Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Apr 2018
Research article |
| 11 Apr 2018
| 11 Apr 2018
Statistical forecast of seasonal discharge in Central Asia using observational records: development of a generic linear modelling tool for operational water resource management
GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Section 5.4 Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany
Zharkinay Abdykerimova
Hydro-Meteorological Service of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Marina Agalhanova
Hydro-Meteorological Service of Turkmenistan, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan
Azamat Baimaganbetov
Hydro-Meteorological Service of Kazakhstan, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Nadejda Gavrilenko
Hydro-Meteorological Service of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Lars Gerlitz
GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Section 5.4 Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany
Olga Kalashnikova
CAIAG Central Asian Institute for Applied Geoscience, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Katy Unger-Shayesteh
GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Section 5.4 Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany
Sergiy Vorogushyn
GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Section 5.4 Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany
Abror Gafurov
GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Section 5.4 Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany
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Cited
35 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Isotopic evolution of snowmelt and its hydrometeorological importance in snow-covered regions Y. Nyamgerel et al.
- Influence of Meteorological Conditions on Artificial Ice Reservoir (Icestupa) Evolution S. Balasubramanian et al.
- A parsimonious model for springs discharge reconstruction and forecast for drought management: Lessons from a case study in Central Italy N. Guyennon et al.
- Seasonal precipitation forecasting for water management in the Kosi Basin, India using large-scale climate predictors M. Dhillon et al.
- Climate change and adaptation of mountain societies in Central Asia: uncertainties, knowledge gaps, and data constraints S. Xenarios et al.
- Observing and Modeling the Isotopic Evolution of Snow Meltwater on the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau T. Pu et al.
- Comparing the performance of high‐resolution global precipitation products across topographic and climatic gradients of Central Asia M. Peña‐Guerrero et al.
- Significant reduction of river discharge in the mountainous basins of Uzbekistan over the last decades A. Mamaraimov et al.
- Heterogeneous effects of weather extremes on different dimensions of poverty in Kyrgyzstan B. Kimsanova et al.
- Predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts: Verification metrics, diagnostic plots and forecast attributes Z. Huang & T. Zhao
- Land surface phenology in the highland pastures of montane Central Asia: Interactions with snow cover seasonality and terrain characteristics M. Tomaszewska et al.
- Development of a macroscale distributed hydro-modeling method: Bayesian principal-monotonicity inference G. Cheng et al.
- A seasonal forecasting procedure for reservoir inflows in Central Asia S. Dixon & R. Wilby
- Predicting Discharges in Sewer Pipes Using an Integrated Long Short-Term Memory and Entropy A-TOPSIS Modeling Framework L. Nguyen et al.
- Calibration of ECMWF SEAS5 based streamflow forecast in Seasonal hydrological forecasting for Citarum river basin, West Java, Indonesia D. Ratri et al.
- Accurate statistical seasonal streamflow forecasts developed by incorporating remote sensing soil moisture and terrestrial water storage anomaly information M. Wang et al.
- Variability of the Cold Season Climate in Central Asia. Part II: Hydroclimatic Predictability L. Gerlitz et al.
- Analyzing streamflow variation in the data-sparse mountainous regions: An integrated CCA-RF-FA framework H. Wang et al.
- Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta H. Apel et al.
- The value of hydroclimatic teleconnections for snow-based seasonal streamflow forecasting in central Asia A. Umirbekov et al.
- Statistical modelling of snow cover dynamics in the Central Himalaya Region, Nepal J. Weidinger et al.
- River discharge monitoring using remote-sensing and hydrological modeling: the case of Golina River, Danakil Basin, Ethiopia M. Tesfaw et al.
- Daily urban water supply modeling and forecasting based on the elliptic orbit model with weekly quasi-periodic extension Z. Yang
- Hydrological Forecasting under Climate Variability Using Modeling and Earth Observations in the Naryn River Basin, Kyrgyzstan M. Pamirbek kyzy et al.
- A global hydrology research agenda fit for the 2030s R. Wilby
- Untangling the impacts of socioeconomic and climatic changes on vegetation greenness and productivity in Kazakhstan K. Venkatesh et al.
- CA-discharge: Geo-Located Discharge Time Series for Mountainous Rivers in Central Asia B. Marti et al.
- Long-Term Prediction of Hydrometeorological Time Series Using a PSO-Based Combined Model Composed of EEMD and LSTM G. Wu et al.
- What Are the Key Drivers Controlling the Quality of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts? I. Pechlivanidis et al.
- Forecast of seasonal water availability in Central Asia with near-real time GRACE water storage anomalies H. Apel et al.
- Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden M. Girons Lopez et al.
- Variability of the Cold Season Climate in Central Asia. Part I: Weather Types and Their Tropical and Extratropical Drivers L. Gerlitz et al.
- Characteristics, precursors, and potential predictability of Amu Darya Drought in an Earth system model large ensemble A. Hoell et al.
