Articles | Volume 25, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5641-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5641-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Nov 2021
Research article |
| 03 Nov 2021
| 03 Nov 2021
Land use and climate change effects on water yield from East African forested water towers
Charles Nduhiu Wamucii
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Wageningen
University & Research, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Pieter R. van Oel
Water Resources Management Group, Wageningen University & Research, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Arend Ligtenberg
Laboratory of Geo-information Science and Remote Sensing,
Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University & Research, 6708 PB
Wageningen, the Netherlands
John Mwangi Gathenya
Soil, Water and Environmental Engineering Department, School of
Biosystems and Environmental Engineering, Jomo Kenyatta University of
Agriculture and Technology, P.O. Box 62000 – 00200 Nairobi, Kenya
Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Wageningen
University & Research, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Related authors
Charles Nduhiu Wamucii, Pieter R. van Oel, Adriaan J. Teuling, Arend Ligtenberg, John Mwangi Gathenya, Gert Jan Hofstede, Meine van Noordwijk, and Erika N. Speelman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3495–3518, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study explored the role of serious gaming in strengthening stakeholder engagement in addressing human–water challenges. The gaming approach guided community discussions toward implementable decisions. The results showed increased active participation, knowledge gain, and use of plural pronouns. We observed decreased individual interests and conflicts among game participants. The study presents important implications for creating a collective basis for water resources management.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1993–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1993-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1993-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Drought affects not only water availability but also agriculture, the economy, and communities. This study explores how public policies help reduce these impacts in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. Using qualitative drought monitoring data, interviews, and policy analysis, we found that policies supporting local economies help lessen drought effects. However, most reported impacts are still related to water shortages, showing the need for broader strategies beyond water supply investment.
Devi Purnamasari, Adriaan J. Teuling, and Albrecht H. Weerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1483–1503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1483-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1483-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a method to identify irrigated areas by combining hydrology models with satellite temperature data. Our method was tested in the Rhine basin and aligns well with official statistics. It performs best in regions with large farms and less well in areas with small farms. Observed differences to existing data are influenced by data resolution and methods.
Sarra Kchouk, Louise Cavalcante, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Rubens Gondim, Wouter J. Smolenaars, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts impact water and people, yet monitoring often overlooks impacts on people. In northeastern Brazil, we compare official data to local experiences, finding data mismatches and blind spots. Mismatches occur due to the data's broad scope missing finer details. Blind spots arise from ignoring diverse community responses and vulnerabilities to droughts. We suggest enhanced monitoring by technical extension officers for both severe and mild droughts.
Janneke O. E. Remmers, Rozemarijn ter Horst, Ehsan Nabavi, Ulrike Proske, Adriaan J. Teuling, Jeroen Vos, and Lieke A. Melsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-673, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In hydrological modelling, a notion exists that a model is a neutral tool. However, this notion has several, possibly harmful, consequences. In critical social sciences, this non-neutrality in methods and results is an established topic of debate. We propose that in order to deal with it in hydrological modelling, the hydrological modelling network can learn from, and with, critical social sciences. The main lesson, from our perspective, is that responsible modelling is a shared responsibility.
Adriaan J. Teuling, Belle Holthuis, and Jasper F. D. Lammers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3799–3806, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3799-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3799-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The understanding of spatio-temporal variability of evapotranspiration (ET) is currently limited by a lack of measurement techniques that are low cost and that can be applied anywhere at any time. Here we show that evapotranspiration can be estimated accurately using observations made by smartphone sensors, suggesting that smartphone-based ET monitoring could provide a realistic and low-cost alternative for real-time ET estimation in the field.
Charles Nduhiu Wamucii, Pieter R. van Oel, Adriaan J. Teuling, Arend Ligtenberg, John Mwangi Gathenya, Gert Jan Hofstede, Meine van Noordwijk, and Erika N. Speelman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3495–3518, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study explored the role of serious gaming in strengthening stakeholder engagement in addressing human–water challenges. The gaming approach guided community discussions toward implementable decisions. The results showed increased active participation, knowledge gain, and use of plural pronouns. We observed decreased individual interests and conflicts among game participants. The study presents important implications for creating a collective basis for water resources management.
Jasper M. C. Denissen, Adriaan J. Teuling, Sujan Koirala, Markus Reichstein, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Martha M. Vogel, Xin Yu, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 717–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-717-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Heat extremes have severe implications for human health and ecosystems. Heat extremes are mostly introduced by large-scale atmospheric circulation but can be modulated by vegetation. Vegetation with access to water uses solar energy to evaporate water into the atmosphere. Under dry conditions, water may not be available, suppressing evaporation and heating the atmosphere. Using climate projections, we show that regionally less water is available for vegetation, intensifying future heat extremes.
Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Sarra Kchouk, Lieke A. Melsen, Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Art Dewulf, Alexandre C. Costa, Eduardo S. P. R. Martins, and Pieter R. van Oel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4217–4225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4217-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4217-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
People induce and modify droughts. However, we do not know exactly how relevant human and natural processes interact nor how to evaluate the co-evolution of people and water. Prospect theory can help us to explain the emergence of drought impacts leading to failed welfare expectations (“prospects”) due to water shortage. Our approach helps to explain socio-hydrological phenomena, such as reservoir effects, and can contribute to integrated drought management considering the local context.
