Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-571-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-571-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Feb 2022
Research article |
| 02 Feb 2022
| 02 Feb 2022
Future projections of High Atlas snowpack and runoff under climate change
Alexandre Tuel
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 15 Vassar St., Cambridge, 02139, USA
current affiliation: Institute of Geography, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Nabil El Moçayd
International Water Research Institute, University Mohammed VI Polytechnique, Lot 660 Hay Moulay Rachid, 43150 Ben Guerir, Morocco
Moulay Driss Hasnaoui
Ministry of Equipment, Transport, Logistics and Water, Department of Water, Rabat, Morocco
Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 15 Vassar St., Cambridge, 02139, USA
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Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 263–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, 2024
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Warm and cold spells often have damaging consequences for agriculture, power demand, human health and infrastructure, especially when they occur over large areas and persist for a week or more. Here, we split the Northern Hemisphere extratropics into coherent regions where 3-week warm and cold spells in winter and summer are associated with the same large-scale circulation patterns. To understand their physical drivers, we analyse the associated circulation and temperature budget anomalies.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 955–987, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-955-2023, 2023
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Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales has been a topic of research since the early days of meteorology. Stationary or recurrent behavior are common features of weather dynamics and are strongly related to fundamental physical processes, weather predictability and surface weather impacts. In this review, we propose a typology for the broad concepts related to persistence and discuss various methods that have been used to characterize persistence in weather data.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
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Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Alexandre Tuel, Bettina Schaefli, Jakob Zscheischler, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2649–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, 2022
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River discharge is strongly influenced by the temporal structure of precipitation. Here, we show how extreme precipitation events that occur a few days or weeks after a previous event have a larger effect on river discharge than events occurring in isolation. Windows of 2 weeks or less between events have the most impact. Similarly, periods of persistent high discharge tend to be associated with the occurrence of several extreme precipitation events in close succession.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2949–2972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2949-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2949-2021, 2021
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Extreme river discharge may be triggered by large accumulations of precipitation over short time periods, which can result from the successive occurrence of extreme-precipitation events. We find a distinct spatiotemporal pattern in the temporal clustering behavior of precipitation extremes over Switzerland, with clustering occurring on the northern side of the Alps in winter and on their southern side in fall. Clusters tend to be followed by extreme discharge, particularly in the southern Alps.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 263–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, 2024
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Warm and cold spells often have damaging consequences for agriculture, power demand, human health and infrastructure, especially when they occur over large areas and persist for a week or more. Here, we split the Northern Hemisphere extratropics into coherent regions where 3-week warm and cold spells in winter and summer are associated with the same large-scale circulation patterns. To understand their physical drivers, we analyse the associated circulation and temperature budget anomalies.
Bouchra Zellou, Nabil El Moçayd, and El Houcine Bergou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3543–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, 2023
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In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 955–987, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-955-2023, 2023
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Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales has been a topic of research since the early days of meteorology. Stationary or recurrent behavior are common features of weather dynamics and are strongly related to fundamental physical processes, weather predictability and surface weather impacts. In this review, we propose a typology for the broad concepts related to persistence and discuss various methods that have been used to characterize persistence in weather data.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
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Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Alexandre Tuel, Bettina Schaefli, Jakob Zscheischler, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2649–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, 2022
Short summary
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River discharge is strongly influenced by the temporal structure of precipitation. Here, we show how extreme precipitation events that occur a few days or weeks after a previous event have a larger effect on river discharge than events occurring in isolation. Windows of 2 weeks or less between events have the most impact. Similarly, periods of persistent high discharge tend to be associated with the occurrence of several extreme precipitation events in close succession.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2949–2972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2949-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2949-2021, 2021
Short summary
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Extreme river discharge may be triggered by large accumulations of precipitation over short time periods, which can result from the successive occurrence of extreme-precipitation events. We find a distinct spatiotemporal pattern in the temporal clustering behavior of precipitation extremes over Switzerland, with clustering occurring on the northern side of the Alps in winter and on their southern side in fall. Clusters tend to be followed by extreme discharge, particularly in the southern Alps.
