Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 469–482, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-469-2022
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 469–482, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-469-2022
Research article
31 Jan 2022
Research article | 31 Jan 2022

Extreme floods in Europe: going beyond observations using reforecast ensemble pooling

Manuela I. Brunner and Louise J. Slater

Related authors

Disentangling natural streamflow from reservoir regulation practices in the Alps using generalized additive models
Manuela Irene Brunner and Philippe Naveau
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-244,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-244, 2022
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk management
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
A space–time Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework for projection of seasonal maximum streamflow
Álvaro Ossandón, Manuela I. Brunner, Balaji Rajagopalan, and William Kleiber
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 149–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-149-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-149-2022, 2022
Short summary
Space–time dependence of compound hot–dry events in the United States: assessment using a multi-site multi-variable weather generator
Manuela I. Brunner, Eric Gilleland, and Andrew W. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021, 2021
Short summary
Flood spatial coherence, triggers, and performance in hydrological simulations: large-sample evaluation of four streamflow-calibrated models
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew W. Wood, Oldrich Rakovec, Naoki Mizukami, Wouter J. M. Knoben, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 105–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Engineering Hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Deep learning methods for flood mapping: a review of existing applications and future research directions
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastian Nicolaas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4345–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4345-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4345-2022, 2022
Short summary
Hydroinformatics education – the Water Informatics in Science and Engineering (WISE) Centre for Doctoral Training
Thorsten Wagener, Dragan Savic, David Butler, Reza Ahmadian, Tom Arnot, Jonathan Dawes, Slobodan Djordjevic, Roger Falconer, Raziyeh Farmani, Debbie Ford, Jan Hofman, Zoran Kapelan, Shunqi Pan, and Ross Woods
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2721–2738, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2721-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2721-2021, 2021
Short summary
Wetropolis extreme rainfall and flood demonstrator: from mathematical design to outreach
Onno Bokhove, Tiffany Hicks, Wout Zweers, and Thomas Kent
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2483–2503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2483-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2483-2020, 2020
Short summary
Technical note: The beneficial role of a natural permeable layer in slope stabilization by drainage trenches
Gianfranco Urciuoli, Luca Comegna, Marianna Pirone, and Luciano Picarelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1669–1676, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1669-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1669-2020, 2020
Short summary
Assessing the impacts of reservoirs on downstream flood frequency by coupling the effect of scheduling-related multivariate rainfall with an indicator of reservoir effects
Bin Xiong, Lihua Xiong, Jun Xia, Chong-Yu Xu, Cong Jiang, and Tao Du
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4453–4470, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4453-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4453-2019, 2019
Short summary

Cited articles

Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS-global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013. a
Barnard, C., Krzeminski, B., Mazzetti, C., Decremer, D., Carton de Wiart, C., Harrigan, S., Blick, M., Ferrario, I., and Wetterhall, F., and Prudhomme, C.: Reforecasts of river discharge and related data by the European Flood Awareness System, version 4.0, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.c83f560f, 2020. a, b, c
Bartholmes, J. C., Thielen, J., Ramos, M. H., and Gentilini, S.: The european flood alert system EFAS – Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 141–153, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-141-2009, 2009. a
Berghuijs, W. R., Harrigan, S., Molnar, P., Slater, L. J., and Kirchner, J. W.: The relative importance of different flood-generating mechanisms across Europe, Water Resour. Res., 55, 4582–4593, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024841, 2019. a, b
Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigão, R., Parajka, R., Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G., Bilibashi, A., Boháč, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Čanjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G., Claps, P., Frolova, N., Ganora, D., Gorbachova, L., Gül, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T., Kohnová, S., Koskela, J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Salinas, J., Sauquet, E., Šraj, M., Szolgay, J., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., and Živković, N.: Changing climate both increases and decreases European floods, Nature, 573, 108–111, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6, 2019. a
Download
Short summary
Assessing the rarity and magnitude of very extreme flood events occurring less than twice a century is challenging due to the lack of observations of such rare events. Here we develop a new approach, pooling reforecast ensemble members from the European Flood Awareness System to increase the sample size available to estimate the frequency of extreme flood events. We demonstrate that such ensemble pooling produces more robust estimates than observation-based estimates.