Awad M. Ali, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4057–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new approach based on a combination of modeling and Earth observation, useful information about the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can be obtained with limited data and proper rainfall selection. While the monthly streamflow into Sudan has decreased significantly (1.2 × 109–5 × 109 m3) with respect to the non-dam scenario, the negative impact has been masked due to higher-than-average rainfall. We reveal that the dam will need 3–5 more years to complete filling.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Adrià Fontrodona-Bach, Bettina Schaefli, Ross Woods, Adriaan J. Teuling, and Joshua R. Larsen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2577–2599, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2577-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a dataset of snow water equivalent, the depth of liquid water that results from melting a given depth of snow. The dataset contains 11 071 sites over the Northern Hemisphere, spans the period 1950–2022, and is based on daily observations of snow depth on the ground and a model. The dataset fills a lack of accessible historical ground snow data, and it can be used for a variety of applications such as the impact of climate change on global and regional snow and water resources.
Luuk D. van der Valk, Adriaan J. Teuling, Luc Girod, Norbert Pirk, Robin Stoffer, and Chiel C. van Heerwaarden
The Cryosphere, 16, 4319–4341, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4319-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4319-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Most large-scale hydrological and climate models struggle to capture the spatially highly variable wind-driven melt of patchy snow cover. In the field, we find that 60 %–80 % of the total melt is wind driven at the upwind edge of a snow patch, while it does not contribute at the downwind edge. Our idealized simulations show that the variation is due to a patch-size-independent air-temperature reduction over snow patches and also allow us to study the role of wind-driven snowmelt on larger scales.
Alessandro Montemagno, Christophe Hissler, Victor Bense, Adriaan J. Teuling, Johanna Ziebel, and Laurent Pfister
Biogeosciences, 19, 3111–3129, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3111-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3111-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the biogeochemical processes that dominate the release and retention of elements (nutrients and potentially toxic elements) during litter degradation. Our results show that toxic elements are retained in the litter, while nutrients are released in solution during the first stages of degradation. This seems linked to the capability of trees to distribute the elements between degradation-resistant and non-degradation-resistant compounds of leaves according to their chemical nature.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Linqi Zhang, Yi Liu, Liliang Ren, Adriaan J. Teuling, Ye Zhu, Linyong Wei, Linyan Zhang, Shanhu Jiang, Xiaoli Yang, Xiuqin Fang, and Hang Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3241–3261, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3241-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3241-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, three machine learning methods displayed a good detection capacity of flash droughts. The RF model was recommended to estimate the depletion rate of soil moisture and simulate flash drought by considering the multiple meteorological variable anomalies in the adjacent time to drought onset. The anomalies of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration exhibited a stronger synergistic but asymmetrical effect on flash droughts compared to slowly developing droughts.
Femke A. Jansen, Remko Uijlenhoet, Cor M. J. Jacobs, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2875–2898, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2875-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the controls on open water evaporation with a focus on Lake IJssel, the Netherlands, by analysing eddy covariance observations over two summer periods at two locations at the borders of the lake. Wind speed and the vertical vapour pressure gradient can explain most of the variation in observed evaporation, which is in agreement with Dalton's model. We argue that the distinct characteristics of inland waterbodies need to be taken into account when parameterizing their evaporation.
Arend Ligtenberg, Monique Simons, Marjolein Barhorst, and Laura Winkens
AGILE GIScience Ser., 3, 45, https://doi.org/10.5194/agile-giss-3-45-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/agile-giss-3-45-2022, 2022
Sarra Kchouk, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 323–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of our study was to question the validity of the assumed direct linkage between drivers of drought and its impacts on water and food securities, mainly found in the frameworks of drought early warning systems (DEWSs). We analysed more than 5000 scientific studies leading us to the conclusion that the local context can contribute to drought drivers resulting in these drought impacts. Our research aims to increase the relevance and utility of the information provided by DEWSs.
Peter T. La Follette, Adriaan J. Teuling, Nans Addor, Martyn Clark, Koen Jansen, and Lieke A. Melsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5425–5446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5425-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological models are useful tools that allow us to predict distributions and movement of water. A variety of numerical methods are used by these models. We demonstrate which numerical methods yield large errors when subject to extreme precipitation. As the climate is changing such that extreme precipitation is more common, we find that some numerical methods are better suited for use in hydrological models. Also, we find that many current hydrological models use relatively inaccurate methods.
Joost Buitink, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 387–400, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-387-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-387-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Higher temperatures influence both evaporation and snow processes. These two processes have a large effect on discharge but have distinct roles during different seasons. In this study, we study how higher temperatures affect the discharge via changed evaporation and snow dynamics. Higher temperatures lead to enhanced evaporation but increased melt from glaciers, overall lowering the discharge. During the snowmelt season, discharge was reduced further due to the earlier depletion of snow.
Jolijn van Engelenburg, Erik van Slobbe, Adriaan J. Teuling, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Petra Hellegers
Drink. Water Eng. Sci., 14, 1–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/dwes-14-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/dwes-14-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study analysed the impact of extreme weather events, water quality deterioration, and a growing drinking water demand on the sustainability of drinking water supply in the Netherlands. The results of the case studies were compared to sustainability issues for drinking water supply that are experienced worldwide. This resulted in a set of sustainability characteristics describing drinking water supply on a local scale in terms of hydrological, technical, and socio-economic characteristics.