Narjiss Satour, Otmane Raji, Nabil El Moçayd, Ilias Kacimi, and Nadia Kassou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1101–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1101-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1101-2021, 2021
Nabil El Moçayd, Suchul Kang, and Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1467–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1467-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1467-2020, 2020
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The present work addresses the impact of climate change on the Water Highway project in Morocco. This project aims to transfer 860 × 106 m3 yr−1 of water from the north to the south. As the project is very sensitive to the availability of water in the northern regions, we evaluate its feasibility under different future climate change scenarios: under a pessimistic climate scenario, the project is infeasible; however, under an optimistic scenario a rescaled version might be feasible.
Related subject area
Subject: Snow and Ice | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
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The application and modification of WRF-Hydro/Glacier to a cold-based Antarctic glacier
Spatio-temporal information propagation using sparse observations in hyper-resolution ensemble-based snow data assimilation
Simulated hydrological effects of grooming and snowmaking in a ski resort on the local water balance
Spatial distribution and controls of snowmelt runoff in a sublimation-dominated environment in the semiarid Andes of Chile
Snow data assimilation for seasonal streamflow supply prediction in mountainous basins
Canopy structure, topography, and weather are equally important drivers of small-scale snow cover dynamics in sub-alpine forests
Climate sensitivity of the summer runoff of two glacierised Himalayan catchments with contrasting climate
A snow and glacier hydrological model for large catchments – case study for the Naryn River, central Asia
Precipitation biases and snow physics limitations drive the uncertainties in macroscale modeled snow water equivalent
Development and parameter estimation of snowmelt models using spatial snow-cover observations from MODIS
Recent hydrological response of glaciers in the Canadian Rockies to changing climate and glacier configuration
Trends and variability in snowmelt in China under climate change
Assimilation of citizen science data in snowpack modeling using a new snow data set: Community Snow Observations
Snowpack dynamics in the Lebanese mountains from quasi-dynamically downscaled ERA5 reanalysis updated by assimilating remotely sensed fractional snow-covered area
The evaluation of the potential of global data products for snow hydrological modelling in ungauged high-alpine catchments
Learning about precipitation lapse rates from snow course data improves water balance modeling
Snow water equivalents exclusively from snow depths and their temporal changes: the Δsnow model
Application of machine learning techniques for regional bias correction of snow water equivalent estimates in Ontario, Canada
Sensitivity of snow models to the accuracy of meteorological forcings in mountain environments
Snow processes in mountain forests: interception modeling for coarse-scale applications
Satellite-derived products of solar and longwave irradiances used for snowpack modelling in mountainous terrain
Using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data to derive corrections to precipitation data sets and improve modelled snow mass at high latitudes
The role of liquid water percolation representation in estimating snow water equivalent in a Mediterranean mountain region (Mount Lebanon)
Hyper-resolution ensemble-based snow reanalysis in mountain regions using clustering
The sensitivity of modeled snow accumulation and melt to precipitation phase methods across a climatic gradient
Assessment of SWAT spatial and temporal transferability for a high-altitude glacierized catchment
Modeling experiments on seasonal lake ice mass and energy balance in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau: a case study
A simple model for local-scale sensible and latent heat advection contributions to snowmelt
Assimilation of passive microwave AMSR-2 satellite observations in a snowpack evolution model over northeastern Canada
A simple temperature-based method to estimate heterogeneous frozen ground within a distributed watershed model
Technical note: Representing glacier geometry changes in a semi-distributed hydrological model
Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach
Scenario approach for the seasonal forecast of Kharif flows from the Upper Indus Basin
The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments
Modelling hydrologic impacts of light absorbing aerosol deposition on snow at the catchment scale
Liquid water infiltration into a layered snowpack: evaluation of a 3-D water transport model with laboratory experiments
Assessing glacier melt contribution to streamflow at Universidad Glacier, central Andes of Chile
Modelling liquid water transport in snow under rain-on-snow conditions – considering preferential flow
Developing a representative snow-monitoring network in a forested mountain watershed
Subgrid parameterization of snow distribution at a Mediterranean site using terrestrial photography
Assessing the benefit of snow data assimilation for runoff modeling in Alpine catchments
Stable oxygen isotope variability in two contrasting glacier river catchments in Greenland
Spatio-temporal variability of snow water equivalent in the extra-tropical Andes Cordillera from distributed energy balance modeling and remotely sensed snow cover
A conceptual, distributed snow redistribution model
Diagnostic calibration of a hydrological model in a mountain area by hydrograph partitioning
Meltwater run-off from Haig Glacier, Canadian Rocky Mountains, 2002–2013
Modeling the snow surface temperature with a one-layer energy balance snowmelt model
Estimating degree-day factors from MODIS for snowmelt runoff modeling
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Yu Zhu, Shiyin Liu, Ben W. Brock, Lide Tian, Ying Yi, Fuming Xie, Donghui Shangguan, and Yiyuan Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2023–2045, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2023-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2023-2024, 2024
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This modeling-based study focused on Batura Glacier from 2000 to 2020, revealing that debris alters its energy budget, affecting mass balance. We propose that the presence of debris on the glacier surface effectively reduces the amount of latent heat available for ablation, which creates a favorable condition for Batura Glacier's relatively low negative mass balance. Batura Glacier shows a trend toward a less negative mass balance due to reduced ablation.
