Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-469-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-469-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
31 Jan 2022
Research article |
| 31 Jan 2022
| 31 Jan 2022
Extreme floods in Europe: going beyond observations using reforecast ensemble pooling
Manuela I. Brunner
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
Louise J. Slater
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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- An open workflow to gain insights about low‐likelihood high‐impact weather events from initialized predictions T. Kelder et al. 10.1002/met.2065
- Improved estimation of extreme floods with data pooling and mixed probability distribution A. Ganapathy et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130633
- Uni- and multivariate bias adjustment of climate model simulations in Nordic catchments: Effects on hydrological signatures relevant for water resources management in a changing climate F. Tootoonchi et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129807
- Potential for surprising heat and drought events in wheat-producing regions of USA and China E. Coughlan de Perez et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00361-y
- Large‐Scale Drivers of Persistent Extreme Weather During Early Summer 2021 in Europe A. Tuel et al. 10.1029/2022GL099624
- Моделирование геопространства зон затопления и подтопления реки Луга Т. Балтыжакова et al. 10.33764/2411-1759-2024-29-4-71-82
- Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting E. Fischer et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-40112-4
- Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines W. Chan et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024
- HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood A. Montanari et al. 10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024
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- Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England A. Kay et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024
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- Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation P. Bett et al. 10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023
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- Scaling of Floods With Geomorphologic Characteristics and Precipitation Variability Across the Conterminous United States N. Najibi & N. Devineni 10.1029/2022WR032815
- Current and future risk of unprecedented hydrological droughts in Great Britain W. Chan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130074
- Robustness of hydrometeorological extremes in surrogated seasonal forecasts K. Klehmet et al. 10.1002/joc.8407
- Diverse Surface Signatures of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Anomalies E. Kolstad et al. 10.1029/2022JD037422
- Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes to Unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole Events D. MacLeod et al. 10.1029/2023GL105258
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010–2012 event W. Chan et al. 10.5194/hess-26-1755-2022
- An open workflow to gain insights about low‐likelihood high‐impact weather events from initialized predictions T. Kelder et al. 10.1002/met.2065
- Improved estimation of extreme floods with data pooling and mixed probability distribution A. Ganapathy et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130633
- Uni- and multivariate bias adjustment of climate model simulations in Nordic catchments: Effects on hydrological signatures relevant for water resources management in a changing climate F. Tootoonchi et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129807
- Potential for surprising heat and drought events in wheat-producing regions of USA and China E. Coughlan de Perez et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00361-y
- Large‐Scale Drivers of Persistent Extreme Weather During Early Summer 2021 in Europe A. Tuel et al. 10.1029/2022GL099624
- Моделирование геопространства зон затопления и подтопления реки Луга Т. Балтыжакова et al. 10.33764/2411-1759-2024-29-4-71-82
- Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting E. Fischer et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-40112-4
- Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines W. Chan et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024
- HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood A. Montanari et al. 10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024
- Floods and droughts: a multivariate perspective M. Brunner 10.5194/hess-27-2479-2023
- Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England A. Kay et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024
- Interpreting extreme climate impacts from large ensemble simulations—are they unseen or unrealistic? T. Kelder et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5cf4
- Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation P. Bett et al. 10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023
- Hydrological regimes explain the seasonal predictability of streamflow extremes Y. Du et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acf678
- Scaling of Floods With Geomorphologic Characteristics and Precipitation Variability Across the Conterminous United States N. Najibi & N. Devineni 10.1029/2022WR032815
- Current and future risk of unprecedented hydrological droughts in Great Britain W. Chan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130074
- Robustness of hydrometeorological extremes in surrogated seasonal forecasts K. Klehmet et al. 10.1002/joc.8407
- Diverse Surface Signatures of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Anomalies E. Kolstad et al. 10.1029/2022JD037422
- Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes to Unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole Events D. MacLeod et al. 10.1029/2023GL105258
Latest update: 20 Nov 2024
Short summary
Assessing the rarity and magnitude of very extreme flood events occurring less than twice a century is challenging due to the lack of observations of such rare events. Here we develop a new approach, pooling reforecast ensemble members from the European Flood Awareness System to increase the sample size available to estimate the frequency of extreme flood events. We demonstrate that such ensemble pooling produces more robust estimates than observation-based estimates.
Assessing the rarity and magnitude of very extreme flood events occurring less than twice a...
