Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-571-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-571-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Feb 2022
Research article |
| 02 Feb 2022
| 02 Feb 2022
Future projections of High Atlas snowpack and runoff under climate change
Alexandre Tuel
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 15 Vassar St., Cambridge, 02139, USA
current affiliation: Institute of Geography, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Nabil El Moçayd
International Water Research Institute, University Mohammed VI Polytechnique, Lot 660 Hay Moulay Rachid, 43150 Ben Guerir, Morocco
Moulay Driss Hasnaoui
Ministry of Equipment, Transport, Logistics and Water, Department of Water, Rabat, Morocco
Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 15 Vassar St., Cambridge, 02139, USA
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26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Georeferenced Snow Depth and Snow Water Equivalent Dataset (2025) from East Kazakhstan Region D. Chernykh et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/data11020040
- Temporal relationships between agricultural and meteorological drought over the Oum Er Rbia River, Morrocco I. Hanadé Houmma et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/20964471.2025.2479430
- How long do trees resist prolonged drought? Insights from semiarid regions S. Oussaoui et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.srs.2026.100435
- Local irrigation systems, governance, and climate change in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco A. Woodmansee et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2025.013
- The Application of SWAT Model and Remotely Sensed Products to Characterize the Dynamic of Streamflow and Snow in a Mountainous Watershed in the High Atlas S. Taia et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/s23031246
- Enhancing streamflow predictions through basin-to-basin knowledge transfer: A novel strategy for deep learning models adaptation and generalization K. Nifa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2025.107978
- Prediction of current and future gully erosion susceptibility in the Oued Zat watershed in the High Atlas region of Morocco using an SVM-based machine learning approach Y. Dallahi et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/15324982.2024.2390477
- Revisiting agricultural policies in Morocco through the lens of virtual water trade: a literature review M. Ridaoui et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2025.1717928
- Storylines for the 1997 New Year’s Flood: The role of watershed antecedent conditions and future warming in shaping discharge in the Truckee River watershed G. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135080
- Analysis of the Propagation Characteristics of Meteorological Drought to Hydrological Drought and Their Joint Effects on Low-Flow Drought Variability in the Oum Er Rbia Watershed, Morocco I. Houmma et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17020281
- Future projection of droughts in Morocco and potential impact on agriculture V. Gumus et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122019
- Linking groundwater recharge dynamics to traditional irrigation practices in a semiarid mountain-front system H. Bouimouass et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109855
- Evaluation of future temperature and precipitation projections in Morocco using the ANN-based multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 V. Gumus et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106880
- Coupled Cellular automata – Snowmelt Runoff Model: A Novel Framework for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow J. Hidalgo-Hidalgo et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00975-7
- Retrospective Analysis and Future Projections of Bioclimatic Indices Under Climate Change: The Case of Azilal Province, Morocco A. Sguigaa et al. https://doi.org/10.1051/bioconf/202621503004
- Groundwater storage depletion and contamination trade-offs under contrasting irrigation practices in drought-stressed Morocco H. Bouimouass et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103393
- Integrated drought assessment in Morocco: a combined approach using meteorological, hydrological, and remote sensing observations (1975–2023) F. Ouelkabir et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-026-02815-7
- Snow sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change during compound cold–hot and wet–dry seasons in the Pyrenees J. Bonsoms et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1307-2023
- Projected climate change impacts on streamflow in the Upper Oum Er Rbia Basin, Upstream of the Ahmed El Hansali Dam, Morocco T. Orfi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2025.101101
- Modeling Streamflow Response to Climate Scenarios in Data-Scarce Mediterranean Catchment: The Medjerda in Northern Tunisia K. Gader et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth6030068
- Investigating Extreme Snowfall Changes in China Based on an Ensemble of High-Resolution Regional Climate Models J. Zhu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15053878
- Characterizing rural livelihoods in a changing environment: a case study in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco A. Woodmansee et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-00791-z
- Spatial modeling of snow water equivalent in the high atlas mountains via a lumped process-based approach S. Acharki et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-12163-8
- Recent Patterns and Trends of Snow Cover (2000–2023) in the Cantabrian Mountains (Spain) from Satellite Imagery Using Google Earth Engine A. Melón-Nava https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16193592
- Future water resources and droughts in the Atlas Mountains of Morocco under a high-emission climate scenario O. Lahnik et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102371