Tamara Pletzer, Jonathan P. Conway, Nicolas J. Cullen, Trude Eidhammer, and Marwan Katurji
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 459–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-459-2024, 2024
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We applied a glacier and hydrology model in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) to model the start and duration of melt over a summer in this extreme polar desert. To do so, we found it necessary to prevent the drainage of melt into ice and optimize the albedo scheme. We show that simulating albedo (for the first time in the MDV) is critical to modelling the feedbacks of albedo, snowfall and melt in the region. This paper is a first step towards more complex spatial modelling of melt and streamflow.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Norbert Pirk, Marco Mazzolini, Désirée Treichler, Paul Leclercq, Sebastian Westermann, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Simon Gascoin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4637–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, 2023
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Here we explore how to improve hyper-resolution (5 m) distributed snowpack simulations using sparse observations, which do not provide information from all the areas of the simulation domain. We propose a new way of propagating information throughout the simulations adapted to the hyper-resolution, which could also be used to improve simulations of other nature. The method has been implemented in an open-source data assimilation tool that is readily accessible to everyone.
Samuel Morin, Hugues François, Marion Réveillet, Eric Sauquet, Louise Crochemore, Flora Branger, Étienne Leblois, and Marie Dumont
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4257–4277, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4257-2023, 2023
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Ski resorts are a key socio-economic asset of several mountain areas. Grooming and snowmaking are routinely used to manage the snow cover on ski pistes, but despite vivid debate, little is known about their impact on water resources downstream. This study quantifies, for the pilot ski resort La Plagne in the French Alps, the impact of grooming and snowmaking on downstream river flow. Hydrological impacts are mostly apparent at the seasonal scale and rather neutral on the annual scale.
Álvaro Ayala, Simone Schauwecker, and Shelley MacDonell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3463–3484, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3463-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3463-2023, 2023
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As the climate of the semiarid Andes is very dry, much of the seasonal snowpack is lost to the atmosphere through sublimation. We propose that snowmelt runoff originates from specific areas that we define as snowmelt hotspots. We estimate that snowmelt hotspots produce half of the snowmelt runoff in a small study catchment but represent about a quarter of the total area. Snowmelt hotspots may be important for groundwater recharge, rock glaciers, and mountain peatlands.
Sammy Metref, Emmanuel Cosme, Matthieu Le Lay, and Joël Gailhard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2283–2299, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2283-2023, 2023
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Predicting the seasonal streamflow supply of water in a mountainous basin is critical to anticipating the operation of hydroelectric dams and avoiding hydrology-related hazard. This quantity partly depends on the snowpack accumulated during winter. The study addresses this prediction problem using information from streamflow data and both direct and indirect snow measurements. In this study, the prediction is improved by integrating the data information into a basin-scale hydrological model.
Giulia Mazzotti, Clare Webster, Louis Quéno, Bertrand Cluzet, and Tobias Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2099–2121, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2099-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2099-2023, 2023
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This study analyses snow cover evolution in mountainous forested terrain based on 2 m resolution simulations from a process-based model. We show that snow accumulation patterns are controlled by canopy structure, but topographic shading modulates the timing of melt onset, and variability in weather can cause snow accumulation and melt patterns to vary between years. These findings advance our ability to predict how snow regimes will react to rising temperatures and forest disturbances.
Sourav Laha, Argha Banerjee, Ajit Singh, Parmanand Sharma, and Meloth Thamban
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 627–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-627-2023, 2023
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A model study of two Himalayan catchments reveals that the summer runoff from the glacierized parts of the catchments responds strongly to temperature forcing and is insensitive to precipitation forcing. The runoff from the non-glacierized parts has the exact opposite behaviour. The interannual variability and decadal changes of runoff under a warming climate is determined by the response of glaciers to temperature forcing and that of off-glacier areas to precipitation perturbations.
