Articles | Volume 26, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Jul 2022
Research article |
| 18 Jul 2022
| 18 Jul 2022
Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe
Louise Busschaert
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Heverlee 3001, Belgium
Shannon de Roos
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Heverlee 3001, Belgium
Wim Thiery
Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels 1050, Belgium
Dirk Raes
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Heverlee 3001, Belgium
Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Heverlee 3001, Belgium
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Paolo Nasta, Günter Blöschl, Heye R. Bogena, Steffen Zacharias, Roland Baatz, Gabriëlle De Lannoy, Karsten H. Jensen, Salvatore Manfreda, Laurent Pfister, Ana M. Tarquis, Ilja van Meerveld, Marc Voltz, Yijian Zeng, William Kustas, Xin Li, Harry Vereecken, and Nunzio Romano
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1678, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1678, 2024
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The Unsolved Problems in Hydrology (UPH) initiative has emphasized the need to establish networks of multi-decadal hydrological observatories to tackle catchment-scale challenges on a global scale. This opinion paper provocatively discusses two end members of possible future hydrological observatory (HO) networks for a given hypothesized community budget: a comprehensive set of moderately instrumented observatories or, alternatively, a small number of highly instrumented super-sites.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Newland Gosling, Marlo Garnsworthy, Laura Müller, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Atiq Kainan Ahmed, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Jinfeng Chang, He Chen, Manolis Grillakis, Luca Guillaumot, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Rohini Kumar, Guoyong Leng, Junguo Liu, Xingcai Liu, Inga Menke, Vimal Mishra, Yadu Pokhrel, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Yusuke Satoh, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Mikhail Smilovic, Tobias Stacke, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Wim Thiery, Athanasios Tsilimigkras, Yoshihide Wada, Niko Wanders, and Tokuta Yokohata
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1303, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1303, 2024
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Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of the reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers and data users.
Derrick Muheki, Axel A. J. Deijns, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Jakob Zscheischler, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 429–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, 2024
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Climate change affects the interaction, dependence, and joint occurrence of climate extremes. Here we investigate the joint occurrence of pairs of river floods, droughts, heatwaves, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones in East Africa under past and future climate conditions. Our results show that, across all future warming scenarios, the frequency and spatial extent of these co-occurring extremes will increase in this region, particularly in areas close to the Nile and Congo rivers.
Sabin I. Taranu, David M. Lawrence, Yoshihide Wada, Ting Tang, Erik Kluzek, Sam Rabin, Yi Yao, Steven J. De Hertog, Inne Vanderkelen, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-362, 2024
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In this study, we improve an existing climate model to account for human water usage across domestic, industrial, and agriculture purposes. With the new capabilities, the model is now better equipped for studying questions related to water scarcity in both present and future conditions under climate change. Despite the advancements, there remains important limitations in our modelling framework which requires further work.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 265–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, 2024
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Changes in land use are crucial to achieve lower global warming. However, despite their importance, the effects of these changes on moisture fluxes are poorly understood. We analyse land cover and management scenarios in three climate models involving cropland expansion, afforestation, and irrigation. Results show largely consistent influences on moisture fluxes, with cropland expansion causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation show the opposite.
Rosa Pietroiusti, Inne Vanderkelen, Friederike E. L. Otto, Clair Barnes, Lucy Temple, Mary Akurut, Philippe Bally, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 225–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-225-2024, 2024
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Heavy rainfall in eastern Africa between late 2019 and mid 2020 caused devastating floods and landslides and drove the levels of Lake Victoria to a record-breaking maximum in May 2020. In this study, we characterize the spatial extent and impacts of the floods in the Lake Victoria basin and investigate how human-induced climate change influenced the probability and intensity of the record-breaking lake levels and flooding by applying a multi-model extreme event attribution methodology.
Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, and Michel Bechtold
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 445–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, 2024
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With global warming increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the boreal region, accurate risk assessments are becoming more crucial than ever before. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a renowned system, yet its effectiveness in peatlands, where hydrology plays a key role, is limited. By incorporating groundwater data from numerical models and satellite observations, our modified FWI improves the accuracy of fire danger predictions, especially over summer.
Celray James Chawanda, Albert Nkwasa, Wim Thiery, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, 2024
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Africa's water resources are being negatively impacted by climate change and land-use change. The SWAT+ hydrological model was used to simulate the hydrological cycle in Africa, and results show likely decreases in river flows in the Zambezi and Congo rivers and highest flows in the Niger River basins due to climate change. Land cover change had the biggest impact in the Congo River basin, emphasizing the importance of including land-use change in studies.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
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Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Isis Brangers, Hans-Peter Marshall, Gabrielle De Lannoy, Devon Dunmire, Christian Matzler, and Hans Lievens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2927, 2023
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To better understand the interactions between C-band radar waves and snow, a tower-based experiment was set up in the Idaho Rocky Mountains. The reflections were collected in the time domain to measure the backscatter profile from the various snowpack and ground surface layers. The results demonstrate that C-band radar is sensitive to seasonal patterns in snow accumulation, but that changes in microstructure, stratigraphy and snow wetness may complicate satellite-based snow depth retrievals.
Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3805–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, 2023
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The Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS) model combines ensembles of landslide susceptibility and of hydrological predictor variables to provide daily, global ensembles of hazard for hydrologically triggered landslides. Testing different hydrological predictors showed that the combination of rainfall and soil moisture performed best, with the lowest number of missed and false alarms. The ensemble approach allowed the estimation of the associated prediction uncertainty.
Samuel Scherrer, Gabriëlle De Lannoy, Zdenko Heyvaert, Michel Bechtold, Clement Albergel, Tarek S. El-Madany, and Wouter Dorigo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4087–4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4087-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4087-2023, 2023
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We explored different options for data assimilation (DA) of the remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI). We found strong biases between LAI predicted by Noah-MP and observations. LAI DA that does not take these biases into account can induce unphysical patterns in the resulting LAI and flux estimates and leads to large changes in the climatology of root zone soil moisture. We tested two bias-correction approaches and explored alternative solutions to treating bias in LAI DA.