Theresa C. van Hateren, Marco Chini, Patrick Matgen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-583, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-583, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Agricultural droughts occur when the water content of the soil diminishes to such a level that vegetation is negatively impacted. Here we show that, although they are classified as the same type of drought, substantial differences between soil moisture and vegetation droughts exist. This duality is not included in the term agricultural drought, and thus is a potential issue in drought research. We argue that a distinction should be made between soil moisture and vegetation drought events.
Joost Buitink, Anne M. Swank, Martine van der Ploeg, Naomi E. Smith, Harm-Jan F. Benninga, Frank van der Bolt, Coleen D. U. Carranza, Gerbrand Koren, Rogier van der Velde, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 6021–6031, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6021-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6021-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The amount of water stored in the soil is critical for the productivity of plants. Plant productivity is either limited by the available water or by the available energy. In this study, we infer this transition point by comparing local observations of water stored in the soil with satellite observations of vegetation productivity. We show that the transition point is not constant with soil depth, indicating that plants use water from deeper layers when the soil gets drier.
Joost Buitink, Lieke A. Melsen, James W. Kirchner, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6093–6110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6093-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6093-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new distributed hydrological model: the distributed simple dynamical systems (dS2) model. The model is built with a focus on computational efficiency and is therefore able to simulate basins at high spatial and temporal resolution at a low computational cost. Despite the simplicity of the model concept, it is able to correctly simulate discharge in both small and mesoscale basins.
Jasper Foets, Carlos E. Wetzel, Núria Martínez-Carreras, Adriaan J. Teuling, Jean-François Iffly, and Laurent Pfister
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4709–4725, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4709-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4709-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Diatoms (microscopic algae) are regarded as useful tracers in catchment hydrology. However, diatom analysis is labour-intensive; therefore, only a limited number of samples can be analysed. To reduce this number, we explored the potential for a time-integrated mass-flux sampler to provide a representative sample of the diatom assemblage for a whole storm run-off event. Our results indicate that the Phillips sampler did indeed sample representative communities during two of the three events.
Caspar T. J. Roebroek, Lieke A. Melsen, Anne J. Hoek van Dijke, Ying Fan, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4625–4639, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4625-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4625-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation is a principal component in the Earth system models that are used for weather, climate and other environmental predictions. Water is one of the main drivers of vegetation; however, the global distribution of how water influences vegetation is not well understood. This study looks at spatial patterns of photosynthesis and water sources (rain and groundwater) to obtain a first understanding of water access and limitations for the growth of global forests (proxy for natural vegetation).
Anne J. Hoek van Dijke, Kaniska Mallick, Martin Schlerf, Miriam Machwitz, Martin Herold, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Biogeosciences, 17, 4443–4457, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4443-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4443-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the link between the vegetation leaf area index (LAI) and the land–atmosphere exchange of water, energy, and carbon fluxes. We show that the correlation between the LAI and water and energy fluxes depends on the vegetation type and aridity. For carbon fluxes, however, the correlation with the LAI was strong and independent of vegetation and aridity. This study provides insight into when the vegetation LAI can be used to model or extrapolate land–atmosphere fluxes.
Cited articles
Alcamo, J., Flörke, M., and Märker, M.: Future long-term changes in
global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes,
Hydrolog. Sci. J., 52, 247–275, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.2.247, 2007.
Aleman, J. C., Jarzyna, M. A., and Staver, A. C.: Forest extent and
deforestation in tropical Africa since, Nat. Ecol. Evol., 2, 26–33,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0406-1, 2018.
Astuti, H. P. and Suryatmojo, H.: Water in the forest: Rain-vegetation
interaction to estimate canopy interception in a tropical borneo rainforest,
IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci., 361, 012035,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/361/1/012035, 2019.
Bai, P., Zhang, D., and Liu, C.: Estimation of the Budyko model parameter
for small basins in China, Hydrol. Process., 34, 125–138,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13577, 2019.
Booij, M. J., Schipper, T. C., and Marhaento, H.: Attributing changes in
streamflow to land use and climate change for 472 catchments in australia
and the United States, Water, 11, 1059, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11051059, 2019.
Bosch, J. M. and Hewlett, J. D.: A review of catchment experiments to
determine the effect of vegetation changes on water yield and
evapotranspiration, J. Hydrol., 55, 3–23,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(82)90117-2, 1982.
Budyko, M. I.: Climate and Life, Acad. Press, New York, 18, 1st Edition, 1974.
Chebet, C.: Environmental degradation to blame for swelling of Rift Valley
lakes, Stand. Media, Kenya, 2020.
Chepkoech, A.: Kenya: Rift Valley Lakes Water Levels Rise Dangerously, Dly.
Nation, Kenya, 2020.
Climatic Research Unit (University of East Anglia) and NCAS: High-resolution gridded datasets (and derived products), available at: https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/, last access: 22 July 2020.
Convention on Biological Diversity: Biodiversity of Dry and Sub-Humid Land Ecosystems, Secr. Conv. Biol. Divers., available at: https://www.cbd.int/gbo1/chap-01.shtml (last access: 20 May 2021), 2007.
Creed, I. and Spargo, A.: Application of the Budyko curve to explore
sustainability of water yields from headwater catchments under changing
environmental conditions, in: Ecological Society of America, 5–10 August 2012, Portland, 2012a.
Creed, I. and Spargo, A.: Budyko guide to exploring sustainability of water
yields from catchments under changing environmental conditions, Meet.
IAHS-PUB (Prediction Ungauged Basins) Symp. “Completion IAHS Decad.
