Articles | Volume 21, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2967-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2967-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Jun 2017
Research article |
| 19 Jun 2017
Moving beyond the cost–loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker
Simon Matte
Dept. of Applied Sciences, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, 555, boulevard de l'Université, Chicoutimi, G7H 2B1, Canada
Marie-Amélie Boucher
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Dept. of Applied Sciences, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, 555, boulevard de l'Université, Chicoutimi, G7H 2B1, Canada
Vincent Boucher
Dept. of Economics, Université Laval, 1025, avenue des Sciences-Humaines, Québec, G1V 0A6, Canada
Thomas-Charles Fortier Filion
Québec Government Direction of Hydrologic Expertise, 675, boul. René Lévesque Est., Québec, G1R 5V7, Canada
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Cited
22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Optimal Credible Warnings K. Akakpo et al. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3218439
- Do users benefit from additional information in support of operational drought management decisions in the Ebro basin? C. Linés et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5901-2018
- Assessing time, cost and quality trade-offs in forecast-based action for floods K. Bischiniotis et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101252
- Using Extreme Wind-Speed Probabilistic Forecasts to Optimize Unit Scheduling Decision Y. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSTE.2021.3132342
- Water Temperature Ensemble Forecasts: Implementation Using the CEQUEAU Model on Two Contrasted River Systems S. Ouellet-Proulx et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9070457
- Software library to quantify the value of forecasts for decision-making: Case study on sensitivity to damages R. Laugesen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106697
- An extreme weather evacuation cost-lost model and the implications for early warning weather forecasting systems S. Jewson https://doi.org/10.3389/fcomm.2026.1762033
- Emerging strategies for addressing flood-damage modeling issues: A review S. Redondo-Tilano et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105058
- Estimation of uncertainty in flood forecasts—A comparison of methods L. Boelee et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12516
- OpenForecast: The First Open-Source Operational Runoff Forecasting System in Russia G. Ayzel et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11081546
- Effects of O3 pollution near formation on crop yield and economic loss J. Ren https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eti.2021.101446
- The Value of Information and Benefits of Flood Forecasts: A Case Study of Saint Paul, Minnesota G. Van Houtven et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-7205
- Comparison of Single-Valued Forecasts in a User-Oriented Framework M. Foley & N. Loveday https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0248.1
- Evaluating post-processing approaches for monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts F. Woldemeskel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6257-2018
- Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts R. Laugesen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023
- On the impact of reliability of probabilistic event-time forecasts on cost-loss analyses by decision makers K. Georgakakos https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133986
- A Value‐Based Model Selection Approach for Environmental Random Variables M. Müller & S. Thompson https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023000
- A proposed methodological framework to estimate the utility of EO-based information in data scarce contexts: challenges and recommendations R. Basu et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae53ad
- Economic Value of Flood Forecasts and Early Warning Systems: A Review G. Van Houtven https://doi.org/10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-2094
- Uncertainty in three dimensions: the challenges of communicating probabilistic flood forecast maps V. Jean et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3351-2023
- AI‐based runoff simulation based on remote sensing observations: A case study of two river basins in the United States and Canada P. Parisouj et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.13098
- Using a coupled agent-based modeling approach to analyze the role of risk perception in water management decisions J. Hyun et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2261-2019
22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Optimal Credible Warnings K. Akakpo et al. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3218439
- Do users benefit from additional information in support of operational drought management decisions in the Ebro basin? C. Linés et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5901-2018
- Assessing time, cost and quality trade-offs in forecast-based action for floods K. Bischiniotis et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101252
- Using Extreme Wind-Speed Probabilistic Forecasts to Optimize Unit Scheduling Decision Y. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSTE.2021.3132342
- Water Temperature Ensemble Forecasts: Implementation Using the CEQUEAU Model on Two Contrasted River Systems S. Ouellet-Proulx et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9070457
- Software library to quantify the value of forecasts for decision-making: Case study on sensitivity to damages R. Laugesen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106697
- An extreme weather evacuation cost-lost model and the implications for early warning weather forecasting systems S. Jewson https://doi.org/10.3389/fcomm.2026.1762033
- Emerging strategies for addressing flood-damage modeling issues: A review S. Redondo-Tilano et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105058
- Estimation of uncertainty in flood forecasts—A comparison of methods L. Boelee et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12516
- OpenForecast: The First Open-Source Operational Runoff Forecasting System in Russia G. Ayzel et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11081546
- Effects of O3 pollution near formation on crop yield and economic loss J. Ren https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eti.2021.101446
- The Value of Information and Benefits of Flood Forecasts: A Case Study of Saint Paul, Minnesota G. Van Houtven et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-7205
- Comparison of Single-Valued Forecasts in a User-Oriented Framework M. Foley & N. Loveday https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0248.1
- Evaluating post-processing approaches for monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts F. Woldemeskel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6257-2018
- Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts R. Laugesen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023
- On the impact of reliability of probabilistic event-time forecasts on cost-loss analyses by decision makers K. Georgakakos https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133986
- A Value‐Based Model Selection Approach for Environmental Random Variables M. Müller & S. Thompson https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023000
- A proposed methodological framework to estimate the utility of EO-based information in data scarce contexts: challenges and recommendations R. Basu et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae53ad
- Economic Value of Flood Forecasts and Early Warning Systems: A Review G. Van Houtven https://doi.org/10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-2094
- Uncertainty in three dimensions: the challenges of communicating probabilistic flood forecast maps V. Jean et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3351-2023
- AI‐based runoff simulation based on remote sensing observations: A case study of two river basins in the United States and Canada P. Parisouj et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.13098
- Using a coupled agent-based modeling approach to analyze the role of risk perception in water management decisions J. Hyun et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2261-2019
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 25 Jul 2026
Short summary
In this study we set the basis of an alternative framework to replace the popular cost-loss ratio for the economic assessment of flood forecasting systems. The C-L ratio implicitly considers the decision maker to be risk-neutral, whereas it is rarely the case in real-life emergency situations. Instead of the cost-loss ratio, we propose using a utility function. We show that the decision-maker’s level of risk aversion is a crucial factor in the assessment of the economic value of flood forecasts.
In this study we set the basis of an alternative framework to replace the popular cost-loss...
