Articles | Volume 27, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1755-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1755-2023
Research article
 | 
04 May 2023
Research article |  | 04 May 2023

Hydrologic implications of projected changes in rain-on-snow melt for Great Lakes Basin watersheds

Daniel T. Myers, Darren L. Ficklin, and Scott M. Robeson

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Cited articles

Anderson, E. A.: National Weather Service river forecast system-snow accumulation and ablation model, in: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Technical Memorandum NWS-HYDR0-17, Washington, DC, USA, 229 pp., https://www.weather.gov/media/owp/oh/hrl/docs/22snow17.pdf (last access: 2 May 2023), 1973. 
Anderson, E. A.: Snow Accumulation and Ablation Model–SNOW-17, NWSRFS User Documentation, 61 pp., https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/wntsc/H&H/snow/AndersonSnow17.pdf (last access: 10 April 2021), 2006. 
Arnold, J. G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R. S., and Williams, J. R.: Large Area Hydrologic Modeling and Assessment Part I: Model Development, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 34, 73–89, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x, 1998. 
Arora, V. K., Scinocca, J. F., Boer, G. J., Christian, J. R., Denman, K. L., Flato, G. M., Kharin, V. V, Lee, W. G., and Merryfield, W. J.: Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046270, 2011. 
Beniston, M. and Stoffel, M.: Rain-on-snow events, floods and climate change in the Alps: Events may increase with warming up to 4 C and decrease thereafter, Sci. Total Environ., 571, 228–236, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.07.146, 2016. 
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Short summary
We projected climate change impacts to rain-on-snow (ROS) melt events in the Great Lakes Basin. Decreases in snowpack limit future ROS melt. Areas with mean winter/spring air temperatures near freezing are most sensitive to ROS changes. The projected proportion of total monthly snowmelt from ROS decreases. The timing for ROS melt is projected to be 2 weeks earlier by the mid-21st century and affects spring streamflow. This could affect freshwater resources management.