Sarah Shannon, Anthony Payne, Jim Freer, Gemma Coxon, Martina Kauzlaric, David Kriegel, and Stephan Harrison
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 453–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-453-2023, 2023
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Climate change poses a potential threat to water supply in glaciated river catchments. In this study, we added a snowmelt and glacier melt model to the Dynamic fluxEs and ConnectIvity for Predictions of HydRology model (DECIPHeR). The model is applied to the Naryn River catchment in central Asia and is found to reproduce past change discharge and the spatial extent of seasonal snow cover well.
Eunsang Cho, Carrie M. Vuyovich, Sujay V. Kumar, Melissa L. Wrzesien, Rhae Sung Kim, and Jennifer M. Jacobs
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5721–5735, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5721-2022, 2022
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While land surface models are a common approach for estimating macroscale snow water equivalent (SWE), the SWE accuracy is often limited by uncertainties in model physics and forcing inputs. In this study, we found large underestimations of modeled SWE compared to observations. Precipitation forcings and melting physics limitations dominantly contribute to the SWE underestimations. Results provide insights into prioritizing strategies to improve the SWE simulations for hydrologic applications.
Dhiraj Raj Gyawali and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3055–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3055-2022, 2022
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In this study, different extensions of the degree-day model were calibrated on snow-cover distribution against freely available satellite snow-cover images. The calibrated models simulated the distribution very well in Baden-Württemberg (Germany) and Switzerland. In addition to reliable identification of snow cover, the melt outputs from the calibrated models were able to improve the flow simulations in different catchments in the study region.
Dhiraj Pradhananga and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2605–2616, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2605-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2605-2022, 2022
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This study considers the combined impacts of climate and glacier changes due to recession on the hydrology and water balance of two high-elevation glaciers. Peyto and Athabasca glacier basins in the Canadian Rockies have undergone continuous glacier loss over the last 3 to 5 decades, leading to an increase in ice exposure and changes to the elevation and slope of the glacier surfaces. Streamflow from these glaciers continues to increase more due to climate warming than glacier recession.
Yong Yang, Rensheng Chen, Guohua Liu, Zhangwen Liu, and Xiqiang Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 305–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-305-2022, 2022
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A comprehensive assessment of snowmelt is missing for China. Trends and variability in snowmelt in China under climate change are investigated using historical precipitation and temperature data (1951–2017) and projection scenarios (2006–2099). The snowmelt and snowmelt runoff ratio show significant spatial and temporal variability in China. The spatial variability in snowmelt changes may lead to regional differences in the impact of snowmelt on the water supply.
Ryan L. Crumley, David F. Hill, Katreen Wikstrom Jones, Gabriel J. Wolken, Anthony A. Arendt, Christina M. Aragon, Christopher Cosgrove, and Community Snow Observations Participants
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4651–4680, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4651-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4651-2021, 2021
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In this study, we use a new snow data set collected by participants in the Community Snow Observations project in coastal Alaska to improve snow depth and snow water equivalence simulations from a snow process model. We validate our simulations with multiple datasets, taking advantage of snow telemetry (SNOTEL), snow depth and snow water equivalence, and remote sensing measurements. Our results demonstrate that assimilating citizen science snow depth measurements can improve model performance.
Esteban Alonso-González, Ethan Gutmann, Kristoffer Aalstad, Abbas Fayad, Marine Bouchet, and Simon Gascoin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4455–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4455-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4455-2021, 2021
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Snow water resources represent a key hydrological resource for the Mediterranean regions, where most of the precipitation falls during the winter months. This is the case for Lebanon, where snowpack represents 31 % of the spring flow. We have used models to generate snow information corrected by means of remote sensing snow cover retrievals. Our results highlight the high temporal variability in the snowpack in Lebanon and its sensitivity to further warming caused by its hypsography.
Michael Weber, Franziska Koch, Matthias Bernhardt, and Karsten Schulz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2869–2894, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2869-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2869-2021, 2021
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We compared a suite of globally available meteorological and DEM data with in situ data for physically based snow hydrological modelling in a small high-alpine catchment. Although global meteorological data were less suited to describe the snowpack properly, transferred station data from a similar location in the vicinity and substituting single variables with global products performed well. In addition, using 30 m global DEM products as model input was useful in such complex terrain.
