Short summary
Increasing amounts of water are used for agriculture. Therefore, we looked into how irrigation requirements will evolve under a changing climate over Europe. Our results show that, by the end of the century and under high emissions, irrigation water will increase by 30 % on average compared to the year 2000. Also, the irrigation requirement is likely to vary more from 1 year to another. However, if emissions are mitigated, these effects are reduced.
Judit Lienert, Jafet C. M. Andersson, Daniel Hofmann, Francisco Silva Pinto, and Martijn Kuller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2899–2922,Short summary
Many western Africans encounter serious floods every year. The FANFAR project co-designed a pre-operational flood forecasting system (FEWS) with 50 key western African stakeholders. Participatory multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) helped prioritize a FEWS that meets their needs: it should provide accurate, clear, and timely flood risk information and work reliably in tough conditions. As a theoretical contribution, we propose an assessment framework for transdisciplinary hydrology research.
Donghoon Lee, Jia Yi Ng, Stefano Galelli, and Paul Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2431–2448,Short summary
To fully realize the potential of seasonal streamflow forecasts in the hydropower industry, we need to understand the relationship between reservoir design specifications, forecast skill, and value. Here, we rely on realistic forecasts and simulated hydropower operations for 753 dams worldwide to unfold such relationship. Our analysis shows how forecast skill affects hydropower production, what type of dams are most likely to benefit from seasonal forecasts, and where these dams are located.
Herminia Torelló-Sentelles and Christian L. E. Franzke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1821–1844,Short summary
Drought affects many regions worldwide, and future climate projections imply that drought severity and frequency will increase. Hence, the impacts of drought on the environment and society will also increase considerably. Monitoring and early warning systems for drought rely on several indicators; however, assessments on how these indicators are linked to impacts are still lacking. Our results show that meteorological indices are best linked to impact occurrences.
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Elvira de Eyto, Andrew S. French, María Dolores Frías, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Tadhg Moore, Laura Puértolas, Russell Poole, Karsten Rinke, Muhammed Shikhani, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1389–1406,Short summary
We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality, and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision-making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.
Mads Troldborg, Zisis Gagkas, Andy Vinten, Allan Lilly, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1261–1293,Short summary
Pesticides continue to pose a threat to surface water quality worldwide. Here, we present a spatial Bayesian belief network (BBN) for assessing inherent pesticide risk to water quality. The BBN was applied in a small catchment with limited data to simulate the risk of five pesticides and evaluate the likely effectiveness of mitigation measures. The probabilistic graphical model combines diverse data and explicitly accounts for uncertainties, which are often ignored in pesticide risk assessments.
Ida Karlsson Seidenfaden, Torben Obel Sonnenborg, Jens Christian Refsgaard, Christen Duus Børgesen, Jørgen Eivind Olesen, and Dennis Trolle
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 955–973,Short summary
This study investigates how the spatial nitrate reduction in the subsurface may shift under changing climate and land use conditions. This change is investigated by comparing maps showing the spatial nitrate reduction in an agricultural catchment for current conditions, with maps generated for future projected climate and land use conditions. Results show that future climate flow paths may shift the catchment reduction noticeably, while implications of land use changes were less substantial.
Wouter J. Smolenaars, Sanita Dhaubanjar, Muhammad K. Jamil, Arthur Lutz, Walter Immerzeel, Fulco Ludwig, and Hester Biemans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 861–883,Short summary
The arid plains of the lower Indus Basin rely heavily on the water provided by the mountainous upper Indus. Rapid population growth in the upper Indus is expected to increase the water that is consumed there. This will subsequently reduce the water that is available for the downstream plains, where the population and water demand are also expected to grow. In future, this may aggravate tensions over the division of water between the countries that share the Indus Basin.
Anahi Ocampo-Melgar, Pilar Barria, Cristian Chadwick, and Cesar Rivas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for HESSShort summary
A WEAP based hydrological model study exploring the causes of a lake desiccation, was transformed into a multiple question driven process to help answer the diversity of questions instigating conflict in a parallel collaborative process. The identification and evaluation of strategies allowed to better adjust the model, address questions that were causing suspicions and conflicts, while identifying a combination of strategies that were of moderate impact, but of higher local acceptability.
Yaogeng Tan, Zengchuan Dong, Sandra M. Guzman, Xinkui Wang, and Wei Yan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6495–6522,Short summary
The rapid increase in economic development and urbanization is contributing to the imbalances and conflicts between water supply and demand and further deteriorates river ecological health, which intensifies their interactions and causes water unsustainability. This paper proposes a methodology for sustainable development of water resources, considering socioeconomic development, food safety, and ecological protection, and the dynamic interactions across those water users are further assessed.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Alexander Gruber, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Renato Morbidelli, and Gabrielle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6283–6307,Short summary
Worldwide, the amount of water used for agricultural purposes is rising and the quantification of irrigation is becoming a crucial topic. Land surface models are not able to correctly simulate irrigation. Remote sensing observations offer an opportunity to fill this gap as they are directly affected by irrigation. We equipped a land surface model with an observation operator able to transform Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into realistic vegetation and soil states via data assimilation.
Aaron Heldmyer, Ben Livneh, James McCreight, Laura Read, Joseph Kasprzyk, and Toby Minear
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for HESSShort summary
Measurements of channel characteristics are important for accurate forecasting in the NOAA National Water Model (NWM), yet are scarcely available. We seek to improve channel representativeness in the NWM by updating channel geometry and roughness parameters using a large, previously unpublished dataset of approximately 48,000 gages. We find that the updated channel parameterization from this new dataset leads to improvements in simulated streamflow performance and channel representation.
Ashish Shrestha, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Samuel Park, Charlotte Cherry, Margaret Garcia, David J. Yu, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for HESSShort summary
Equitable sharing of benefits is key to successful cooperation in transboundary water resource management. However, external changes can shift the split of benefits and shifts in the preferences regarding how an actor’s benefits compare to other’s benefits. To understand how these changes can impact the robustness of cooperative agreements, we develop a socio-hydrological system dynamics model of the benefit sharing provision of the Columbia River Treaty and assess a series of scenarios.
Alexis Jeantet, Hocine Henine, Cédric Chaumont, Lila Collet, Guillaume Thirel, and Julien Tournebize
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5447–5471,Short summary
The hydrological subsurface drainage model SIDRA-RU is assessed at the French national scale, using a unique database representing the large majority of the French drained areas. The model is evaluated following its capacity to simulate the drainage discharge variability and the annual drained water balance. Eventually, the temporal robustness of SIDRA-RU is assessed to demonstrate the utility of this model as a long-term management tool.
