Articles | Volume 28, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024
Research article
 | 
05 Feb 2024
Research article |  | 05 Feb 2024

Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels

Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank

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Cited articles

Aitken, G., Beevers, L., Parry, S., and Facer-Childs, K.: Partitioning Model Uncertainty in Multi-member Multi-model Ensemble River Flow Climate Change Projections, Clim. Change, 176, 153, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03621-1, 2023. 
Anglian Water: Anglian Water DRAFT Drought Plan, https://www.anglianwater.co.uk/siteassets/household/about-us/aws-drought-plan-2022.pdf, last access: 4 January 2024. 
Arnell, N., Kay, A., Freeman, A., Rudd, A., and Lowe, J.: Changing climate risk in the UK: A multi-sectoral analysis using policy-relevant indicators, Climate Risk Management, 31, 100265, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100265, 2021. 
Ascott, M. J., Bloomfield, J. P., Karapanos, I., Jackson, C. R., Ward, R. S., McBride, A. B., Dobson, B., Kieboom, N., Holman, I. P., Van Loon, A. F., Crane, E. J., Brauns, B., Rodriguez-Yebra, A., and Upton, K. A.: Managing groundwater supplies subject to drought: perspectives on current status and future priorities from England (UK), Hydrogeol. J., 921–924, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02249-0, 2021. 
Barker, L. J., Hannaford, J., Parry, S., Smith, K. A., Tanguy, M., and Prudhomme, C.: Historic hydrological droughts 1891–2015: systematic characterisation for a diverse set of catchments across the UK, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4583–4602, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4583-2019, 2019. 
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Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
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