Francesco Avanzi, Giulia Ercolani, Simone Gabellani, Edoardo Cremonese, Paolo Pogliotti, Gianluca Filippa, Umberto Morra di Cella, Sara Ratto, Hervè Stevenin, Marco Cauduro, and Stefano Juglair
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2109–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2109-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2109-2021, 2021
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Precipitation tends to increase with elevation, but the magnitude and distribution of this enhancement remain poorly understood. By leveraging over 11 000 spatially distributed, manual measurements of snow depth (snow courses) upstream of two reservoirs in the western European Alps, we show that these courses bear a characteristic signature of orographic precipitation. This opens a window of opportunity for improved modeling accuracy and, ultimately, our understanding of the water budget.
Michael Winkler, Harald Schellander, and Stefanie Gruber
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1165–1187, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1165-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1165-2021, 2021
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A new method to calculate the mass of snow is provided. It is quite simple but gives surprisingly good results. The new approach only requires regular snow depth observations to simulate respective water mass that is stored in the snow. It is called
ΔSNOW model, its code is freely available, and it can be applied in various climates. The method is especially interesting for studies on extremes (e.g., snow loads or flooding) and climate (e.g., precipitation trends).
Fraser King, Andre R. Erler, Steven K. Frey, and Christopher G. Fletcher
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4887–4902, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4887-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4887-2020, 2020
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Snow is a critical contributor to our water and energy budget, with impacts on flooding and water resource management. Measuring the amount of snow on the ground each year is an expensive and time-consuming task. Snow models and gridded products help to fill these gaps, yet there exist considerable uncertainties associated with their estimates. We demonstrate that machine learning techniques are able to reduce biases in these products to provide more realistic snow estimates across Ontario.
Silvia Terzago, Valentina Andreoli, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Lorenzo Campo, Claudio Cassardo, Edoardo Cremonese, Daniele Dolia, Simone Gabellani, Jost von Hardenberg, Umberto Morra di Cella, Elisa Palazzi, Gaia Piazzi, Paolo Pogliotti, and Antonello Provenzale
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4061–4090, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4061-2020, 2020
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In mountain areas high-quality meteorological data to drive snow models are rarely available, so coarse-resolution data from spatial interpolation of the available in situ measurements or reanalyses are typically employed. We perform 12 experiments using six snow models with different degrees of complexity to show the impact of the accuracy of the forcing on snow depth and snow water equivalent simulations at the Alpine site of Torgnon, discussing the results in relation to the model complexity.
Nora Helbig, David Moeser, Michaela Teich, Laure Vincent, Yves Lejeune, Jean-Emmanuel Sicart, and Jean-Matthieu Monnet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2545–2560, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2545-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2545-2020, 2020
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Snow retained in the forest canopy (snow interception) drives spatial variability of the subcanopy snow accumulation. As such, accurately describing snow interception in models is of importance for various applications such as hydrological, weather, and climate predictions. We developed descriptions for the spatial mean and variability of snow interception. An independent evaluation demonstrated that the novel models can be applied in coarse land surface model grid cells.
Louis Quéno, Fatima Karbou, Vincent Vionnet, and Ingrid Dombrowski-Etchevers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2083–2104, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2083-2020, 2020
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In mountainous terrain, the snowpack is strongly affected by incoming shortwave and longwave radiation. Satellite-derived products of incoming radiation were assessed in the French Alps and the Pyrenees and compared to meteorological forecasts, reanalyses and in situ measurements. We showed their good quality in mountains. The different radiation datasets were used as radiative forcing for snowpack simulations with the detailed model Crocus. Their impact on the snowpack evolution was explored.
Emma L. Robinson and Douglas B. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1763–1779, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1763-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1763-2020, 2020
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This study used a water balance approach based on GRACE total water storage to infer the amount of cold-season precipitation in four Arctic river basins. This was used to evaluate four gridded meteorological data sets, which were used as inputs to a land surface model. We found that the cold-season precipitation in these data sets needed to be increased by up to 55 %. Using these higher precipitation inputs improved the model representation of Arctic hydrology, particularly lying snow.
