Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels

Parry, Simon; Mackay, Jonathan D.; Chitson, Thomas; Hannaford, Jamie; Magee, Eugene; Tanguy, Maliko; Bell, Victoria A.; Facer-Childs, Katie; Kay, Alison; Lane, Rosanna; Moore, Robert J.; Turner, Stephen; Wallbank, John

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024

Articles | Volume 28, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 28, issue 3

Research article

|

05 Feb 2024

Research article |

| 05 Feb 2024

Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels

Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024-supplement

Data sets

Gridded simulations of available precipitation (rainfall + snowmelt) for Great Britain, developed from observed data (1961-2018) and climate projections (1980-2080) R. A. Lane and A. L. Kay https://doi.org/10.5285/755e0369-f8db-4550-aabe-3f9c9fbcb93d

Hydrological projections for the UK, based on UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) data, from the Enhanced Future Flows and groundwater (eFLaG) project J. Hannaford et al. https://doi.org/10.5285/1bb90673-ad37-4679-90b9-0126109639a9

Short summary

We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.