Predict. Ungauged Basins W. ahead”, 59, 2012b.
Creed, I., Spargo, A., Jones, J., Buttle, J., Adams, M., Beall, F. D.,
Booth, E. G., Campbell, J. L., Clow, D., Elder, K., Green, M. B., Grimm, N.
B., Miniat, C., Ramlal, P., Saha, A., Sebestyen, S., Spittlehouse, D.,
Sterling, S., Williams, M. W., Winkler, R., and Yao, H.: Changing forest
water yields in response to climate warming: Results from long-term
experimental watershed sites across North America, Glob. Change Biol., 20,
3191–3208, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12615, 2014.
Daron, J. D.: Regional Climate Messages: East Africa, Scientific report from the CARIAA Adaptation at Scale in Semi-Arid Regions (ASSAR), Project Report, University of Cape Town, South Africa, 2014.
Dawson, J. B.: The Gregory Rift Valley and Neogene-recent Volcanoes of
Northern Tanzania, Geological Society, Memoir 13, 2008.
Dewi, S., Van Noordwijk, M., Zulkarnain, M. T., Dwiputra, A., Hyman, G.,
Prabhu, R., Gitz, V., and Nasi, R.: Tropical forest-transition landscapes: a
portfolio for studying people, tree crops and agro-ecological change in
context, Int. J. Biodivers. Sci. Ecosyst. Serv. Manag., 13, 312–329,
https://doi.org/10.1080/21513732.2017.1360394, 2017.
Dey, P. and Mishra, A.: Separating the impacts of climate change and human
activities on streamflow: A review of methodologies and critical
assumptions, J. Hydrol., 548, 278–290,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.014, 2017.
Donohue, R. J., Roderick, M. L., and McVicar, T. R.: On the importance of including vegetation dynamics in Budyko's hydrological model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 983–995, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-983-2007, 2007.
Du, C., Sun, F., Yu, J., Liu, X., and Chen, Y.: New interpretation of the role of water balance in an extended Budyko hypothesis in arid regions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 393–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-393-2016, 2016.
EAC, UNEP, and GRID-Arendal: Sustainable Mountain Development in East Africa
in a Changing Climate, East African Community, United Nations Environment
Programme and GRID-Arendal, Arusha, Nairobi and Arendal, 100 pp., 2016.
El Tom, M. A.: The Reliability of Rainfall over the Sudan, Geogr. Ann.
Ser. A , 54, 28–31, 1972.
Ekström, M., Jones, P. D., Fowler, H. J., Lenderink, G., Buishand, T. A., and Conway, D.: Regional climate model data used within the SWURVE project – 1: projected changes in seasonal patterns and estimation of PET, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1069–1083, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1069-2007, 2007.
Ellison, D., Morris, C. E., Locatelli, B., Sheil, D., Cohen, J., Murdiyarso,
D., Gutierrez, V., Noordwijk, M. van, Creed, I. F., Pokorny, J., Gaveau, D.,
Spracklen, D. V., Tobella, A. B., Ilstedt, U., Teuling, A. J., Gebrehiwot,
S. G., Sands, D. C., Muys, B., Verbist, B., Springgay, E., Sugandi, Y., and
Sullivan, C. A.: Trees, forests and water: Cool insights for a hot world,
Global Environ. Chang., 43, 51–61,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.01.002, 2017.
Fekete, B. M., Vörösmarty, C. J., and Grabs, W.: High-resolution
fields of global runoff combining observed river discharge and simulated
water balances, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 16, 15-1–15-10,
https://doi.org/10.1029/1999gb001254, 2002.
Frank, D. C., Poulter, B., Saurer, M., Esper, J., Huntingford, C., Helle,
G., and Treydte, K.: Water-use efficiency and transpiration across European
forests during the Anthropocene, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 579–584, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2614,
2015.
Funk, C., Peterson, P., Landsfeld, M., Pedreros, D., Verdin, J., Shukla, S.,
Husak, G., Rowland, J., Harrison, L., Hoell, A., and Michaelsen, J.: The
climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations – A new environmental
record for monitoring extremes, Sci. Data, 2, 1–21,
https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66, 2015.
Gabiri, G., Diekkrüger, B., Näschen, K., Leemhuis, C., van der
Linden, R., Mwanjalolo Majaliwa, J. G., and Obando, J. A.: Impact of Climate
and Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Water Resources of a Tropical Inland
Valley, 83, 1–25, 2020.
Gash, J. H. C., Wright, I. R., and Lloyd, C. R.: Comparative estimates of
interception loss from three coniferous forests in Great Britain, J.
Hydrol., 48, 89–105, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(80)90068-2, 1980.
Gebrehiwot, S. G., Gärdenäs, A. I., Bewket, W., Seibert, J.,
Ilstedt, U., and Bishop, K.: The long-term hydrology of East Africa's water
tower: Statistical change detection in the watersheds of the Abbay Basin,
Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 321–331,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0491-x, 2014.
Giannini, A., Lyon, B., Seager, R., and Vigaud, N.: Dynamical and
Thermodynamic Elements of Modeled Climate Change at the East African Margin
of Convection, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 992–1000,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075486, 2018.
Gunkel, A. and Lange, J.: Water scarcity, data scarcity and the Budyko
curve – An application in the Lower Jordan River Basin, J. Hydrol. Reg.
Stud., 12, 136–149, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.04.004, 2017.