Nariman Mahmoodi, Jens Kiesel, Paul D. Wagner, and Nicola Fohrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5065–5081,Short summary
In this study, we assessed the sustainability of water resources in a wadi region with the help of a hydrologic model. Our assessment showed that the increases in groundwater demand and consumption exacerbate the negative impact of climate change on groundwater sustainability and hydrologic regime alteration. These alterations have severe consequences for a downstream wetland and its ecosystem. The approach may be applicable in other wadi regions with different climate and water use systems.
Nahid Atashi, Dariush Rahimi, Victoria A. Sinclair, Martha A. Zaidan, Anton Rusanen, Henri Vuollekoski, Markku Kulmala, Timo Vesala, and Tareq Hussein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4719–4740,Short summary
Dew formation potential during a long-term period (1979–2018) was assessed in Iran to identify dew formation zones and to investigate the impacts of long-term variation in meteorological parameters on dew formation. Six dew formation zones were identified based on cluster analysis of the time series of the simulated dew yield. The distribution of dew formation zones in Iran was closely aligned with topography and sources of moisture. The dew formation trend was significantly negative.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4319–4333,Short summary
This study proposes a multiple-dependence model for estimating streamflow at partially gaged sites. The evaluations are conducted on a case study of the eastern USA and show that the proposed model is suited for infilling missing values. The performance is further evaluated with six other infilling models. Results demonstrate that the proposed model produces more reliable streamflow estimates than the other approaches. The model can be applicable to other hydro-climatological variables.
Friedrich Boeing, Oldrich Rakovech, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, Martin Schrön, Anke Hildebrandt, Corinna Rebmann, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Müller, Steffen Zacharias, Heye Bogena, Katrin Schneider, Ralf Kiese, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for HESSShort summary
In this paper, we deliver an evaluation of the second generation operational German Drought Monitor (www.ufz.de/duerremonitor) with a state-of-the-art compilation of observed soil moisture data from 40 locations and four different measurement methods in Germany. We show that the expressed stakeholder needs for higher resolution drought information at the one-kilometer scale can be met and that SM dynamics could be moderately improved compared to observations.
Xuanxuan Wang, Yaning Chen, Zhi Li, Gonghuan Fang, Fei Wang, and Haichao Hao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3281–3299,Short summary
The growing water crisis in Central Asia and the complex water politics of the region's transboundary rivers are a hot topic for research, while the dynamic changes of water politics in Central Asia have yet to be studied in depth. Based on the Gini coefficient, water political events and social network analysis, we analyzed the matching degree between water and socio-economic elements and the dynamics of hydropolitics in transboundary river basins of Central Asia.
Jonathan W. Miller, Kimia Karimi, Arumugam Sankarasubramanian, and Daniel R. Obenour
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2789–2804,Short summary
Within a watershed, nutrient export can vary greatly over time and space. In this study, we develop a model to leverage over 30 years of streamflow, precipitation, and nutrient sampling data to characterize nitrogen export from various livestock and land use types across a range of precipitation conditions. Modeling results reveal that urban lands developed before 1980 have remarkably high levels of nitrogen export, while agricultural export is most responsive to precipitation.
Chia-Wen Wu, Frederick N.-F. Chou, and Fong-Zuo Lee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2063–2087,Short summary
This paper promotes the feasibility of emptying instream storage through joint operation of multiple reservoirs. The trade-off between water supply and emptying reservoir storage and alleviating impacts on downstream environment are thoroughly discussed. Operation of reservoirs is optimized to calibrate the optimal parameters defining the activation and termination of emptying reservoir. The optimized strategy limits the water shortage and maximizes the expected benefits of emptying reservoir.
Yvonne Jans, Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Christoph Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2027–2044,Short summary
Growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To analyze the global cotton production and irrigation water consumption under spatially varying present and future climatic conditions, we use the global terrestrial biosphere model LPJmL. Our simulation results suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated [CO2] on cotton yields overcompensate yield losses from direct climate change impacts, i.e., without the beneficial effect of [CO2] fertilization.
Artemis Roodari, Markus Hrachowitz, Farzad Hassanpour, and Mostafa Yaghoobzadeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1943–1967,Short summary
In a combined data analysis and modeling study in the transboundary Helmand River basin, we analyzed spatial patterns of drought and changes therein based on the drought indices as well as on absolute water deficits. Overall the results illustrate that flow deficits and the associated droughts clearly reflect the dynamic interplay between temporally varying regional differences in hydro-meteorological variables together with subtle and temporally varying effects linked to human intervention.
Noemi Vergopolan, Sitian Xiong, Lyndon Estes, Niko Wanders, Nathaniel W. Chaney, Eric F. Wood, Megan Konar, Kelly Caylor, Hylke E. Beck, Nicolas Gatti, Tom Evans, and Justin Sheffield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1827–1847,Short summary
Drought monitoring and yield prediction often rely on coarse-scale hydroclimate data or (infrequent) vegetation indexes that do not always indicate the conditions farmers face in the field. Consequently, decision-making based on these indices can often be disconnected from the farmer reality. Our study focuses on smallholder farming systems in data-sparse developing countries, and it shows how field-scale soil moisture can leverage and improve crop yield prediction and drought impact assessment.
You Lu, Fuqiang Tian, Liying Guo, Iolanda Borzì, Rupesh Patil, Jing Wei, Dengfeng Liu, Yongping Wei, David J. Yu, and Murugesu Sivapalan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1883–1903,Short summary
The upstream countries in the transboundary Lancang–Mekong basin build dams for hydropower, while downstream ones gain irrigation and fishery benefits. Dam operation changes the seasonality of runoff downstream, resulting in their concerns. Upstream countries may cooperate and change their regulations of dams to gain indirect political benefits. The socio-hydrological model couples hydrology, reservoir, economy, and cooperation and reproduces the phenomena, providing a useful model framework.
Jessica A. Bou Nassar, Julien J. Malard, Jan F. Adamowski, Marco Ramírez Ramírez, Wietske Medema, and Héctor Tuy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1283–1306,Short summary
Our research suggests a method that facilitates the inclusion of marginalized stakeholders in model-building activities to address problems in water resources. Our case study showed that knowledge produced by typically excluded stakeholders had significant and unique contributions to the outcome of the process. Moreover, our method facilitated the identification of relationships between societal, economic, and hydrological factors, and it fostered collaborations across different communities.
