Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018
Research article
 | 
11 Apr 2018
Research article |  | 11 Apr 2018

Statistical forecast of seasonal discharge in Central Asia using observational records: development of a generic linear modelling tool for operational water resource management

Heiko Apel, Zharkinay Abdykerimova, Marina Agalhanova, Azamat Baimaganbetov, Nadejda Gavrilenko, Lars Gerlitz, Olga Kalashnikova, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Abror Gafurov

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Cited articles

Agaltseva, N. A., Borovikova, L. N., and Konovalov, V. G.: Automated system of runoff forecasting for the Amudarya River basin, in: Destructive Water: Water-Caused Natural Disasters, their Abatement and Control, Anaheim, California, 193–201, 1997. 
Aizen, V. B., Aizen, E. M., and Melack, J. M.: Climate, snow cover, glaciers, and runoff in the Tien Shan, Central Asia, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 31, 1113–1129, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1995.tb03426.x, 1995. 
Aizen, V. B., Aizen, E. M., and Melack, J. M.: Precipitation, melt and runoff in the northern Tien Shan, J. Hydrol., 186, 229–251, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(96)03022-3, 1996. 
Aizen, V. B., Aizen, E. M., and Kuzmichonok, V. A.: Glaciers and hydrological changes in the Tien Shan: simulation and prediction, Environ. Res. Lett., 2, 045019, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/2/4/045019, 2007. 
Archer, D. R. and Fowler, H. J.: Using meteorological data to forecast seasonal runoff on the River Jhelum, Pakistan, J. Hydrol., 361, 10–23, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.07.017, 2008. 
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Short summary
Central Asia crucially depends on water resources supplied by snow melt in the mountains during summer. To support water resources management we propose a generic tool for statistical forecasts of seasonal discharge based on multiple linear regressions. The predictors are observed precipitation and temperature, snow coverage, and discharge. The automatically derived models for 13 different catchments provided very skilful forecasts in April, and acceptable forecasts in January.
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