Guzha, A. C., Rufino, M. C., Okoth, S., Jacobs, S., and Nóbrega, R. L.
B.: Impacts of land use and land cover change on surface runoff, discharge
and low flows: Evidence from East Africa, J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., 15, 49–67,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.11.005, 2018.
Han, J., Yang, Y., and Roderick, M. L.: Assessing the Steady – State
Assumption in Water Balance Calculation Across Global Catchments, Water
Resour. Res., 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027392, 2020.
Harris, I., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P., and Lister, D.: Version 4 of the CRU
TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset, Sci. Data,
7, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0453-3, 2020.
Heidari, H., Warziniack, T., Brown, T. C., and Arabi, M.: Impacts of Climate
Change on Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. National Forests and Grasslands, Forests,
12, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.3390/f12020139, 2021.
Helman, D., Lensky, I. M., Yakir, D., and Osem, Y.: Forests growing under
dry conditions have higher hydrological resilience to drought than do more
humid forests, Glob. Change Biol., 23, 2801–2817,
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13551, 2017.
Hulme, M.: The Changing Rainfall Resources of Sudan, R. Geogr. Soc., 15, 21–34,
https://doi.org/10.2307/623090, 1990.
Huntington, T. G.: CO2-induced suppression of transpiration cannot explain
increasing runoff, Hydrol. Process., 22, 311–314,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6925, 2008.
Hyandye, C. B., Worqul, A., Martz, L. W., and Muzuka, A. N. N.: The impact
of future climate and land use/cover change on water resources in the
Ndembera watershed and their mitigation and adaptation strategies, Environ.
Syst. Res., 7, 7, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40068-018-0110-4, 2018.
Immerzeel, W. W., Lutz, A. F., Andrade, M., Bahl, A., Biemans, H., Bolch,
T., Hyde, S., Brumby, S., Davies, B. J., Elmore, A. C., Emmer, A., Feng, M.,
Fernández, A., Haritashya, U., Kargel, J. S., Koppes, M., Kraaijenbrink,
P. D. A., Kulkarni, A. V., Mayewski, P. A., Nepal, S., Pacheco, P., Painter,
T. H., Pellicciotti, F., Rajaram, H., Rupper, S., Sinisalo, A., Shrestha, A.
B., Viviroli, D., Wada, Y., Xiao, C., Yao, T., and Baillie, J. E. M.:
Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers, Nature, 577,
364–369, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1822-y, 2020.
Integrating Population, Health, and Environment in Ethiopia's Bale
Mountains:
https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2010/04/integrating-population-health-and-environment-in-ethiopias-bale-mountains, last access: 19 May 2021.
Jacobs, S. R., Timbe, E., Weeser, B., Rufino, M. C., Butterbach-Bahl, K., and Breuer, L.: Assessment of hydrological pathways in East African montane catchments under different land use, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4981–5000, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4981-2018, 2018.
Jiang, C., Xiong, L., Wang, D., Liu, P., Guo, S., and Xu, C. Y.: Separating
the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using the
Budyko-type equations with time-varying parameters, J. Hydrol., 522, 326–338,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.060, 2015.
Kalisa, W., Igbawua, T., Henchiri, M., Ali, S., Zhang, S., Bai, Y., and
Zhang, J.: Assessment of climate impact on vegetation dynamics over East
Africa from 1982 to 2015, Sci. Rep.-UK, 9, 1–20,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-53150-0, 2019.
Keys, P. W., Barnes, E. A., van der Ent, R. J., and Gordon, L. J.: Variability of moisture recycling using a precipitationshed framework, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3937–3950, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3937-2014, 2014.
Kirkby, M., Bracken, L., and Reaney, S.: The influence of land use, soils
and topography on the delivery of hillslope runoff to channels in SE Spain,
Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 27, 1459–1473,
https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.441, 2002.
Kiteme, B. P., Liniger, H., and Notter, B.: Dimensions of Global Change in African Mountains : The Example of Mount Kenya, IHDP, 2, 18–22, 2008.
Knoben, W. J. M., Freer, J. E., and Woods, R. A.: Technical note: Inherent benchmark or not? Comparing Nash–Sutcliffe and Kling–Gupta efficiency scores, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4323–4331, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4323-2019, 2019.
Krakauer, N. Y., Lakhankar, T., and Anadón, J. D.: Mapping and
Attributing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Trends for Nepal, Remote Sens., 9, 1–15,
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9100986, 2017.
Lambrechts, C., Woodley, B., Hemp, A., Hemp, C., and Nnyiti, P.: Aerial Survey of the Threats to Mt. Kilimanjaro Forests. Community Management of Protected Areas Conservation Project, The GEF Small Grants Programme Report, 2002.
Li, C., Chai, Y., Yang, L., and Li, H.: Spatio-temporal
distribution of flood disasters and analysis of influencing factors in
Africa, Nat. Hazards, 82, 721–731,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2181-8, 2016.
Li, D., Pan, M., Cong, Z., Zhang, L., and Wood, E.: Vegetation control on
water and energy balance within the Budyko framework, Water Resour. Res.,
49, 969–976, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20107, 2013.
Liniger, H., Gikonyo, J., Kiteme, B., and Wiesmann, U.: Assessing and
Managing Scarce Tropical Mountain Water Resources, Mt. Res. Dev., 25,
163–173,
https://doi.org/10.1659/0276-4741(2005)025[0163:AAMSTM]2.0.CO;2,
2005.