Abbas Fayad and Simon Gascoin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1527–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1527-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1527-2020, 2020
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Seasonal snowpack is an essential water resource in Mediterranean mountains. Here, we look at the role of water percolation in simulating snow mass (SWE), for the first time, in Mount Lebanon. We use SnowModel, a distributed snow model, forced by station data. The main sources of uncertainty were attributed to rain–snow partitioning, transient winter snowmelt, and the subpixel snow cover. Yet, we show that a process-based model is suitable to simulate wet snowpack in Mediterranean mountains.
Joel Fiddes, Kristoffer Aalstad, and Sebastian Westermann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4717–4736, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4717-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4717-2019, 2019
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In this paper we address one of the big challenges in snow hydrology, namely the accurate simulation of the seasonal snowpack in ungauged regions. We do this by assimilating satellite observations of snow cover into a modelling framework. Importantly (and a novelty of the paper), we include a clustering approach that permits highly efficient ensemble simulations. Efficiency gains and dependency on purely global datasets, means that this method can be applied over large areas anywhere on Earth.
Keith S. Jennings and Noah P. Molotch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3765–3786, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3765-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3765-2019, 2019
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There is a wide variety of modeling methods to designate precipitation as rain, snow, or a mix of the two. Here we show that method choice introduces marked uncertainty to simulated snowpack water storage (> 200 mm) and snow cover duration (> 1 month) in areas that receive significant winter and spring precipitation at air temperatures at and near freezing. This marked uncertainty has implications for water resources management as well as simulations of past and future hydroclimatic states.
Maria Andrianaki, Juna Shrestha, Florian Kobierska, Nikolaos P. Nikolaidis, and Stefano M. Bernasconi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3219–3232, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3219-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3219-2019, 2019
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We tested the performance of the SWAT hydrological model after being transferred from a small Alpine watershed to a greater area. We found that the performance of the model for the greater catchment was satisfactory and the climate change simulations gave insights into the impact of climate change on our site. Assessment tests are important in identifying the strengths and weaknesses of the models when they are applied under extreme conditions different to the ones that were calibrated.
Wenfeng Huang, Bin Cheng, Jinrong Zhang, Zheng Zhang, Timo Vihma, Zhijun Li, and Fujun Niu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2173–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2173-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2173-2019, 2019
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Up to now, little has been known on ice thermodynamics and lake–atmosphere interaction over the Tibetan Plateau during ice-covered seasons due to a lack of field data. Here, model experiments on ice thermodynamics were conducted in a shallow lake using HIGHTSI. Water–ice heat flux was a major source of uncertainty for lake ice thickness. Heat and mass budgets were estimated within the vertical air–ice–water system. Strong ice sublimation occurred and was responsible for water loss during winter.
Phillip Harder, John W. Pomeroy, and Warren D. Helgason
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1-2019, 2019
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As snow cover becomes patchy during snowmelt, energy is advected from warm snow-free surfaces to cold snow-covered surfaces. This paper proposes a simple sensible and latent heat advection model for snowmelt situations that can be coupled to one-dimensional energy balance snowmelt models. The model demonstrates that sensible and latent heat advection fluxes can compensate for one another, especially in early melt periods.
Fanny Larue, Alain Royer, Danielle De Sève, Alexandre Roy, and Emmanuel Cosme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5711–5734, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5711-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5711-2018, 2018
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A data assimilation scheme was developed to improve snow water equivalent (SWE) simulations by updating meteorological forcings and snowpack states using passive microwave satellite observations. A chain of models was first calibrated to simulate satellite observations over northeastern Canada. The assimilation was then validated over 12 stations where daily SWE measurements were acquired during 4 winters (2012–2016). The overall SWE bias is reduced by 68 % compared to original SWE simulations.
Michael L. Follum, Jeffrey D. Niemann, Julie T. Parno, and Charles W. Downer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2669–2688, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2669-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2669-2018, 2018
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Spatial patterns of snow and frozen ground within watersheds can impact the volume and timing of runoff. Commonly used snow and frozen ground simulation methods were modified to better account for the effects of topography and land cover on the spatial patterns of snow and frozen ground. When tested using a watershed in Vermont the modifications resulted in more accurate temporal and spatial simulation of both snow and frozen ground.
