Articles | Volume 26, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-149-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-149-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Jan 2022
Research article |
| 12 Jan 2022
| 12 Jan 2022
A space–time Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework for projection of seasonal maximum streamflow
Álvaro Ossandón
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Departamento de Obras Civiles, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Valparaíso, Chile
Manuela I. Brunner
Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
Balaji Rajagopalan
Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
William Kleiber
Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
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Sadaf Nasreen, Oldrich Rakovec, Rohini Kumar, Manuela I. Brunner, Ujjwal Singh, Petr Maca, Yannis Markonis, and Martin Hanel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-973, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-973, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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European droughts threaten water and agriculture, but how distinct drought processes will change under warming is uncertain. We examine seven mechanisms across Europe using 1971 to 2000 observations and 2070 to 2099 projections. Changes are regional: the Mediterranean shifts to longer, more severe droughts, while Northern and Western Central Europe often improve. Temperature-driven mechanisms, especially rain to snow transitions, respond most, guiding targeted adaptation.
Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, Bailey J. Anderson, Paul C. Astagneau, Daniel L. Swain, Pablo A. Mendoza, and Manuela I. Brunner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 825–848, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-825-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-825-2026, 2026
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Flood impacts can be enhanced when they occur after droughts, yet the effectiveness of hydrological models in simulating these events remains unclear. Here, we calibrated four conceptual hydrological models across 63 catchments in Chile and Switzerland to assess their ability to detect streamflow extremes and their transitions. We show that drought-to-flood transitions are generally poorly captured, especially in semi-arid high-mountain catchments than in humid low-elevation ones.
Jonas Götte, Paul Charles Astagneau, and Manuela Irene Brunner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6119, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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While the effect of water bodies on flood peaks at different time resolutions has been demonstrated in the past, it remains unclear how they affect the ratio between daily and hourly peaks. Our results show that (1) hourly flows are dampened much more strongly than daily flows, which leads to similar daily and hourly flood peaks downstream of reservoirs; and (2) the attenuation effect is particularly pronounced in catchments that are heavily influenced by water bodies.
Matthew LeDuc, Tomoko Matsuo, and William Kleiber
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5570, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5570, 2025
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We propose a new approach for inverse problems involving ratios of photon counts. We show that the method is computationally efficient and accurately handles the uncertainty introduced by count data. We demonstrate the method by estimating the temperature in the upper atmosphere in both calm and geomagnetically active conditions. We also present results that suggest this method can allow extension of these temperature retrievals to more times of day than current techniques.
Joren Janzing, Niko Wanders, Marit van Tiel, Barry van Jaarsveld, Dirk N. Karger, and Manuela I. Brunner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 7041–7071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-7041-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-7041-2025, 2025
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Process representation in hyper-resolution large-scale hydrological models (LHMs) limits model performance, particularly in mountain regions. Here, we update mountain process representation in an LHM and compare different meteorological forcing products. Structural and parametric changes in snow, glacier, and soil processes improve discharge simulations, while meteorological forcing remains a major control on model performance. Our work can guide future development of LHMs.
Bailey J. Anderson, Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, Lena M. Tallaksen, Alessia Matano, Jonas Götte, Rachael Armitage, Eugene Magee, and Manuela I. Brunner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 6069–6092, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6069-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6069-2025, 2025
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When floods happen during or shortly after droughts, the impacts of each of the events can be magnified. In hydrological research, defining these events represents a challenging and important task in the process of understanding where and why they occur. We have used real-word examples to address some of these challenges and show different approaches influence outcomes. We make suggestions on when to use which approach and outline some pitfalls of which researchers should be aware.
Jan P. Bohl, Raul R. Wood, Corinna Frank, Paul C. Astagneau, Jonas Peters, and Manuela I. Brunner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5201, 2025
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To assess climate impacts on streamflow, we need models that can predict streamflow under future conditions. This study compares three model types: data-driven (LSTM), conceptual (HBV), and hybrid (LSTM-HBV). LSTMs perform best overall, but HBV and hybrid models generalize better to warmer climates. Hybrid models are a promising tool for climate impact assessments, combining LSTMs accuracy with better generalizability of traditional models. In snowy regions, all models struggle to generalize.