Liu, X., Liu, W., and Xia, J.: Comparison of the streamflow sensitivity to
aridity index between the Danjiangkou Reservoir basin and Miyun Reservoir
basin, China, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 111, 683–691,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0701-3, 2013.
Ma, X., Lu, X. X., van Noordwijk, M., Li, J. T., and Xu, J. C.: Attribution of climate change, vegetation restoration, and engineering measures to the reduction of suspended sediment in the Kejie catchment, southwest China, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1979–1994, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1979-2014, 2014.
Mamuye, M.: Review on Impacts of Climate Change on Watershed Hydrology, J. Environ. Earth Sci., 8,
91–99, 2018.
Mango, L. M., Melesse, A. M., McClain, M. E., Gann, D., and Setegn, S. G.: Land use and climate change impacts on the hydrology of the upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: results of a modeling study to support better resource management, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2245–2258, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2245-2011, 2011.
Marhaento, H., Booij, M. J., and Hoekstra, A. Y.: Attribution of changes in
stream flow to land use change and climate change in a mesoscale tropical
catchment in Java, Indonesia, Hydrol. Res., 48, 1143–1155,
https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2016.110, 2017.
Mianabadi, A., Davary, K., Pourreza-Bilondi, M., and Coenders-Gerrits, A. M.
J.: Budyko framework; towards non-steady state conditions, J. Hydrol., 588,
125089, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125089, 2020.
Muthoni, F. K., Odongo, V. O., Ochieng, J., Mugalavai, E. M., Mourice, S.
K., Hoesche-Zeledon, I., Mwila, M., and Bekunda, M.: Long-term
spatial-temporal trends and variability of rainfall over Eastern and
Southern Africa, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 137, 1869–1882,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2712-1, 2019.
Mwangi, H. M., Julich, S., Patil, S. D., McDonald, M. A., and Feger, K. H.:
Relative contribution of land use change and climate variability on
discharge of upper Mara River, Kenya, J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., 5, 244–260,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.12.059, 2016.
National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds.): The Climate Data Guide: NDVI: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index-3rd generation: NASA/GFSC GIMMS, available at: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/ndvi-normalized-difference-vegetation-index-3rd-generation-nasagfsc-gimms (last access: 12 July 2020), 2018.
Ndomba, O. A., Bakengesa, S., Petro, R., Maguzu, J., Chamshama, S. A. O.,
Kiimu, H. R., and Lema, M.: Perils of taungya to the productivity of forest
plantations and need for modification: case study of Meru forest plantation
in Tanzania., Int. J. Agric. For., 5, 267–275,
2015.
Niang, I., Ruppel, O. C., Abdrabo, M. A., Essel, A., Lennard, C., Padgham,
J., and Urquhart, P.: Africa, in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation,
and Vulnerability, in: Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, edited by: Barros, V. R., Field, C. B., Dokken, D. J., Mastrandrea, M. D.,
Mach, K. J., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estr, Y. O., edited by:
Barros, V. R., Field, C. B., Dokken, D. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., and Mach, K.
J., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1199–1265,
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415386.002, 2014.
Nicholson, S. E.: Climate and climatic variability of rainfall over eastern
Africa, Rev. Geophys., 55, 590–635, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016RG000544,
2017.
Nyongesa, K. W. and Vacik, H.: Evaluating management strategies for Mount
Kenya Forest Reserve and National Park to reduce fire danger and address
interests of various stakeholders, 10, 426, https://doi.org/10.3390/f10050426,
2019.
Omambia, A. N., Shemsanga, C., and Hernandez, I. A. S.: Climate Change
Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation in East Africa (EA) and South America
(SA), B. Handb. Clim. Chang. Mitig., 1–4, 573–620,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-7991-9_17, 2012.
Otieno, V. O. and Anyah, R. O.: Effects of land use changes on climate in
the Greater Horn of Africa, Clim. Res., 52, 77–95,
https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01050, 2012.
Patel, K.: Rising Waters on Kenya's Great Rift Valley Lakes, Earth Obs. NASA, available at: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/147226/rising-waters-on-kenyas-great-rift-valley-lakes (last access: 15 May 2021), 2020.
Pinzon, J. E. and Tucker, C. J.: A non-stationary 1981–2012 AVHRR NDVI3g
time series, Remote Sens., 6, 6929–6960, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs6086929,
2014.
Redhead, J. W., Stratford, C., Sharps, K., Jones, L., Ziv, G., Clarke, D.,
Oliver, T. H., and Bullock, J. M.: Empirical validation of the InVEST water
yield ecosystem service model at a national scale, Sci. Total Environ.,
569–570, 1418–1426, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.227, 2016.
Roderick, M. L. and Farquhar, G. D.: A simple framework for relating
variations in runoff to variations in climatic conditions and catchment
properties, Water Resour. Res., 47, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009826, 2011.
Røhr, P. C. and Killingtveit, Å.: Rainfall distribution on the slopes
of Mt Kilimanjaro, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 48, 65–77,
https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.1.65.43483, 2003.
Sankarasubramanian, A., Vogel, R. M., and Limbrunner, J. F.: Climate
elasticity of streamflow in the United States, Water Resour. Res., 37,
1771–1781, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900330, 2001.
Schaake, J. S.: From climate to flow, in: Climate Change and US Water Resources, edited by: Waggoner, P. E., John Wiley, New York, 177–206, 1990.
