Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1189–1209, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1189–1209, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021
Research article
08 Mar 2021
Research article | 08 Mar 2021

Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden

Marc Girons Lopez et al.

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Latest update: 08 Aug 2022
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Short summary
The Swedish hydrological warning service is extending its use of seasonal forecasts, which requires an analysis of the available methods. We evaluate the simple ESP method and find out how and why forecasts vary in time and space. We find that forecasts are useful up to 3 months into the future, especially during winter and in northern Sweden. They tend to be good in slow-reacting catchments and bad in flashy and highly regulated ones. We finally link them with areas of similar behaviour.