Shruti Nath, Lukas Gudmundsson, Jonas Schwaab, Gregory Duveiller, Steven J. De Hertog, Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Carl F. Schleussner, Wim Thiery, and Quentin Lejeune
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4283–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, 2023
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Tree cover changes play a significant role in climate mitigation and adaptation. Their regional impacts are key in informing national-level decisions and prioritising areas for conservation efforts. We present a first step towards exploring these regional impacts using a simple statistical device, i.e. emulator. The emulator only needs to train on climate model outputs representing the maximal impacts of aff-, re-, and deforestation, from which it explores plausible in-between outcomes itself.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 629–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, 2023
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Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occur and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, 2023
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Land cover and management changes can affect the climate and water availability. In this study we use climate model simulations of extreme global land cover changes (afforestation, deforestation) and land management changes (irrigation) to understand the effects on the global water cycle and local to continental water availability. We show that cropland expansion generally leads to higher evaporation and lower amounts of precipitation and afforestation and irrigation expansion to the opposite.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
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Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
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Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Axel A. J. Deijns, Olivier Dewitte, Wim Thiery, Nicolas d'Oreye, Jean-Philippe Malet, and François Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3679–3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, 2022
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Landslides and flash floods are rainfall-induced processes that often co-occur and interact, generally very quickly. In mountainous cloud-covered environments, determining when these processes occur remains challenging. We propose a regional methodology using open-access satellite radar images that allow for the timing of landslide and flash floods events, in the contrasting landscapes of tropical Africa, with an accuracy of up to a few days. The methodology shows potential for transferability.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Michel Bechtold, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Luca Brocca, Luca Zappa, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4685–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, 2022
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Given the crucial impact of irrigation practices on the water cycle, this study aims at estimating irrigation through the development of an innovative data assimilation system able to ingest high-resolution Sentinel-1 radar observations into the Noah-MP land surface model. The developed methodology has important implications for global water resource management and the comprehension of human impacts on the water cycle and identifies main challenges and outlooks for future research.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1305–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, 2022
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Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation, and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occurs and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Anne Felsberg, Jean Poesen, Michel Bechtold, Matthias Vanmaercke, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3063–3082, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3063-2022, 2022
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In this study we assessed global landslide susceptibility at the coarse 36 km spatial resolution of global satellite soil moisture observations to prepare for a subsequent combination of the two. Specifically, we focus therefore on the susceptibility of hydrologically triggered landslides. We introduce ensemble techniques, common in, for example, meteorology but not yet in the landslide community, to retrieve reliable estimates of the total prediction uncertainty.
Malgorzata Golub, Wim Thiery, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Inne Vanderkelen, Daniel Mercado-Bettin, R. Iestyn Woolway, Luke Grant, Eleanor Jennings, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Jacob Schewe, Fang Zhao, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, Vasiliy Y. Bogomolov, Damien Bouffard, Marianne Côté, Raoul-Marie Couture, Andrey V. Debolskiy, Bram Droppers, Gideon Gal, Mingyang Guo, Annette B. G. Janssen, Georgiy Kirillin, Robert Ladwig, Madeline Magee, Tadhg Moore, Marjorie Perroud, Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Love Raaman Vinnaa, Martin Schmid, Tom Shatwell, Victor M. Stepanenko, Zeli Tan, Bronwyn Woodward, Huaxia Yao, Rita Adrian, Mathew Allan, Orlane Anneville, Lauri Arvola, Karen Atkins, Leon Boegman, Cayelan Carey, Kyle Christianson, Elvira de Eyto, Curtis DeGasperi, Maria Grechushnikova, Josef Hejzlar, Klaus Joehnk, Ian D. Jones, Alo Laas, Eleanor B. Mackay, Ivan Mammarella, Hampus Markensten, Chris McBride, Deniz Özkundakci, Miguel Potes, Karsten Rinke, Dale Robertson, James A. Rusak, Rui Salgado, Leon van der Linden, Piet Verburg, Danielle Wain, Nicole K. Ward, Sabine Wollrab, and Galina Zdorovennova
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4597–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, 2022
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Lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. To better understand how lakes are changing and to project their future behavior amidst various sources of uncertainty, simulations with a range of lake models are required. This in turn requires international coordination across different lake modelling teams worldwide. Here we present a protocol for and results from coordinated simulations of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide.
Inne Vanderkelen, Shervan Gharari, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn P. Clark, David M. Lawrence, Sean Swenson, Yadu Pokhrel, Naota Hanasaki, Ann van Griensven, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4163–4192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, 2022
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Human-controlled reservoirs have a large influence on the global water cycle. However, dam operations are rarely represented in Earth system models. We implement and evaluate a widely used reservoir parametrization in a global river-routing model. Using observations of individual reservoirs, the reservoir scheme outperforms the natural lake scheme. However, both schemes show a similar performance due to biases in runoff timing and magnitude when using simulated runoff.
Aine M. Gormley-Gallagher, Sebastian Sterl, Annette L. Hirsch, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Edouard L. Davin, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-419-2022, 2022
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Our results show that agricultural management can impact the local climate and highlight the need to evaluate land management in climate models. We use regression analysis on climate simulations and observations to assess irrigation and conservation agriculture impacts on warming trends. This allowed us to distinguish between the effects of land management and large-scale climate forcings such as rising CO2 concentrations and thus gain insight into the impacts under different climate regimes.
Hans Lievens, Isis Brangers, Hans-Peter Marshall, Tobias Jonas, Marc Olefs, and Gabriëlle De Lannoy
The Cryosphere, 16, 159–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-159-2022, 2022
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Snow depth observations at high spatial resolution from the Sentinel-1 satellite mission are presented over the European Alps. The novel observations can improve our knowledge of seasonal snow mass in areas with complex topography, where satellite-based estimates are currently lacking, and benefit a number of applications including water resource management, flood forecasting, and numerical weather prediction.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Alexander Gruber, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Renato Morbidelli, and Gabrielle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6283–6307, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, 2021
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Worldwide, the amount of water used for agricultural purposes is rising and the quantification of irrigation is becoming a crucial topic. Land surface models are not able to correctly simulate irrigation. Remote sensing observations offer an opportunity to fill this gap as they are directly affected by irrigation. We equipped a land surface model with an observation operator able to transform Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into realistic vegetation and soil states via data assimilation.