Jan Seibert, Marc J. P. Vis, Irene Kohn, Markus Weiler, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2211–2224, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2211-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2211-2018, 2018
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In many glacio-hydrological models glacier areas are assumed to be constant over time, which is a crucial limitation. Here we describe a novel approach to translate mass balances as simulated by the (glacio)hydrological model into glacier area changes. We combined the Δh approach of Huss et al. (2010) with the bucket-type model HBV and introduced a lookup table approach, which also allows periods with advancing glaciers to be represented, which is not possible with the original Huss method.
Florian Hanzer, Kristian Förster, Johanna Nemec, and Ulrich Strasser
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1593–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1593-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1593-2018, 2018
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Climate change effects on snow, glaciers, and hydrology are investigated for the Ötztal Alps region (Austria) using a hydroclimatological model driven by climate projections for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show declining snow amounts and strongly retreating glaciers with moderate effects on catchment runoff until the mid-21st century, whereas annual runoff volumes decrease strongly towards the end of the century.
Muhammad Fraz Ismail and Wolfgang Bogacki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1391–1409, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1391-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1391-2018, 2018
Marit Van Tiel, Adriaan J. Teuling, Niko Wanders, Marc J. P. Vis, Kerstin Stahl, and Anne F. Van Loon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 463–485, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-463-2018, 2018
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Glaciers are important hydrological reservoirs. Short-term variability in glacier melt and also glacier retreat can cause droughts in streamflow. In this study, we analyse the effect of glacier changes and different drought threshold approaches on future projections of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. We show that these different methodological options result in different drought projections and that these options can be used to study different aspects of streamflow droughts.
Felix N. Matt, John F. Burkhart, and Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 179–201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-179-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-179-2018, 2018
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Certain particles that have the ability to absorb sunlight deposit onto mountain snow via atmospheric transport mechanisms and then lower the snow's ability to reflect sunlight, which increases snowmelt. Herein we present a model aiming to simulate this effect and model the impacts on the streamflow of a southern Norwegian river. We find a significant difference in streamflow between simulations with and without the effect of light absorbing particles applied, in particular during spring melt.
Hiroyuki Hirashima, Francesco Avanzi, and Satoru Yamaguchi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5503–5515, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5503-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5503-2017, 2017
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We reproduced the formation of capillary barriers and the development of preferential flow through snow using a multi-dimensional water transport model, which was then validated using laboratory experiments of liquid water infiltration into layered, initially dry snow. Simulation results showed that the model reconstructs some relevant features of capillary barriers and the timing of liquid water arrival at the snow base.
Claudio Bravo, Thomas Loriaux, Andrés Rivera, and Ben W. Brock
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3249–3266, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3249-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3249-2017, 2017
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We present an analysis of meteorological conditions and melt for Universidad Glacier in central Chile. This glacier is characterized by high melt rates over the ablation season, representing a mean contribution of between 10 and 13 % of the total runoff observed in the upper Tinguiririca Basin during the November 2009 to March 2010 period. Few studies have quantified the glacier melt contribution to river runoff in Chile, and this work represents a new precedent for the Andes.
Sebastian Würzer, Nander Wever, Roman Juras, Michael Lehning, and Tobias Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1741–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1741-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1741-2017, 2017
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We discuss a dual-domain water transport model in a physics-based snowpack model to account for preferential flow (PF) in addition to matrix flow. So far no operationally used snow model has explicitly accounted for PF. The new approach is compared to existing water transport models and validated against in situ data from sprinkling and natural rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Our work demonstrates the benefit of considering PF in modelling hourly snowpack runoff, especially during ROS conditions.
Kelly E. Gleason, Anne W. Nolin, and Travis R. Roth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1137–1147, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1137-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1137-2017, 2017
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We present a coupled modeling approach used to objectively identify representative snow-monitoring locations in a forested watershed in the western Oregon Cascades mountain range. The resultant Forest Elevational Snow Transect (ForEST) represents combinations of forested and open land cover types at low, mid-, and high elevations.
Rafael Pimentel, Javier Herrero, and María José Polo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 805–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-805-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-805-2017, 2017
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This study analyses the subgrid variability of the snow distribution in a Mediterranean region and formulates a parametric approach that includes these scale effects in the physical modelling of snow by means of accumulation–depletion curves associated with snow evolution patterns, by means of terrestrial photography. The results confirm that the use of these on a cell scale provides a solid foundation for the extension of point snow models to larger areas.
