Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-469-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-469-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
Research article
 | 
31 Jan 2022
Research article |  | 31 Jan 2022

Extreme floods in Europe: going beyond observations using reforecast ensemble pooling

Manuela I. Brunner and Louise J. Slater

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Short summary
Assessing the rarity and magnitude of very extreme flood events occurring less than twice a century is challenging due to the lack of observations of such rare events. Here we develop a new approach, pooling reforecast ensemble members from the European Flood Awareness System to increase the sample size available to estimate the frequency of extreme flood events. We demonstrate that such ensemble pooling produces more robust estimates than observation-based estimates.
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