Articles | Volume 28, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Simon Parry
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Jonathan D. Mackay
British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, B15 2TT, UK
Thomas Chitson
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Irish Climate And Research UnitS (ICARUS), Maynooth, Co. Kildare, Ireland
Eugene Magee
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Maliko Tanguy
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Victoria A. Bell
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Katie Facer-Childs
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Alison Kay
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Rosanna Lane
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Robert J. Moore
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Stephen Turner
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
John Wallbank
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
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Cited
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A systematic review of climate change impacts on mine water resources using the UK as a case study C. Gillen et al.
- Temperate Soils Exposed to Drought—Key Processes, Impacts, Indicators, and Unknowns S. Reinsch et al.
- Adapting water resource systems to a changing future: challenges for UK hydrology in the 21st century J. Hall & A. Murgatroyd
- ROBIN: Reference observatory of basins for international hydrological climate change detection S. Turner et al.
- Oceanic drivers of UK summer droughts A. Chevuturi et al.
- Streamflow trends and flood frequency analysis: a regional study of the UK F. Di Nunno et al.
- Distribution, trends, and drivers of flash droughts in the United Kingdom I. Noguera et al.
- Highly Robust South Fork Zumbro River Flow Forecasting Based on Deep Temporal Modeling Y. Sun et al.
- Climate variability conceals emerging hydrological trends across Great Britain W. Chan et al.
- Comprehensive review of drought characteristics and intensification under climate change: implications for agriculture and water resources K. Disasa et al.
- Characterisation of Groundwater Drought Using Distributed Modelling, Standardised Indices, and Principal Component Analysis V. Christelis et al.
- The effects of drought on biodiversity in UK river ecosystems: Drying rivers in a wet country R. Stubbington et al.
- Have river flow droughts become more severe? A review of the evidence from the UK – a data-rich, temperate environment J. Hannaford et al.
- Climate change impact on hydrological droughts: Differences between two ensembles of regional climate projections across Great Britain R. Lane et al.
- Evolution of nonstationary hydrological drought characteristics in the UK under warming S. Jha et al.
- The effects of drought on Sphagnum moss species and the implications for hydrology in peatlands B. Keane et al.
- Federated learning based water streamflow forecasting via multi-sensor data fusion Y. Xia et al.
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A systematic review of climate change impacts on mine water resources using the UK as a case study C. Gillen et al.
- Temperate Soils Exposed to Drought—Key Processes, Impacts, Indicators, and Unknowns S. Reinsch et al.
- Adapting water resource systems to a changing future: challenges for UK hydrology in the 21st century J. Hall & A. Murgatroyd
- ROBIN: Reference observatory of basins for international hydrological climate change detection S. Turner et al.
- Oceanic drivers of UK summer droughts A. Chevuturi et al.
- Streamflow trends and flood frequency analysis: a regional study of the UK F. Di Nunno et al.
- Distribution, trends, and drivers of flash droughts in the United Kingdom I. Noguera et al.
- Highly Robust South Fork Zumbro River Flow Forecasting Based on Deep Temporal Modeling Y. Sun et al.
- Climate variability conceals emerging hydrological trends across Great Britain W. Chan et al.
- Comprehensive review of drought characteristics and intensification under climate change: implications for agriculture and water resources K. Disasa et al.
- Characterisation of Groundwater Drought Using Distributed Modelling, Standardised Indices, and Principal Component Analysis V. Christelis et al.
- The effects of drought on biodiversity in UK river ecosystems: Drying rivers in a wet country R. Stubbington et al.
- Have river flow droughts become more severe? A review of the evidence from the UK – a data-rich, temperate environment J. Hannaford et al.
- Climate change impact on hydrological droughts: Differences between two ensembles of regional climate projections across Great Britain R. Lane et al.
- Evolution of nonstationary hydrological drought characteristics in the UK under warming S. Jha et al.
- The effects of drought on Sphagnum moss species and the implications for hydrology in peatlands B. Keane et al.
- Federated learning based water streamflow forecasting via multi-sensor data fusion Y. Xia et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 18 May 2026
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK...