Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 469–482, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-469-2022
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 469–482, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-469-2022

Research article 31 Jan 2022

Research article | 31 Jan 2022

Extreme floods in Europe: going beyond observations using reforecast ensemble pooling

Manuela I. Brunner and Louise J. Slater

Data sets

Reforecasts of river discharge and related data by the European Flood Awareness System, version 4.0 C. Barnard, B. Krzeminski, C. Mazzetti, D. Decremer, C. Carton de Wiart, S. Harrigan, M. Blick, I. Ferrario, F. Wetterhall, F., and C. Prudhomme https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.c83f560f

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Short summary
Assessing the rarity and magnitude of very extreme flood events occurring less than twice a century is challenging due to the lack of observations of such rare events. Here we develop a new approach, pooling reforecast ensemble members from the European Flood Awareness System to increase the sample size available to estimate the frequency of extreme flood events. We demonstrate that such ensemble pooling produces more robust estimates than observation-based estimates.