Marc Girons Lopez, Louise Crochemore, and Ilias G. Pechlivanidis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1189–1209,Short summary
The Swedish hydrological warning service is extending its use of seasonal forecasts, which requires an analysis of the available methods. We evaluate the simple ESP method and find out how and why forecasts vary in time and space. We find that forecasts are useful up to 3 months into the future, especially during winter and in northern Sweden. They tend to be good in slow-reacting catchments and bad in flashy and highly regulated ones. We finally link them with areas of similar behaviour.
Manon Cassagnole, Maria-Helena Ramos, Ioanna Zalachori, Guillaume Thirel, Rémy Garçon, Joël Gailhard, and Thomas Ouillon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1033–1052,
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Hongwei Zheng, Chunbo Chen, Olaf Hellwich, Jie Bai, Tie Liu, Shuang Liu, Jie Xue, Peng Cai, Huili He, Friday Uchenna Ochege, Tim Van de Voorde, and Philippe de Maeyer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 901–925,Short summary
Some river basins are considered to be very similar because they have a similar background such as a transboundary, facing threats of human activities. But we still lack understanding of differences under their general similarities. Therefore, we proposed a framework based on a Bayesian network to group watersheds based on similarity levels and compare the causal and systematic differences within the group. We applied it to the Amu and Syr Darya River basin and discussed its universality.
Michel Le Page, Younes Fakir, Lionel Jarlan, Aaron Boone, Brahim Berjamy, Saïd Khabba, and Mehrez Zribi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 637–651,Short summary
In the context of major changes, the southern Mediterranean area faces serious challenges with low and continuously decreasing water resources mainly attributed to agricultural use. A method for projecting irrigation water demand under both anthropogenic and climatic changes is proposed. Time series of satellite imagery are used to determine a set of semiempirical equations that can be easily adapted to different future scenarios.
Mohammad Taghi Sattari, Halit Apaydin, Shahab S. Band, Amir Mosavi, and Ramendra Prasad
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 603–618,Short summary
The aim of study is to estimate the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) amount with artificial intelligence using minimum meteorological parameters in the Corum region, which is an agricultural center of Turkey. Kernel-based GPR and SVR and BFGS-ANN and LSTM models were used to estimate ET0 amounts in 10 different combinations. The results show that all four methods used predicted ET0 amounts at acceptable accuracy and error levels. The BFGS-ANN model showed higher success than the others.
Andres Peñuela, Christopher Hutton, and Francesca Pianosi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 6059–6073,Short summary
In this paper we evaluate the potential use of seasonal weather forecasts to improve reservoir operation in a UK water supply system. We found that the use of seasonal forecasts can improve the efficiency of reservoir operation but only if the forecast uncertainty is explicitly considered. We also found the degree of efficiency improvement is strongly affected by the decision maker priorities and the hydrological conditions.
Matteo Giuliani, Louise Crochemore, Ilias Pechlivanidis, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5891–5902,Short summary
This paper aims at quantifying the value of hydroclimatic forecasts in terms of potential economic benefit to end users in the Lake Como basin (Italy), which allows the inference of a relation between gains in forecast skill and gains in end user profit. We also explore the sensitivity of this benefit to both the forecast system setup and end user behavioral factors, showing that the estimated forecast value is potentially undermined by different levels of end user risk aversion.
Michele Ferri, Uta Wehn, Linda See, Martina Monego, and Steffen Fritz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5781–5798,Short summary
As part of the flood risk management strategy of the Brenta-Bacchiglione catchment (Italy), a citizen observatory for flood risk management is currently being implemented. A cost–benefit analysis of the citizen observatory was undertaken to demonstrate the value of this approach in monetary terms. Results show a reduction in avoided damage of 45 % compared to a scenario without implementation of the citizen observatory. The idea is to promote this methodology for future flood risk management.
Sara Suárez-Almiñana, Abel Solera, Jaime Madrigal, Joaquín Andreu, and Javier Paredes-Arquiola
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5297–5315,Short summary
This work responds to the need for an effective methodology that integrates climate change projections into water planning and management to guide complex basin decision-making. This general approach is based on a model chain for management and drought risk assessments and applied to the Júcar River basin (Spain), showing a worrying deterioration of the basin's future water resources availability and drought indicators, despite a considerable uncertainty of results from the mid-century onwards.
Shan Zuidema, Danielle Grogan, Alexander Prusevich, Richard Lammers, Sarah Gilmore, and Paula Williams
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5231–5249,Short summary
In our case study we find that increasing the efficiency of irrigation technology will have unintended consequences like reducing water available for aquifer replenishment or for other irrigators. The amount of water needed to stabilize regional aquifers exceeds the amount that could be saved by improving irrigation efficiency. Since users depend upon local groundwater storage, which is more sensitive to management decisions than river flow, comanagement of surface and groundwater is critical.
Alexander Kaune, Faysal Chowdhury, Micha Werner, and James Bennett
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3870,Short summary
This paper was developed from PhD research focused on assessing the value of using hydrological datasets in water resource management. Previous studies have assessed how well data can help in predicting river flows, but there is a lack of knowledge of how well data can help in water allocation decisions. In our research, it was found that using seasonal streamflow forecasts improves the available water estimates, resulting in better water allocation decisions in a highly regulated basin.
Ghizlane Aouade, Lionel Jarlan, Jamal Ezzahar, Salah Er-Raki, Adrien Napoly, Abdelfattah Benkaddour, Said Khabba, Gilles Boulet, Sébastien Garrigues, Abdelghani Chehbouni, and Aaron Boone
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3789–3814,Short summary
Our objective is to question the representation of the energy budget in surface–vegetation–atmosphere transfer models for the prediction of the convective fluxes in crops with complex structures (row) and under transient hydric regimes due to irrigation. The main result is that a coupled multiple energy balance approach is necessary to properly predict surface exchanges for these complex crops. It also points out the need for other similar studies on various crops with different sparsity levels.
Michael Kilgour Stewart and Philippa Lauren Aitchison-Earl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3583–3601,Short summary
This paper is important for water resource management, being concerned with irrigation return flow causing
hotspotsin nitrate concentrations in groundwater and
denitrification imprintswhere nitrate concentrations are reduced by denitrification although the dissolved oxygen concentration is not low. The work is highly significant for modelling of nitrate transport through soil–groundwater systems, for understanding denitrification processes, and for managing fertilizer application to land.
