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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 21, issue 6
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2967–2986, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2967-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2967–2986, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2967-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 19 Jun 2017

Research article | 19 Jun 2017

Moving beyond the cost–loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

Simon Matte et al.

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Cited articles

Abaza, M., Anctil, F., Fortin, V., and Turcotte, R.: A comparison of the Canadian global and regional meteorological ensemble prediction systems for short-term hydrological forecasting, Month. Weather Rev., 142, 2561–2562, 2014.
Abaza, M., Anctil, F., Fortin, V., and Turcotte, R.: Exploration of sequential streamflow assimilation in snow dominated watersheds, Adv. Water Resour., 80, 79–89, 2015.
Babcock, B. A., Choi, E. K., and Feinerman, E.: Risk and probability premiums for CARA utility functions, J. Agr. Resour. Econ., 18, 17–24, 1993.
Beven, K.: Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication, Hydrol. Sci. J., 61, 1652–1665, 2016.
Bisson, J.-L. and Roberge, F.: Prévisions des apports naturels: Expérience d'Hydro-Québec, Atelier sur la prévision du débit, Toronto, 1983.
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In this study we set the basis of an alternative framework to replace the popular cost-loss ratio for the economic assessment of flood forecasting systems. The C-L ratio implicitly considers the decision maker to be risk-neutral, whereas it is rarely the case in real-life emergency situations. Instead of the cost-loss ratio, we propose using a utility function. We show that the decision-maker’s level of risk aversion is a crucial factor in the assessment of the economic value of flood forecasts.
In this study we set the basis of an alternative framework to replace the popular cost-loss...
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