Paul C. Astagneau, Raul R. Wood, Mathieu Vrac, Sven Kotlarski, Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Bastien François, and Manuela I. Brunner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 5695–5718, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5695-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5695-2025, 2025
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To study floods and droughts that are likely to change in the future, we use climate projections from climate models. However, we first need to adjust the systematic biases of these projections at the catchment scale before using them in hydrological models. Our study compares statistical methods that can adjust these biases but specifically for climate projections that enable a quantification of internal climate variability. We provide recommendations on the most appropriate methods.
Raul R. Wood, Joren Janzing, Amber van Hamel, Jonas Götte, Dominik L. Schumacher, and Manuela I. Brunner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 4153–4178, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4153-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4153-2025, 2025
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Continuous and high-quality meteorological datasets are crucial to study extreme hydro-climatic events. We here conduct a comprehensive spatio-temporal evaluation of precipitation and temperature for four climate reanalysis datasets, focusing on mean and extreme metrics, variability, trends, and the representation of droughts and floods over Switzerland. Our analysis shows that all datasets have some merit when limitations are considered, and that one dataset performs better than the others.
Amber van Hamel, Peter Molnar, Joren Janzing, and Manuela Irene Brunner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2975–2995, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2975-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2975-2025, 2025
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Suspended sediment is a natural component of rivers, but extreme suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) can have negative impacts on water use and aquatic ecosystems. We identify the main factors influencing the spatial and temporal variability of annual SSC regimes and extreme SSC events. Our analysis shows that different processes are more important for annual SSC regimes than for extreme events and that compound events driven by glacial melt and high-intensity rainfall led to the highest SSCs.
Alessia Matanó, Raed Hamed, Manuela I. Brunner, Marlies H. Barendrecht, and Anne F. Van Loon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2749–2764, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2749-2025, 2025
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Persistent droughts change how rivers respond to rainfall. Our study of over 5000 catchments worldwide found that hydrological and soil moisture droughts decrease river-flow response to rain, especially in arid regions, while vegetation decline slightly increases it. Snow-covered areas are more resilient due to stored water buffering changes. Droughts can also cause long-lasting changes, with short and intense droughts reducing river response to rainfall and prolonged droughts increasing it.
Emma Ford, Manuela I. Brunner, Hannah Christensen, and Louise Slater
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1493, 2025
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This study aims to improve prediction and understanding of extreme flood events in UK near-natural catchments. We develop a machine learning framework to assess the contribution of different features to flood magnitude estimation. We find weather patterns are weak predictors and stress the importance of evaluating model performance across and within catchments.
Sebastian I. Cantarero, Edgart Flores, Harry Allbrook, Paulina Aguayo, Cristian A. Vargas, John E. Tamanaha, J. Bentley C. Scholz, Lennart T. Bach, Carolin R. Löscher, Ulf Riebesell, Balaji Rajagopalan, Nadia Dildar, and Julio Sepúlveda
Biogeosciences, 21, 3927–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3927-2024, 2024
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Our study explores lipid remodeling in response to environmental stress, specifically how cell membrane chemistry changes. We focus on intact polar lipids in a phytoplankton community exposed to diverse stressors in a mesocosm experiment. The observed remodeling indicates acyl chain recycling for energy storage in intact polar lipids during stress, reallocating resources based on varying growth conditions. This understanding is essential to grasp the system's impact on cellular pools.
Bailey J. Anderson, Manuela I. Brunner, Louise J. Slater, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1567–1583, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1567-2024, 2024
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Elasticityrefers to how much the amount of water in a river changes with precipitation. We usually calculate this using average streamflow values; however, the amount of water within rivers is also dependent on stored water sources. Here, we look at how elasticity varies across the streamflow distribution and show that not only do low and high streamflows respond differently to precipitation change, but also these differences vary with water storage availability.