Shannon de Roos, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, and Dirk Raes
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7309–7328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7309-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7309-2021, 2021
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A spatially distributed version of the field-scale crop model AquaCrop v6.1 was developed for applications at various spatial scales. Multi-year 1 km simulations over central Europe were evaluated against biomass and surface soil moisture products derived from optical and microwave satellite missions, as well as in situ observations of soil moisture. The regional version of the AquaCrop model provides a suitable setup for subsequent satellite-based data assimilation.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
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We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Michiel Maertens, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sebastian Apers, Sujay V. Kumar, and Sarith P. P. Mahanama
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4099–4125, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4099-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4099-2021, 2021
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In this study, we simulated the water balance over the South American Dry Chaco and assessed the impact of land cover changes thereon using three different land surface models. Our simulations indicated that different models result in a different partitioning of the total water budget, but all showed an increase in soil moisture and percolation over the deforested areas. We also found that, relative to independent data, no specific land surface model is significantly better than another.
Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, and Florian Herz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021
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We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 global water models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. We develop a standard writing style for the model equations. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end these equations have been adjusted, or the models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables.
Jianxiu Qiu, Jianzhi Dong, Wade T. Crow, Xiaohu Zhang, Rolf H. Reichle, and Gabrielle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1569–1586, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1569-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1569-2021, 2021
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The SMAP L4 dataset has been extensively used in hydrological applications. We innovatively use a machine learning method to analyze how the efficiency of the L4 data assimilation (DA) system is determined. It shows that DA efficiency is mainly related to Tb innovation, followed by error in precipitation forcing and microwave soil roughness. Since the L4 system can effectively filter out precipitation error, future development should focus on correctly specifying the SSM–RZSM coupling strength.
Robert Reinecke, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Peter Burek, Martina Flörke, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Satoh Yusuke, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 787–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, 2021
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Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Groundwater recharge is the primary process of regenerating groundwater resources. We find that groundwater recharge will increase in northern Europe by about 19 % and decrease by 10 % in the Amazon with 3 °C global warming. In the Mediterranean, a 2 °C warming has already lead to a reduction in recharge by 38 %. However, these model predictions are uncertain.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
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We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Kevin Sterckx, Philippe Delandmeter, Jonathan Lambrechts, Eric Deleersnijder, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-36, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This work covers multiple 3D simulations of the hydrodynamics of Lake Tanganyika, covering the inter-seasonal variations and the evolution linked to climate change. The research was done with COSMO-CLM2 data, which was used to run the SLIM 3D Lake Tanganyika model. The main results explain how this stratified lake can still maintain a certain mixing between the different layers, but how this would come to an end due to climate change.
Inne Vanderkelen, Jakob Zschleischler, Lukas Gudmundsson, Klaus Keuler, Francois Rineau, Natalie Beenaerts, Jaco Vangronsveld, and Wim Thiery
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-267, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Mathias Hauser, Wim Thiery, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 157–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, 2019
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We develop a method to keep the amount of water in the soil at the present-day level, using only local water sources in a global climate model. This leads to less drying over many land areas, but also decreases river runoff. We find that temperature extremes in the 21st century decrease substantially using our method. This provides a new perspective on how land water can influence regional climate and introduces land water management as potential tool for local mitigation of climate change.
Tom Shatwell, Wim Thiery, and Georgiy Kirillin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1533–1551, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019, 2019
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We used models to project future temperature and mixing in temperate lakes. Lakes will probably warm faster in winter than in summer, making ice less frequent and altering mixing. We found that the layers that form seasonally in lakes (ice, stratification) and water clarity affect how lakes accumulate heat. Seasonal changes in climate were thus important. This helps us better understand how different lake types respond to warming and which physical changes to expect in the future.
Gabriel Gerard Rooney, Nicole van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6357–6369, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6357-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6357-2018, 2018
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This paper uses a unique observational dataset of a tropical African lake (L. Kivu) to assess the effect of rain on lake surface temperature. Data from 4 years were categorised by daily rain amount and total net radiation to show that heavy rain may reduce the end-of-day lake temperature by about 0.3 K. This is important since lake surface temperature may influence local weather on short timescales, but the effect of rain on lake temperature has been little studied or parametrised previously.
Inne Vanderkelen, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5509–5525, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5509-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5509-2018, 2018
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Lake Victoria is the largest lake in Africa and one of the two major sources of the Nile river. The water level of Lake Victoria is determined by its water balance, consisting of lake precipitation and evaporation, inflow from rivers and lake outflow, controlled by two hydropower dams. Here, we present a water balance model for Lake Victoria, which closely represents the observed lake levels. The model results highlight the sensitivity of the lake level to human operations at the dam.
Inne Vanderkelen, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5527–5549, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5527-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5527-2018, 2018
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Lake Victoria is the second largest freshwater lake in the world and one of the major sources of the Nile River, which is controlled by two hydropower dams. In this paper we estimate the potential consequences of climate change for future water level fluctuations of Lake Victoria. Our results reveal that the operating strategies at the dam are the main controlling factors of future lake levels and that regional climate simulations used in the projections encompass large uncertainties.
Ronny Meier, Edouard L. Davin, Quentin Lejeune, Mathias Hauser, Yan Li, Brecht Martens, Natalie M. Schultz, Shannon Sterling, and Wim Thiery
Biogeosciences, 15, 4731–4757, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4731-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4731-2018, 2018
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Deforestation not only releases carbon dioxide to the atmosphere but also affects local climatic conditions by altering energy fluxes at the land surface and thereby the local temperature. Here, we evaluate the local impact of deforestation in a widely used land surface model. We find that the model reproduces the daytime warming effect of deforestation well. On the other hand, the warmer temperatures observed during night in forests are not present in this model.
Philippe Delandmeter, Jonathan Lambrechts, Vincent Legat, Valentin Vallaeys, Jaya Naithani, Wim Thiery, Jean-François Remacle, and Eric Deleersnijder
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1161–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1161-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1161-2018, 2018
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The discontinuous Galerkin (DG) finite element method is well suited for the modelling of three-dimensional flows exhibiting strong density gradients. Here, a vertical adaptive mesh method is developed for DG finite element methods and implemented into SLIM 3D. This technique increases drastically the accuracy of simulations including strong stratification, without affecting the simulation cost. SLIM 3D is then used to simulate the thermocline oscillations of Lake Tanganyika.
Liesbet Jacobs, Olivier Dewitte, Jean Poesen, John Sekajugo, Adriano Nobile, Mauro Rossi, Wim Thiery, and Matthieu Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 105–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-105-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-105-2018, 2018
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While country-specific, continental and global susceptibility maps are increasingly available, local and regional susceptibility studies remain rare in remote and data-poor settings. Here, we provide a landslide susceptibility assessment for the inhabited region of the Rwenzori Mountains. We find that higher spatial resolutions do not necessarily lead to better models and that models built for local case studies perform better than aggregated susceptibility assessments on the regional scale.
Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy and Rolf H. Reichle
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4895–4911, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4895-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4895-2016, 2016
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The SMOS mission provides various various products to estimate soil moisture. This paper evaluates the performance of assimilating either Level-1-based multi-angle brightness temperature (Tb) observations, Level-1-based single-angle Tb observations, or Level 2 soil moisture retrievals, into the NASA Catchment land surface model.
I. V. Gorodetskaya, S. Kneifel, M. Maahn, K. Van Tricht, W. Thiery, J. H. Schween, A. Mangold, S. Crewell, and N. P. M. Van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 9, 285–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-285-2015, 2015
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Our paper presents a new cloud-precipitation-meteorological observatory established in the escarpment zone of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. The site is characterised by bimodal cloud occurrence (clear sky or overcast) with liquid-containing clouds occurring 20% of the cloudy periods. Local surface mass balance strongly depends on rare intense snowfall events. A substantial part of the accumulated snow is removed by surface and drifting snow sublimation and wind-driven snow erosion.
W. Thiery, A. Martynov, F. Darchambeau, J.-P. Descy, P.-D. Plisnier, L. Sushama, and N. P. M. van Lipzig
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 317–337, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-317-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-317-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
A generalised ecohydrological landscape classification for assessing ecosystem risk in Australia due to an altering water regime
Process-based three-layer synergistic optimal-allocation model for complex water resource systems considering reclaimed water
Joint optimal operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project considering the evenness of water deficit
Employing the generalized Pareto distribution to analyze extreme rainfall events on consecutive rainy days in Thailand's Chi watershed: implications for flood management
Leveraging a Novel Hybrid Ensemble and Optimal Interpolation Approach for Enhanced Streamflow and Flood Prediction
How to account for irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model
Inferring reservoir filling strategies under limited-data-availability conditions using hydrological modeling and Earth observations: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
Climate-change impact on reservoir evaporation and water availability in a tropical sub-humid region, north-eastern Brazil
How economically and environmentally viable are multiple dams in the Upper Cauvery basin, India? A hydro-economic analysis using a landscape-based hydrological model
The H2Ours game to explore Water Use, Resources and Sustainability: connecting issues in two landscapes in Indonesia
The precision of satellite-based net irrigation quantification in the Indus and Ganges basins
Developing a Bayesian network model for understanding river catchment resilience under future change scenarios
Quantifying the trade-offs in re-operating dams for the environment in the Lower Volta River
Dynamically coupling system dynamics and SWAT+ models using Tinamït: application of modular tools for coupled human–water system models
Drainage assessment of irrigation districts: on the precision and accuracy of four parsimonious models
Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes
Cooperation in a transboundary river basin: a large-scale socio-hydrological model of the Eastern Nile
Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts
An improved model of shade-affected stream temperature in Soil & Water Assessment Tool
Seasonal forecasting of snow resources at Alpine sites
Operationalizing equity in multipurpose water systems
Evaluation of a new observationally based channel parameterization for the National Water Model
High-resolution drought simulations and comparison to soil moisture observations in Germany
Cooperation under conflict: participatory hydrological modeling for science policy dialogues for the Aculeo Lake
Socio-hydrological modeling of the tradeoff between flood control and hydropower provided by the Columbia River Treaty
Challenges and benefits of quantifying irrigation through the assimilation of Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into Noah-MP
A system dynamic model to quantify the impacts of water resources allocation on water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexus
The role of multi-criteria decision analysis in a transdisciplinary process: co-developing a flood forecasting system in western Africa
Unfolding the relationship between seasonal forecast skill and value in hydropower production: a global analysis
Drought impact links to meteorological drought indicators and predictability in Spain
Opportunities for seasonal forecasting to support water management outside the tropics
Probabilistic modelling of the inherent field-level pesticide pollution risk in a small drinking water catchment using spatial Bayesian belief networks
Are maps of nitrate reduction in groundwater altered by climate and land use changes?
Historical simulation of maize water footprints with a new global gridded crop model ACEA
Future upstream water consumption and its impact on downstream water availability in the transboundary Indus Basin
Identifying the dynamic evolution and feedback process of water resources nexus system considering socioeconomic development, ecological protection, and food security: A practical tool for sustainable water use
Optimizing a backscatter forward operator using Sentinel-1 data over irrigated land
Robustness of a parsimonious subsurface drainage model at the French national scale
Spatially distributed impacts of climate change and groundwater demand on the water resources in a wadi system
Delineation of dew formation zones in Iran using long-term model simulations and cluster analysis
Streamflow estimation at partially gaged sites using multiple-dependence conditions via vine copulas
Water resources management and dynamic changes in water politics in the transboundary river basins of Central Asia
Assessing interannual variability in nitrogen sourcing and retention through hybrid Bayesian watershed modeling
Minimizing the impact of vacating instream storage of a multi-reservoir system: a trade-off study of water supply and empty flushing
Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption
Signatures of human intervention – or not? Downstream intensification of hydrological drought along a large Central Asian river: the individual roles of climate variability and land use change
Field-scale soil moisture bridges the spatial-scale gap between drought monitoring and agricultural yields
Socio-hydrologic modeling of the dynamics of cooperation in the transboundary Lancang–Mekong River
Multi-level storylines for participatory modeling – involving marginalized communities in Tz'olöj Ya', Mayan Guatemala
Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden
Alexander Herr, Linda E. Merrin, Patrick J. Mitchell, Anthony P. O'Grady, Kate L. Holland, Richard E. Mount, David A. Post, Chris R. Pavey, and Ashley D. Sparrow
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1957–1979, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1957-2024, 2024
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We develop an ecohydrological classification for regions with limited hydrological records. It provides causal links of landscape features and their water requirement. The classification is an essential framework for modelling the impact of future coal resource developments via water on the features. A rule set combines diverse data with prioritisation, resulting in a transparent, repeatable and adjustable approach. We show examples of linking ecohydrology with environmental impacts.
