Articles | Volume 28, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Feb 2024
Research article |
| 05 Feb 2024
| 05 Feb 2024
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Simon Parry
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Jonathan D. Mackay
British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, B15 2TT, UK
Thomas Chitson
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Irish Climate And Research UnitS (ICARUS), Maynooth, Co. Kildare, Ireland
Eugene Magee
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Maliko Tanguy
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Victoria A. Bell
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Katie Facer-Childs
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Alison Kay
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Rosanna Lane
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Robert J. Moore
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Stephen Turner
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
John Wallbank
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
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Cited
11 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Distribution, trends, and drivers of flash droughts in the United Kingdom I. Noguera et al. 10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025
- Temperate Soils Exposed to Drought—Key Processes, Impacts, Indicators, and Unknowns S. Reinsch et al. 10.3390/land13111759
- Characterisation of Groundwater Drought Using Distributed Modelling, Standardised Indices, and Principal Component Analysis V. Christelis et al. 10.1007/s11269-024-03997-4
- The effects of drought on biodiversity in UK river ecosystems: Drying rivers in a wet country R. Stubbington et al. 10.1002/wat2.1745
- ROBIN: Reference observatory of basins for international hydrological climate change detection S. Turner et al. 10.1038/s41597-025-04907-y
- Streamflow trends and flood frequency analysis: a regional study of the UK F. Di Nunno et al. 10.1007/s11356-024-34774-w
- Abrupt drought termination in the British–Irish Isles driven by high atmospheric vapour transport S. Parry et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acf145
- Propagation and Characteristics of Hydrometeorological Drought Under Changing Climate in Irish Catchments H. Meresa et al. 10.1029/2022JD038025
- Partitioning model uncertainty in multi-model ensemble river flow projections G. Aitken et al. 10.1007/s10584-023-03621-1
- Physically-based modelling of UK river flows under climate change B. Smith et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1468855
- How will climate change affect the spatial coherence of streamflow and groundwater droughts in Great Britain? M. Tanguy et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acd655
6 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Distribution, trends, and drivers of flash droughts in the United Kingdom I. Noguera et al. 10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025
- Temperate Soils Exposed to Drought—Key Processes, Impacts, Indicators, and Unknowns S. Reinsch et al. 10.3390/land13111759
- Characterisation of Groundwater Drought Using Distributed Modelling, Standardised Indices, and Principal Component Analysis V. Christelis et al. 10.1007/s11269-024-03997-4
- The effects of drought on biodiversity in UK river ecosystems: Drying rivers in a wet country R. Stubbington et al. 10.1002/wat2.1745
- ROBIN: Reference observatory of basins for international hydrological climate change detection S. Turner et al. 10.1038/s41597-025-04907-y
- Streamflow trends and flood frequency analysis: a regional study of the UK F. Di Nunno et al. 10.1007/s11356-024-34774-w
5 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Abrupt drought termination in the British–Irish Isles driven by high atmospheric vapour transport S. Parry et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acf145
- Propagation and Characteristics of Hydrometeorological Drought Under Changing Climate in Irish Catchments H. Meresa et al. 10.1029/2022JD038025
- Partitioning model uncertainty in multi-model ensemble river flow projections G. Aitken et al. 10.1007/s10584-023-03621-1
- Physically-based modelling of UK river flows under climate change B. Smith et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1468855
- How will climate change affect the spatial coherence of streamflow and groundwater droughts in Great Britain? M. Tanguy et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acd655
Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK...