Céline Monteil, Fabrice Zaoui, Nicolas Le Moine, and Frédéric Hendrickx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3189–3209,Short summary
Environmental modelling is complex, and models often require the calibration of several parameters that are not able to be directly evaluated from a physical quantity or a field measurement. Based on our experience in hydrological modelling, we propose combining two algorithms to obtain a fast and accurate way of calibrating complex models (many parameters and many objectives). We built an R package, caRamel, so that this multi-objective calibration algorithm can be easily implemented.
Liming Yao, Zhongwen Xu, Huijuan Wu, and Xudong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2769–2789,Short summary
Results show that coalitional strategy of blue and virtual water transfers can substantially save water and improve utilization efficiency without harming sectors' benefits and increasing ecological stresses. Under various polices, we use data-driven analysis to simulate hydrological and economic parameters, such as available water, crop import price, and water market price. Different water allocation and transfer results are obtained by adjusting hydrological and economic parameters.
Jingyuan Xue, Zailin Huo, Shuai Wang, Chaozi Wang, Ian White, Isaya Kisekka, Zhuping Sheng, Guanhua Huang, and Xu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2399–2418,Short summary
Due to increasing food demand and limited water resources, the quantification of the irrigation water productivity (IWP) is critical. Hydrological processes in irrigated areas differ in different watersheds owing to different irrigation–drainage activities, and this is more complex with shallow groundwater. Considering the complexity of the IWP, we developed a regional IWP model to simulate its spatial distribution; this informs irrigation managers on where they can improve IWP and save water.
Bouchra Ait Hssaine, Olivier Merlin, Jamal Ezzahar, Nitu Ojha, Salah Er-Raki, and Said Khabba
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1781–1803,
Matthew J. Knowling, Jeremy T. White, Catherine R. Moore, Pawel Rakowski, and Kevin Hayley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1677–1689,Short summary
The incorporation of novel and diverse data sources into predictive models is expected to improve the reliability of model forecasts. This study critically and rigorously explores the extent to which this expectation holds given the imperfect nature of numerical models (and therefore their compromised ability to appropriately assimilate information-rich data). We show that environmental tracer observations may be of variable benefit in reducing forecast uncertainty and may induce forecast bias.
Sean W. D. Turner, Wenwei Xu, and Nathalie Voisin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1275–1291,Short summary
To understand human vulnerability to flood and drought risk across large regions, researchers increasingly use large-scale hydrological models that convert climate to river flows. These models include the important effects of river regulation by dams but do not currently capture dam operators' use of flow forecasts to mitigate risk. This research addresses this problem by developing an approach to infer the forecast horizons contributing to the operations of a large sample of dams.
Sebastian Multsch, Maarten S. Krol, Markus Pahlow, André L. C. Assunção, Alberto G. O. P. Barretto, Quirijn de Jong van Lier, and Lutz Breuer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 307–324,Short summary
Expanding irrigation in agriculture is one of Brazil's strategies to increase production. In this study the amount of water required to grow the main crops has been calculated and compared to the water that is available in rivers at least 95 % of the time. Future decisions regarding expanding irrigated cropping areas must, while intensifying production practices, consider the likely regional effects on water scarcity levels, in order to reach sustainable agricultural production.
Guillaume Bigeard, Benoit Coudert, Jonas Chirouze, Salah Er-Raki, Gilles Boulet, Eric Ceschia, and Lionel Jarlan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5033–5058,Short summary
The purpose of our work is to estimate landscape evapotranspiration (ET) fluxes over agricultural areas by relying on two surface modeling approaches with increasing complexity and input data needs. Both approaches, compared sequentially and over the entire crop cycle, showed quite similar performance except under developed vegetation and stressed conditions. This study helps lay the groundwork for exploring the complementarities between instantaneous and continuous ET mapping with TIR data.
Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Paulo Tarso Oliveira, Dulce Buchala Bicca Rodrigues, and Hoshin Vijai Gupta
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4955–4968,Short summary
We investigate the influence of anticipated climate change on water security in the Jaguari Basin, which is the main source of freshwater for 9 million people in the São Paulo metropolitan region. Our findings indicate an expansion of the basin critical period, and identify October and November as the most vulnerable months. There is an urgent need to implement efficient mitigation and adaptation policies that recognize the annual pattern of variation between insecure and secure periods.
Abraha, M., Chen, J., Hamilton, S. K., and Robertson, G. P.: Long-term evapotranspiration rates for rainfed corn versus perennial bioenergy crops in a mesic landscape, Hydrol. Process., 34, 810–822, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13630, 2020.
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: Crop evapotranspiration: guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO irrigation and drainage paper 56, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, 300 pp., ISBN 92-5-104219-5, https://www.fao.org/3/X0490E/x0490e00.htm (last access: 14 February 2022)1998.
Amante, C.: ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis, NOAA, https://doi.org/10.7289/V5C8276M, 2009.
Andarzian, B., Bannayan, M., Steduto, P., Mazraeh, H., Barati, M. E., Barati, M. A., and Rahnama, A.: Validation and testing of the AquaCrop model under full and deficit irrigated wheat production in Iran, Agricult. Water Manage., 100, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2011.08.023, 2011.
Araya, A., Kisekka, I., and Holman, J.: Evaluating deficit irrigation management strategies for grain sorghum using AquaCrop, Irrig. Sci., 34, 465–481, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00271-016-0515-7, 2016.
Baffes, J., Kshirsagar, V., and Mitchell, D.: What Drives Local Food Prices? Evidence from the Tanzanian Maize Market, The World Bank Economic Review, 33, 160–184, https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhx008, 2019.
Brown, C. E.: Applied multivariate statistics in geohydrology and related sciences, Springer, Berlin, New York, ISBN 978-3-642-80328-4, 1998.
Campbell, B. M., Beare, D. J., Bennett, E. M., Hall-Spencer, J. M., Ingram, J. S. I., Jaramillo, F., Ortiz, R., Ramankutty, N., Sayer, J. A., and Shindell, D.: Agriculture production as a major driver of the Earth system exceeding planetary boundaries, Ecol. Soc., 22, 8, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09595-220408, 2017.
Capellesso, A. J., Cazella, A. A., Schmitt Filho, A. L., Farley, J., and Martins, D. A.: Economic and environmental impacts of production intensification in agriculture: comparing transgenic, conventional, and agroecological maize crops, Agroecol. Sustain. Food Syst., 40, 215–236, https://doi.org/10.1080/21683565.2015.1128508, 2016.