Jing Liu, Yue-Ping Xu, Wei Zhang, Shiwu Wang, and Siwei Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1325–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1325-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1325-2024, 2024
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Applying optimal water allocation models to simultaneously enable economic benefits, water preferences, and environmental demands at different decision levels, timescales, and regions is a challenge. In this study, a process-based three-layer synergistic optimal-allocation model (PTSOA) is established to achieve these goals. Reused, reclaimed water is also coupled to capture environmentally friendly solutions. Network analysis was introduced to reduce competition among different stakeholders.
Bing-Yi Zhou, Guo-Hua Fang, Xin Li, Jian Zhou, and Hua-Yu Zhong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 817–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-817-2024, 2024
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The current unreasonable inter-basin water transfer operation leads to the problem of spatial and temporal imbalances in water allocation. This paper defines a water deficit evenness index and incorporates it into a joint optimization model for the Jiangsu section of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project considering ecology and economy. At the same time, the lake storage capacity performs well, and the water transfer efficiency of the river is significantly improved.
Tossapol Phoophiwfa, Prapawan Chomphuwiset, Thanawan Prahadchai, Jeong-Soo Park, Arthit Apichottanakul, Watchara Theppang, and Piyapatr Busababodhin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 801–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-801-2024, 2024
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This study examines the impact of extreme rainfall events on flood risk management in Thailand's Chi watershed. By analyzing historical data, we identified regions, notably Udon Thani and Chaiyaphum, with a high risk of flash flooding. To aid in flood risk assessment, visual maps were created. The study underscores the importance of preparing for extreme rainfall events, particularly in the context of climate change, to effectively mitigate potential flood damage.
Mohamad El Gharamti, Arezoo RafieeiNasab, and James L. McCreight
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-269, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-269, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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This study introduces a hybrid data assimilation scheme for precise streamflow predictions during intense rainfall and hurricanes. Tested in real events, it outperforms traditional methods by up to 50 %, utilizing ensemble and climatological background covariances. The adaptive algorithm ensures reliability with a small ensemble, offering improved forecasts up to 18 hours in advance, marking a significant advancement in flood prediction capabilities.
Elisabeth Brochet, Youen Grusson, Sabine Sauvage, Ludovic Lhuissier, and Valérie Demarez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 49–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-49-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-49-2024, 2024
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This study aims to take into account irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model. The model we used combines agriculture and hydrological modeling. Two different crop models were compared, the first based on air temperature and the second based on Sentinel-2 satellite data. Results show that including remote sensing data leads to better emergence dates. Both methods allow us to simulate the daily irrigation withdrawals and downstream flow with a good accuracy, especially during low-flow periods.
Awad M. Ali, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4057–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, 2023
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Using a new approach based on a combination of modeling and Earth observation, useful information about the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can be obtained with limited data and proper rainfall selection. While the monthly streamflow into Sudan has decreased significantly (1.2 × 109–5 × 109 m3) with respect to the non-dam scenario, the negative impact has been masked due to higher-than-average rainfall. We reveal that the dam will need 3–5 more years to complete filling.
Gláuber Pontes Rodrigues, Arlena Brosinsky, Ítalo Sampaio Rodrigues, George Leite Mamede, and José Carlos de Araújo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-189, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-189, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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The research focused in a four-million-inhabitants tropical region supplied by a network of open-water reservoirs whose dry season lasts 8 months (Jun−Dec). We analysed the impact of four climate change scenarios on the evaporation rate and the associated availability (water yield distributed per year). The worst-case scenario shows that by the end of the century (2071−2099) the evaporation rate in the dry season could increase by 6 %, which would reduce the stored water by about 80 %.
Anjana Ekka, Yong Jiang, Saket Pande, and Pieter van der Zaag
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-204, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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For the first time we analyse the economic and ecological performances of existing multiple big reservoirs at daily time scale for a major river basin (Upper Cauvery) in India where pre-intervention data were not available but where there are increasing calls for such assessments. Results show that smaller reservoirs on smaller streams that maximize the economic value of water stored are better for the basin economy and the environment. The approach can help to prioritize dam removals.
Lisa Tanika, Rika Ratna Sari, Arief Lukman Hakim, Meine van Noordwijk, Marielos Peña-Claros, Beria Leimona, Edi Purwanto, and Erika N. Speelman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-154, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-154, 2023
Preprint under review for HESS
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The H2Ours game is designed to facilitate knowledge transfer and sharing among stakeholders to trigger commitments and collaborative actions to restore the hydrological conditions. The adaptability of H2Ours game was proven in two different landscapes: a groundwater recharge in upper-middle sub-watersheds with (over)use water in the lowlands zone, and a peatland with drainage-rewetting, oil palm conversion, and fire as issues. The game evaluation shows that the H2Ours game meets its purpose.
Søren J. Kragh, Rasmus Fensholt, Simon Stisen, and Julian Koch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2463–2478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, 2023
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This study investigates the precision of irrigation estimates from a global hotspot of unsustainable irrigation practice, the Indus and Ganges basins. We show that irrigation water use can be estimated with high precision by comparing satellite and rainfed hydrological model estimates of evapotranspiration. We believe that our work can support sustainable water resource management, as it addresses the uncertainty of a key component of the water balance that remains challenging to quantify.
Kerr J. Adams, Christopher A. J. Macleod, Marc J. Metzger, Nicola Melville, Rachel C. Helliwell, Jim Pritchard, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2205–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, 2023
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We applied participatory methods to create a hybrid equation-based Bayesian network (BN) model to increase stakeholder understanding of catchment-scale resilience to the impacts of both climatic and socio-economic stressors to a 2050 time horizon. Our holistic systems-thinking approach enabled stakeholders to gain new perspectives on how future scenarios may influence their specific sectors and how their sector impacted other sectors and environmental conditions within the catchment system.
Afua Owusu, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, Marloes Mul, Pieter van der Zaag, and Jill Slinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2001–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, 2023
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The construction of two dams in the Lower Volta River, Ghana, adversely affected downstream riverine ecosystems and communities. In contrast, Ghana has enjoyed vast economic benefits from the dams. Herein lies the challenge; there exists a trade-off between water for river ecosystems and water for anthropogenic water demands such hydropower. In this study, we quantify these trade-offs and show that there is room for providing environmental flows under current and future climatic conditions.