Nena Griessinger, Jan Seibert, Jan Magnusson, and Tobias Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3895–3905, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3895-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3895-2016, 2016
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In Alpine catchments, snowmelt is a major contribution to runoff. In this study, we address the question of whether the performance of a hydrological model can be enhanced by integrating data from an external snow monitoring system. To this end, a hydrological model was driven with snowmelt input from snow models of different complexities. Best performance was obtained with a snow model, which utilized data assimilation, in particular for catchments at higher elevations and for snow-rich years.
Jacob C. Yde, Niels T. Knudsen, Jørgen P. Steffensen, Jonathan L. Carrivick, Bent Hasholt, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Christian Kronborg, Nicolaj K. Larsen, Sebastian H. Mernild, Hans Oerter, David H. Roberts, and Andrew J. Russell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1197–1210, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1197-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1197-2016, 2016
E. Cornwell, N. P. Molotch, and J. McPhee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 411–430, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-411-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-411-2016, 2016
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We present a high-resolution snow water equivalent estimation for the 2001–2014 period over the extratropical Andes Cordillera of Argentina and Chile, the first of its type. The effect of elevation on accumulation is confirmed, although this is less marked in the northern portion of the domain. The 3000–4000 m a.s.l. elevation band contributes the bulk of snowmelt, but the 4000–5000 m a.s.l. band is a significant source and deserves further monitoring and research.
S. Frey and H. Holzmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4517–4530, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4517-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4517-2015, 2015
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Temperature index melt models often lead to snow accumulation in high mountainous elevations. We developed a simple conceptual snow redistribution model working on a commonly used grid cell size of 1x1km. That model is integrated in the hydrological rainfall runoff model COSERO. Applying the model to the catchment of Oetztaler Ache, Austria, could prevent the accumulation of snow in the upper altitudes and lead to an improved model efficiency regarding discharge and snow coverage (MODIS).
Z. H. He, F. Q. Tian, H. V. Gupta, H. C. Hu, and H. P. Hu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1807–1826, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1807-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1807-2015, 2015
S. J. Marshall
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5181–5200, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5181-2014, 2014
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This paper presents a new 12-year glacier meteorological, mass balance, and run-off record from the Canadian Rocky Mountains. This provides insight into the glaciohydrological regime of the Rockies. For the period 2002-2013, about 60% of glacier meltwater run-off originated from seasonal snow and 40% was derived from glacier ice and firn. Ice and firn run-off is concentrated in the months of August and September, at which time it contributes significantly to regional-scale water resources.
J. You, D. G. Tarboton, and C. H. Luce
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5061–5076, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5061-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5061-2014, 2014
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This paper evaluates three improvements to an energy balance snowmelt model aimed to represent snow surface temperature while retaining the parsimony of a single layer. Surface heat flow is modeled using a forcing term related to the vertical temperature difference and a restore term related to the temporal gradient of surface temperature. Adjustments for melt water refreezing and thermal conductivity when the snow is shallow are introduced. The model performs well at the three test sites.
Z. H. He, J. Parajka, F. Q. Tian, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4773–4789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4773-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4773-2014, 2014
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In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating the snowmelt degree-day factor (DDFS) directly from MODIS snow covered area (SCA) and ground-based snow depth data without calibration. Snow density is estimated as the ratio between observed precipitation and changes in the snow volume for days with snow accumulation. DDFS values are estimated as the ratio between changes in the snow water equivalent and difference between the daily temperature and a threshold value for days with snowmelt.
K. Förster, G. Meon, T. Marke, and U. Strasser
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4703–4720, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4703-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4703-2014, 2014
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Four snow models of different complexity (temperature-index vs. energy balance models) are compared using observed and dynamically downscaled atmospheric analysis data as input. Biases in simulated precipitation lead to lower model performance. However, simulated meteorological conditions are proven to be a valuable meteorological data source as they provide model input in regions with limited availability of observations and allow the application of energy balance approaches.
Cited articles
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Short summary
Snowmelt in the High Atlas is critical for irrigation in Morocco but is threatened by climate change. We assess future trends in High Atlas snowpack by modelling it under historical and future climate scenarios and estimate their impact on runoff. We find that the combined warming and drying will result in a roughly 80 % decline in snowpack, a 5 %–30 % decrease in runoff efficiency and 50 %–60 % decline in runoff under a business-as-usual scenario.
Snowmelt in the High Atlas is critical for irrigation in Morocco but is threatened by climate...