Chapagain, A. K. and Hoekstra, A. Y.: The blue, green and grey water footprint of rice from production and consumption perspectives, Ecol. Econ., 70, 749–758, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.11.012, 2011.
Chukalla, A. D., Krol, M. S., and Hoekstra, A. Y.: Green and blue water footprint reduction in irrigated agriculture: effect of irrigation techniques, irrigation strategies and mulching, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4877–4891, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4877-2015, 2015.
Chukalla, A. D., Krol, M. S., and Hoekstra, A. Y.: Grey water footprint reduction in irrigated crop production: effect of nitrogen application rate, nitrogen form, tillage practice and irrigation strategy, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3245–3259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3245-2018, 2018a.
Chukalla, A. D., Krol, M. S., and Hoekstra, A. Y.: Trade-off between blue and grey water footprint of crop production at different nitrogen application rates under various field management practices, Sci. Total Environ., 626, 962–970, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.164, 2018b.
DeJonge, K. C., Ascough, J. C., Andales, A. A., Hansen, N. C., Garcia, L. A., and Arabi, M.: Improving evapotranspiration simulations in the CERES-Maize model under limited irrigation, Agricult. Water Manage., 115, 92–103, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2012.08.013, 2012.
Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Folberth, C., Müller, C., Pugh, T. A. M., Boote, K. J., Conway, D., Ruane, A. C., Gerten, D., Jones, J. W., Khabarov, N., Olin, S., Schaphoff, S., Schmid, E., Yang, H., and Rosenzweig, C.: Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 786–790, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2995, 2016.
Dias De Oliveira, M. E., Vaughan, B. E., and Rykiel, E. J.: Ethanol as Fuel: Energy, Carbon Dioxide Balances, and Ecological Footprint, BioScience, 55, 593, https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2005)055[0593:EAFECD]2.0.CO;2, 2005.
Djaman, K., O'Neill, M., Owen, C., Smeal, D., Koudahe, K., West, M., Allen, S., Lombard, K., and Irmak, S.: Crop Evapotranspiration, Irrigation Water Requirement and Water Productivity of Maize from Meteorological Data under Semiarid Climate, Water, 10, 405, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10040405, 2018.
Dlugokencky, E. and Tans, P.: Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html, last access: 14 September 2020.
Duvick, D. N.: The Contribution of Breeding to Yield Advances in maize (Zea mays L.), in: Advances in Agronomy, vol. 86, Elsevier, 83–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2113(05)86002-X, 2005.
Edreira, J. I. R., Guilpart, N., Sadras, V., Cassman, K. G., van Ittersum, M. K., Schils, R. L. M., and Grassini, P.: Water productivity of rainfed maize and wheat: A local to global perspective, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 259, 364–373, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.05.019, 2018.
Elliott, J., Müller, C., Deryng, D., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Boote, K. J., Büchner, M., Foster, I., Glotter, M., Heinke, J., Iizumi, T., Izaurralde, R. C., Mueller, N. D., Ray, D. K., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A. C., and Sheffield, J.: The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison: data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-261-2015, 2015.
Fader, M., Rost, S., Müller, C., Bondeau, A., and Gerten, D.: Virtual water content of temperate cereals and maize: Present and potential future patterns, J. Hydrol., 384, 218–231, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.12.011, 2010.
Fan, Y., Li, H., and Miguez-Macho, G.: Global Patterns of Groundwater Table Depth, Science, 339, 940–943, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1229881, 2013.
FAOSTAT: Food and agriculture data, http://www.fao.org/faostat, last access: 15 May 2021.
Feng, B., Zhuo, L., Xie, D., Mao, Y., Gao, J., Xie, P., and Wu, P.: A quantitative review of water footprint accounting and simulation for crop production based on publications during 2002–2018, Ecol. Indicat., 120, 106962, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106962, 2021.
Fletcher, R. J., Robertson, B. A., Evans, J., Doran, P. J., Alavalapati, J. R., and Schemske, D. W.: Biodiversity conservation in the era of biofuels: risks and opportunities, Front. Ecol. Environ., 9, 161–168, https://doi.org/10.1890/090091, 2011.
Folberth, C., Elliott, J., Müller, C., Balkovič, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Izaurralde, R. C., Jones, C. D., Khabarov, N., Liu, W., Reddy, A., Schmid, E., Skalský, R., Yang, H., Arneth, A., Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Lawrence, P. J., Olin, S., Pugh, T. A. M., Ruane, A. C., and Wang, X.: Parameterization-induced uncertainties and impacts of crop management harmonization in a global gridded crop model ensemble, PLoS ONE, 14, e0221862, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0221862, 2019.
Franke, J. A., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Ruane, A. C., Jägermeyr, J., Snyder, A., Dury, M., Falloon, P. D., Folberth, C., François, L., Hank, T., Izaurralde, R. C., Jacquemin, I., Jones, C., Li, M., Liu, W., Olin, S., Phillips, M., Pugh, T. A. M., Reddy, A., Williams, K., Wang, Z., Zabel, F., and Moyer, E. J.: The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators: global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3995–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020, 2020.
Gardiol, J. M., Serio, L. A., and Della Maggiora, A. I.: Modelling evapotranspiration of corn (Zea mays) under different plant densities, J. Hydrol., 271, 188–196, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00347-5, 2003.
Giordano, M. A., Rijsberman, F. R., Saleth, R. M., and International Water Management Institute (Eds.): More crop per drop: revisiting a research paradigm: results and synthesis of IWMI's research, 1996–2005, IWA Pub, London, UK, 273 pp., ISBN 978-1-84339-112-8, 2006.
Greaves, G. and Wang, Y.-M.: Assessment of FAO AquaCrop Model for Simulating Maize Growth and Productivity under Deficit Irrigation in a Tropical Environment, Water, 8, 557, https://doi.org/10.3390/w8120557, 2016.
Greve, P., Kahil, T., Mochizuki, J., Schinko, T., Satoh, Y., Burek, P., Fischer, G., Tramberend, S., Burtscher, R., Langan, S., and Wada, Y.: Global assessment of water challenges under uncertainty in water scarcity projections, Nat. Sustain., 1, 486–494, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0134-9, 2018.