Joel Z. Harms, Julien J. Malard-Adam, Jan F. Adamowski, Ashutosh Sharma, and Albert Nkwasa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1683–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, 2023
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To facilitate the meaningful participation of stakeholders in water management, model choice is crucial. We show how system dynamics models (SDMs), which are very visual and stakeholder-friendly, can be automatically combined with physically based hydrological models that may be more appropriate for modelling the water processes of a human–water system. This allows building participatory SDMs with stakeholders and delegating hydrological components to an external hydrological model.
Pierre Laluet, Luis Olivera-Guerra, Víctor Altés, Vincent Rivalland, Alexis Jeantet, Julien Tournebize, Omar Cenobio-Cruz, Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Josep M. Villar, and Olivier Merlin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-543, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-543, 2023
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Monitoring agricultural drainage flow in irrigated areas is key to water and soil management. In this paper, four simple drainage models are evaluated on two irrigated sub-basins where drainage flow is measured daily. The evaluation of their precision shows that they simulate drainage very well when calibrated with drainage data, and that one of them is slightly better. The evaluation of their accuracy shows that only one model can provide rough drainage estimates without calibration data.
Erhu Du, Feng Wu, Hao Jiang, Naliang Guo, Yong Tian, and Chunmiao Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1607–1626, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, 2023
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This study develops an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that can simulate the entire flood management processes, including flood inundation, flood management policies, public responses, and evacuation activities. The model is able to holistically examine flood evacuation performance under the joint impacts of hydrological conditions, management policies (i.e., shelter location distribution), and human behaviors (i.e., evacuation preparation time and route-searching strategy).
Mohammad Ghoreishi, Amin Elshorbagy, Saman Razavi, Günter Blöschl, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Ahmed Abdelkader
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1201–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, 2023
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The study proposes a quantitative model of the willingness to cooperate in the Eastern Nile River basin. Our results suggest that the 2008 food crisis may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate with Ethiopia. Long-term lack of trust among the riparian countries may have reduced basin-wide cooperation. The model can be used to explore the effects of changes in future dam operations and other management decisions on the emergence of basin cooperation.
Richard Laugesen, Mark Thyer, David McInerney, and Dmitri Kavetski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 873–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, 2023
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Forecasts may be valuable for user decisions, but current practice to quantify it has critical limitations. This study introduces RUV (relative utility value, a new metric that can be tailored to specific decisions and decision-makers. It illustrates how critical this decision context is when evaluating forecast value. This study paves the way for agencies to tailor the evaluation of their services to customer decisions and researchers to study model improvements through the lens of user impact.
Efrain Noa-Yarasca, Meghna Babbar-Sebens, and Chris Jordan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 739–759, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, 2023
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Riparian vegetation has been identified as a strategy to control rising stream temperatures by shading streams. Riparian vegetation is included within a sub-basin-scale hydrological model and evaluated for full and efficient restoration scenarios. Results showed average temperature reductions of 0.91 and 0.86 °C for full and efficient riparian restoration, respectively. Notwithstanding the similar benefits, efficient restoration was 14.4 % cheaper than full riparian vegetation restoration.
Silvia Terzago, Giulio Bongiovanni, and Jost von Hardenberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 519–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, 2023
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Reliable seasonal forecasts of the abundance of mountain snowpack over the winter/spring ahead provide valuable information for water management, hydropower production and ski tourism. We present a climate service prototype to generate multi-model ensemble seasonal forecasts of mountain snow depth, based on Copernicus seasonal forecast system meteorological data used to force the SNOWPACK model. The prototype shows skill at predicting snow depth below and above normal and extremely dry seasons.
Guang Yang, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 69–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, 2023
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Participatory decision-making is a well-established approach to address the increasing pressure on water systems that searches for system-wise efficient solutions but often does not quantify how the resulting benefits are distributed across stakeholders. In this work, we show how including equity principles into the design of water system operations enriches the solution space by generating more compromise solutions that balance efficiency and justice.
Aaron Heldmyer, Ben Livneh, James McCreight, Laura Read, Joseph Kasprzyk, and Toby Minear
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6121–6136, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, 2022
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Measurements of channel characteristics are important for accurate forecasting in the NOAA National Water Model (NWM) but are scarcely available. We seek to improve channel representativeness in the NWM by updating channel geometry and roughness parameters using a large, previously unpublished, dataset of approximately 48 000 gauges. We find that the updated channel parameterization from this new dataset leads to improvements in simulated streamflow performance and channel representation.
Friedrich Boeing, Oldrich Rakovec, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, Martin Schrön, Anke Hildebrandt, Corinna Rebmann, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Müller, Steffen Zacharias, Heye Bogena, Katrin Schneider, Ralf Kiese, Sabine Attinger, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5137–5161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, 2022
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In this paper, we deliver an evaluation of the second generation operational German drought monitor (https://www.ufz.de/duerremonitor) with a state-of-the-art compilation of observed soil moisture data from 40 locations and four different measurement methods in Germany. We show that the expressed stakeholder needs for higher resolution drought information at the one-kilometer scale can be met and that the agreement of simulated and observed soil moisture dynamics can be moderately improved.
Anahi Ocampo-Melgar, Pilar Barría, Cristián Chadwick, and Cesar Rivas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5103–5118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, 2022
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This article examines how a hydrological model exploring the causes of a lake desiccation was turned into a 5-step participatory process to better adjust the model to address questions that were causing suspicions and conflicts in the community. Although the process was key in finding a combination of strategies that were of moderate impact and higher local acceptability, we address the challenges of such collaboration in modeling when conflict is deeply embedded in the context.
Ashish Shrestha, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Samuel Park, Charlotte Cherry, Margaret Garcia, David J. Yu, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4893–4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, 2022
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Equitable sharing of benefits is key to successful cooperation in transboundary water resource management. However, external changes can shift the split of benefits and shifts in the preferences regarding how an actor’s benefits compare to the other’s benefits. To understand how these changes can impact the robustness of cooperative agreements, we develop a socio-hydrological system dynamics model of the benefit sharing provision of the Columbia River Treaty and assess a series of scenarios.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Michel Bechtold, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Luca Brocca, Luca Zappa, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4685–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, 2022
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Given the crucial impact of irrigation practices on the water cycle, this study aims at estimating irrigation through the development of an innovative data assimilation system able to ingest high-resolution Sentinel-1 radar observations into the Noah-MP land surface model. The developed methodology has important implications for global water resource management and the comprehension of human impacts on the water cycle and identifies main challenges and outlooks for future research.
