Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Arnal, Louise; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Prudhomme, Christel; Neumann, Jessica; Krzeminski, Blazej; Pappenberger, Florian

doi:10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018

Articles | Volume 22, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 22, issue 4

Research article

|

03 Apr 2018

Research article |

| 03 Apr 2018

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Louise Arnal, Hannah L. Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Christel Prudhomme, Jessica Neumann, Blazej Krzeminski, and Florian Pappenberger

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Views and downloads (calculated since 24 Oct 2017)

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Jan 2018	55	21	13	89
Feb 2018	60	25	11	96
Mar 2018	37	19	9	65
Apr 2018	352	183	6	541
May 2018	60	53	0	113
Jun 2018	107	45	1	153
Jul 2018	52	37	0	89
Aug 2018	60	34	1	95
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May 2019	51	26	0	77
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Jul 2019	43	16	1	60
Aug 2019	38	22	1	61
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Oct 2019	62	39	2	103
Nov 2019	30	20	1	51
Dec 2019	28	21	1	50
Jan 2020	42	29	2	73
Feb 2020	27	19	0	46
Mar 2020	25	21	0	46
Apr 2020	31	13	0	44
May 2020	52	16	0	68
Jun 2020	34	46	1	81
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Aug 2020	29	36	4	69
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Oct 2020	25	32	1	58
Nov 2020	36	34	0	70
Dec 2020	23	18	0	41
Jan 2021	40	40	0	80
Feb 2021	30	25	1	56
Mar 2021	45	46	1	92
Apr 2021	31	20	0	51
May 2021	25	27	0	52
Jun 2021	25	29	0	54
Jul 2021	107	24	0	131
Aug 2021	28	25	1	54
Sep 2021	32	34	3	69
Oct 2021	29	50	1	80
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Dec 2021	27	20	0	47
Jan 2022	45	29	1	75
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Mar 2022	23	18	0	41
Apr 2022	41	27	1	69
May 2022	27	24	3	54
Jun 2022	38	22	2	62
Jul 2022	31	12	0	43
Aug 2022	43	18	0	61
Sep 2022	21	21	1	43
Oct 2022	33	21	2	56
Nov 2022	67	30	0	97
Dec 2022	71	29	2	102
Jan 2023	71	43	5	119
Feb 2023	64	16	4	84
Mar 2023	87	29	3	119
Apr 2023	36	33	2	71
May 2023	20	25	1	46
Jun 2023	32	17	1	50
Jul 2023	22	31	5	58
Aug 2023	22	19	2	43
Sep 2023	32	22	1	55
Oct 2023	87	29	3	119
Nov 2023	96	12	0	108
Dec 2023	38	23	2	63
Jan 2024	43	28	0	71
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Mar 2024	39	40	1	80
Apr 2024	32	24	5	61
May 2024	49	30	8	87
Jun 2024	60	18	3	81
Jul 2024	36	21	2	59
Aug 2024	53	16	5	74
Sep 2024	32	13	0	45
Oct 2024	37	22	1	60
Nov 2024	13	9	1	23
Dec 2024	19	9	2	30
Jan 2025	27	17	4	48
Feb 2025	37	15	1	53
Mar 2025	28	17	3	48
Apr 2025	39	27	3	69
May 2025	47	14	0	61
Jun 2025	69	20	0	89
Jul 2025	55	21	5	81
Aug 2025	58	31	3	92
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Oct 2025	38	33	1	72
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Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 24 Oct 2017)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Oct 2017	268	78	2	348
Nov 2017	206	45	14	265
Dec 2017	46	29	14	89
Jan 2018	55	21	13	89
Feb 2018	60	25	11	96
Mar 2018	37	19	9	65
Apr 2018	352	183	6	541
May 2018	60	53	0	113
Jun 2018	107	45	1	153
Jul 2018	52	37	0	89
Aug 2018	60	34	1	95
Sep 2018	51	52	0	103
Oct 2018	50	35	4	89
Nov 2018	34	26	2	62
Dec 2018	32	20	0	52
Jan 2019	40	17	0	57
Feb 2019	34	24	1	59
Mar 2019	38	25	0	63
Apr 2019	32	28	0	60
May 2019	51	26	0	77
Jun 2019	45	23	0	68
Jul 2019	43	16	1	60
Aug 2019	38	22	1	61
Sep 2019	65	32	0	97
Oct 2019	62	39	2	103
Nov 2019	30	20	1	51
Dec 2019	28	21	1	50
Jan 2020	42	29	2	73
Feb 2020	27	19	0	46
Mar 2020	25	21	0	46
Apr 2020	31	13	0	44
May 2020	52	16	0	68
Jun 2020	34	46	1	81
Jul 2020	40	41	7	88
Aug 2020	29	36	4	69
Sep 2020	35	33	0	68
Oct 2020	25	32	1	58
Nov 2020	36	34	0	70
Dec 2020	23	18	0	41
Jan 2021	40	40	0	80
Feb 2021	30	25	1	56
Mar 2021	45	46	1	92
Apr 2021	31	20	0	51
May 2021	25	27	0	52
Jun 2021	25	29	0	54
Jul 2021	107	24	0	131
Aug 2021	28	25	1	54
Sep 2021	32	34	3	69
Oct 2021	29	50	1	80
Nov 2021	28	30	0	58
Dec 2021	27	20	0	47
Jan 2022	45	29	1	75
Feb 2022	38	28	3	69
Mar 2022	23	18	0	41
Apr 2022	41	27	1	69
May 2022	27	24	3	54
Jun 2022	38	22	2	62
Jul 2022	31	12	0	43
Aug 2022	43	18	0	61
Sep 2022	21	21	1	43
Oct 2022	33	21	2	56
Nov 2022	67	30	0	97
Dec 2022	71	29	2	102
Jan 2023	71	43	5	119
Feb 2023	64	16	4	84
Mar 2023	87	29	3	119
Apr 2023	36	33	2	71
May 2023	20	25	1	46
Jun 2023	32	17	1	50
Jul 2023	22	31	5	58
Aug 2023	22	19	2	43
Sep 2023	32	22	1	55
Oct 2023	87	29	3	119
Nov 2023	96	12	0	108
Dec 2023	38	23	2	63
Jan 2024	43	28	0	71
Feb 2024	28	39	1	68
Mar 2024	39	40	1	80
Apr 2024	32	24	5	61
May 2024	49	30	8	87
Jun 2024	60	18	3	81
Jul 2024	36	21	2	59
Aug 2024	53	16	5	74
Sep 2024	32	13	0	45
Oct 2024	37	22	1	60
Nov 2024	13	9	1	23
Dec 2024	19	9	2	30
Jan 2025	27	17	4	48
Feb 2025	37	15	1	53
Mar 2025	28	17	3	48
Apr 2025	39	27	3	69
May 2025	47	14	0	61
Jun 2025	69	20	0	89
Jul 2025	55	21	5	81
Aug 2025	58	31	3	92
Sep 2025	84	33	0	117
Oct 2025	38	33	1	72
Nov 2025	32	18	4	54

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Total article views: 7,861 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 7,335 with geography defined and 526 with unknown origin.

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1

1

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Short summary

This paper presents a new operational forecasting system (driven by atmospheric forecasts), predicting river flow in European rivers for the next 7 months. For the first month only, these river flow forecasts are, on average, better than predictions that do not make use of atmospheric forecasts. Overall, this forecasting system can predict whether abnormally high or low river flows will occur in the next 7 months in many parts of Europe, and could be valuable for various applications.


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