Grosso, C., Manoli, G., Martello, M., Chemin, Y., Pons, D., Teatini, P., Piccoli, I., and Morari, F.: Mapping Maize Evapotranspiration at Field Scale Using SEBAL: A Comparison with the FAO Method and Soil-Plant Model Simulations, Remote Sens., 10, 1452, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10091452, 2018.
Han, C., Zhang, B., Chen, H., Liu, Y., and Wei, Z.: Novel approach of upscaling the FAO AquaCrop model into regional scale by using distributed crop parameters derived from remote sensing data, Agricult. Water Manage., 240, 106288, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106288, 2020.
Hoekstra, A. Y. (Ed.): The water footprint assessment manual: setting the global standard, Earthscan, London, Washington, DC, 203 pp., ISBN 978-1-84971-279-8, 2011.
Hoekstra, A. Y.: Green-blue water accounting in a soil water balance, Adv. Water Resour., 129, 112–117, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.05.012, 2019.
Hoekstra, A. Y. and Mekonnen, M. M.: The water footprint of humanity, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 3232–3237, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1109936109, 2012.
Hoekstra, A. Y., Booij, M. J., Hunink, J. C., and Meijer, K. S.: Blue water footprint of agriculture, industry, households and water management in the Netherlands: An exploration of using the Netherlands Hydrological Instrument, Unesco – IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands, https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2276.3043, 2012a.
Hoekstra, A. Y., Mekonnen, M. M., Chapagain, A. K., Mathews, R. E., and Richter, B. D.: Global Monthly Water Scarcity: Blue Water Footprints versus Blue Water Availability, PLoS ONE, 7, e32688, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0032688, 2012b.
Hoffmann, M. P., Haakana, M., Asseng, S., Höhn, J. G., Palosuo, T., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Fronzek, S., Ewert, F., Gaiser, T., Kassie, B. T., Paff, K., Rezaei, E. E., Rodríguez, A., Semenov, M., Srivastava, A. K., Stratonovitch, P., Tao, F., Chen, Y., and Rötter, R. P.: How does inter-annual variability of attainable yield affect the magnitude of yield gaps for wheat and maize? An analysis at ten sites, Agricult. Syst., 159, 199–208, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.03.012, 2018.
Hogeboom, R. J., Bruin, D., Schyns, J. F., Krol, M. S., and Hoekstra, A. Y.: Capping Human Water Footprints in the World's River Basins, Earth's Future, 8, e2019EF001363, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001363, 2020.
Hsiao, T. C., Heng, L., Steduto, P., Rojas-Lara, B., Raes, D., and Fereres, E.: AquaCrop-The FAO Crop Model to Simulate Yield Response to Water: III. Parameterization and Testing for Maize, Agron. J., 101, 448–459, https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2008.0218s, 2009.
Huang, J., Scherer, L., Lan, K., Chen, F., and Thorp, K. R.: Advancing the application of a model-independent open-source geospatial tool for national-scale spatiotemporal simulations, Environ. Model. Softw., 119, 374–378, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.07.003, 2019.
Hussain, Md. and Mahmud, I.: pyMannKendall: a python package for non parametric Mann Kendall family of trend tests, J. Open Source Softw., 4, 1556, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.01556, 2019.
Iizumi, T., Luo, J.-J., Challinor, A. J., Sakurai, G., Yokozawa, M., Sakuma, H., Brown, M. E., and Yamagata, T.: Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops, Nat. Commun., 5, 3712, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4712, 2014.
Immerzeel, D. J., Verweij, P. A., van der Hilst, F., and Faaij, A. P. C.: Biodiversity impacts of bioenergy crop production: a state-of-the-art review, GCB Bioenergy, 6, 183–209, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12067, 2014.
Irmak, S. and Djaman, K.: Effects of Planting Date and Density on Plant Growth, Yield, Evapotranspiration, and Water Productivity of Subsurface Drip-Irrigated and Rainfed Maize, T. ASABE, 59, 1235–1256, https://doi.org/10.13031/trans.59.11169, 2016.
ISIMIP: ISIMIP3 simulation protocol, https://protocol.isimip.org/protocol/ISIMIP3b/agriculture.html, last access: 14 September 2020.
Jägermeyr, J., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Schaphoff, S., Kummu, M., and Lucht, W.: Water savings potentials of irrigation systems: global simulation of processes and linkages, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3073–3091, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3073-2015, 2015.
Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Ruane, A. C., Elliott, J., Balkovic, J., Castillo, O., Faye, B., Foster, I., Folberth, C., Franke, J. A., Fuchs, K., Guarin, J. R., Heinke, J., Hoogenboom, G., Iizumi, T., Jain, A. K., Kelly, D., Khabarov, N., Lange, S., Lin, T.-S., Liu, W., Mialyk, O., Minoli, S., Moyer, E. J., Okada, M., Phillips, M., Porter, C., Rabin, S. S., Scheer, C., Schneider, J. M., Schyns, J. F., Skalsky, R., Smerald, A., Stella, T., Stephens, H., Webber, H., Zabel, F., and Rosenzweig, C.: Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models, Nat. Food, 2, 873–885, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y, 2021a.
Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Minoli, S., Ray, D., and Siebert, S.: GGCMI Phase 3 crop calendar, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.5062513, 2021b.
Jaramillo, F. and Destouni, G.: Local flow regulation and irrigation raise global human water consumption and footprint, Science, 350, 1248–1251, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad1010, 2015.
Karandish, F. and Hoekstra, A.: Informing National Food and Water Security Policy through Water Footprint Assessment: the Case of Iran, Water, 9, 831, https://doi.org/10.3390/w9110831, 2017.
Kelly, T. D. and Foster, T.: AquaCrop-OSPy: Bridging the gap between research and practice in crop-water modeling, Agricult. Water Manage., 254, 106976, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.106976, 2021.
Khoshravesh, M., Mostafazadeh-Fard, B., Heidarpour, M., and Kiani, A.-R.: AquaCrop model simulation under different irrigation water and nitrogen strategies, Water Sci. Technol., 67, 232–238, https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2012.564, 2013.
Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E.: Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 927–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-927-2017, 2017.
Kucharik, C. J. and Ramankutty, N.: Trends and Variability in U.S. Corn Yields Over the Twentieth Century, Earth Interact., 9, 1–29, https://doi.org/10.1175/EI098.1, 2005.
Lange, S.: WFDE5 over land merged with ERA5 over the ocean (W5E5 v1.0) (1.0), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2019.023, 2019.