Scoon, R. N.: Geotourism, Iconic Landforms and Island-Style Speciation
Patterns in National Parks of East Africa, 12, 66,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12371-020-00486-z, 2020.
Sinha, J., Sharma, A., Khan, M., and Goyal, M. K.: Assessment of the impacts
of climatic variability and anthropogenic stress on hydrologic resilience to
warming shifts in Peninsular India, Sci. Rep.-UK, 8, 1–14,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-32091-0, 2018.
Sun, Y., Tian, F., Yang, L., and Hu, H.: Exploring the spatial variability
of contributions from climate variation and change in catchment properties
to streamflow decrease in a mesoscale basin by three different methods, J.
Hydrol., 508, 170–180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.004, 2014.
Tallents, L. A. and Macdonald, D. W.: Mapping high-altitude vegetation in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia, in: Walia—Special Edition on the Bale Mountains, edited by: Randall, D., Thirgood, S., and Kinahan, A., Frankfurt Zoological Society, Addis Ababa, 97–117, 2011.
Tech, J.: About SWAT+ − SWAT+ Documentation, Texas A&M Univ. – TAMU, 126, available at: https://swatplus.gitbook.io/docs/ (last access: 31 May 2021), 2019.
Teng, J., Chiew, F. H. S., Vaze, J., Marvanek, S., and Kirono, D. G. C.:
Estimation of climate change impact on mean annual runoff across continental
Australia using Budyko and Fu equations and hydrological models, J.
Hydrometeorol., 13, 1094–1106, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-097.1,
2012.
Teuling, A. J.: A Forest Evapotranspiration Paradox Investigated Using
Lysimeter Data, Vadose Zone J., 17, 170031,
https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2017.01.0031, 2018.
Teuling, A. J. and Hoek van Dijke, A. J.: Forest age and water yield,
Nature, 578, E16–E18, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-1941-5, 2020.
Teuling, A. J., de Badts, E. A. G., Jansen, F. A., Fuchs, R., Buitink, J., Hoek van Dijke, A. J., and Sterling, S. M.: Climate change, reforestation/afforestation, and urbanization impacts on evapotranspiration and streamflow in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3631–3652, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3631-2019, 2019.
The Nature Conservancy: Global Ecoregions, Major Habitat Types, Biogeographical Realms and The Nature Conservancy Terrestrial Assessment Units, Nat. Conserv, available at: https://tnc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?layers=7b7fb9d945544d41b3e7a91494c42930 (last access: 26 July 2020), 2012.
Troch, P. A., Carrillo, G., Sivapalan, M., Wagener, T., and Sawicz, K.: Climate-vegetation-soil interactions and long-term hydrologic partitioning: signatures of catchment co-evolution, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2209–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2209-2013, 2013.
Tucker, C. J., Pinzon, J. E., Brown, M. E., Slayback, A., Pak, E. W.,
Mahoney, R., Vermote, E. F., and Saleous, N. E. L.: An extended AVHRR 8-kni
NDVI dataset compatible with MODISand SPOT vegetation NDVI data, Int. J.
Remote Sens., 26, 4485–4498, 2005.
Ulrich, A., Ifejika Speranza, C., Roden, P., Kiteme, B., Wiesmann, U., and
Nüsser, M.: Small-scale farming in semi-arid areas: Livelihood dynamics
between 1997 and 2010 in Laikipia, Kenya, J. Rural Stud., 28, 241–251,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2012.02.003, 2012.
UNEP: “Africa Water Atlas”. Division of Early Warning and Assessment
(DEWA), United Nations Environ. Program, (UNEP), Nairobi, Kenya, 2010.
UNEP: Africa Mountains Atlas, United Nations Environment Programme (2014),
available at: https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/9301 (last access: 24 April 2021), 310 pp.,
2014.
University of California: CHIRPS: Rainfall Estimates from Rain Gauge and Satellite Observations, available at: https://www.chc.ucsb.edu/data/chirps, last access: 31 July 2020.
USAID: Virunga Landscape Factsheet, available at: https://carpe.umd.edu/sites/default/files/documentsarchive/CAFEC_Virunga Fact Sheet.pdf (last access: 24 April 2021), 2013.
Van der Velde, Y., Vercauteren, N., Jaramillo, F., Dekker, S. C., Destouni,
G., and Lyon, S. W.: Exploring hydroclimatic change disparity via the Budyko
framework, Hydrol. Process., 28, 4110–4118,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9949, 2014.
Van den Hende, C., Van Schaeybroeck, B., Nyssen, J., Van Vooren, S., Van
Ginderachter, M., and Termonia, P.: Analysis of rain-shadows in the
Ethiopian Mountains using climatological model data, Clim. Dynam., 56,
1663–1679, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05554-2, 2021.
Van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Gash, J. H., Van Gorsel, E., Blanken, P. D.,
Cescatti, A., Emmel, C., Gielen, B., Harman, I. N., Kiely, G., Merbold, L.,
Montagnani, L., Moors, E., Sottocornola, M., Varlagin, A., Williams, C. A.,
and Wohlfahrt, G.: Rainfall interception and the coupled surface water and
energy balance, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 214–215, 402–415,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.09.006, 2015.