Yujie Zeng, Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Lihua Xiong, Pan Liu, Jiabo Yin, and Zhenhui Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3965–3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, 2022
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The sustainability of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus remains challenge, as interactions between WEF and human sensitivity and water resource allocation in water systems are often neglected. We incorporated human sensitivity and water resource allocation into a WEF nexus and assessed their impacts on the integrated system. This study can contribute to understanding the interactions across the water–energy–food–society nexus and improving the efficiency of resource management.
Judit Lienert, Jafet C. M. Andersson, Daniel Hofmann, Francisco Silva Pinto, and Martijn Kuller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2899–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, 2022
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Many western Africans encounter serious floods every year. The FANFAR project co-designed a pre-operational flood forecasting system (FEWS) with 50 key western African stakeholders. Participatory multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) helped prioritize a FEWS that meets their needs: it should provide accurate, clear, and timely flood risk information and work reliably in tough conditions. As a theoretical contribution, we propose an assessment framework for transdisciplinary hydrology research.
Donghoon Lee, Jia Yi Ng, Stefano Galelli, and Paul Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2431–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, 2022
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To fully realize the potential of seasonal streamflow forecasts in the hydropower industry, we need to understand the relationship between reservoir design specifications, forecast skill, and value. Here, we rely on realistic forecasts and simulated hydropower operations for 753 dams worldwide to unfold such relationship. Our analysis shows how forecast skill affects hydropower production, what type of dams are most likely to benefit from seasonal forecasts, and where these dams are located.
Herminia Torelló-Sentelles and Christian L. E. Franzke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1821–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022, 2022
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Drought affects many regions worldwide, and future climate projections imply that drought severity and frequency will increase. Hence, the impacts of drought on the environment and society will also increase considerably. Monitoring and early warning systems for drought rely on several indicators; however, assessments on how these indicators are linked to impacts are still lacking. Our results show that meteorological indices are best linked to impact occurrences.
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Elvira de Eyto, Andrew S. French, María Dolores Frías, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Tadhg Moore, Laura Puértolas, Russell Poole, Karsten Rinke, Muhammed Shikhani, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1389–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, 2022
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We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality, and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision-making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.
Mads Troldborg, Zisis Gagkas, Andy Vinten, Allan Lilly, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1261–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1261-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1261-2022, 2022
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Pesticides continue to pose a threat to surface water quality worldwide. Here, we present a spatial Bayesian belief network (BBN) for assessing inherent pesticide risk to water quality. The BBN was applied in a small catchment with limited data to simulate the risk of five pesticides and evaluate the likely effectiveness of mitigation measures. The probabilistic graphical model combines diverse data and explicitly accounts for uncertainties, which are often ignored in pesticide risk assessments.
Ida Karlsson Seidenfaden, Torben Obel Sonnenborg, Jens Christian Refsgaard, Christen Duus Børgesen, Jørgen Eivind Olesen, and Dennis Trolle
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 955–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-955-2022, 2022
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This study investigates how the spatial nitrate reduction in the subsurface may shift under changing climate and land use conditions. This change is investigated by comparing maps showing the spatial nitrate reduction in an agricultural catchment for current conditions, with maps generated for future projected climate and land use conditions. Results show that future climate flow paths may shift the catchment reduction noticeably, while implications of land use changes were less substantial.
Oleksandr Mialyk, Joep F. Schyns, Martijn J. Booij, and Rick J. Hogeboom
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 923–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-923-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-923-2022, 2022
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As the global demand for crops is increasing, it is vital to understand spatial and temporal patterns of crop water footprints (WFs). Previous studies looked into spatial patterns but not into temporal ones. Here, we present a new process-based gridded crop model to simulate WFs and apply it for maize in 1986–2016. We show that despite the average unit WF reduction (−35 %), the global WF of maize production has increased (+50 %), which might harm ecosystems and human livelihoods in some regions.
Wouter J. Smolenaars, Sanita Dhaubanjar, Muhammad K. Jamil, Arthur Lutz, Walter Immerzeel, Fulco Ludwig, and Hester Biemans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 861–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, 2022
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The arid plains of the lower Indus Basin rely heavily on the water provided by the mountainous upper Indus. Rapid population growth in the upper Indus is expected to increase the water that is consumed there. This will subsequently reduce the water that is available for the downstream plains, where the population and water demand are also expected to grow. In future, this may aggravate tensions over the division of water between the countries that share the Indus Basin.
Yaogeng Tan, Zengchuan Dong, Sandra M. Guzman, Xinkui Wang, and Wei Yan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6495–6522, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6495-2021, 2021
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The rapid increase in economic development and urbanization is contributing to the imbalances and conflicts between water supply and demand and further deteriorates river ecological health, which intensifies their interactions and causes water unsustainability. This paper proposes a methodology for sustainable development of water resources, considering socioeconomic development, food safety, and ecological protection, and the dynamic interactions across those water users are further assessed.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Alexander Gruber, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Renato Morbidelli, and Gabrielle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6283–6307, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, 2021
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Worldwide, the amount of water used for agricultural purposes is rising and the quantification of irrigation is becoming a crucial topic. Land surface models are not able to correctly simulate irrigation. Remote sensing observations offer an opportunity to fill this gap as they are directly affected by irrigation. We equipped a land surface model with an observation operator able to transform Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into realistic vegetation and soil states via data assimilation.
Alexis Jeantet, Hocine Henine, Cédric Chaumont, Lila Collet, Guillaume Thirel, and Julien Tournebize
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5447–5471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5447-2021, 2021
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The hydrological subsurface drainage model SIDRA-RU is assessed at the French national scale, using a unique database representing the large majority of the French drained areas. The model is evaluated following its capacity to simulate the drainage discharge variability and the annual drained water balance. Eventually, the temporal robustness of SIDRA-RU is assessed to demonstrate the utility of this model as a long-term management tool.
Nariman Mahmoodi, Jens Kiesel, Paul D. Wagner, and Nicola Fohrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5065–5081, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5065-2021, 2021
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In this study, we assessed the sustainability of water resources in a wadi region with the help of a hydrologic model. Our assessment showed that the increases in groundwater demand and consumption exacerbate the negative impact of climate change on groundwater sustainability and hydrologic regime alteration. These alterations have severe consequences for a downstream wetland and its ecosystem. The approach may be applicable in other wadi regions with different climate and water use systems.