Licker, R., Johnston, M., Foley, J. A., Barford, C., Kucharik, C. J., Monfreda, C., and Ramankutty, N.: Mind the gap: how do climate and agricultural management explain the `yield gap' of croplands around the world: Investigating drivers of global crop yield patterns, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 19, 769–782, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00563.x, 2010.
Liu, J., Zehnder, A. J. B., and Yang, H.: Global consumptive water use for crop production: The importance of green water and virtual water: Global Consumptive Water Use, Water Resour. Res., 45, W05428, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006051, 2009.
Liu, W., Yang, H., Folberth, C., Wang, X., Luo, Q., and Schulin, R.: Global investigation of impacts of PET methods on simulating crop-water relations for maize, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 221, 164–175, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.02.017, 2016.
Liu, W., Antonelli, M., Liu, X., and Yang, H.: Towards improvement of grey water footprint assessment: With an illustration for global maize cultivation, J. Clean. Product., 147, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.01.072, 2017.
Lorenz, A. J., Gustafson, T. J., Coors, J. G., and de Leon, N.: Breeding Maize for a Bioeconomy: A Literature Survey Examining Harvest Index and Stover Yield and Their Relationship to Grain Yield, Crop Sci., 50, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.2135/cropsci2009.02.0086, 2010.
Lorite, I. J., García-Vila, M., Santos, C., Ruiz-Ramos, M., and Fereres, E.: AquaData and AquaGIS: Two computer utilities for temporal and spatial simulations of water-limited yield with AquaCrop, Comput. Electron. Agricult., 96, 227–237, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2013.05.010, 2013.
Lovarelli, D., Bacenetti, J., and Fiala, M.: Water Footprint of crop productions: A review, Sci. Total Environ., 548, 236–251, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.01.022, 2016.
Maniruzzaman, M., Talukder, M. S. U., Khan, M. H., Biswas, J. C., and Nemes, A.: Validation of the AquaCrop model for irrigated rice production under varied water regimes in Bangladesh, Agricult. Water Manage., 159, 331–340, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2015.06.022, 2015.
Marenya, P. P., Kassie, M. B., Jaleta, M. D., and Rahut, D. B.: Maize Market Participation among Female- and Male-Headed Households in Ethiopia, J. Develop. Stud., 53, 481–494, https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2016.1171849, 2017.
Mekonnen, M. M. and Hoekstra, A. Y.: A global and high-resolution assessment of the green, blue and grey water footprint of wheat, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1259–1276, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1259-2010, 2010.
Mekonnen, M. M. and Hoekstra, A. Y.: The green, blue and grey water footprint of crops and derived crop products, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1577–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1577-2011, 2011.
Mekonnen, M. M. and Hoekstra, A. Y.: Water footprint benchmarks for crop production: A first global assessment, Ecol. Indicat., 46, 214–223, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.06.013, 2014.
Mekonnen, M. M. and Hoekstra, A. Y.: Four billion people facing severe water scarcity, Sci. Adv., 2, e1500323, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500323, 2016.
Mekonnen, M. M. and Hoekstra, A. Y.: Sustainability of the blue water footprint of crops, Adv. Water Resour., 143, 103679, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2020.103679, 2020.
Minoli, S., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Ruane, A. C., Jägermeyr, J., Zabel, F., Dury, M., Folberth, C., François, L., Hank, T., Jacquemin, I., Liu, W., Olin, S., and Pugh, T. A. M.: Global Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation, Earth's Future, 7, 1464–1480, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001130, 2019.
Mmbando, F. E., Wale, E. Z., and Baiyegunhi, L. J. S.: Welfare impacts of smallholder farmers' participation in maize and pigeonpea markets in Tanzania, Food Sec., 7, 1211–1224, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-015-0519-9, 2015.
Mueller, N. D., Gerber, J. S., Johnston, M., Ray, D. K., Ramankutty, N., and Foley, J. A.: Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management, Nature, 490, 254–257, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11420, 2012.
Müller, C., Elliott, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J., Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Folberth, C., Glotter, M., Hoek, S., Iizumi, T., Izaurralde, R. C., Jones, C., Khabarov, N., Lawrence, P., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T. A. M., Ray, D. K., Reddy, A., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A. C., Sakurai, G., Schmid, E., Skalsky, R., Song, C. X., Wang, X., de Wit, A., and Yang, H.: Global gridded crop model evaluation: benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1403–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017, 2017.
Nachtergaele, F. O., van Velthuizen, H., Verelst, L., Batjes, N. H., Dijkshoorn, J. A., van Engelen, V. W. P., Fischer, G., Jones, A., Montanarella, L., Petri, M., Prieler, S., Teixeira, E., Wilberg, D., and Shi, X.: Harmonized World Soil Database (version 1.0), http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/nr/documents/HWSD/HWSD_Documentation.pdf (last access: 14 February 2022), 2008.
Nagore, M. L., Echarte, L., Andrade, F. H., and Della Maggiora, A.: Crop evapotranspiration in Argentinean maize hybrids released in different decades, Field Crops Res., 155, 23–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2013.09.026, 2014.
Neumann, K., Verburg, P. H., Stehfest, E., and Müller, C.: The yield gap of global grain production: A spatial analysis, Agricult. Syst., 103, 316–326, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2010.02.004, 2010.
Osborne, T. M. and Wheeler, T. R.: Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 024001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024001, 2013.
Portmann, F. T., Siebert, S., and Döll, P.: MIRCA2000-Global monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000: A new high-resolution data set for agricultural and hydrological modeling: Monthly Irrigated And Rainfed Crop Areas, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 24, GB1011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003435, 2010.
QGIS: A Free and Open Source Geographic Information System, https://qgis.org/en/site/, last access: 16 June 2021.
Raes, D., Steduto, P., Hsiao, T. C., and Fereres, E.: AquaCrop-The FAO Crop Model to Simulate Yield Response to Water: II. Main Algorithms and Software Description, Agron. J., 101, 438–447, https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2008.0140s, 2009.
Raes, D., Steduto, P., Hsiao, T. C., and Fereres, E.: AquaCrop Version 6.0 – 6.1: Reference manual (Annexes), Rome, https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/BR244E (last access: 14 February 2022), 2018.
Ranum, P., Peña-Rosas, J. P., and Garcia-Casal, M. N.: Global maize production, utilization, and consumption, Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci., 1312, 105–112, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.12396, 2014.
