Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020
Research article
 | 
23 Dec 2020
Research article |  | 23 Dec 2020

Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UK

Andres Peñuela, Christopher Hutton, and Francesca Pianosi

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Cited articles

Alemu, E. T., Palmer, R. N., Polebitski, A., and Meaker, B.: Decision support system for optimizing reservoir operations using ensemble streamflow predictions, J. Water Res. Plan., 137, 72–82, 2010. 
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Anghileri, D., Voisin, N., Castelletti, A., Pianosi, F., Nijssen, B., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Value of long-term streamflow forecasts to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated river catchments, Water Resour. Res., 52, 4209–4225, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017864, 2016. 
Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B., and Pappenberger, F.: Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018. 
Bazile, R., Boucher, M.-A., Perreault, L., and Leconte, R.: Verification of ECMWF System 4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5747–5762, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017, 2017. 
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Short summary
In this paper we evaluate the potential use of seasonal weather forecasts to improve reservoir operation in a UK water supply system. We found that the use of seasonal forecasts can improve the efficiency of reservoir operation but only if the forecast uncertainty is explicitly considered. We also found the degree of efficiency improvement is strongly affected by the decision maker priorities and the hydrological conditions.
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