Nahid Atashi, Dariush Rahimi, Victoria A. Sinclair, Martha A. Zaidan, Anton Rusanen, Henri Vuollekoski, Markku Kulmala, Timo Vesala, and Tareq Hussein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4719–4740, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4719-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4719-2021, 2021
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Dew formation potential during a long-term period (1979–2018) was assessed in Iran to identify dew formation zones and to investigate the impacts of long-term variation in meteorological parameters on dew formation. Six dew formation zones were identified based on cluster analysis of the time series of the simulated dew yield. The distribution of dew formation zones in Iran was closely aligned with topography and sources of moisture. The dew formation trend was significantly negative.
Kuk-Hyun Ahn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4319–4333, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4319-2021, 2021
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This study proposes a multiple-dependence model for estimating streamflow at partially gaged sites. The evaluations are conducted on a case study of the eastern USA and show that the proposed model is suited for infilling missing values. The performance is further evaluated with six other infilling models. Results demonstrate that the proposed model produces more reliable streamflow estimates than the other approaches. The model can be applicable to other hydro-climatological variables.
Xuanxuan Wang, Yaning Chen, Zhi Li, Gonghuan Fang, Fei Wang, and Haichao Hao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3281–3299, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3281-2021, 2021
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The growing water crisis in Central Asia and the complex water politics of the region's transboundary rivers are a hot topic for research, while the dynamic changes of water politics in Central Asia have yet to be studied in depth. Based on the Gini coefficient, water political events and social network analysis, we analyzed the matching degree between water and socio-economic elements and the dynamics of hydropolitics in transboundary river basins of Central Asia.
Jonathan W. Miller, Kimia Karimi, Arumugam Sankarasubramanian, and Daniel R. Obenour
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2789–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2789-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2789-2021, 2021
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Within a watershed, nutrient export can vary greatly over time and space. In this study, we develop a model to leverage over 30 years of streamflow, precipitation, and nutrient sampling data to characterize nitrogen export from various livestock and land use types across a range of precipitation conditions. Modeling results reveal that urban lands developed before 1980 have remarkably high levels of nitrogen export, while agricultural export is most responsive to precipitation.
Chia-Wen Wu, Frederick N.-F. Chou, and Fong-Zuo Lee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2063–2087, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2063-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2063-2021, 2021
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This paper promotes the feasibility of emptying instream storage through joint operation of multiple reservoirs. The trade-off between water supply and emptying reservoir storage and alleviating impacts on downstream environment are thoroughly discussed. Operation of reservoirs is optimized to calibrate the optimal parameters defining the activation and termination of emptying reservoir. The optimized strategy limits the water shortage and maximizes the expected benefits of emptying reservoir.
Yvonne Jans, Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Christoph Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2027–2044, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, 2021
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Growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To analyze the global cotton production and irrigation water consumption under spatially varying present and future climatic conditions, we use the global terrestrial biosphere model LPJmL. Our simulation results suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated [CO2] on cotton yields overcompensate yield losses from direct climate change impacts, i.e., without the beneficial effect of [CO2] fertilization.
Artemis Roodari, Markus Hrachowitz, Farzad Hassanpour, and Mostafa Yaghoobzadeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1943–1967, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, 2021
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In a combined data analysis and modeling study in the transboundary Helmand River basin, we analyzed spatial patterns of drought and changes therein based on the drought indices as well as on absolute water deficits. Overall the results illustrate that flow deficits and the associated droughts clearly reflect the dynamic interplay between temporally varying regional differences in hydro-meteorological variables together with subtle and temporally varying effects linked to human intervention.
Noemi Vergopolan, Sitian Xiong, Lyndon Estes, Niko Wanders, Nathaniel W. Chaney, Eric F. Wood, Megan Konar, Kelly Caylor, Hylke E. Beck, Nicolas Gatti, Tom Evans, and Justin Sheffield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1827–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1827-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1827-2021, 2021
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Drought monitoring and yield prediction often rely on coarse-scale hydroclimate data or (infrequent) vegetation indexes that do not always indicate the conditions farmers face in the field. Consequently, decision-making based on these indices can often be disconnected from the farmer reality. Our study focuses on smallholder farming systems in data-sparse developing countries, and it shows how field-scale soil moisture can leverage and improve crop yield prediction and drought impact assessment.
You Lu, Fuqiang Tian, Liying Guo, Iolanda Borzì, Rupesh Patil, Jing Wei, Dengfeng Liu, Yongping Wei, David J. Yu, and Murugesu Sivapalan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1883–1903, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1883-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1883-2021, 2021
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The upstream countries in the transboundary Lancang–Mekong basin build dams for hydropower, while downstream ones gain irrigation and fishery benefits. Dam operation changes the seasonality of runoff downstream, resulting in their concerns. Upstream countries may cooperate and change their regulations of dams to gain indirect political benefits. The socio-hydrological model couples hydrology, reservoir, economy, and cooperation and reproduces the phenomena, providing a useful model framework.
Jessica A. Bou Nassar, Julien J. Malard, Jan F. Adamowski, Marco Ramírez Ramírez, Wietske Medema, and Héctor Tuy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1283–1306, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1283-2021, 2021
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Our research suggests a method that facilitates the inclusion of marginalized stakeholders in model-building activities to address problems in water resources. Our case study showed that knowledge produced by typically excluded stakeholders had significant and unique contributions to the outcome of the process. Moreover, our method facilitated the identification of relationships between societal, economic, and hydrological factors, and it fostered collaborations across different communities.
Marc Girons Lopez, Louise Crochemore, and Ilias G. Pechlivanidis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1189–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021, 2021
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The Swedish hydrological warning service is extending its use of seasonal forecasts, which requires an analysis of the available methods. We evaluate the simple ESP method and find out how and why forecasts vary in time and space. We find that forecasts are useful up to 3 months into the future, especially during winter and in northern Sweden. They tend to be good in slow-reacting catchments and bad in flashy and highly regulated ones. We finally link them with areas of similar behaviour.
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Short summary
Increasing amounts of water are used for agriculture. Therefore, we looked into how irrigation requirements will evolve under a changing climate over Europe. Our results show that, by the end of the century and under high emissions, irrigation water will increase by 30 % on average compared to the year 2000. Also, the irrigation requirement is likely to vary more from 1 year to another. However, if emissions are mitigated, these effects are reduced.
Increasing amounts of water are used for agriculture. Therefore, we looked into how irrigation...