- Regionalization of climate teleconnections across Central Asian mountains improves the predictability of seasonal precipitation A. Umirbekov et al.
- Climate informed seasonal forecast of water availability in Central Asia: State-of-the-art and decision making context L. Gerlitz et al.
35 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Isotopic evolution of snowmelt and its hydrometeorological importance in snow-covered regions Y. Nyamgerel et al.
- Influence of Meteorological Conditions on Artificial Ice Reservoir (Icestupa) Evolution S. Balasubramanian et al.
- A parsimonious model for springs discharge reconstruction and forecast for drought management: Lessons from a case study in Central Italy N. Guyennon et al.
- Seasonal precipitation forecasting for water management in the Kosi Basin, India using large-scale climate predictors M. Dhillon et al.
- Climate change and adaptation of mountain societies in Central Asia: uncertainties, knowledge gaps, and data constraints S. Xenarios et al.
- Observing and Modeling the Isotopic Evolution of Snow Meltwater on the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau T. Pu et al.
- Comparing the performance of high‐resolution global precipitation products across topographic and climatic gradients of Central Asia M. Peña‐Guerrero et al.
- Significant reduction of river discharge in the mountainous basins of Uzbekistan over the last decades A. Mamaraimov et al.
- Heterogeneous effects of weather extremes on different dimensions of poverty in Kyrgyzstan B. Kimsanova et al.
- Predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts: Verification metrics, diagnostic plots and forecast attributes Z. Huang & T. Zhao
- Land surface phenology in the highland pastures of montane Central Asia: Interactions with snow cover seasonality and terrain characteristics M. Tomaszewska et al.
- Development of a macroscale distributed hydro-modeling method: Bayesian principal-monotonicity inference G. Cheng et al.
- A seasonal forecasting procedure for reservoir inflows in Central Asia S. Dixon & R. Wilby
- Predicting Discharges in Sewer Pipes Using an Integrated Long Short-Term Memory and Entropy A-TOPSIS Modeling Framework L. Nguyen et al.
- Calibration of ECMWF SEAS5 based streamflow forecast in Seasonal hydrological forecasting for Citarum river basin, West Java, Indonesia D. Ratri et al.
- Accurate statistical seasonal streamflow forecasts developed by incorporating remote sensing soil moisture and terrestrial water storage anomaly information M. Wang et al.
- Variability of the Cold Season Climate in Central Asia. Part II: Hydroclimatic Predictability L. Gerlitz et al.
- Analyzing streamflow variation in the data-sparse mountainous regions: An integrated CCA-RF-FA framework H. Wang et al.
- Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta H. Apel et al.
- The value of hydroclimatic teleconnections for snow-based seasonal streamflow forecasting in central Asia A. Umirbekov et al.
- Statistical modelling of snow cover dynamics in the Central Himalaya Region, Nepal J. Weidinger et al.
- River discharge monitoring using remote-sensing and hydrological modeling: the case of Golina River, Danakil Basin, Ethiopia M. Tesfaw et al.
- Daily urban water supply modeling and forecasting based on the elliptic orbit model with weekly quasi-periodic extension Z. Yang
- Hydrological Forecasting under Climate Variability Using Modeling and Earth Observations in the Naryn River Basin, Kyrgyzstan M. Pamirbek kyzy et al.
- A global hydrology research agenda fit for the 2030s R. Wilby
- Untangling the impacts of socioeconomic and climatic changes on vegetation greenness and productivity in Kazakhstan K. Venkatesh et al.
- CA-discharge: Geo-Located Discharge Time Series for Mountainous Rivers in Central Asia B. Marti et al.
- Long-Term Prediction of Hydrometeorological Time Series Using a PSO-Based Combined Model Composed of EEMD and LSTM G. Wu et al.
- What Are the Key Drivers Controlling the Quality of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts? I. Pechlivanidis et al.
- Forecast of seasonal water availability in Central Asia with near-real time GRACE water storage anomalies H. Apel et al.
- Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden M. Girons Lopez et al.
- Variability of the Cold Season Climate in Central Asia. Part I: Weather Types and Their Tropical and Extratropical Drivers L. Gerlitz et al.
- Characteristics, precursors, and potential predictability of Amu Darya Drought in an Earth system model large ensemble A. Hoell et al.
- Regionalization of climate teleconnections across Central Asian mountains improves the predictability of seasonal precipitation A. Umirbekov et al.
- Climate informed seasonal forecast of water availability in Central Asia: State-of-the-art and decision making context L. Gerlitz et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 04 May 2026
Short summary
Central Asia crucially depends on water resources supplied by snow melt in the mountains during summer. To support water resources management we propose a generic tool for statistical forecasts of seasonal discharge based on multiple linear regressions. The predictors are observed precipitation and temperature, snow coverage, and discharge. The automatically derived models for 13 different catchments provided very skilful forecasts in April, and acceptable forecasts in January.
Central Asia crucially depends on water resources supplied by snow melt in the mountains during...
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