Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018

Research article 03 Apr 2018

Research article | 03 Apr 2018

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Louise Arnal et al.

Related authors

Canadian historical Snow Water Equivalent dataset (CanSWE, 1928–2020)
Vincent Vionnet, Colleen Mortimer, Mike Brady, Louise Arnal, and Ross Brown
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-160,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-160, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England
Louise Arnal, Liz Anspoks, Susan Manson, Jessica Neumann, Tim Norton, Elisabeth Stephens, Louise Wolfenden, and Hannah Louise Cloke
Geosci. Commun., 3, 203–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-203-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-203-2020, 2020
Short summary
Can seasonal hydrological forecasts inform local decisions and actions? A decision-making activity
Jessica L. Neumann, Louise Arnal, Rebecca E. Emerton, Helen Griffith, Stuart Hyslop, Sofia Theofanidi, and Hannah L. Cloke
Geosci. Commun., 1, 35–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-1-35-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-1-35-2018, 2018
Short summary
Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0
Rebecca Emerton, Ervin Zsoter, Louise Arnal, Hannah L. Cloke, Davide Muraro, Christel Prudhomme, Elisabeth M. Stephens, Peter Salamon, and Florian Pappenberger
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3327–3346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018, 2018
Short summary
Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game
Louise Arnal, Maria-Helena Ramos, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Hannah Louise Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Schalk Jan van Andel, and Florian Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3109–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016, 2016
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Contribution of moisture sources to precipitation changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Hui Peng, Shangbin Xiao, and Denghua Yan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4759–4772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4759-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4759-2021, 2021
Short summary
Impacts of land use and land cover change and reforestation on summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basin
Wei Li, Lu Li, Jie Chen, Qian Lin, and Hua Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4531–4548, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4531-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4531-2021, 2021
Short summary
Mass balance and hydrological modeling of the Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in south-central Norway
Trude Eidhammer, Adam Booth, Sven Decker, Lu Li, Michael Barlage, David Gochis, Roy Rasmussen, Kjetil Melvold, Atle Nesje, and Stefan Sobolowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4275–4297, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4275-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4275-2021, 2021
Short summary
Long-term relative decline in evapotranspiration with increasing runoff on fractional land surfaces
Ren Wang, Pierre Gentine, Jiabo Yin, Lijuan Chen, Jianyao Chen, and Longhui Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3805–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3805-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3805-2021, 2021
Short summary
Decision tree-based detection of blowing snow events in the European Alps
Zhipeng Xie, Weiqiang Ma, Yaoming Ma, Zeyong Hu, Genhou Sun, Yizhe Han, Wei Hu, Rongmingzhu Su, and Yixi Fan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3783–3804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3783-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3783-2021, 2021
Short summary

Cited articles

Alfieri, L., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Haiden, T., Richardson, D., and Salamon, P.: Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Europe, J. Hydrol., 517, 913–922, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.035, 2014.
Arnal, L., Wood, A. W., Stephens, E., Cloke, H. L., and Pappenberger, F.: An Efficient Approach for Estimating Streamflow Forecast Skill Elasticity, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 1715–1729, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1, 2017.
Arribas, A., Glover, M., Maidens, A., Peterson, K., Gordon, M., MacLachlan, C., Graham, R., Fereday, D., Camp, J., Scaife, A. A., Xavier, P., McLean, P., and Colman, A.: The GloSea4 Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal Forecasting, Mon. Weather. Rev., 139, 1891–1910, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3615.1, 2010.
Bell, V. A., Davies, H. N., Kay, A. L., Brookshaw, A., and Scaife, A. A.: A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4681–4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017, 2017.
Bennett, J. C., Wang, J. Q., Li, M., Robertson, D. E., and Schepen, A.: Reliable long-range ensemble streamflow forecasts: Combining calibrated climate forecasts with a conceptual runoff model and a staged error model, Water Resour. Res., 52, 8238–8259, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019193, 2016.
Download
Short summary
This paper presents a new operational forecasting system (driven by atmospheric forecasts), predicting river flow in European rivers for the next 7 months. For the first month only, these river flow forecasts are, on average, better than predictions that do not make use of atmospheric forecasts. Overall, this forecasting system can predict whether abnormally high or low river flows will occur in the next 7 months in many parts of Europe, and could be valuable for various applications.