Rippey, B. R.: The U.S. drought of 2012, Weather Clim. Extrem., 10, 57–64, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.10.004, 2015.
Rosenzweig, C., Jones, J. W., Hatfield, J. L., Ruane, A. C., Boote, K. J., Thorburn, P., Antle, J. M., Nelson, G. C., Porter, C., Janssen, S., Asseng, S., Basso, B., Ewert, F., Wallach, D., Baigorria, G., and Winter, J. M.: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 170, 166–182, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.011, 2013.
Ruane, A., Antle, J., Elliott, J., Folberth, C., Hoogenboom, G., Mason-D'Croz, D., Müller, C., Porter, C., Phillips, M., Raymundo, R., Sands, R., Valdivia, R., White, J., Wiebe, K., and Rosenzweig, C.: Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of +1.5∘ and +2.0 ∘C global warming using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments, Clim. Res., 76, 17–39, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01520, 2018.
Rudnick, D. R., Irmak, S., Djaman, K., and Sharma, V.: Impact of irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer rate on soil water trends and maize evapotranspiration during the vegetative and reproductive periods, Agr. Water Manage., 191, 77–84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2017.06.007, 2017.
Rusinamhodzi, L., Corbeels, M., Nyamangara, J., and Giller, K. E.: Maize–grain legume intercropping is an attractive option for ecological intensification that reduces climatic risk for smallholder farmers in central Mozambique, Field Crops Res., 136, 12–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2012.07.014, 2012.
Saxton, K. E. and Rawls, W. J.: Soil Water Characteristic Estimates by Texture and Organic Matter for Hydrologic Solutions, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 70, 1569–1578, https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj2005.0117, 2006.
Schyns, J. F., Hoekstra, A. Y., Booij, M. J., Hogeboom, R. J., and Mekonnen, M. M.: Limits to the world's green water resources for food, feed, fiber, timber, and bioenergy, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 4893–4898, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817380116, 2019.
Siebert, S. and Döll, P.: Quantifying blue and green virtual water contents in global crop production as well as potential production losses without irrigation, J. Hydrol., 384, 198–217, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.031, 2010.
Siebert, S., Kummu, M., Porkka, M., Döll, P., Ramankutty, N., and Scanlon, B. R.: A global data set of the extent of irrigated land from 1900 to 2005, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1521–1545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1521-2015, 2015.
Smale, M., Byerlee, D., and Jayne, T.: Maize Revolutions in Sub-Saharan Africa, The World Bank, https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-5659, 2011.
Steduto, P., Hsiao, T. C., Raes, D., and Fereres, E.: AquaCrop-The FAO Crop Model to Simulate Yield Response to Water: I. Concepts and Underlying Principles, Agron. J., 101, 426–437, https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2008.0139s, 2009.
Suyker, A. E. and Verma, S. B.: Evapotranspiration of irrigated and rainfed maize–soybean cropping systems, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 149, 443–452, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.09.010, 2009.
Tuninetti, M., Tamea, S., D'Odorico, P., Laio, F., and Ridolfi, L.: Global sensitivity of high-resolution estimates of crop water footprint, Water Resour. Res., 51, 8257–8272, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017148, 2015.
UNSD: Standard country or area codes for statistical use (M49), https://unstats.un.org/unsd/methodology/m49/, last access: 3 June 2021.
Vanuytrecht, E., Raes, D., Steduto, P., Hsiao, T. C., Fereres, E., Heng, L. K., Garcia Vila, M., and Mejias Moreno, P.: AquaCrop: FAO's crop water productivity and yield response model, Environ. Model. Softw., 62, 351–360, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.08.005, 2014.
Verones, F., Pfister, S., van Zelm, R., and Hellweg, S.: Biodiversity impacts from water consumption on a global scale for use in life cycle assessment, Int. J. Life Cy. Assess., 22, 1247–1256, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11367-016-1236-0, 2017.
Wada, Y. and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Sustainability of global water use: past reconstruction and future projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 104003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104003, 2014.
Wallington, T. J., Anderson, J. E., Mueller, S. A., Kolinski Morris, E., Winkler, S. L., Ginder, J. M., and Nielsen, O. J.: Corn Ethanol Production, Food Exports, and Indirect Land Use Change, Environ. Sci. Technol., 46, 6379–6384, https://doi.org/10.1021/es300233m, 2012.
Woo-Cumings, M.: The political ecology of famine: The North Korean catastrophe and its lessons, ADBI Research Paper Series No. 31, https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/157182/adbi-rp31.pdf (last access: 14 February 2022), 2002.
Xu, G., Xue, X., Wang, P., Yang, Z., Yuan, W., Liu, X., and Lou, C.: A lysimeter study for the effects of different canopy sizes on evapotranspiration and crop coefficient of summer maize, Agricult. Water Manage., 208, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2018.04.040, 2018.
Yang, Q. and Chen, G. Q.: Greenhouse gas emissions of corn–ethanol production in China, Ecol. Model., 252, 176–184, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.07.011, 2013.
Yu, Q., You, L., Wood-Sichra, U., Ru, Y., Joglekar, A. K. B., Fritz, S., Xiong, W., Lu, M., Wu, W., and Yang, P.: A cultivated planet in 2010 – Part 2: The global gridded agricultural-production maps, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3545–3572, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3545-2020, 2020.
Zabel, F., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Minoli, S., Jägermeyr, J., Schneider, J. M., Franke, J. A., Moyer, E., Dury, M., Francois, L., Folberth, C., Liu, W., Pugh, T. A. M., Olin, S., Rabin, S. S., Mauser, W., Hank, T., Ruane, A. C., and Asseng, S.: Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties, Global Change Biol., 27, 3870–3882, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15649, 2021.
Zhuo, L., Mekonnen, M. M., Hoekstra, A. Y., and Wada, Y.: Inter- and intra-annual variation of water footprint of crops and blue water scarcity in the Yellow River basin (1961–2009), Adv. Water Resour., 87, 29–41, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.11.002, 2016.
As the global demand for crops is increasing, it is vital to understand spatial and temporal patterns of crop water footprints (WFs). Previous studies looked into spatial patterns but not into temporal ones. Here, we present a new process-based gridded crop model to simulate WFs and apply it for maize in 1986–2016. We show that despite the average unit WF reduction (−35 %), the global WF of maize production has increased (+50 %), which might harm ecosystems and human livelihoods in some regions.
As the global demand for crops is increasing, it is vital to understand spatial and temporal...