Van Noordwijk, M., Speelman, E., Hofstede, G. J., Farida, A., Wamucii, C. N., Kimbowa, G., Geraud, G., Assogba, C., Best, L., Tanika, L., Githinji, M., Rosero, P., Sari, R. R., Satnarain, U., Adiwibowo, S., Ligtenberg, A., Muthuri, C., Marielos Purwanto, E. P.-C., van Oel, P., Rozendaal, D., Suprayogo, D., and Teuling, A. J.: Sustainable Agroforestry Landscape Management: Changing the Game, Land, 9, 1–38, https://doi.org/10.3390/land9080243, 2020.
Viviroli, D. and Weingartner, R.: The hydrological significance of mountains: from regional to global scale, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 1017–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-8-1017-2004, 2004.
Viviroli, D., Dürr, H. H., Messerli, B., Meybeck, M., and Weingartner,
R.: Mountains of the world, water towers for humanity: Typology, mapping,
and global significance, Water Resour. Res., 43, 1–13,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005653, 2007.
Vye-Brown, C., Crummy, J., Smith, K., Mruma, A., and Kabelwa, H.: Mt Meru case study, Earthwise, available at: http://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/OR/14/005_Mt_Meru_case_study (last access: 18 May 2021), 2014.
Wambua, C.: Why Kenya’s Rift Valley lakes are going through a crisis, Aljazeera, available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/30/why-kenyas-rift-valley-lakes-are-going-through-a-crisis/ (last access: 2 July 2021), 2020.
Wei, X. and Zhang, M.: Research Methods for Assessing the Impacts of Forest
Disturbance on Hydrology at Large-scale Watersheds, Landsc. Ecol. For.
Manag. Conserv., 119–147,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-12754-0_6, 2011.
Western, A. W., Zhou, S. L., Grayson, R. B., McMahon, T. A., Blöschl,
G., and Wilson, D. J.: Spatial correlation of soil moisture in small
catchments and its relationship to dominant spatial hydrological processes,
J. Hydrol., 286, 113–134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.09.014,
2004.
Woods, R.: The relative roles of climate, soil, vegetation and topography in
determining seasonal and long-term catchment dynamics, Adv. Water Resour.,
30, 1061, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2006.10.010, 2002.
WWF: Water towers of eastern Africa Policy, issues and vision for community-based protection and management of montane forests report, Nairobi, Kenya, available at: http://awsassets.panda.org/downloads/water_towers_policy_report_1.pdf (last access: 13 September 2020), 2005.
Xu, X., Liu, W., Scanlon, B. R., Zhang, L., and Pan, M.: Local and global
factors controlling water-energy balances within the Budyko framework,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 6123–6129, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058324,
2013.
Yan, D., Lai, Z., and Ji, G.: Using Budyko-type equations for separating the
impacts of climate and vegetation change on runoff in the source area of the
yellow river, Water, 12, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123418, 2020.
Yang, D., Shao, W., Yeh, P. J. F., Yang, H., Kanae, S., and Oki, T.: Impact
of vegetation coverage on regional water balance in the nonhumid regions of
China, Water Resour. Res., 45, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR006948,
2009.
Yang, H., Qi, J., Xu, X., Yang, D., and Lv, H.: The regional variation in
climate elasticity and climate contribution to runoff across China, J.
Hydrol., 517, 607–616, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.062, 2014.
Yuan, W., Piao, S., Qin, D., Dong, W., Xia, J., Lin, H., and Chen, M.:
Influence of Vegetation Growth on the Enhanced Seasonality of Atmospheric
CO2, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 32, 32–41,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005802, 2017.
Yichuan, S.: Rwenzori Mountains National Park, 2017 Int. Union Conserv. Nat. UN Environ. World Conserv. Monit. Cent, available at: http://world-heritage-datasheets.unep-wcmc.org/datasheet/output/site/rwenzori-mountains-national-park/#:~:text=Local Human Population,-In 1910%2C the&text=The region is one of,people (Loefler%2C 1997, (last access: 18 May 2021), 2011.
Zeng, F., Ma, M. G., Di, D. R., and Shi, W. Y.: Separating the impacts of
climate change and human activities on runoff: A review of method and
application, Water, 12, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.3390/W12082201, 2020.
Zhang, L., Dawes, W. R., and Walker, G. R.: Response of mean annual
evapotranspiration to vegetation changes at catchment scale, Water Resour.
Res., 37, 701–708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900325, 2001.
Zhang, L., Hickel, K., Dawes, W. R., Chiew, F. H. S., Western, A. W., and
Briggs, P. R.: A rational function approach for estimating mean annual
evapotranspiration, Water Resour. Res., 40, 1–14,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002710, 2004.
Zhang, M., Wei, X., Sun, P., and Liu, S.: The effect of forest harvesting
and climatic variability on runoff in a large watershed: The case study in
the Upper Minjiang River of Yangtze River basin, J. Hydrol., 464–465,
1–11, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.050, 2012.
Zimmermann, L., Frühauf, C., and Bernhofer, C.: The role of interception
in the water budget of spruce stands in the Eastern Ore Mountains/Germany,
Phys. Chem. Earth, Pt. B, 24, 809–812,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1464-1909(99)00085-4, 1999.
Short summary
East African water towers (WTs) are under pressure from human influences within and without, but the water yield (WY) is more sensitive to climate changes from within. Land use changes have greater impacts on WY in the surrounding lowlands. The WTs have seen a strong shift towards wetter conditions while, at the same time, the potential evapotranspiration is gradually increasing. The WTs were identified as non-resilient, and future WY may experience more extreme variations.
East African water towers (WTs) are under pressure from human influences within and without, but...