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
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We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Marvin Höge, Martina Kauzlaric, Rosi Siber, Ursula Schönenberger, Pascal Horton, Jan Schwanbeck, Marius Günter Floriancic, Daniel Viviroli, Sibylle Wilhelm, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Nans Addor, Manuela Brunner, Sandra Pool, Massimiliano Zappa, and Fabrizio Fenicia
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5755–5784, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5755-2023, 2023
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CAMELS-CH is an open large-sample hydro-meteorological data set that covers 331 catchments in hydrologic Switzerland from 1 January 1981 to 31 December 2020. It comprises (a) daily data of river discharge and water level as well as meteorologic variables like precipitation and temperature; (b) yearly glacier and land cover data; (c) static attributes of, e.g, topography or human impact; and (d) catchment delineations. CAMELS-CH enables water and climate research and modeling at catchment level.
Manuela Irene Brunner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2479–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2479-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2479-2023, 2023
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I discuss different types of multivariate hydrological extremes and their dependencies, including regional extremes affecting multiple locations, such as spatially connected flood events; consecutive extremes occurring in close temporal succession, such as successive droughts; extremes characterized by multiple characteristics, such as floods with jointly high peak discharge and flood volume; and transitions between different types of extremes, such as drought-to-flood transitions.
Edward H. Bair, Jeff Dozier, Karl Rittger, Timbo Stillinger, William Kleiber, and Robert E. Davis
The Cryosphere, 17, 2629–2643, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2629-2023, 2023
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To test the title question, three snow cover products were used in a snow model. Contrary to previous work, higher-spatial-resolution snow cover products only improved the model accuracy marginally. Conclusions are as follows: (1) snow cover and albedo from moderate-resolution sensors continue to provide accurate forcings and (2) finer spatial and temporal resolutions are the future for Earth observations, but existing moderate-resolution sensors still offer value.
Elsa S. Culler, Ben Livneh, Balaji Rajagopalan, and Kristy F. Tiampo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1631–1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, 2023
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Landslides have often been observed in the aftermath of wildfires. This study explores regional patterns in the rainfall that caused landslides both after fires and in unburned locations. In general, landslides that occur after fires are triggered by less rainfall, confirming that fire helps to set the stage for landslides. However, there are regional differences in the ways in which fire impacts landslides, such as the size and direction of shifts in the seasonality of landslides after fires.
Manuela Irene Brunner and Philippe Naveau
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 673–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-673-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-673-2023, 2023
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Reservoir regulation affects various streamflow characteristics. Still, information on when water is stored in and released from reservoirs is hardly available. We develop a statistical model to reconstruct reservoir operation signals from observed streamflow time series. By applying this approach to 74 catchments in the Alps, we find that reservoir management varies by catchment elevation and that seasonal redistribution from summer to winter is strongest in high-elevation catchments.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
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Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Manuela I. Brunner and Louise J. Slater
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 469–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-469-2022, 2022
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Assessing the rarity and magnitude of very extreme flood events occurring less than twice a century is challenging due to the lack of observations of such rare events. Here we develop a new approach, pooling reforecast ensemble members from the European Flood Awareness System to increase the sample size available to estimate the frequency of extreme flood events. We demonstrate that such ensemble pooling produces more robust estimates than observation-based estimates.
Zofia Stanley, Ian Grooms, and William Kleiber
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 565–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-565-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-565-2021, 2021
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In weather forecasting, observations are incorporated into a model of the atmosphere through a process called data assimilation. Sometimes observations in one location may impact the weather forecast in another faraway location in undesirable ways. The impact of distant observations on the forecast is mitigated through a process called localization. We propose a new method for localization when a model has multiple length scales, as in a model spanning both the ocean and the atmosphere.
Manuela I. Brunner, Eric Gilleland, and Andrew W. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021, 2021
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Compound hot and dry events can lead to severe impacts whose severity may depend on their timescale and spatial extent. Here, we show that the spatial extent and timescale of compound hot–dry events are strongly related, spatial compound event extents are largest at
sub-seasonal timescales, and short events are driven more by high temperatures, while longer events are more driven by low precipitation. Future climate impact studies should therefore be performed at different timescales.
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Short summary
Timely projections of seasonal streamflow extremes on a river network can be useful for flood risk mitigation, but this is challenging, particularly under space–time nonstationarity. We develop a space–time Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) using temporal climate covariates and copulas to project seasonal streamflow extremes and the attendant uncertainties. We demonstrate this on the Upper Colorado River basin to project spring flow extremes using the preceding winter’s climate teleconnections.
Timely projections of seasonal streamflow extremes on a river network can be useful for flood...