- High-resolution mountain topography can inform global snow vulnerability estimates A. Marshall et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae2d73
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Georeferenced Snow Depth and Snow Water Equivalent Dataset (2025) from East Kazakhstan Region D. Chernykh et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/data11020040
- Temporal relationships between agricultural and meteorological drought over the Oum Er Rbia River, Morrocco I. Hanadé Houmma et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/20964471.2025.2479430
- How long do trees resist prolonged drought? Insights from semiarid regions S. Oussaoui et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.srs.2026.100435
- Local irrigation systems, governance, and climate change in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco A. Woodmansee et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2025.013
- The Application of SWAT Model and Remotely Sensed Products to Characterize the Dynamic of Streamflow and Snow in a Mountainous Watershed in the High Atlas S. Taia et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/s23031246
- Enhancing streamflow predictions through basin-to-basin knowledge transfer: A novel strategy for deep learning models adaptation and generalization K. Nifa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2025.107978
- Prediction of current and future gully erosion susceptibility in the Oued Zat watershed in the High Atlas region of Morocco using an SVM-based machine learning approach Y. Dallahi et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/15324982.2024.2390477
- Revisiting agricultural policies in Morocco through the lens of virtual water trade: a literature review M. Ridaoui et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2025.1717928
- Storylines for the 1997 New Year’s Flood: The role of watershed antecedent conditions and future warming in shaping discharge in the Truckee River watershed G. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135080
- Analysis of the Propagation Characteristics of Meteorological Drought to Hydrological Drought and Their Joint Effects on Low-Flow Drought Variability in the Oum Er Rbia Watershed, Morocco I. Houmma et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17020281
- Future projection of droughts in Morocco and potential impact on agriculture V. Gumus et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122019
- Linking groundwater recharge dynamics to traditional irrigation practices in a semiarid mountain-front system H. Bouimouass et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109855
- Evaluation of future temperature and precipitation projections in Morocco using the ANN-based multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 V. Gumus et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106880
- Coupled Cellular automata – Snowmelt Runoff Model: A Novel Framework for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow J. Hidalgo-Hidalgo et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00975-7
- Retrospective Analysis and Future Projections of Bioclimatic Indices Under Climate Change: The Case of Azilal Province, Morocco A. Sguigaa et al. https://doi.org/10.1051/bioconf/202621503004
- Groundwater storage depletion and contamination trade-offs under contrasting irrigation practices in drought-stressed Morocco H. Bouimouass et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103393
- Integrated drought assessment in Morocco: a combined approach using meteorological, hydrological, and remote sensing observations (1975–2023) F. Ouelkabir et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-026-02815-7
- Snow sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change during compound cold–hot and wet–dry seasons in the Pyrenees J. Bonsoms et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1307-2023
- Projected climate change impacts on streamflow in the Upper Oum Er Rbia Basin, Upstream of the Ahmed El Hansali Dam, Morocco T. Orfi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2025.101101
- Modeling Streamflow Response to Climate Scenarios in Data-Scarce Mediterranean Catchment: The Medjerda in Northern Tunisia K. Gader et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth6030068
- Investigating Extreme Snowfall Changes in China Based on an Ensemble of High-Resolution Regional Climate Models J. Zhu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15053878
- Characterizing rural livelihoods in a changing environment: a case study in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco A. Woodmansee et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-00791-z
- Spatial modeling of snow water equivalent in the high atlas mountains via a lumped process-based approach S. Acharki et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-12163-8
- Recent Patterns and Trends of Snow Cover (2000–2023) in the Cantabrian Mountains (Spain) from Satellite Imagery Using Google Earth Engine A. Melón-Nava https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16193592
- Future water resources and droughts in the Atlas Mountains of Morocco under a high-emission climate scenario O. Lahnik et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102371
- High-resolution mountain topography can inform global snow vulnerability estimates A. Marshall et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae2d73
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 01 Jun 2026
Short summary
Snowmelt in the High Atlas is critical for irrigation in Morocco but is threatened by climate change. We assess future trends in High Atlas snowpack by modelling it under historical and future climate scenarios and estimate their impact on runoff. We find that the combined warming and drying will result in a roughly 80 % decline in snowpack, a 5 %–30 % decrease in runoff efficiency and 50 %–60 % decline in runoff under a business-as-usual scenario.
Snowmelt in the High Atlas is critical for irrigation in Morocco but is threatened by climate...
