Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
Research article
 | 
08 Mar 2021
Research article |  | 08 Mar 2021

Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden

Marc Girons Lopez, Louise Crochemore, and Ilias G. Pechlivanidis

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Cited articles

Apel, H., Abdykerimova, Z., Agalhanova, M., Baimaganbetov, A., Gavrilenko, N., Gerlitz, L., Kalashnikova, O., Unger-Shayesteh, K., Vorogushyn, S., and Gafurov, A.: Statistical forecast of seasonal discharge in Central Asia using observational records: development of a generic linear modelling tool for operational water resource management, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2225–2254, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018, 2018. 
Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B., and Pappenberger, F.: Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018. 
Batté, L. and Déqué, M.: Randomly correcting model errors in the ARPEGE-Climate v6.1 component of CNRM-CM: applications for seasonal forecasts, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2055–2076, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2055-2016, 2016. 
Bennett, J. C., Wang, Q. J., Robertson, D. E., Schepen, A., Li, M., and Michael, K.: Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6007–6030, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6007-2017, 2017. 
Bergström, S.: Development and Application of a Conceptual Runoff Model for Scandinavian Catchments, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden, 1976. 
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The Swedish hydrological warning service is extending its use of seasonal forecasts, which requires an analysis of the available methods. We evaluate the simple ESP method and find out how and why forecasts vary in time and space. We find that forecasts are useful up to 3 months into the future, especially during winter and in northern Sweden. They tend to be good in slow-reacting catchments and bad in flashy and highly regulated ones. We finally link them with areas of similar behaviour.
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